AMD CPU speculation... and expert conjecture

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Noise levels are a big problem for gaming rigs. Nothing ruins your experience like hearing the high whining sound of your GPU's. It's the entire reason I went WC, just got tired of hearing my GTX 285's while I was playing something. People who are used to it won't realize how much it's hurting them until they play on a nice rig that doesn't make sound.

Lets see what ASUS ROG does with the card.
 


didn't take EK long to release the heatsink for the 290x.

http://www.techpowerup.com/192982/ek-debuts-water-block-for-amd-radeon-r9-290x.html

 


Well, 0.7 is more than double than 0.3. Look at the almost inexistent market share of 7990 and rumours:

Weak demand and stiff competition from NVIDIA's offerings could lead to AMD discontinuing its flagship graphics card, the Radeon HD 7990

Also yesterday AMD is not today AMD, the market has also changed: desktop is dropping and what would be feasible product yesterday is no more today.



Look at Intel; they are not fabricating single-core CPUs and there is no modules involved in their decision.

You are inverting the cause-effect order here. It is not that AMD doesn't fabricate single-cores because the module is dual, but that they designed a dual-core module because AMD considered dual to be the minimum: aka they already decided don't fabricate single-cores by questions of market share.



Now continue the argument, link with the bold part in above quote and you almost get it.

Consider the dies that didn't pass FX6 qualifications cost $100M. Take those $100M and add the cost to use those dies for FX4 chips; this includes: fabrication (including printing FX4xxx labels on the chip), additional quality testing, packaging, storing, shipping to distributors... The cost also includes the cost of maintaining the inventory, custom taxes for international shipping, web pages for the product, and so on. Imagine the whole cost are another $100M.

Now assume during an instant that nobody want to buy FX4 series chips, if you are fabricating them you are loosing $200M and it is better if you stop at the splitting point where some dies didn't pass FX6 qualifications and put in the trash those dies.
 


More or less AMD's Steamroller will be on the same performance tie as Intel's Sandy Bridge. SR 4C @4GHz ~ SB 4C @3.2GHz


 


The interesting part is this

While TSMC had opened their 28 nm HKMG nearly two years ago, it was less than a year ago that GF opened their 28 nm line to customers. So far the designs from GF’s 28 nm have essentially been smaller SOCs from players like MediaTek and Rockchip. AMD’s Kaveri APU has been delayed from what looks to be fabrication issues rather than design issues. We do not expect to see Kaveri in mass quantities until Q1 2014. GF has been behind the times when it comes to process technology, but some interesting things have come up that could change the landscape.

SOI Strikes Again

Who all thought that SOI was dead after AMD decided to stop using it after moving away from GF’s 32 nm PD-SOI process? Well, more than a few, but the truth is SOI is a very handy technology that is used in many other products, one of which is high speed RF switching applications. AMD has been utilizing PD-SOI for many generations of parts. Partially-Depleted is an older and well understood substrate that has done very well for AMD. Unfortunately for AMD, 32 nm was really the last gasp for PD-SOI. Going below that size, the electrical characteristics of PD-SOI are not that much better than bulk silicon. Though there is a positive difference, it is not enough to justify the 10% to 15% increase in wafer costs and slightly more complex manufacturing process.

[...]

FD-SOI wafers are not being mass produced at this time, though production can be ramped up fairly quickly. GF has yet to implement 28 nm FD-SOI at any of their fabs and the timeline for manufacturing products on this process has yet to be determined (or at least released to the general public).

[...]

GF has only now started mass production of the latest generation of AMD APUs based on 28 nm. The previous Kabini APUs were all produced by TSMC on their 28 nm process.

Which confirms my claim that Kaveri is being made at 28nm bulk. Kaveri is not SOI as some 'well-informed' posters repeat again and again here 😀

Regarding the article conclusions about Glofo. I disagree. I am pessimistic about the future of FD-SOI. I doubt any main chip-maker will chose 14nm FD-SOI.
 

why would i look at intel? their cpu design is different and not even remotely related to your claim.

underline mine: wrong interpretation, again. you're making up imaginary causes for engineering and architectural decisions and trying to divert. core-marketshare pie chart didn't dictate amd making the module dual core (i.e. capable of executing two threads), it was to build the uarch modular and scalable while sharing resources within the module and save cost.
 
Is it just me or is there a lot of differences on the reviews?
Tom's and Anand put it pretty high however other sites and some youtubers (OC3D TV, LinusTechTips) It's on bar or below 780, so I'm not really sure about this.
 


Because I was explaining you why neither Intel nor AMD are making single cores anymore. The reason is not related to Bulldozer modules.



Nope. Engineering decisions are tied to market. This is business ok? If the market share for single cores was of 95% then AMD had never introduce dual-core modules. They introduced modules for saving costs and for scaling above four cores whereas maintaining acceptable sizes.

I don't understand why you insist on believing that AMD is not making single cores due to the modular design prohibiting them. Are you aware that AMD jaguar is not based in modules?

Using your logic AMD would be releasing single core jaguar chips.

