Is Centrino brand all that strong?

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Archived from groups: comp.sys.ibm.pc.hardware.chips (More info?)

George Macdonald <fammacd=!SPAM^nothanks@tellurian.com> wrote:
> - possibly you are not aware of all the resulting problems:

I am _more_ than aware enough. I work in the research/tech
support center of a major oil company.

> the mix can not go in a pipeline;

Doh! Why would you want to, since many locations don't need it.
Especially into the big pipelines (Colonial & Plantation), the
rule is fungible only, unadditized.

> it can't be stored for any length of time,

Doh! You can't store regular gasoline all that long either.
It _does_ contain up to ~10% olefins.

> mixing generally being done into the final delivery vehicle

As are many additives. Perfectly good so long as it's done
ratably, inline. No bucket dosing, please!

> and the broken engines *are* real - even small amounts of

Engines break every day. Why not blame the fuel?

> water and you lose octane *big* time.

IIRC the BRON of ethanol is ~130. At 2% that's 0.8 number on
91 fuel. Frankly, there are bigger problems. It's very easy
to plug FI filters. Many people in the ethanol-mandate areas
add various gasoline antifreezes, often containing methanol.

> As already mentioned the mid-west FFT boondoggle is just
> Daschle's pork barrel.

Fully agreed.

> I've already mentioned scale and I hardly think the auto
> business in Brazil can be compared with that of the U.S.

Of course it can be compared. It's about 1/4 the size,
but has been running 10% ethanol for 30+ years.

> in Brazil which have the temperature extremes we have in

No, it's hot & humid all the time.

> the northern states, which contributes significantly to
> the storage problems.

Underground is remarkably constant temperature. And anyone
seriously storing fuels ought to have a drier on the vent,
if not full gas blanketting. Tank breathing is the big
problem with temperature changes.

> Of course they exist; the fact is that they are
> not economically viable and unless we get the major
> breakthroughs already mentioned they never will be

Economic viability can be reached different ways. Reduced cost
would be nice, but increased alternative cost is far more likely.
What happens when crude oil creeps to $100/bbl or higher?

> cryogenic storage in a vehicle (-240'C) is absurd.

Hardly. Dewars and send the boil-off through fuel-cells for
keep-warm, battery charging or back-into-grid. Probably best
suited for large, high-duty-cycle vehicles like busses (of
which there will be many more).

> [magnesium hydride is one] but again not very practical... the
> disposal problem as just one example.

I _love_ to dispose of magnesium! :)

> While the fundamental research could be valuable, producing
> vehicles at this stage is just a waste of the energy which
> is supposedly so precious - the pollution balance is even
> less convincing.

There are lots of practical problems that can only be discovered
with fleet testing. This _is_ fundamental (engineering) research.

-- Robert
 
Archived from groups: comp.sys.ibm.pc.hardware.chips (More info?)

