amk-aka-Phantom
Distinguished
AlanDang :
amk-aka-phantom, you've brought up a lot of great points, so I'll touch base upon them.
1. Building your own PC and cost
The Windows tax is what kills you. If you're building from scratch, you're looking at $100 just for the OEM license. Celeron 450 2.2ghz is $40. 2GB for $15. 500gb hdd for $40. LGA775 mobo for $50. DVD burner $20. Keyboard/mouse $15. $50 for the case and 250W supply. That's $330 before cost of Newegg's per-item shipping and then you have the labor of putting it together and then you don't have the luxury of a one-year warranty. If I was building a PC for someone, I could do it for a few bucks less than HP, or I could just send them to HP and not have to deal with being their tech support guy for life...
3. Re: Office on ARM.
The mistake that everyone had was thinking that Google was just a search engine. Or how the iPad would just be a big iPhone. Remember that ARM was engineered as a desktop CPU for Acorn "back in the day." I'm saying stuff like Office on a ARM-powered notebook and desktop. If it had honest-to-goodness 100% Microsoft Office support, I think you'd see a lot more casual users skipping the PC buying experience.
5. The PSU form factor is not beneficial for modern system cooling. That's why we had stuff like motherboards that are rotated 90 degrees or the old Lian Li PC-V line which tried to use the PSU fan to cool HDDs (but would only work for a front-flow design as opposed to a top/down).
I'm going to say that you just don't know what's possible, system-cooling wise, if we weren't tied down the legacy form factor.
1. Cloud computing.
Do you use Gmail, Hotmail or Yahoo? Remember it's the average consumer that we're talking about.
2. Tablets/smartphones
You keep assuming that ARM = tablet/smartphones. I see the big companies looking to cut costs by giving "average users" poor performing hardware that seems to do what they need. You can complain about Apple dumbing down the public, but sadly, that's the public that exists today.
3. PCs will keep getting faster and faster. There's no question about that. But our software isn't keeping up and average users aren't seeing tangible differences between fast/slow CPUs. There was a time when a faster CPU actually meant that your web pages loaded faster. That was thanks to bad browsers, crazy table based layouts, and the state of hardware at the time. Average home user is still happy with a Core 2 Duo. When tablets reach Core 2 Duo performance, will they care that the Ivy Bridge CPUs are super fast? Not unless there are applications that convince them to do so. Outside of games and digital imaging/video, I'm not sure what CPU-intensive or GPU-intensive tasks exist for normal users.
"Just like they said, if a person already has a 2-year-old PC and it can do everything s/he needs, there will be no upgrade, and it makes sense."
Exactly. And the danger/concern is that with today's software/hardware, the upgrade cycle will be even slower. Maybe it'll be like a car. With Windows 8 being more efficient than Windows 7, do you think consumers will be able to do "everything s/he needs" with an i5-2500K in 2015?
Then, while this is true, do you think the *R&D costs* for next-generation GPUs and CPUs are going down or going up? What about R&D costs for better motherboards?
If the PC mainstream market slows down, that's less R&D play money for the companies making enthusiast products. That's what I'm worried about, and that's why the HP future concerns me.
1. Building your own PC and cost
The Windows tax is what kills you. If you're building from scratch, you're looking at $100 just for the OEM license. Celeron 450 2.2ghz is $40. 2GB for $15. 500gb hdd for $40. LGA775 mobo for $50. DVD burner $20. Keyboard/mouse $15. $50 for the case and 250W supply. That's $330 before cost of Newegg's per-item shipping and then you have the labor of putting it together and then you don't have the luxury of a one-year warranty. If I was building a PC for someone, I could do it for a few bucks less than HP, or I could just send them to HP and not have to deal with being their tech support guy for life...
3. Re: Office on ARM.
The mistake that everyone had was thinking that Google was just a search engine. Or how the iPad would just be a big iPhone. Remember that ARM was engineered as a desktop CPU for Acorn "back in the day." I'm saying stuff like Office on a ARM-powered notebook and desktop. If it had honest-to-goodness 100% Microsoft Office support, I think you'd see a lot more casual users skipping the PC buying experience.
5. The PSU form factor is not beneficial for modern system cooling. That's why we had stuff like motherboards that are rotated 90 degrees or the old Lian Li PC-V line which tried to use the PSU fan to cool HDDs (but would only work for a front-flow design as opposed to a top/down).
I'm going to say that you just don't know what's possible, system-cooling wise, if we weren't tied down the legacy form factor.
1. Cloud computing.
Do you use Gmail, Hotmail or Yahoo? Remember it's the average consumer that we're talking about.
2. Tablets/smartphones
You keep assuming that ARM = tablet/smartphones. I see the big companies looking to cut costs by giving "average users" poor performing hardware that seems to do what they need. You can complain about Apple dumbing down the public, but sadly, that's the public that exists today.
3. PCs will keep getting faster and faster. There's no question about that. But our software isn't keeping up and average users aren't seeing tangible differences between fast/slow CPUs. There was a time when a faster CPU actually meant that your web pages loaded faster. That was thanks to bad browsers, crazy table based layouts, and the state of hardware at the time. Average home user is still happy with a Core 2 Duo. When tablets reach Core 2 Duo performance, will they care that the Ivy Bridge CPUs are super fast? Not unless there are applications that convince them to do so. Outside of games and digital imaging/video, I'm not sure what CPU-intensive or GPU-intensive tasks exist for normal users.
"Just like they said, if a person already has a 2-year-old PC and it can do everything s/he needs, there will be no upgrade, and it makes sense."
Exactly. And the danger/concern is that with today's software/hardware, the upgrade cycle will be even slower. Maybe it'll be like a car. With Windows 8 being more efficient than Windows 7, do you think consumers will be able to do "everything s/he needs" with an i5-2500K in 2015?
Then, while this is true, do you think the *R&D costs* for next-generation GPUs and CPUs are going down or going up? What about R&D costs for better motherboards?
If the PC mainstream market slows down, that's less R&D play money for the companies making enthusiast products. That's what I'm worried about, and that's why the HP future concerns me.
1) If you're building a low-end system, you don't need Windows 7. Use XP or Linux.
2) I meant tablets, yes. If ARM is in the laptop or in the desktop, it's no different than the current form-factor, so it doesn't deserve to be mentioned.
3) PSU form-factor doesn't prevent efficient cooling, as long as it's on the bottom of the case. BTW, I don't understand what's with the PSU being on the bottom being a "feature" for enthusiasts. Is it REALLY that hard? Yet it makes things so much easier. What different PSU form-factor do you have in mind? So far, I don't see anything different possible, if you look at what's inside of a PSU (big capacitors, coils, etc.) You could probably make it longer horizontally and shorter vertically, but I don't see a benefit in that.
4) When I talk cloud computing, I mean BS like "online storage", "streamed games" and so on. I do use Gmail, it's an e-mail, it can't be done offline. Storage can be. We use Google Calendar and Docs at work, but I don't need it at home.
5) "If the PC mainstream market slows down, that's less R&D play money for the companies making enthusiast products. That's what I'm worried about, and that's why the HP future concerns me." - I'm worried about that, too, I mentioned that in one of my previous comments (about Asus mobos in HP PCs).
6) Of course common users don't have any software that needs faster hardware. They also don't need a shift from the existing platform, but that's just my opinion. However, hi-end market is STILL profitable, especially if they'd ADVERTISE it, for once. Also, it's not THAT hard to support it. You'll still have a demand for workstations CPUS and GPUs, and that alone is enough to support development and research, and of course PC gaming isn't dead, either.