Returning to the origin of this discussion: AMD is not releasing FX 8-core Steamroller because there is no enough market for that.
 

wow. you're the one mentioned intel. i did not insist, in any way. your explanation was wrong anyway.


this is outright bullcrap. because single core has majority when the whole market is taken into account. amd (and intel) introduced their dual cores when single core had vast majority, i forgot how much. even if single core had 95% marketshare as in your scenario, physics, drive for more performance would eventually drive everyone, not just amd, to multicore, not just dual core. and it did so. you made a very, very poor argument here, by ignoring vital factors.

not for scaling above six cores. for scaling and modularity, period. i don't know why this keeps going over your head - they chose dual core (i.e. executing 2 threads) module because it was the right engineering decision. more than 2 woulda cut into r&d and cost, less than 2 woulda drive up power draw and cost.

orly. you need take a look at the jaguar architecture again. at least, now i know that you don't understand.

again with the diversion...
by 'my logic'? please stop making up 'my logic'. my point was that kaveri is dual module not because of marketshare but because it was designed that way.

that's not even the origin. i only replied when you misinterpreted the core-marketshare pie chart.
 


When you introduce a new product its market share is zero before introducing it. This is a triviality that someone mentioned before and that I already replied a pair of posts ago.



For scaling above six cores. Six-core non-modular designs existed before, AMD couldn't release 8/12/16-core Bulldozer chips without the new module design and they did need those cores for competing with Intel.



Jaguar != bulldozer. There is no modules in jaguar.



The original point was the explanation of why AMD is not releasing 3M/4M/6M/8M Steamroller chips. There is no enough market for them.

I then tried to use the fact that AMD (neither Intel) are fabricating single-core chips as illustration of how market share affects chip design.

You took that, avoided the main point and then went with a right but trivial argument that Kaveri is not single core because a module has two cores. Sure, but the module dual-core design was introduced because AMD was not going to make single cores anymore...
 


Because we know (we measure it) that the shared decoder in a Bulldozer/Piledriver module introduces about 20% performance penalization. Steamroller doubling the decoder per module recovers that 20%. That is why we expect at least ~20% performance gain. Depending of further modifications made to the architecture (better cache, improved integer units, improved memory controller...) we could see even a 40% gain, but I think this is unlikely and that 20% is a more realistic measure

Let us see.
 


Are you aware that Kaveri CPU uses Steamroller?
 


I seriously think this part is entirely rubbish. There is most certainly a market for it, and it is pretty substantial; however, they're losing a great deal of that business to the 4770k unless they act sooner than later.

I suppose you would argue there is no market for the 4770k then? 4c/8t chips are the same thing as 8c/8t chips in the grander scheme of things.

The 8 core AMD chips are aiming at the 4 core market...last time I checked, that market share had actually passed 50% of the PC market in the US. Considering every house has at least one PC, that means there are at minimum 175 million quad core PCs in the US alone. Think they couldn't take some of the 4 core i7 business with a hot 8 core that could keep up at single thread workloads? I know they would seriously compete...

 
 
The "Modules" are 1 core + 0.6 of a core, right? Just like Intel's are 1 core + 0.3 of a core, right?

In my own vision, going past the blur PR and tech documentation gives us, FX8xxx are still glorified 4 core CPUs, just like Intel's. DO NOT FORGET.

Is there market for a 4 core + something? Yes there is.

Cheers!
 

it's not a trivial matter. the products are introduced to drive forward and because the industry and customers' demands. that's how from zero marketshare it becomes substantial.

lol. you conveniently forgot multi chip module cpus e.g. magny cours. only problem is that those would be too costly for consumers. but those did compete against intel.

you're the one mentioned jaguar. now you're the one trying to stir up a side-argument. poor attempt at diversion.
and there are modules in jaguar. it depends on what you call module. the lowest block is 2/4 cores with shared cache - that's jaguar's module.

selective amnesia? here's your post:

to reply to your 'original point'(!) (post-selective-amnesia) - amd's product launch hasn't even started, yet you claim amd Is Not releasing such cpus. i already said i am not gonna touch on that...or try to stay away from it as much as possible, lol.

i ignored it before because it was wrong statement. amd and intel do not fabricate new single core cpus simply because single core performance have hit a limit. marketshare is not even the top reason. the real reasons are laws of physics and demand for higher performance and above all, money.

i already said i won't talk about (or try not to talk) sr cpus as i have too little information on them. i already posted your 'main point' since you seem to have made yourself forget that. amd's not making single cores do not have anything to do with marketshare, read the paragraph above. my argument was not "Kaveri is not single core because a module has two cores". nowhere near that. shows how much you paid attention to the text.
 


I agree with this viewpoint.
 


You cannot translate market share from a company to another. A company that is economically healthy can afford niche markets, whereas a company who was in the red some months ago cannot.

i7-4770k and FX-8350 are not mainstream. Stop from pretending that 50% of the market would be interested in a FD-SOI 5GHz 8-core FX Steamroller.


 


It's not that simple. FX8 parts do have 8 cores, they're just not as strong as Intel cores because it's 2 ALU vs 3 ALU. That gives Intel cores an advantage.

In retrospect AMD could have made the "module" a single 4 ALU core. That would have been better for traditional PC workloads.
 
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