Analyst: It's Game Over for Linux

[Guest]

What utter nonsense! Android is Linux. If you say it isn't then what is Linux? That is, Linux has always only been the kernel with the rest composing a particular release. MAC and iOS are BSD derivatives and, frankly, only because BSD was around for Apple to steal like they do with everything else. If Linux was in existence or in a polished form when Apple needed to steal something to replace their antiqued, failed OS it WOULD have been Linux. Linux is EVERYWHERE. Your wash/drier, your advanced exercise machines, your cars, MOST other non-Android smartphones are also Linux based with a custom GUI (hence simply a "release"), and more. What a nutty article! Shows no understanding of Linux.

 

[dchenard]

Why is Linux not getting more traction? Simple, it's because there is not one "official" Linux distribution! OS X, there is one current version. Windows, there is one current version (different levels, I know, but mostly irrelevant for the vast majority of users). Linux? Between RedHat, Mandriva, Ubuntu, Arch, Gentoo, Debian, Slackware, etc., and all the derivatives of the above and more, the basic user is totally lost!

I've tried to make my father switch to Linux, but he lives 450 miles away and doesn't have knowledgeable support back home.

Ubuntu seems like the most likely distribution to make a breakthrough, but then they decided to adopt the Unity desktop, which many despise (including myself).

If Linux ever wants to break through, the number of distributions has to come down to no more than one or two, with fringe distros for those looking for something special.

People should look at the success of Android. Google's handling of the distribution was masterful. They managed to corner the market and make ONE Linux distribution relevant to the smartphone and tablet, ONE only. We need the same thrust with regards to the desktop. Then and only then will we able to make Linux relevant on the desktop...

DC

Mostly Windows free at home (7 starter on a netbook, not as the default OS, that would be Mint 11), using Mint (10 & 11), Ubuntu and OpenSuse.

 

[marshcorps]

Linux is great, it is like Mac in a way because there are only certain things that can run on it.

What Linux needs to sort out is a great basis of games. Take a big game like WoW or Guild Wars, and make a Linux only version that it build up with excellent graphics (thinking Unigine Engine). That would seriously help. Too many game companies are building console games and badly porting them over to Windows. That sucks.

I have always had great experiences with Linux, but too play games I need Windows. Sure I have had some issues with Linux, but I have also had a lot of issues with Windows.

Linux = free OS, free Productivity software (OpenOffice etc.), hardly any need for anti virus (I have never installed anti virus on my linux systems and have never been affected), system performance has been better using Linux than Windows for me, most of the time you don't need to download drivers because everything works right out of the box.

Downsides = No games, drivers like X-fi are designed for a linux platform, quite a lot of apps don't work directly in Linux because they are designed for Windows.

My solution = for games you need to have a Windows machine, for most applications I had a VirtualBox installation with Windows for any non-3D apps that I need to run.

The VirtualBox solution worked nicely because Windows seems a lot more responsive in it than my dual boot version. Maybe it is to do with how the system is accessed.

In the end, if the Linux community wants to survive and progress they need to start making deals with the big corporations to port over to Linux. If all Steam games worked perfectly on Linux it would be great. I would still buy the games, they don't have to be free just because it is going to run on a Linux platform.

 

[iceman1992]

Doesn't matter if Linux doesn't dominate. It provides a good alternative for people who don't want Windows or Mac. My PCs dual boot Linux and Windows. In fact I would prefer it staying at this level of market share. Because if it rises, there will be more Linux malwares. This is only my opinion

 

[back_by_demand]

[citation][nom]killerclick[/nom]Sorry, that's wrong. Google by itself has well over a million servers[/citation]
I never stated how many servers Google had, only the number in the world, and seeing as a conservative estimate puts Google at running nearly 2% of all the worlds servers my original figure stands.
Like I said, don't agree? do your own research.

 

[randomizer]

[citation][nom]dchenard[/nom]Why is Linux not getting more traction? Simple, it's because there is not one "official" Linux distribution![/citation]
Nor will there ever be. There is no greedy corporate body controlling the production of distributions. There is no person who has the right (or even the capacity) to tell thousands of developers that their work and their philosophies are no longer wanted and that they must conform or disappear. There isn't even a set of criteria with which to decide which projects to keep and which to dump.

