AMD's Future Chips & SoC's: News, Info & Rumours.

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For graphical duties, yes; not stating otherwise since I have very little experience with DX. I do know OGL has been able to do renderer threading since a long long time ago though; never really known what it implies.

And there's been a change in the programming industry to move (or embrace?) threading as of late. The Linux kernel has always been thread friendly and their schedulers have been MT aware for ages; I don't know about Apple, but I would imagine the FreeBSD inheritance would make them MT aware as well. Microsoft has been the stepping stone for many and the clunky APIs they offer to do effective threading in Windows. I know for a fact that handling threads in Windows is way more complicated that in a pure C/C++ (or even Java) development environment; the API overhead (which I agree with you) is stupid big. But that being said, I've seen they're working towards making it less bloated as of late.

Some friends that do .NET stuff have been talking about how they're looking forward to the new stuff (I have no idea on details), but they sound like they'll get a lot of goodies form MS to simplify the threading process of Windows applications. Maybe it's already out there, haha.

Cheers!
 


lol threadripper, so no more optys? Name sounds like they are targeting gaming enthusiast market again 😀
 


And here we go again on the hype train. The author of that article didn't even check that the X5650 is an 6C (not 12C) ancient Xeon

http://ark.intel.com/products/47922

Also ThreadRipper and RyZen chips are overclocked.
 




Indeed. Lisa Su finally confirms Zen mobile is delayed to 2018:

As we add Ryzen to the roadmap for desktop this year and notebook next year,
Click to expand...

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4075407-advanced-micro-devices-amd-presents-jpmorgan-technology-media-and-telecom-conference?
 


She doesn't mentions specifically laptops at all in this conversation. I don't know why you reference it? The previous reference you have is from 2015....

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) Presents at JPMorgan Technology, Media & Telecom Conference (Transcript)

May.22.17 | About: Advanced Micro (AMD)
Start Time: 10:40

End Time: 11:16

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD)

JPMorgan Technology, Media & Telecom Conference

May 22, 2017, 10:40 AM ET

Executives

Lisa Su - President and CEO

Analysts

Harlan Sur - JPMorgan

Harlan Sur - JPMorgan

Okay. Why don’t we go ahead and get started. Good morning. And again, thank you for attending the first day of JPMorgan’s 45th Annual TMT Conference. My name is Harlan Sur. I’m the semiconductor and semiconductor capital equipment analyst here at the firm.

I’m very pleased to have Lisa Su, President and Chief Executive Officer at Advanced Micro Devices here with me this morning. What I’ve asked Lisa to do is to give us a brief overview of the team’s Analyst Day which was just held last week and then we’ll kickoff the Q&A. So, Lisa, thank you very much for joining us this morning.

I’ll turn it over to you.

Lisa Su

Very good. Thank you, Harlan. It’s a pleasure to be here this morning. So just a little bit of an overview. We held our Financial Analyst Day last week and the purpose of that Analyst Day was really to give a four-year roadmap on where we’re taking the company from a market perspective, from a product perspective, as well as from a financial roadmap perspective. And I’ll say we’re very excited about the markets that we’re in. We believe that between PCs, immersive and datacenter, it’s over a $60 billion TAM and growing over the next three to four years.

We think we are very well positioned in the market with our products with our Zen-based family of processors on both the PC side and then very soon to launch in the datacenter side, and we’re also very excited about our Vega graphics set of processors that will launch over the next couple of months as well. So it was really a product filled day but we also updated our financial model and took our financial model out through 2020 with the idea that we would be able to accomplish double-digit revenue growth over the four year horizon that we would be able to expand our gross margins as well as return a strong earnings per share growth overall.

Harlan Sur - JPMorgan

Great. Thank you. Thank you for joining us this morning. You took over as CEO around two and a half year ago at a time when AMD’s products in PCs and graphics had become less competitive amidst a declining PC market. Following a challenging 2015, you and the team – the performance improved in 2016. The team met/exceeded expectations put forth at the same time last year. You’re targeting positive net income growth and revenue growth this year. Just kind of walk us through the key steps that you’ve took, some of the changes that you made since taking over as CEO that has led to the turnaround? My sense is that – not my sense, my view is that a strong part of it has to do with execution and focus but would love to get your views?