Robert Redelmeier wrote:
> George Macdonald <fammacd=!SPAM^nothanks@tellurian.com> wrote:
>
>>- possibly you are not aware of all the resulting problems:
>
>
> I am _more_ than aware enough. I work in the research/tech
> support center of a major oil company.
>
>
>>the mix can not go in a pipeline;
>
>
> Doh! Why would you want to, since many locations don't need it.
> Especially into the big pipelines (Colonial & Plantation), the
> rule is fungible only, unadditized.
>
>
>>it can't be stored for any length of time,
>
>
> Doh! You can't store regular gasoline all that long either.
> It _does_ contain up to ~10% olefins.
>
>
>>mixing generally being done into the final delivery vehicle
>
>
> As are many additives. Perfectly good so long as it's done
> ratably, inline. No bucket dosing, please!
>
>
>>and the broken engines *are* real - even small amounts of
>
>
> Engines break every day. Why not blame the fuel?
>
>
>>water and you lose octane *big* time.
>
>
> IIRC the BRON of ethanol is ~130. At 2% that's 0.8 number on
> 91 fuel. Frankly, there are bigger problems. It's very easy
> to plug FI filters. Many people in the ethanol-mandate areas
> add various gasoline antifreezes, often containing methanol.
>
>
>>As already mentioned the mid-west FFT boondoggle is just
>>Daschle's pork barrel.
>
>
> Fully agreed.
>
>
>>I've already mentioned scale and I hardly think the auto
>>business in Brazil can be compared with that of the U.S.
>
>
> Of course it can be compared. It's about 1/4 the size,
> but has been running 10% ethanol for 30+ years.
>
>
>>in Brazil which have the temperature extremes we have in
>
>
> No, it's hot & humid all the time.
>
>
>>the northern states, which contributes significantly to
>>the storage problems.
>
>
> Underground is remarkably constant temperature. And anyone
> seriously storing fuels ought to have a drier on the vent,
> if not full gas blanketting. Tank breathing is the big
> problem with temperature changes.
>
>
>>Of course they exist; the fact is that they are
>>not economically viable and unless we get the major
>>breakthroughs already mentioned they never will be
>
>
> Economic viability can be reached different ways. Reduced cost
> would be nice, but increased alternative cost is far more likely.
> What happens when crude oil creeps to $100/bbl or higher?
>
>
>>cryogenic storage in a vehicle (-240'C) is absurd.
>
>
> Hardly. Dewars and send the boil-off through fuel-cells for
> keep-warm, battery charging or back-into-grid. Probably best
> suited for large, high-duty-cycle vehicles like busses (of
> which there will be many more).
>
>
>>[magnesium hydride is one] but again not very practical... the
>>disposal problem as just one example.
>
>
> I _love_ to dispose of magnesium! :)
>
>
>>While the fundamental research could be valuable, producing
>>vehicles at this stage is just a waste of the energy which
>>is supposedly so precious - the pollution balance is even
>>less convincing.
>
>
> There are lots of practical problems that can only be discovered
> with fleet testing. This _is_ fundamental (engineering) research.
>

Vehicle production is needed now even if for no other reason to
demonstrate to investors - whether governments, venture
capitalists, or shareholders - that progress is being made. Just
who the heck do you think is paying for that "fundamental
research" ? Merely publishing research results in journals
ain't gonna do the job when you need to stoke investor interest.

Also, having a few demo cars on the road today goes a long ways
towards preparing the public for the possibility that such cars
will be common in the future. If the public has been thinking
and talking about hydrogen powered cars for 20 years before such
cars become readily available there won't be so much skepticism
of a new gee-whiz technology to overcome when/if that day finally
arrives.

--
Every cloud has a silver lining, even if you sometimes
have to drop a little acid before you can see it.
 
Archived from groups: comp.sys.ibm.pc.hardware.chips (More info?)

On Sun, 13 Feb 2005 17:57:33 GMT, Robert Redelmeier
<redelm@ev1.net.invalid> wrote:

You know it makes awful difficult to have a normal Usenet discourse when
the other party clips sentences & paras down to bite sized chunks...
conversation equivalent would be talking over someone who's trying to have
a two-way exchange... but maybe that was your intention?;-) Quite honestly
I don't have the time to re-dissect such a mess and won't again.

>George Macdonald <fammacd=!SPAM^nothanks@tellurian.com> wrote:
>> - possibly you are not aware of all the resulting problems:
>
>I am _more_ than aware enough. I work in the research/tech
>support center of a major oil company.

Out of the closet huh?🙂 Many years ago I worked for the Technical
Research Dept of a major too... fuels & then lubes. In fact at one time I
was involved in an investigation as to why the ethanol was disappearing
from the mix. Short of sending down specialized equipment -- what we have
today was not available -- to the bottom of the depot pump/storage tank...
we couldn't find an answer; normal bottom-sampling showed no water. The
chief chemist proposed various possible scenarios but bottom line: we never
found out... but lab testing showed no sign of alcohol after a few days.

>> the mix can not go in a pipeline;
>
>Doh! Why would you want to, since many locations don't need it.
>Especially into the big pipelines (Colonial & Plantation), the
>rule is fungible only, unadditized.

There are a lot of places which use ethanol mix now -- it's certainly
pretty big in volume -- and a lot of different pipelines. My info is that
ethanol, quite recently, was mixed in in the product tank, at least by some
producers, but the practice was changed -- the pipeline transfer of gasohol
*has* been tried with disastrous results.

>> it can't be stored for any length of time,
>
>Doh! You can't store regular gasoline all that long either.
>It _does_ contain up to ~10% olefins.

By your statement above you must know, it's relative: in fact olefin
content is getting near-zero in many places due to regulations and the
enhanced stability is quite obvious. My own observation is that, whereas,
at one time, gasoline would not last in a lawnmower tank more than 3 mnths
max, it now happily lasts 9 months... without any signs of "gum" formation
- I have a chemist's trained nose.🙂 The water uptake and eventual
separation -- taking most of the ethanol with it -- can happen in days.