What you are wanting is not only highly unethical, but entirely impractical.

What Google did with Android is capitalise on a market with almost no existing Linux coverage by forking the kernel, building their own closed-source distro and then releasing the source to the public once they're happy with it. This is completely different to taking control of an existing platform that is saturated with projects and cherry-picking your favourites.

 

[DawnTreader]

Linux may have great features but features that take a text book to understand are not helpful. when i can click an icon and know that it will do what i want and not cause me to research for an hour on what i just did i feel powerful, not stupid.

stupid Linux.

 

[cats_Paw]

Correct me if im wrong, but Linux has never been about domination but about users having the ability to do what they want.
Its like saying that Oblivion will not dominate the pc gaming "even with so many mods". DUH! but for those who do want to play more oblivion, each mod is interesting.

So in general Linus is probably still exactly where its been.

 

[iceman1992]

[citation][nom]cats_paw[/nom]Correct me if im wrong, but Linux has never been about domination but about users having the ability to do what they want.[/citation]
Well said!

 

[mihaimm]

There are 2 things named Linux: the Kernel and the various distributions.

If we're talking about the Kernel then there is a very serious competition between FreeBSD (iOS) and Linux (Android, MeeGo, WebOS) in the mobile area (I'm still not counting Windows here).

If we're talking about Linux distributions there is a serious competition between Linux (RedHat, Ubuntu), UNIX (Solaris, AIX) and Windows on the servers. Linux can also give Windows a run for it's money on any corporate / governmental / educational environment.

Linux simply can't replace Windows at home because of gamers... and the gaming industry that can't seem be able to use OpenGL and cross platform compilers.

So... yes, it's "Game Over" for Linux. But only Game Over. The rest is Business as Usual...

 

[marshcorps]

Ok, anyone that has an problem with Linux being SOOOO complicated obviously hasn't spent any real amount of time using it.

Take Ubuntu, I have used it for a while, but everything you need to do is done through the GUI. About the only time I use the terminal is to scp or rsync files across the network.

Seriously. Install Ubuntu and BAM! you have Office, a decent music player, can watch videos, open any files you want, have internet access. If you need something you get to browse all of the free applications like Android's Market if you haven't used Ubuntu before.

Let's try Windows ... PAY for Windows, PAY for Office, PAY for Anti-virus, PAY again for another anti-virus cause the first one doesn't kill everything.

Linux is NOT just the hardcore terminal based server setup. Try SUSE or Ubuntu and actually spend time using it. It's like saying ... "Using a Mac is rubbish because the icons aren't exactly like Windows" ... you might as well say "I won't drive a car with the windscreen wiper control on the left of the steering wheel because I am used to it being on the right".

I spend 80% of my time on my Ubuntu partition, and the rest of the time I am playing games on Windows. IF I need to do something in Windows, my Virtualbox setup with Windows does the job for 90% of the applications.

 

[Fusion777]

"Sure, Android is built on top of Linux, but Linux is only one of many piece parts of the Android mobile operating system. It is not Linux."

fail.

 

[back_by_demand]

[citation][nom]Fusion777[/nom]"Sure, Android is built on top of Linux, but Linux is only one of many piece parts of the Android mobile operating system. It is not Linux."fail.[/citation]
Well, if you believe 55% of the mobile market who pay licensing fees to Microsoft for Android, then Android contains Microsoft code as well as Linux code.

So saying it's not Linux isn't completely accurate, it would be more accurate to say it's not just Linux.

 

[Guest]

"Well, if you believe 55% of the mobile market who pay licensing fees to Microsoft for Android, then Android contains Microsoft code as well as Linux code."

Not code, though MS did contribute some code to linux tool-chain (gasp), mostly additions to make sure it runs in MS' VM, so it is not exactly a charitable donation. The Android device makers are paying MS racket protection money because they don't want to be sued by MS for "patent infringement" the way cRapple sues them left right and centre, and MS can actually be reasoned with.

