AMD CPU speculation... and expert conjecture

[gamerk316]

Would like to remind everyone: 3dMark = Best Case.

 

[esrever]

Best case in comparison to what?

 

[juanrga]

@faye__kane, From what I understand, they're developing a new architecture as it is. Why not throw something on that's better than their competition?

Because you need years of research, lots of money, and engineers. You cannot surpass competition by dropping R&D, closing centers, and firing engineers.

Interesting news around Carrizzo.

Sounds like it wasn't all gloom and doom after all. Now we just need some benchies. It's a pity though there are no news about desktop.

The SoC integration, the GPU, the frequency barrier, HDL... all that is as expected and commented in this same thread, but Excavator is poor than expected. Only 5% IPC gains!

Neither Excavator is the game changer that some expected nor Carrizo will change anything: AMD will continue loosing market share and money. Any bet?

 

[truegenius]

The SoC integration, the GPU, the frequency barrier, HDL... all that is as expected and commented in this same thread, but Excavator is poor than expected. Only 5% IPC gains!

Neither Excavator is the game changer that some expected nor Carrizo will change anything: AMD will continue loosing market share and money. Any bet?

if this remains the trend then it looks like they can't do better cpu (ipc better than sandy per core) and better gpu
wondering if i should bet on their gaming dgpu killer apu by 2020 or should i bet on their existence and product's significance enough to keep competition's price low

 

[juanrga]

The SoC integration, the GPU, the frequency barrier, HDL... all that is as expected and commented in this same thread, but Excavator is poor than expected. Only 5% IPC gains!

Neither Excavator is the game changer that some expected nor Carrizo will change anything: AMD will continue loosing market share and money. Any bet?

if this remains the trend then it looks like they can't do better cpu (ipc better than sandy per core) and better gpu
wondering if i should bet on their gaming dgpu killer apu by 2020 or should i bet on their existence and product's significance enough to keep competition's price low

I corrected your misattribution of my words to gamerk.

I am still confident that Zen IPC will be between Ivy and Haswell. Excavator is a disappointment because

• 
  ■ It relies on bad Bulldozer base. Bulldozer was optimized for throughput not latency. Extracting bigger IPC gains requires re-designing key parts.
  ■ AMD lacks the resources/time to re-design and is devoting resources to Zen/K12.
  ■ AMD is stuck to 28nm. whereas competition is at 14nm.
  ■ Desktop is no longer relevant. The money is on mobile. Thus AMD optimized excavator for mobile: less size, less power consumption, less cost.

Overall (i.e. considering GPU and Soc improvements) Carrizo mobile is better than Kaveri mobile. The problem for AMD is that Carrizo is not enough. We will see most laptops use Intel Broadwell designs. Moreover, AMD has nothing for rest of markets except irrelevant Kaveri refreshes and old Piledriver FX series. Thus the CPU division of AMD will continue loosing money and market share.

Regarding the future 2020 APUs from AMD. They are nothing special when compared to the designs of Intel, Nvidia, and others for the same period.

Price low is a good strategy if AMD want to transform in the new VIA.

 

[logainofhades]

@faye__kane, From what I understand, they're developing a new architecture as it is. Why not throw something on that's better than their competition? Maybe offer a bit more future proofing. I could see them doing 256-bit instead how ever, as 512 is a large number. Haha! And yeah, But I think we should remember, if AMD was in the same position Intel was in, they'd be doing the same thing. I have nothing against Intel, my next upgrade might be one of their CPUs. (Skyrim framerate dips get annoying haha). however, my current rig will be put to life in a steam box mod I am scheming up.

Yea, for Skyrim, even an i3 is a better chip, as it is such a poorly threaded title.

 

[juanrga]

I think this is the better characterization of Carrizo: "The x86 notebook processor that thinks it's a GPU"

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2015/02/24/amd_carrizo/

Only 16% of the die is x86 compute; the rest is graphics, video acceleration and IO. Just saying it...

 

[de5_Roy]

Exclusive: DirectX 12 Will Allow Multi-GPU Between GeForce And Radeon
http://www.tomshardware.com/news/microsoft-directx12-amd-nvidia,28606.html
2GPUs1Case
edit2: bonus flambeit
Report: OS X, iOS, Linux were the most vulnerable OSes in 2014
http://techreport.com/news/27855/report-os-x-ios-linux-were-the-most-vulnerable-oses-in-2014

 

[Cazalan]

The cheapest Broadwell i3 is $275 so that gives AMD a lot of room to work in.

 

[cemerian]

Exclusive: DirectX 12 Will Allow Multi-GPU Between GeForce And Radeon
http://www.tomshardware.com/news/microsoft-directx12-amd-nvidia,28606.html
2GPUs1Case
edit2: bonus flambeit
Report: OS X, iOS, Linux were the most vulnerable OSes in 2014
http://techreport.com/news/27855/report-os-x-ios-linux-were-the-most-vulnerable-oses-in-2014

there are the magic words in there, if developer take advantage of, so in other words it wont happens, just look at how poor sli and crosfire support is now, do you really think it would change, though would be nice if i could once again use amd card for rendering and nvidia gpu for physx, would make a cheaper upgrade

 

[logainofhades]

The cheapest Broadwell i3 is $275 so that gives AMD a lot of room to work in.