>> mixing generally being done into the final delivery vehicle
>
>As are many additives. Perfectly good so long as it's done
>ratably, inline. No bucket dosing, please!

Ethanol is not really an additive - it's more of a "blending agent" and the
political msg is that ethanol global volume can/should be increased...
implying to me higher %age mixes to come.

>> and the broken engines *are* real - even small amounts of
>
>Engines break every day. Why not blame the fuel?

The effect is easily explainable... and I did *not* say this was to blame
for every broken engine

>> water and you lose octane *big* time.
>
>IIRC the BRON of ethanol is ~130. At 2% that's 0.8 number on
>91 fuel. Frankly, there are bigger problems. It's very easy
>to plug FI filters. Many people in the ethanol-mandate areas
>add various gasoline antifreezes, often containing methanol.

AFAICT, close: ethanol seems to vary from 120-135 BRON & 95-106 BMON,
depending on what you mix it with but there are err, "variations" in the
data. I'm sure the refiners would be delighted to find a HC blendstock
with a BRON of 130 and might get quite alarmed if its effect was
disappearing en-route; even at your 2% value, and assuming linear response,
Weights & Measures could get quite interested too and at 10% it's getting
extremely serious.

On antifreeze/methanol, your point is?...: methanol is the worst of the
"gas-line" antifreezes - almost totally ineffective in the target
climate/season and has a higher solvent effect on gaskets; isopropanol
(99.9% obviously) is the best but even there the relative solubility in HCs
vs. water is pretty poor - IOW you need to use a lot of it if there's water
in the tank/lines. FWIS I'm afraid most people use it as a corrective
rather than preventative.🙂

>> As already mentioned the mid-west FFT boondoggle is just
>> Daschle's pork barrel.
>
>Fully agreed.
>
>> I've already mentioned scale and I hardly think the auto
>> business in Brazil can be compared with that of the U.S.
>
>Of course it can be compared. It's about 1/4 the size,
>but has been running 10% ethanol for 30+ years.

I disagree - the car-population density vs. acreage available is no
comparison at all. It's also one of the umm, busted economies.

>> in Brazil which have the temperature extremes we have in
>
>No, it's hot & humid all the time.

IOW no problem.

>> the northern states, which contributes significantly to
>> the storage problems.
>
>Underground is remarkably constant temperature. And anyone
>seriously storing fuels ought to have a drier on the vent,
>if not full gas blanketting. Tank breathing is the big
>problem with temperature changes.

There are lots of floating roof above-ground gasoline storage tanks. With
gasohol and small amounts of water + temp oscillations, there's a (one-way)
pumping effect on separation... and there's always some water present.
Pipelines, storage tanks, bulk plants, but especially many gas station and
car tanks are polluted with small amounts of water. Final products at the
refinery are close to saturated with water at fairly high temps.

This is a *known* problem; I'm surprised you seem to not know about it.

>> Of course they exist; the fact is that they are
>> not economically viable and unless we get the major
>> breakthroughs already mentioned they never will be
>
>Economic viability can be reached different ways. Reduced cost
>would be nice, but increased alternative cost is far more likely.
>What happens when crude oil creeps to $100/bbl or higher?

We might get effective and fair rules/economics which encourage reduced
usage by that point... hopefully before. In many other countries they are
effectively already paying ~4 times what we pay in the U.S. at the pump so
that $100. might easily be supported; obviously, ultimately there's a
crisis point but that's not solved by a product which has a negative energy
balance.

>> cryogenic storage in a vehicle (-240'C) is absurd.
>
>Hardly. Dewars and send the boil-off through fuel-cells for
>keep-warm, battery charging or back-into-grid. Probably best
>suited for large, high-duty-cycle vehicles like busses (of
>which there will be many more).

There's always special cases but then you have fragmentation of the fuels
market... i.e. new inefficiencies... which I'm sure will be paid for by
govt., IOW taxes. If you think that hydrogen, high pressure and cryogenics
are viable for personal auto and can fit into something resembling current
inrastructure, I give up - they'll have to show you.🙂

>> [magnesium hydride is one] but again not very practical... the
>> disposal problem as just one example.
>
>I _love_ to dispose of magnesium! :)
>
>> While the fundamental research could be valuable, producing
>> vehicles at this stage is just a waste of the energy which
>> is supposedly so precious - the pollution balance is even
>> less convincing.
>
>There are lots of practical problems that can only be discovered
>with fleet testing. This _is_ fundamental (engineering) research.