 

[back_by_demand]

[citation][nom]noone_asked[/nom]"Well, if you believe 55% of the mobile market who pay licensing fees to Microsoft for Android, then Android contains Microsoft code as well as Linux code."Not code, though MS did contribute some code to linux tool-chain (gasp), mostly additions to make sure it runs in MS' VM, so it is not exactly a charitable donation. The Android device makers are paying MS racket protection money because they don't want to be sued by MS for "patent infringement" the way cRapple sues them left right and centre, and MS can actually be reasoned with.[/citation]
So the reasons for adding MS code are irrelevent, it is there, so it's not a pure Linux. Otherwise there would be millions of handsets running Ubunto or Red Hat.
You can't admit the MS code exists then call it a racket, they either own their own code or they don't. It would be a racket if the code wasn't there but were paying anyway for a quiet life.

You can't have it both ways.

Just be happy with the 270 million-ish worldwide desktop and server users and hope that in 20 years or so it increases it's over all percentage, but don't bank on it.

 

[zzz_b]

Probably this is one of the dummiest conclusion from an "expert" analyst. This guy will actually have a job after his "research"???

 

[yumri]

[citation][nom]tical2399[/nom]Because servers are not the only segment of computing. and i'm sure its more regular home users than entities that would need to use servers[/citation]
even though that is most likely true the 2 most popular Linux versions for Severs are Red Hat and ORACLE Linux which I do not see either of them going away anytime soon as they are making those companies far to much money and the companies do not even have to pay royalties to anyone for using the Linux Kernal. But for desktops yes Linux is not that good as most games will not play on it with that once games are compatiable with more then just Mircosoft Windows i think more and more people will drop Mircosoft and go to Linux and/or OSX which is built on top of a Linux Kernal thus it is Apple branded Linux instead of ORACLE branded Linux but whatever brand it is games and stuff will not run on it until game manufacturers start making versions for Linux and/or the compatibility programs start getting working on most games without having to configure them all manually for each and everyone which you want to play. As that is the only major problem with linux ... that and its takes linux more time to support the latest and greatest hardware as most of them are not getting paid for it except for the distros which you have to buy licenses for as you have to have tech support to use the OS and it is tied into a sever agreement.

 

[DSpider]

[citation][nom]back_by_demand[/nom]So the reasons for adding MS code are irrelevent, it is there, so it's not a pure Linux. Otherwise there would be millions of handsets running Ubunto or Red Hat.You can't admit the MS code exists then call it a racket, they either own their own code or they don't. It would be a racket if the code wasn't there but were paying anyway for a quiet life.You can't have it both ways.Just be happy with the 270 million-ish worldwide desktop and server users and hope that in 20 years or so it increases it's over all percentage, but don't bank on it.[/citation]
What MS code? Patents refer to concepts, ideas. Like FAT/FAT32 for the memory card. Open source drivers can read it without even a single line of MS code, but if it's still FAT32 we're talking about here (so that ~80% of the people can access it under Windows, OS X, Linux, etc. without installing an additional software suite).

Then there's the "slide to unlock" type of patents... But we're going off topic. The point is you can accomplish the same thing with your own code, but the patent (the concept, the idea) for doing so isn't available simply because some douchebag company hurried up and patented it. You'd have to pay up in royalties or risk getting sued for "patent" infringement. And currently I hear that MS gets payed something like 55% of whatever Android costs (per sold unit). So yeah, I can see it as a protection racket. Pay up or risk getting sued.

 

[Guest]

i dont understand how linux has not achieved world domination? Most all masssive networks are backed by linux machines.

Oh and linux, is a kernel correct? its been used in hundreds if not thousands of different devices. There will always be linux guys out there, who like using it as a desktop. Plenty of options are available out there.

Whichever analyst is saying its "game over for linux" is quite the fool and cant even understand what linux truly is. Im willing to bet he owns an android phone which low and behold is running off of the linux kernel! lol

 

[igot1forya]

*Part* of the problem is that as a general rule Linux is not endorsed as a office/administrative business tool. How many people who go to school to take classes for business administration take a non-Microsoft product training course these days? If people use Windows at work, then chances are they will use it at home. Yes, the argument of "it does not have good gaming support" aside, does not really mean much when you think that if it can't be adopted as a work-place desktop environment (based on what everyone has been trained), then it wont make much head-way in the home environment. You see, Microsoft releases Office for MAC, but not Linux. And yes, Linux has a great Office-suite of its own (Open Office, ect) but they don't endorse alternatives in business schools (other than Word Perfect, which is pretty much no competition to Microsoft). Target the work environment and people will feel more comfortable using it at home.