Lisa Su

Yes, absolutely. So AMD has always had an incredible set of IP when you look at high-performance processors. What I’ve really tried to do over the past couple of years was actually focus on the things that we do best. So our core strength is in high-performance computing. We were doing a bunch of other things. We were doing some tablet-based processors, we were doing some dense server systems and those were not really our core strength.

And so by doubling down on our core really focusing on product execution and financial execution, we made good progress in 2016 returning the company back to revenue growth and executing on our products. But it’s fair to say that we still have quite a bit of our product cycle to play out, and 2017 is a very important year for us in terms of product launches.

Harlan Sur - JPMorgan

So it was good to see last week you and the team addressed the sustainability of the technology leadership. You talked about some of the share gains, the accomplishments and you’ve provided us with things like a roadmap of process technology usage through 2020. As we and as investors contemplate an improved product roadmap across segments this year, what gives you confidence that the team can sustain the share momentum across segments looking out over the next few years?

Edit: Additional information "Later on in Q3 we will see an important one, Ryzen Mobile aka Banded Kestrel which we told you about last September. This is where AMD makes both money and marketshare, assuming the part is any good. This again isn’t to say it won’t be, just with the way it was messaged we can’t tell. Given AMD’s marketshare in the mobile, and more importantly corporate mobile space, the Ryzen Mobile APU has to take marketshare."
https://semiaccurate.com/2017/05/22/amd-talks-threadripper-ryzen-mobile-ryzen-pro/
 
SM002514.jpg


Exhibition date & time TWTC Hall 1, Nangang Exhibition Center Hall 1, and TICC：
May 30-June2（Tuesday - Friday）9：30~18：00
June 3（Saturday）09：30~16：00
TWTC Hall 3 (InnoVEX)：
May 30-June1（Tuesday - Thursday）9：30~18：00
Visitors' admission policies TWTC Hall 1,
Nangang Exhibition Center Hall 1 May 30-31 Admit only international visitors, IPOs, and investors
June 1-2 Admit only international visitors, IPOs, investors, and local ICT professionals
June 3 1. All of the above
2. Open to members of the general public over 18 years of age. Tickets are NT$ 200 each and will be available for sale only on June 3rd, 9:30 – 14:00
InnoVEX May30-June1 1. Admitted with COMPUTEX badges
2. Tickets for the general public are sold
May 15~ June 1
Single-day tickets are NT $ 200 each
3-day tickets are NT$500 each
Ticket link：www.accupass.com/go/innovex2017
※Tickets are not sold onsite
Gaming & VR
located on the 4th floor of Taipei Nangang Exhibition Center Hall 1, showcasing trendy and extremely efficient gaming products such as notebooks, PCs, display cards and other gaming peripherals, which as the same time also bring ultimate experience in virtual reality.
May 30 13:00-17:00 Future Technology Trends
May 31 8:30 – 12:00 IoT+
May 31 13:30 – 17:00 Artificial Intelligence
June 1 9:30 – 12:00 Innovations & Startups

https://www.computextaipei.com.tw/en_US/index.html
 


She mentions notebooks in the part I quoted above. I can provide a larger quotation of the relevant part devoted to mobile (I bolded):

Harlan Sur - JPMorgan

So let's sort of do the deep dive now, so let's focus on the PC client business. You and the team discussed a $30 billion TAM today, $20 billion TAM looking through 2020. Prior to the Ryzen launch, you addressed about 21% of the TAM in terms of revenues and by the middle of next year with commercial mobile Ryzen and you'll be able to address the entire TAM with incremental opportunity for premium desktop at 9 billion of SAM, premium mobile at 10 billion of SAM. And so at a high level, how should we think or how should we and investors think about AMD's potential share gains this year with desktop, next year with mobile?

Lisa Su

Yes. So the PC market again is a very good market. It has been volatile in recent years but it's a 250 million unit TAM, $28 billion to $30 billion. We actually like the market very much. The key for us is having a competitive CPU. If you look at the PC market over the last four or five years, we've had actually very competitive graphics and integrated graphics but our CPU was not as competitive as we'd liked.

