News Arm-Based CPUs Could Double Notebook PC Market Share by 2027: Report

[Admin]

Arm SoCs’s PC market share increased to 12.7% last year, set to grow further.

Arm-Based CPUs Could Double Notebook PC Market Share by 2027: Report : Read more

 

[hotaru.hino]

The only sectors I could possibly see ARM based CPUs greatly overtaking x86 CPUs in the Windows system market is in say the education, or government and corporate administration, where most of the apps they would use would have a native ARM version anyway. Unless Microsoft has something resembling Rosetta 2, I can't imagine personal or productivity use of ARM based CPUs for Windows systems taking off that fast.

 

[ikjadoon]

This estimate is that 25.3% of all laptops will use Arm's ISA by 2027. See, that # includes all macOS devices, which are globally 17.2% of all desktops & laptops.

Assuming every macOS user switches to Apple Silicon by 2027, you only need 8.1% of all Windows + ChromeOS + Linux laptops on Arm's ISA in 2027 to make this estimate true.

11 out of every 12 Windows + ChromeOS + Linux combined laptops will run x86 by 2027. That doesn't sound unreasonable at all. If macOS loses a few users due to the Arm ISA transition (doubt it), say 10 out of every 12.

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Most people that own an ultra-thin laptop (the vast majority of all laptops sold) aren't running obscure, intensive, or ancient x86 software. Virtually everything Microsoft is already Arm native + the browser / Electron takes care of the rest.

1 out of 12 Windows+ChromeOS+Linux doesn't seem that hard in four years.

Just enthusiasts / mobile workstation / gamers are tied to AMD & Intel x86. Everyone else has options.

 

[ikjadoon]

Desktop Operating System Market Share Worldwide | Statcounter Global Stats

And not to mention: that's assuming Windows loses zero market share to macOS by 2027. That's very unlikely, unfortunately for Microsoft.

If Windows doesn't stop its slow decline, it might hold only ~63% global desktop + laptop usage share by 2027. Windows is already down to 55% in the US alone.

Global OS desktop + laptop usage:

United States OS desktop + laptop usage:

 

[jackt]

dont think so, in 2027 riscv will dominate.

 

[bit_user]

First, I had a twinge of deja vu:

https://www.tomshardware.com/news/arm-based-laptops-gaining-share-despite-pc-market-weakness

Same market research firm, making virtually the same prediction, just 2 months prior. So, what happened? Did they publish a slight update?

Second:

Arm-based SoCs can integrate a larger number of high-performance CPU cores and tightly integrated memory, something that not all x86 CPUs can offer. In addition, custom cores in these SoCs provide advanced features that off-the-shelf x86 processor cores do not offer these days, leading to enhanced hardware and operating system integration, the analysts note.

Reads like marketing copy. Mostly unfounded, as far as I'm aware. There's no reason x86 can't integrate memory like Apple has done. And what are these "advanced features" that x86 lacks? Intel has integrated AI acceleration for a few generations, already. AMD is joining them, in their upcoming Phoenix generation.

And what's this about "enhanced hardware and operating system integration"? Is that something about Apple, because they make both the hardware and software? If that was the thinking, then it's really a point about Apple and doesn't generalize much to ARM SoCs writ large. Otherwise, I think we need some explicit examples.

I was pretty accepting of the previous article, but now I'm starting to smell a rat. Just who is Counterpoint Research and can we be sure they weren't paid or otherwise incentivized to publish this report by ARM? There's an utter lack of journalistic skepticism, in this article.

Tagging @apiltch

 

[bit_user]

where most of the apps they would use would have a native ARM version anyway.

A lot of people just use Office and web-based apps. MS Office surely has a native ARM version and obviously so does Chrome/Edge. I think gamers are the only big market segment that couldn't rather seemlessly switch, today.

Unless Microsoft has something resembling Rosetta 2, I can't imagine personal or productivity use of ARM based CPUs for Windows systems taking off that fast.

Windows 11 has support for running x86-64 on ARM. Windows 10 was limited to 32-bit apps, but they finished 64-bit support about a year ago and decided to tie it to Win 11. I'd suggest looking for reviews of a Snapdragon 8cx Gen 3 laptop, like Lenovo X13s, if you want to read impressions of how well it works.

Assuming every macOS user switches to Apple Silicon by 2027,

They already have, with the lone exception of Mac Pro. That's set to be replaced by an ARM-based version, this year.

Also, I'm sure these are sales numbers, and don't include current installed base. So, it's no matter if a subset of Mac users are still clinging to their old x86 models, by then.

BTW, did you find a source for StatCounter's data? I haven't seen any, which makes me skeptical.

 

[bit_user]

dont think so, in 2027 riscv will dominate.

This isn't realistic. There's no version of Windows or ChromeOS that officially supports RISC-V, and it will take time for those to emerge and mature. Microsoft has been working on ARM support for Windows for more than a decade!

Not to mention there's barely any RISC-V penetration even in the phone market, as far as I'm aware. It'll take time for RISC-V to mature and grow into the laptop segment. It will probably happen, not least because of China, but it will probably take closer to a decade, before it can actually outpace ARM, in the global or western markets.

 

[ezst036]

the vast majority (90%) of Arm-based notebooks come from Apple, limiting their growth -------> as Microsoft's Windows is the world's most popular operating system. <-------

Non Sequitor Alert!

Note ikjadoon's observations (quoted below here) Windows has been in decline ever since XP. Something with a 15 year record of decline is hard to be placed in the "most popular" category.

Microsoft Windows is the world's most used operating system, and that is all there is. Linux/Chrome is slowly approaching double digits, Macintoshes are the clear undisputed winner here.

Desktop Operating System Market Share Worldwide | Statcounter Global Stats

And not to mention: that's assuming Windows loses zero market share to macOS by 2027. That's very unlikely, unfortunately for Microsoft.

If Windows doesn't stop its slow decline, it might hold only ~63% global desktop + laptop usage share by 2027. Windows is already down to 55% in the US alone.

Global OS desktop + laptop usage:

United States OS desktop + laptop usage:

 

[hotaru.hino]

If we want to get pedantic about the title of "world's most popular/used/whatever OS", that title most likely belongs to Linux, if not FreeBSD. Or if you want to claim Intel rules the world, MINIX 3. 🙃