Discussion Intel 12-14 Gen (i7s and i9s) in 15 Years?

[jnjnilson6]

We could herewith consider the futuristic perspective of Year 2037-2038 - about 15 years since the release of Intel gen 12, 13 and 14.

Going back 15 years in time we would summarily witness the Core i7-965 Extreme Edition with release date marking November 2008.

You can still do a lot on that i7-965 EE. Do you think that, perhaps, a Core i7-12700 or 13700 or even an i9-14900 would do so well in the future?

In 2008 a good amount of memory was 2 GB, today that has shifted to about 32 GB.

I am certain that prognostications regarding such future times would be entirely fictitious; yet it would be a great and enthralling exhilaration to partake in such discussion; within the tumultuous sustenance of the ever-changing hardware sphere; within the garish narrowing of nanometers and the amiable gravity and consummate breathlessness of upcoming components.

Thank you and write up!

 

[Order 66]

I haven't used very recent intel CPUs, but I can tell you that for general web browsing and other tasks they would be fine in 15 years. My i5 6500 that I used before my current 7700x stuttered a lot in gaming, but for general usage it was fine. I am curious to see how my 7700x holds up 15 years from now though.

 

[Zerk2012]

If the world is still here in 15 years it will be obsolete since everything will be done with the chip implanted in your head.

Think about it like VR without needing a PC or a headset.

 

[jnjnilson6]

I haven't used very recent intel CPUs, but I can tell you that for general web browsing and other tasks they would be fine in 15 years. My i5 6500 that I used before my current 7700x stuttered a lot in gaming, but for general usage it was fine. I am curious to see how my 7700x holds up 15 years from now though.

If the Internet and web browsers do not undergo a huge transformation, which may be quite impossible because software is being written less smartly, thus taking up much more CPU power and RAM than it ever should, we may still be able to navigate the Internet with 6 cores / 12 threads for many years ahead.

I remember back in time I could open about 40-50 tabs in Chrome (2011-2012) on 896 MB RAM and with a single core Sempron 3300+ at 2 GHz with everything running smoothly. Today you cannot browse comfortably even with 16 GB RAM.

Funny thing is that the norm for RAM in 2010 was 4 GB and in 2011 - 8 GB. And I am seeing laptops with processors like the Core i7-12700H being sold with 8 GB RAM today, 12 years later.

 

[Order 66]

If the Internet and web browsers do not undergo a huge transformation, which may be quite impossible because software is being written less smartly, thus taking up much more CPU power and RAM than it ever should, we may still be able to navigate the Internet with 6 cores / 12 threads for many years ahead.

I remember back in time I could open about 40-50 tabs in Chrome (2011-2012) on 896 MB RAM and with a single core Sempron 3300+ at 2 GHz with everything running smoothly. Today you cannot browse comfortably even with 16 GB RAM.

Funny thing is that the norm for RAM in 2010 was 4 GB and in 2011 - 8 GB. And I am seeing laptops with processors like the Core i7-12700H being sold with 8 GB RAM today, 12 years later.

Define comfortably. I could browse fine on my old i5 6500 and 16GB of RAM. My school's Chromebook struggles with its 4GB of RAM.

 

[jnjnilson6]

Define comfortably. I could browse fine on my old i5 6500 and 16GB of RAM. My school's Chromebook struggles with its 4GB of RAM.

Well, I have 48 GB RAM (DDR4 @ 3200 MHz) on my Acer Nitro (Win11 Pro / Core i7-12700H / Nvidia RTX 3050 Ti 4 GB GDDR6/ 2 TB Samsung 980 Pro).

I do not do anything heavy on the machine at all and it were many a time that simply by web browsing the RAM usage got upwards of 20 GB (I do open many tabs and windows). For the exact same thing, back in the day, 896 MB RAM sufficed smoothly.

When I boot into my system and Windows automatically loads the drivers and I open up the Task Manager, the RAM is already at 8 GB used (before I have opened any programs).

I am sure you could browse very well with 16 GB as you've said, but I oftentimes go upwards of 16 for web browsing. But as is stated, the more RAM your machine retains, the more RAM the software will use.

Hell, I remember running Windows 2000 on 256 MB RAM and opening innumerable tabs too. It seems the RAM usage in terms of browsers and the pages on the Internet has gone upwards with pell-mell speeds in the last 20 years.

You would probably be able to browse the Internet quite well with CPUs like the Core i5-6500 in the next 7 to 8 years. It is a very good processor.

 

[Eximo]

Well, the trend has been increasing CPU cache. Might come a point where a certain minimum of cache is necessary for smooth performance. Whereas L1, L2, L3 cache has been pretty static for the previous 15 years. But we also are seeing increased core counts across the board, so CPUs today may have the bare minimum of tomorrow.