No that's the prototyping/sampling stage - what we are seeing at the moment
is just politically driven - it's much too early to be out of the
experimental lab IMO.

--
Rgds, George Macdonald
 
Archived from groups: comp.sys.ibm.pc.hardware.chips (More info?)

On Sun, 13 Feb 2005 18:42:44 GMT, Rob Stow <rob.stow.nospam@shaw.ca> wrote:

>
>Vehicle production is needed now even if for no other reason to
>demonstrate to investors - whether governments, venture
>capitalists, or shareholders - that progress is being made. Just
>who the heck do you think is paying for that "fundamental
>research" ? Merely publishing research results in journals
>ain't gonna do the job when you need to stoke investor interest.

When the fuel itself cannot be produced with a good positive energy balance
it's just too early - you might as well pursue encapsulating & harvesting
dung heaps. Producing vehicles for sale which actually increase energy
waste is madness; the auto mfrs all have access to excellent facilities for
testing their Frankenstein inventions without "field testing".

>Also, having a few demo cars on the road today goes a long ways
>towards preparing the public for the possibility that such cars
>will be common in the future. If the public has been thinking
>and talking about hydrogen powered cars for 20 years before such
>cars become readily available there won't be so much skepticism
>of a new gee-whiz technology to overcome when/if that day finally
>arrives.

You mean prepare/condition them for the day when they can no longer afford
personal transportation! I believe that 20 years is much too short a time
frame for all the current "alternative" fuels.

--
Rgds, George Macdonald
 
Archived from groups: comp.sys.ibm.pc.hardware.chips (More info?)

On Mon, 14 Feb 2005 03:25:39 -0500, George Macdonald
<fammacd=!SPAM^nothanks@tellurian.com> wrote:


>We might get effective and fair rules/economics which encourage reduced
>usage by that point... hopefully before. In many other countries they are
>effectively already paying ~4 times what we pay in the U.S. at the pump so
>that $100. might easily be supported; obviously, ultimately there's a
>crisis point but that's not solved by a product which has a negative energy
>balance.
>
Other countries charge more for gasoline through higher taxes. They
don't have the U.S. constitution with two senators per state, no
matter how sparsely populated. People in sparsely-populated states
drive longer distances on average than in densely-populated states and
take a very dim view of European-style taxation of gasoline.

I have a chart that shows as a function of publication date estimates
of the net energy balance of ethanol published over the last thirty
years. Some estimates are negative, but but both the mean and the
slope are positive.

The net energy balance is not, in any case, the crucial figure of
merit, because we don't have an energy crisis. We have a serious
national security concern about depedence on transportation fuel from
politically-unreliable suppliers.

If producing ethanol inevitably resulted in net reduced available
transportation fuel, it would, indeed be silly to pursue it (unless,
as I think you believe is happening, someone is trying to create a
farm subsidy boondoggle). Heat to distill ethanol, one concern you
mentioned, could come from coal or municipal waste. In terms of the
national security concerns we really do have, it matters only if, as a
result of using, say, coal, to distill ethanol, we wind up imorting
more oil.

RM
 
Archived from groups: comp.sys.ibm.pc.hardware.chips (More info?)

Robert Redelmeier wrote:

>I _love_ to dispose of magnesium! :)

Just be sure to be wearing your welding goggles... 8)
 
Archived from groups: comp.sys.ibm.pc.hardware.chips (More info?)

George Macdonald <fammacd=!SPAM^nothanks@tellurian.com> wrote:
> You mean prepare/condition them for the day when they can
> no longer afford personal transportation!

This most certainly is coming.

> I believe that 20 years is much too short a time frame for
> all the current "alternative" fuels.

It may be, we shall see. Most likely, unconventional petroleum
will be explored first.

-- Robert
 
Archived from groups: comp.sys.ibm.pc.hardware.chips (More info?)

George Macdonald <fammacd=!SPAM^nothanks@tellurian.com> wrote:
> You know it makes awful difficult to have a normal Usenet
> discourse when the other party clips sentences & paras down to
> bite sized chunks... conversation equivalent would be talking
> over someone who's trying to have a two-way exchange... but
> maybe that was your intention?;-)

No, my intention was to avoid being long-winded and not quote
more than new content, per RFC 1855.