I haven't seen a Broadwell CPU for sale anywhere.

 

[truegenius]

Exclusive: DirectX 12 Will Allow Multi-GPU Between GeForce And Radeon
http://www.tomshardware.com/news/microsoft-directx12-amd-nvidia,28606.html
2GPUs1Case

 

[de5_Roy]

The cheapest Broadwell i3 is $275 so that gives AMD a lot of room to work in.

I haven't seen a Broadwell CPU for sale anywhere.

i think that's recommended customer price or oem price or something for every 1000 pcs of mobile core i3. these processors won't show up in retail shops. i doubt carrizo will either. but that doesn't mean amd can't undercut intel in that segment. imo they can very well undercut intel in terms of pricing.

@TG: yet another reason windows 10 will fly off teh shelves even if it's a 40-60 release.

 

[blackkstar]

@faye__kane, From what I understand, they're developing a new architecture as it is. Why not throw something on that's better than their competition? Maybe offer a bit more future proofing. I could see them doing 256-bit instead how ever, as 512 is a large number. Haha! And yeah, But I think we should remember, if AMD was in the same position Intel was in, they'd be doing the same thing. I have nothing against Intel, my next upgrade might be one of their CPUs. (Skyrim framerate dips get annoying haha). however, my current rig will be put to life in a steam box mod I am scheming up.

Yea, for Skyrim, even an i3 is a better chip, as it is such a poorly threaded title.

Skyrim uses a lot of legacy instructions. I don't know how much they've patched out over time, but when it released, it was a whole lot of x87 instructions. The same instructions that make AMD look awful in SuperPi.

x87 was deprecated a long time ago. Then again it raises the issue of if you want to spend the money to support those sorts of applications or how important they are to you. AMD has traditionally struggled with x87 instructions, and considering they have been suggested too not be used for years and years, I don't blame them for not putting in serious effort to fixing x87 instructions.

But running legacy instructions is a common thing in Windows, so it's not like AMD should get a free pass for ignoring it so much. I've always advocated this before, but there's a large difference between how a CPU performance in Windows and what it's actually capable of. But if you're going to use Windows 100% of the time, what the chip is capable of is sadly irrelevant.

 

[jdwii]

@faye__kane, From what I understand, they're developing a new architecture as it is. Why not throw something on that's better than their competition? Maybe offer a bit more future proofing. I could see them doing 256-bit instead how ever, as 512 is a large number. Haha! And yeah, But I think we should remember, if AMD was in the same position Intel was in, they'd be doing the same thing. I have nothing against Intel, my next upgrade might be one of their CPUs. (Skyrim framerate dips get annoying haha). however, my current rig will be put to life in a steam box mod I am scheming up.

Yea, for Skyrim, even an i3 is a better chip, as it is such a poorly threaded title.

Skyrim uses a lot of legacy instructions. I don't know how much they've patched out over time, but when it released, it was a whole lot of x87 instructions. The same instructions that make AMD look awful in SuperPi.

x87 was deprecated a long time ago. Then again it raises the issue of if you want to spend the money to support those sorts of applications or how important they are to you. AMD has traditionally struggled with x87 instructions, and considering they have been suggested too not be used for years and years, I don't blame them for not putting in serious effort to fixing x87 instructions.

But running legacy instructions is a common thing in Windows, so it's not like AMD should get a free pass for ignoring it so much. I've always advocated this before, but there's a large difference between how a CPU performance in Windows and what it's actually capable of. But if you're going to use Windows 100% of the time, what the chip is capable of is sadly irrelevant.

What? Highly inaccurate. For one thing even if skyrim worked on OSX or linux it would still be using the same instruction set. Depends on the software you use not just the OS. Not sure about linux fanboys but i can hear some crazy stuff on their end. During college i heard some troll claim he can get triple the fps in minecraft on linux i was like WHAT. I'm looking forward to OpenGl next however hoping it really has similar features and performance of 12.

 

[juanrga]

Spoiler

@faye__kane, From what I understand, they're developing a new architecture as it is. Why not throw something on that's better than their competition? Maybe offer a bit more future proofing. I could see them doing 256-bit instead how ever, as 512 is a large number. Haha! And yeah, But I think we should remember, if AMD was in the same position Intel was in, they'd be doing the same thing. I have nothing against Intel, my next upgrade might be one of their CPUs. (Skyrim framerate dips get annoying haha). however, my current rig will be put to life in a steam box mod I am scheming up.

Yea, for Skyrim, even an i3 is a better chip, as it is such a poorly threaded title.