 

[belardo]

[citation][nom]marshcorps[/nom]Ok, anyone that has an problem with Linux being SOOOO complicated obviously hasn't spent any real amount of time using it.Take Ubuntu, I have used it for a while, but everything you need to do is done through the GUI. About the only time I use the terminal is to scp or rsync files across the network.Seriously. Install Ubuntu and BAM! you have Office, a decent music player, can watch videos, open any files you want, have internet access. If you need something you get to browse all of the free applications like Android's Market if you haven't used Ubuntu before.Let's try Windows ... PAY for Windows, PAY for Office, PAY for Anti-virus[/citation]

Linux / Ubuntu are great product in of themselves... but they are no replacement for a standard OS for desktop in which most people can barely handle using a computer.

Hence, Linux is regulated to the computer expert, the guy who wants 100% complete control of his desktop. The guy who has the time to spend tweaking and fixing the OS. Time is something many of us don't have, especially as we get older. There are many driver issues, with little to no driver support from Nvidia, AMD or intel. Simple "Open the source code or write it yourself" is something that 95% of us cannot do or have the time to do it.

I had hoped that Linux would kill Windows in the past... it won't, not even close. The Open Source community won't allow it and don't care. Windows doesn't really effect them. They have an understandable dislike for Windows/MS/Apple - I'm from the Amiga camp, where we had the better hardware and software (in general) and still got destroyed from within (commodore) and lost to Crappy MS-DOS and single-tasking MacOS.

Linux isn't dying or going anywhere - that is what the analyst said. Just that it won't ever dominate the desktop.

- There is NO single standard of Linux (Ubuntu is closest) and if someone tried, the rest of the Open Source crowd would destroy them.

- Designed by and for Computer experts. Easy is not #1 job... but efficiency is. (Windows of ALL versions is very crappy under the hood - its amazing it runs as good as it does)

- Software : Support by the big guys... not there. IBM, Adobe, Intuit, MS, etc - not there. Open Office is dead (you should KNOW that!) Libre Office replaced it... but still its a poor-man's Office 2000/XP. Its stable and looks nice - but it ain't no MS-Office. I tolk some Linux developers why over 6 years ago... No Outlook like module included. Its not designed for regular people to use, but more like "This is our copy of how an Office Suite should look like" = but Not how it should actually work. Open/Libre Office is an after thought. BUT it has forces MS to lower the pricing of MS-Office which is now $120 for 3 user Home license.

Pay Pay for what? Much of the software on my Win7 desktop is free... what, you think only Linux gets freeware/shareware? AV software = $0, Video converter = $0. Firewall = $0, Image Viewer = $0, Browsers - free, duh and of course Libre Office runs on Windows, MacOS and Linux. Some of my paid software still works after 10 years... on Windows7, that were made before XP.

Trust me, Microsoft and Apple are NOT threatened by the Linux Desktop market. Apple, with all their money, marketing and success as the #1 computer company in the world - only has about 5% (worldwide) of the desktop business.

But, MS is worried about iOS and Android. Hence, we have Metro... which is the beginning of the end for Windows as we know it. Even Mac OS-X isn't going to be THE Apple Desktop OS in 5 years. Same with Metro will eventually kill off Windows, which should live to see version 10.

I'll predict that in 5 years, Metro PCs will replace Windows PCs. Why?
Because for 95% of computer users, it'll *DO* what we need. Metro is designed for far more hardware types, its smaller than Windows and cheaper to work with.

Look at the iPad... it does most of what people need in such a device. If not for the keyboard for typing and my development tools (Web, photoshop), I wouldn't NEED a Windows computer.

ChromeOS (or Android for Desktop) will be the most popular non-server version of Linux. I don't think it'll surpass MS's Metro in market share (desktop). Look at ChromeOS which was just released... its "model" is the same as iOS and Metro. In which our data could be stored in a cloud.

Linux will stay where it is, and that is fine. I'm glad they have the server market - I have far more trust in a Linux server than an MS one. Perhaps Linux will remain as the one true Desktop OS in 5~10 years from now.

Both MS and Apple are looking years down the road, good or bad.