I think the greater fear would be further security holes and exploits making current CPUs too dangerous to keep using for anything but entertainment.

Also the looming quantum internet to consider. Might come a point where https is replaced with something like httpq which requires special hardware.

 

[Roland Of Gilead]

Good question!

In terms of the actual hardware, a CPU or many components of PC's can or would last 10-15 years. As long as they are looked after they could very well last longer. I only retired a Q6600 a few weeks ago

From a software point of view, there maybe solutions to retiring a PC, like a Plex Server/NAS, or many other things that don't really require much compute power. Maybe IoT type devices, or just connected to a huge farm of PC's Folding or other research functions.

Not all things futuristic will require an I9 14900k to work

 

[Eximo]

Hell, I remember running Windows 2000 on 256 MB RAM and opening innumerable tabs too. It seems the RAM usage in terms of browsers and the pages on the Internet has gone upwards with pell-mell speeds in the last 20 years.

Back in the pure HTML days the worst we had were a few low resolution images and banner ads. Not streaming video and other infinitely scrolling web pages.

 

[Order 66]

Well, I have 48 GB RAM (DDR4 @ 3200 MHz) on my Acer Nitro (Win11 Pro / Core i7-12700H / Nvidia RTX 3050 Ti 4 GB GDDR6/ 2 TB Samsung 980 Pro).

I do not do anything heavy on the machine at all and it were many a time that simply by web browsing the RAM usage got upwards of 20 GB (I do open many tabs and windows). For the exact same thing, back in the day, 896 MB RAM sufficed smoothly.

When I boot into my system and Windows automatically loads the drivers and I open up the Task Manager, the RAM is already at 8 GB used (before I have opened any programs).

I am sure you could browse very well with 16 GB as you've said, but I oftentimes go upwards of 16 for web browsing. But as is stated, the more RAM your machine retains, the more RAM the software will use.

Hell, I remember running Windows 2000 on 256 MB RAM and opening innumerable tabs too. It seems the RAM usage in terms of browsers and the pages on the Internet has gone upwards with pell-mell speeds in the last 20 years.

You would probably be able to browse the Internet quite well with CPUs like the Core i5-6500 in the next 7 to 8 years. It is a very good processor.

When my PC boots and windows loads, My RAM usage (I have 32GB) is less than 4GB. I also use opera GX instead of chrome because chrome (on my older i5 system) decided to update in the middle of a Fortnite match. the chrome update installer was using so much CPU that I was getting massive stutters ingame. I vowed never to use chrome on any of my main systems again unless I absolutely needed it.

 

[ThomasKinsley]

It was normal to swap a PC every 3 years in the older Pentium days, but after multi-core CPUs came out they really last longer. In terms of raw processing power current gen Intel chips will be more than adequate 15 years later. The issue comes down to software support. That part is tricky because we're witnessing ARM and RISC-V transition to the desktop and will likely see more software developers slowly transition to coding for those architectures.

To sum it up: the chips are great. The support for those chips 15 years from now is anyone's guess.

 

[sonofjesse]

In 15 years, I'm sure these CPU's will not support the latest version of windows for patches.

However you might can use Linux and browse.

I sold a 2600 (non K) to a person I know, and they still use it for certain tasks no issues.

I'm glad computers are more capable now, but it does seem like our browsers are super hungry for resources and strict coding standards to limit that is not a primary concern.

Right now Chrome shows 76 process's (35 tabs open) and its 5.8GB of ram.

If the machine has it, I get using as much RAM as possible to improve the user experience, but I would love to see a focus on streamlined webpages and browsers. Not everyone has a new machine.

If you look back 2008 you will se the core 2 duo wiht a passmark score of 1200-2500 roughly. Chips score much better than that now. A 14700k is 51k on the passmark score.

Intel Core2 Duo E8400 @ 3.00GHz vs Intel Core2 Quad Q9650 @ 3.00GHz vs Intel Core i7-14700K [cpubenchmark.net] by PassMark Software

Makes for an interesting conversation.

 

[stonecarver]

Might come a point where https is replaced with something like httpq which requires special hardware.

I agree. I feels like the landscape of compatibility we now have will be a thing of the past. Just think if some day e-core's will be the only part of some future CPU that you can go on the internet with. No e-cores = no internet , you know security = new hardware

Windows is already shifting in the background of how it uses the schedulers that decides what core does what with each program.

Throw in AI and who knows.

Throw in instruction sets that hose a still functional CPU, we'll have more of these in the future.

Honestly I hope we do get long life out of current New generation parts but I think the next 15 will be harder than the last 12/13 good years we did get.

But think about this the 10 gen Intel Comet Lake launched May 27-2020 were on 14th gen now.