Skyrim uses a lot of legacy instructions. I don't know how much they've patched out over time, but when it released, it was a whole lot of x87 instructions. The same instructions that make AMD look awful in SuperPi.

x87 was deprecated a long time ago. Then again it raises the issue of if you want to spend the money to support those sorts of applications or how important they are to you. AMD has traditionally struggled with x87 instructions, and considering they have been suggested too not be used for years and years, I don't blame them for not putting in serious effort to fixing x87 instructions.

But running legacy instructions is a common thing in Windows, so it's not like AMD should get a free pass for ignoring it so much. I've always advocated this before, but there's a large difference between how a CPU performance in Windows and what it's actually capable of. But if you're going to use Windows 100% of the time, what the chip is capable of is sadly irrelevant.

Why do some people always attribute AMD problems/fiascos to everyone else (developers, foundries, standard bodies, OSes, and of course the evil review sites)? If an i3 runs circles around a FX-8000 series on Skyrim the problem is on AMD poor implementation of x87 and weak single thread performance, the problem is not on developers because the i3 run fine.

 

[juanrga]

Carrizo mobile models:

FX-8800P
A10-8700P
A8-8600P
A6-8500P
PRO FX-8800B
PRO A10-8700B
PRO A8-8600B
PRO A6-8500B
RX-418GD
RX-216GD

 

[noob2222]

Interesting news around Carrizzo.

Sounds like it wasn't all gloom and doom after all. Now we just need some benchies. It's a pity though there are no news about desktop.

Cheers!

in order make 14nm feasible, AMD had to address power consumption before making the transition. its the same tick-tock model intel is now doing, reduce power, then shrink it and hope it still works. Zen is a long way off, im more skeptical of whether AMD can survive till it shows up. All their eggs look to be in one basket for the future, one that's over a year out. till then ...

 

[de5_Roy]

Samsung showcases world’s first 10nm FinFET manufacturing process for mobile chips
http://vr-zone.com/articles/samsung-showcases-worlds-first-10nm-finfet-manufacturing-process-for-mobile-chips/87550.html

Nvidia gains 3% in Q4 from last quarter, Intel dropped 4%, AMD slipped 7%
http://jonpeddie.com/publications/market_watch/

 

[Cazalan]

in order make 14nm feasible, AMD had to address power consumption before making the transition. its the same tick-tock model intel is now doing, reduce power, then shrink it and hope it still works. Zen is a long way off, im more skeptical of whether AMD can survive till it shows up. All their eggs look to be in one basket for the future, one that's over a year out. till then ...

Unless the asset bubble bursts then AMD can survive a while. We're at record highs for the DOW and NASDAQ meaning there is so much fake money pumped in the stock market right now. However when that bursts its going to make 2008 look like a walk in the park.

AMD has a B in cash and interest rates can't really get lower.

 

[de5_Roy]

AMD previews Carrizo APU, offers insights into power savings
Excavator cores and other innovations to help improve efficiency
http://techreport.com/review/27853/amd-previews-carrizo-apu-offers-insights-into-power-savings

 

[FALC0N]

The SoC integration, the GPU, the frequency barrier, HDL... all that is as expected and commented in this same thread, but Excavator is poor than expected. Only 5% IPC gains!

Neither Excavator is the game changer that some expected nor Carrizo will change anything: AMD will continue loosing market share and money. Any bet?

If you were expecting much more than this, then you were not paying attention. Excavator did exactly what Kavari did, which is exactly what AMD wants it to do, target the mobile market.

I don't see any reason to think that AMD will lose market share or money based on this. It improves their position in the volume mobile markets they are targeting.

 

[FALC0N]

Overall (i.e. considering GPU and Soc improvements) Carrizo mobile is better than Kaveri mobile. The problem for AMD is that Carrizo is not enough. We will see most laptops use Intel Broadwell designs.

That may or may not be the case, but the fact is AMD is much more competitive on mobile than on desktop. If they lose share in the mobile market at this point, it wont be because their offerings are weak.

 

[FALC0N]

Why do some people always attribute AMD problems/fiascos to everyone else (developers, foundries, standard bodies, OSes, and of course the evil review sites)? If an i3 runs circles around a FX-8000 series on Skyrim the problem is on AMD poor implementation of x87 and weak single thread performance, the problem is not on developers because the i3 run fine.

The "I3 runs fine" argument is quite weak. It does NOT prove the developers are not at fault simply because the I3 "runs fine". If your leaving that much performance on the table, you are doing a lazy job of coding. And that does fall on the developer.

 

[FALC0N]

in order make 14nm feasible, AMD had to address power consumption before making the transition. its the same tick-tock model intel is now doing, reduce power, then shrink it and hope it still works. Zen is a long way off, im more skeptical of whether AMD can survive till it shows up. All their eggs look to be in one basket for the future, one that's over a year out. till then ...

AMD is in little danger at the moment. In fact, they are in their best position in almost a decade. Their strategy to diversify has definitely worked so far. The only way you could draw the conclusion that they are in trouble would be to focus exclusively on the desktop market, to the exclusion of everything else.