The thing which flies in the face of MTL-S appearing is its low apparent clock speed ceiling. According to this, it topped out at just 4.8 GHz:
Results won't make owners of laptops with previous gen CPUs envious
www.tomshardware.com
That's at least going to limit it to low-power market segments, like the lower-end of the 65 W segment. Now, let's explore how much room exists for it to surpass Raptor Lake.
Model | Max Turbo Clockspeed (GHz) |
---|
i9-13900 | 5.6 |
i7-13700 | 5.2 |
i5-13500 | 4.8 |
i3-13100 | 4.5 |
So, with Meteor Lake apparently topping out at 4.8 GHz, it would only make sense to slot in at the i5-14500 and below. In those same benchmarks, it had only a 8.9% IPC benefit, which would make it perform about the same as a 5.23 GHz Raptor Lake. That means it wouldn't be an upgrade over the i7-13700.
I'm mindful of the fact that Intel hasn't refreshed its smaller die Alder Lake-S. It could be that they're going to do exactly as you say, and use Meteor Lake for that. However, Meteor Lake was set to coincide with a new socket. That makes me very skeptical that Intel can/will "backport" it to LGA1700, because I believe we know that
Meteor Lake will not support DDR4, and I think Intel won't want the headache of dealing with a CPU that only works in a limited selection of those boards.
On the flip side, if Intel indeed launches Meteor Lake-S on LGA1851, it seems like such a small market niche they'd be targeting that motherboard selection will be quite poor. Practically, limiting it to OEM-only.