 

[Guest]

To all the people saying how great Windows is and how everything works, hardware and games and such, tell me one thing: How come Ubuntu and Debian (yes, I triple-boot) both output when I press "Shift+2", and when I press "Shift+'", but the Great and Infallible Windows 7 outputs when I press "Shift+2" and when I press "Shift+'"? And this is on a Microsoft "Comfort Curve Keyboard 2000" no less, not some weird keyboard (which I coincidentally used to have, and which coincidentally WORKED FINE in all three, all the way up to that dreaded spill of tea on it), but a MS keyboard made for MS OS. While those monkeys in suits can't even make their own keyboard work properly with their own OS, and the bunch of un-organized nerds who lack experience or billions of dollars can do that with the hardware designed by their (I guess second, after Apple) biggest enemy, it is very much a "game on" in my books.

Also, since when does the blog post of a self-proclaimed "analyst" count as a reputable source? FFS, this character uses wikipedia for sources, anyone with a university education knows to avoid using it as a primary source of information. How did you even dig up this shit? I used to like this site because of the actual, real reviews, original research if you will. That gave credence to the site, and with it came the reputation. Publishing crap like this subtracts from the credence, while still giving it a reputation, albeit a poor one. The last 3 years saw this site go downhill. Wait, I think nosedive or freefall are more appropriate terms. Let me guess: B-o-M takeover? Well, I blocked the entire domain-space with adblock a lo-o-ong time ago, and I think for a very good reason. I can't remember the last time Toms did more than one motherboard review per month, something that used to be weekly occurrence. The last motherboard review is September 19... There are more Apple "news" than there are CPU and GPU and motherboard articles COMBINED. What the fuck has happened to the "HARDWARE" part or Toms? It seems that the only hardware articles are "Best for your buck" ones, and that is 2 per month. I belong to the community that visited this site 10 years ago, to keep up to date with tech, see what is new, what is worth putting into my computer and what is not, now it seems that the site is no longer catering to that community. Keep it up, lots of folks are leaving. But there is a sucker born every minute, that's what all this flamebait/corporate propaganda crap disguised as "news articles" is for. This is by far not the first time I thought of closing the tab (the bookmark was deleted already, the account's been closed, too) and not to come back to this site. But this October is seeing a fourth such occurrence. I know, due to this article, that I will not be listening to anything any Forrester analysttool wants to say, but I do not know if I will come back to this site.

 

[belardo]

[citation][nom]silvioj[/nom]i dont understand how linux has not achieved world domination? Most all masssive networks are backed by linux machines. Whichever analyst is saying its "game over for linux" is quite the fool and cant even understand what linux truly is. Im willing to bet he owns an android phone~[/citation]

He said game over for the desktop... which is obvious (read my post above) and mobile - being strangled by Apple and MS patent trolls.

Why didn't Linux Dominate... look at the Amiga history. It had multi-tasking, graphics and audio that would take MS about 10 years to replicate. It was easily cheaper than a PC and far cheaper than a MAC. Why did it bomb? Failure to see into the future, beyond its market.

IBM, Redhat, Google SHOULD have done what Apple did in the 80s.
THEY PAID developers to create products. If they had thrown money at Adobe and Intuit - that would have helped big time.

- Create THE Desktop Standard, period. We see what happens when someone tried. Lindows anyone? Ubuntu is trying and doing a fairly good job... but they don't have the ability to create an actual standard. Changing their desktop GUI tends to throw developers out of wack. Ubuntu is doing their best to make Linux look sharp and cool like MacOS. Again, they are on the right track.

But Ubuntu can't create MS-Office, Adobe products or games.

I think he knows what he's talking about. Seriously - do you SEE the Linux market moving into mainstream? They are old-school computing - which is good in its own way. Google is the only company strong enough to put Linux out there, and they are with Android. Its just not a desktop. Throw on a keyboard and its easily more powerful than a 1990s PC with Windows 95.

Linux isn't going anywhere.

 

[Guest]

Wow what a fail of brackets >

 

[Guest]

Man this site is still killing me with the chevron brackets. I meant to say the I need to press [Shift+'] to get [@], something all of us are used to accomplish by pressing [Shift+2], and there are many more similar mistakes my keyboard makes in windows.