4gb card might mean you have to turn down details vs an 8gb. On the other hand though, in a couple of years those cards may not be powerful enough to run as much. But you can already see some games will cap your settings if you only have a 2gb or 4gb card. In your chart though, you don't say how much ram the first system has. If it's 8gb of system ram, it's the better system.
I wouldn't get number 3. 1 and 2 are close. You will want to at some point upgrade to 16gb of ram, and maybe pick up an extra 1 or 2tb drive to store games etc on.