As we add Ryzen to the roadmap for desktop this year and notebook next year, we are actually very optimistic about returning to historical share levels for AMD. And more importantly than just unit share, we believe there's an opportunity to ramp our revenue share because we're playing throughout the entire stack including some of the premium price points competing against Core i5 and Core i7 which is where a lot of the profit pool is in the PC market.
Click to expand...

This quotation is in page 2 of the article I cited.
 


Okay, I found it. That is interesting. Sounds like she made a miss step to me. From the chart Ryzen mobile pro is slotted for Q1 next year. I watched the Analyst day coverage, and it is supposed to come out 2nd half of this year. I found a YouTube video of the coverage. You can watch it for yourself. Start at 21:00 min. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=590h3XIUfHg
 
Here's an article from The Next Platform’s Timothy Prickett Morgan discussing the “EPYC” server chip..
This is another good article from 'Mr Morgan' an it is well worth a read, check it out here:
https://www.nextplatform.com/2017/05/17/amd-disrupts-two-socket-server-status-quo/

Also AMD just trademarked some new exotic names in march gone including Kyzen, Aragon, Promethean & CoreAmp:
http://www.tweaktown.com/news/57723/amd-trademarks-kyzen-aragon-promethean-coreamp/index.html
 
it seems that even the success of Ryzen chips, AMD is strugling with financial problems and can not allocate enough budget on all the areas. with the newly announced intel core series, AMD will have rough times again. Although the gap betwen AMD and intel decreased the new core chips can change the rules of the game against AMD. depending on the price and performance of new core chips ofcourse. However AMD haven't fully recovered and this new chip can force them once again a price war where AMD lacks the resources.
 


Which was kind of my concern. Can AMD really afford to drop prices on their just released CPU lineup? That tells me they are both worried about Intel, and not moving as much product as they expected.
 
AMD can't engage in a full fledged price war with Intel, just because Intel will flex more muscle than just cutting prices. Yes, I am implying they'll play dirty (un-lawful maybe), because we all know they will in one way or another. They have plenty of cash to sit on this and justify it (or spin it) as an additional expense to lower prices where AMD can't reach if necessary. Plus they have A1 credit rating as a company, so they can even cash-in on the side to go lower. AMD can't do that.

Cheers!
 


But Intel hasn't done this yet. Which raises the question: Why is AMD doing the price drop first?

My read: AMD is selling less then they thought (hoped).
 


I don't disagree. I hope it's another reason though.

Best case scenario, they are preparing themselves for the squeeze in the best way they can and just maximized profit on those parts before hand.

Cheers!
 
The reduction in price is in response to sales. I believe, partly, is because of the X and non X variants are so close together in performance! The cat is long out of the bag now on performance gains of overclocking. And the other part is to make it even more attractive buy compared to Intel, so they can show strong sales. What is most telling is Intel's response to Threadripper! They are definitely concerned about AMD's market share!
 
they may also had some breakthrough in the production process. they may have increased the yield, increasing the effectiveness of the process. In fact during the initial release they may have some issues with the production which caused them to increase the price, and this issues might solved ahead of schedule maybe. Just guessing, not an expert.
 


Not likely. If that's the case, then I proclaim AMD the worst run business in history. You NEVER drop prices if your product is selling to your expectations. Just because you CAN drop prices doesn't mean you do so; that's bad for the bottom line.

So one of two things is happening here:

1: AMD is REALLY worried about Intel's i9 lineup, and is trying to entice as many individuals into the AMD ecosystem as possible before i9 launches.

2: AMD is selling less then they expected, necessitating a price drop.
 
The IBM Research Alliance (IBM, Samsung and Glofo) announce they have renewed their partnership in process development.. with 5nm GAAFET...

"40 percent performance gains over the 10nm chips currently in production, at the same level of power. Or, more interestingly, up 75 percent power savings at the current generation's level of performance. "
https://www.theverge.com/circuitbreaker/2017/6/5/15740500/ibm-5nm-gaafet-transistor-faster-more-efficient

It really is starting become more an more obvious that Intel are loosing (or have already lost it seems at this point in time) their lead in process node development...
This 5nm node will of coarse benefit AMD through GloFo...

