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"Frank E" <fakeaddress@hotmail.com> wrote in message
news:fdoAQtMYzCGfq9PnuonB4iSpXack@4ax.com...
>>One of the problems all these MMOG guys have is the peak factor. Right
>>after
>>a release of a new game (or server) you get this huge peak of activity
>>while
>>everyone is trying it out, and then the activity recedes to a point where
>>it
>>stabilizes and becomes more or less consistent. If you build for the peak,
>>you wind up overinvesting in overkill for the aftermath, and if you plan
>>on
>>building to the aftermath you suffer during the peak. Given all the
>>uncertainties, it's not surprising to me that there's a bias toward
>>conservative optimism that tries to anticipate a peak. Blizzard's game
>>broke
>>all records and so demolished any conservative peak expectations and we're
>>all paying for it now.
>
> I don't buy it. Blizzard knew how many copies of WoW they were gonna
> print so they knew ahead of time exactly how many players to expect.
That's a fair response and I'm not going to try and defend Blizzard, lol.
But to be fair let's explore this thought a moment. It's one thing to know
how many copies you're going to print. It's another to know how they'll be
distributed. Let's say you print 1 million copies and you intend to provide
50 servers. This results in an average of 20,000 copies per server, a very
reasonable figure when you consider that at any given time only some
percentage of the total number of players will actually be onlne at the same
time. If that percentage is, say, 20%, and the servers have the capacity to
hold 5,000 players, then the numbers all add up and even provide a small
buffer for overrun. Then reality hits and several things happen:
1) The players don't distribute randomly. Instead they all congregate at the
servers with the "coolest" names, or the first ones on the list, or for
whatever reason there are big lumps in the distribution. Some servers are at
immediate capacity and some others are underpopulated.
2) Everyone rushes to play immediately after the launch and so the usual
expectations regarding how many will be online at once aren't applicable and
the actual percentage is something like 60%.
3) The game turns out to be more fun, and the players more dedicated, than
anyone expected. So there's another reason the usual expectations on
simultaneous online players goes out the window and maybe the average,
post-peak percentage is more like 40%.
If 50,000 players signed up on server "CoolName" and any more than 10% of
them are trying to play at once, you've got a big problem. There are things
they can do, like limit the number of new accounts that could be created on
a given server but then they generate *huge* support costs as people call,
post, and generally complain about not being able to join their guild on
server X, their family or friends, etc.
Again, I'm not defending Blizard here, I think these problems are very
solveable with some good planning and architecture. But I do think they are
complex problems that require some thought and given Blizzard's lack of
experience with the MMOG world it's not surprising to me that they bungled
this. Just like they bungled the D2 release.
Of course, the *punishment* they receive is industry-wide awards and
accolades, shameless hysteria from media coverage, active virulent fanboyism
on the popular sites and record-breaking sales. So you tell me, what's the
motivation for them to stop counting their money long enough to do this ...
differently?
--
Bob Perez
"Men do not quit playing because they grow old; they grow old because they
quit playing."
- Oliver Wendell Holmes
"Frank E" <fakeaddress@hotmail.com> wrote in message
news:fdoAQtMYzCGfq9PnuonB4iSpXack@4ax.com...
>>One of the problems all these MMOG guys have is the peak factor. Right
>>after
>>a release of a new game (or server) you get this huge peak of activity
>>while
>>everyone is trying it out, and then the activity recedes to a point where
>>it
>>stabilizes and becomes more or less consistent. If you build for the peak,
>>you wind up overinvesting in overkill for the aftermath, and if you plan
>>on
>>building to the aftermath you suffer during the peak. Given all the
>>uncertainties, it's not surprising to me that there's a bias toward
>>conservative optimism that tries to anticipate a peak. Blizzard's game
>>broke
>>all records and so demolished any conservative peak expectations and we're
>>all paying for it now.
>
> I don't buy it. Blizzard knew how many copies of WoW they were gonna
> print so they knew ahead of time exactly how many players to expect.
That's a fair response and I'm not going to try and defend Blizzard, lol.
But to be fair let's explore this thought a moment. It's one thing to know
how many copies you're going to print. It's another to know how they'll be
distributed. Let's say you print 1 million copies and you intend to provide
50 servers. This results in an average of 20,000 copies per server, a very
reasonable figure when you consider that at any given time only some
percentage of the total number of players will actually be onlne at the same
time. If that percentage is, say, 20%, and the servers have the capacity to
hold 5,000 players, then the numbers all add up and even provide a small
buffer for overrun. Then reality hits and several things happen:
1) The players don't distribute randomly. Instead they all congregate at the
servers with the "coolest" names, or the first ones on the list, or for
whatever reason there are big lumps in the distribution. Some servers are at
immediate capacity and some others are underpopulated.
2) Everyone rushes to play immediately after the launch and so the usual
expectations regarding how many will be online at once aren't applicable and
the actual percentage is something like 60%.
3) The game turns out to be more fun, and the players more dedicated, than
anyone expected. So there's another reason the usual expectations on
simultaneous online players goes out the window and maybe the average,
post-peak percentage is more like 40%.
If 50,000 players signed up on server "CoolName" and any more than 10% of
them are trying to play at once, you've got a big problem. There are things
they can do, like limit the number of new accounts that could be created on
a given server but then they generate *huge* support costs as people call,
post, and generally complain about not being able to join their guild on
server X, their family or friends, etc.
Again, I'm not defending Blizard here, I think these problems are very
solveable with some good planning and architecture. But I do think they are
complex problems that require some thought and given Blizzard's lack of
experience with the MMOG world it's not surprising to me that they bungled
this. Just like they bungled the D2 release.
Of course, the *punishment* they receive is industry-wide awards and
accolades, shameless hysteria from media coverage, active virulent fanboyism
on the popular sites and record-breaking sales. So you tell me, what's the
motivation for them to stop counting their money long enough to do this ...
differently?
--
Bob Perez
"Men do not quit playing because they grow old; they grow old because they
quit playing."
- Oliver Wendell Holmes