[citation][nom]freggo[/nom]So Apple dominates in a market that's 5% of the world population, and looses in the remaining 95%.Yeah, sounds familiar.Let's see hoe long that fat bank account keep them going.I give it 3 years max., then they will be looking for a Steve Jobs type again.[/citation]
The US is the largest market for high end smartphones. ie. ones that cost at least $300-$350 USD.
Having ~50% in a market that probably accounts for close to 33-40% of all high end smartphones is not 5%.
Considering they will make about 40-45 billion in profits for the 2012 calendar year seems your '5%' isn't so small...
Also, if you look at laptop and desktop sales Apple only accounts for 10% of sales. Now you think wow that's small and PCacciunt for 90% so Apple is really small. Do not forget the 90% is split close to ten ways (Acer, Asus, Lenovo, HP, Dell, Samsung, Sony, Toshiba, etc.) so Apple as a computer maker is a big as the largest PC maker. Same will be true for smartphones and tablets eventually.
Apple's revenues and profits will not have the same rate of increase and the company's market value (stock) will decline probably starting the downward trend in 2013.
This is coming from an Apple investor since 2007 and someone who likes using iOS devices over other competitors.
Apple is simply repeating what happened in the 80's. introduce new products for consumers but eventually lose significant market share to replicators (then it was Windows and their license structure for Windows) now it's Android and Google's license structure.
This becomes evident in the iPad market share. The tablet space is growing significantly year over year but Apple's market share is falling. They are still increasing revenue and profits at a high level since volume is increasing to more than offset the lose in market share. Eventually markets mature and the small market share prevents signifant growth (stock will fall).
In 3 years I project a $300-$400 stock a significant drop. Apple in the short term will probably be close to $700 and then drop down.