Same goes for the up an coming already developed 7nm FinFET node check it here:
https://www.theverge.com/2015/7/9/8919091/ibm-7nm-transistor-processor

Future looks bright for AMD when viewed in light of all this information... As far as I can see Intel is really struggling with there current shrink... let alone any future ones...

Here's a VIdeo also:
https://youtu.be/wsk_ceEjtkI

TSMC is on track for volume production of 7nm chips for iPhone, iPad in 2018:
http://appleinsider.com/articles/17/01/03/tmsc-on-track-for-volume-production-of-7nm-chips-for-iphone-ipad-in-2018

Here's to the future, competition, the age of parallel computing and quadruple battery life in our devices :)
 


Early adopter margins were HUGE...and I do mean HUGE. I expect them to settle around where they are now.

They were near 100% margins average on the 8 cores. Notice the 1700 did not move much at all in price, the 1700X and 1800X came down about $50 to move a little more stock compared to the 1700 that enthusiasts are buying up in droves.
 


Yeah, Jay I said this before and I will say it again! We are on the verge of a golden age in computing! The IBM research alliance is doing amazing! Honestly, how much longer before Watson is building chips for us? The age of A.I. building things beyond human conceptualization is already here, and it's only going to expand at a rate that we will probably not be able to predict much longer. AMD will have 5nm, and 3nm for sure into the future where Intel will no longer be able to hold a dominate position in process node and uarch! They will be forced to innovate!
 
Here is a new video from AdoredTV it's a must watch:
https://youtu.be/L3l9vZD7h_8

He goes into detail on the headaches Intel are facing in the HEDT and Server market.. It's actually very interesting. It seems we been getting the worst binned silicon for Ryzen 7 an down.. as the performance for watt is much better on the 16 core Ryzen parts....

This straight away begs the question....
Doesn't that translate into better overclocking as well...?
Better perf per watt and higher binned silicone... seem's like a recipe for faster clocks doesn't it !

The process is maturing as well. We have already got reports of great quality in their yields, 80% etc...
The initial releases of zen are really starting to look like the runts of the litter..
By the looks of it they have been giving us the worst chips so far.
I mean look at the reduction in power drain on ThreadRipper per core or die even.

What do yis reckon ?

 


Great video! And people criticized infinity fabric! I said it in the beginning this isn't an Intel chip! Infinity fabric works as intended! And like I said before as well Intel is in trouble! And it's not like I'm just saying this to say it. Intel said as much already that they were having issues on the manufacturing side! I've been watching this from the process side coming for over a year now. It's not about being right for me really. I love technology, and the last 10 years have been boring! I personally have owned both AMD and Intel systems. I own 3 Intel systems right now. I'm going to buy whatever fits my needs. When you think about augmented reality how much longer will we be even using desktop PC's. Pretty soon we will just put on a pair of glasses! So, my next CPU purchase will probably be the last Desktop I ever need to own. Finally, we need competition that forces innovation in a game changing way just to keep things exciting!
 
I agree you (with most of it anyway)... Especially the fab side of things.

But I just find it hard to imagine a world without my gaming rig...

Statistically PC sales may be going down.. But at the same time sales of Gaming PC's (an the ingredients for same) are increasing. I mean just look at the money Nvidia were bringing in from GPU sale's even before the Cryptro mayhem.

I know eventually we will have VR of some sort maybe even just glasses.. or VR an AR I suppose.. but I still imagine all this being connected wirelessly to my Gaming Rig (which is plugged into my projector and a monitor with a desk over to side of sitting room for when projector screen is retracted, hell lets have it all VR too)...

Weather it's a smaller box or not it will defo still have interchangeable components and I will be building mine myself (even if no one else is)... It just makes so much more sense.. with the speed tech is now going again (eh please just ignore previous ten years cough, I can understand why Tom got bored lol)....

Anyway it just makes sense to buy a new board with an entry level next gen CPU.. which can simply be upgraded with a faster one couple of years down the road. I mean same goes for Graphic's cards... like come on look at the amount of cards Nvidia have released in last few month's alone just because of the threat of Vega... They were coming out at an alarming as it was.. now it's just ridiculous..

Why would I tie myself to a system without interchangeable parts (upgradeability) .. Honestly like come on... You know it makes sense Rodney...

I just don't see it happening in the foreseeable future anyway.
 
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