> to the bottom of the depot pump/storage tank... we couldn't find
> an answer; normal bottom-sampling showed no water. The chief

Tank floors shift. And those little cup draws don't work
very well. Unless solvent, blanketted or hot, I assume all
tanks have water at the bottom. We often produce "extra dry"
products because we know they pick up some water en-route.

> My info is that ethanol, quite recently, was mixed in
> in the product tank, at least by some producers, but the
> practice was changed -- the pipeline transfer of gasohol
> *has* been tried with disastrous results.

Predictably disastrous results.

> in fact olefin content is getting near-zero in many places due
> to regulations and the enhanced stability is quite obvious.

The regs aren't that tight. But some places, some grades
and some blends have very little olefins.

> The water uptake and eventual separation -- taking most of
> the ethanol with it -- can happen in days.

When exposed to humid air flow, certainly.

> AFAICT, close: ethanol seems to vary from 120-135 BRON &
> 95-106 BMON, depending on what you mix it with but there are
> err, "variations" in the data. I'm sure the refiners would be
> delighted to find a HC blendstock with a BRON of 130 and might

Toluene, but it's expensive. And BRON _is_ linear, with, err
"variations" depending on base.

> I disagree - the car-population density vs. acreage available
> is no comparison at all. It's also one of the umm, busted
> economies.

Most of Brazil is undeveloped Amazon. Most of the car usage
is on the coast. And why aren't there interesting lessons?
It's more a more severe test given the lack of development.

> There are lots of floating roof above-ground gasoline
> storage tanks. With gasohol and small amounts of water +
> temp oscillations, there's a (one-way) pumping effect on
> separation... and there's always some water present.

Floating roof for gasohol? Madness if there's any rain around.
The seals leak. Large storage tanks don't react quickly
(daily) to temperature change -- too much heat in the oil.
There is a water-solubility "pumping" effect with temperature,
but usually atmospheric breathing from diurnal (&other)
temperature variations is the problem in fixed roof.

> Final products at the refinery are close to saturated with
> water at fairly high temps.

It depends _entirely_ on the refinery & process. If you
run cheap stream strippers without driers, you deserve
what you get -- wet products.

> In many other countries they are effectively already
> paying ~4 times what we pay in the U.S. at the pump so
> that $100. might easily be supported;

No, I don't think it will be easily supported. Many
people will have to cut back personal transportation.

> obviously, ultimately there's a crisis point but that's
> not solved by a product which has a negative energy balance.

I'm not sure there's such a discontinuity. And every
fuel (or use of stored energy) has a negative energy
balance. Some are less inefficent than others, and
the location of that inefficiency changes.

> There's always special cases but then you have fragmentation
> of the fuels market... i.e. new inefficiencies... which I'm
> sure will be paid for by govt., IOW taxes.

All costs are carried by the people because there really
is no-one else who can pay. Corps & govt are pass-thru.
The people will pay either through taxes (generally
undesireably) or through higher prices.

-- Robert
 
Archived from groups: comp.sys.ibm.pc.hardware.chips (More info?)

On Mon, 14 Feb 2005 14:10:08 GMT, Robert Redelmeier
<redelm@ev1.net.invalid> wrote:

>George Macdonald <fammacd=!SPAM^nothanks@tellurian.com> wrote:

>> in fact olefin content is getting near-zero in many places due
>> to regulations and the enhanced stability is quite obvious.
>
>The regs aren't that tight. But some places, some grades
>and some blends have very little olefins.

I thought that Calif. had banned unsaturates completely and some north
eastern states are/have adopted Calif. regs.

>> The water uptake and eventual separation -- taking most of
>> the ethanol with it -- can happen in days.
>
>When exposed to humid air flow, certainly.

I believe it's due more to temp oscillations... *with* the concomitant
increased humidity at the higher temp.

>> AFAICT, close: ethanol seems to vary from 120-135 BRON &
>> 95-106 BMON, depending on what you mix it with but there are
>> err, "variations" in the data. I'm sure the refiners would be
>> delighted to find a HC blendstock with a BRON of 130 and might
>
>Toluene, but it's expensive. And BRON _is_ linear, with, err
>"variations" depending on base.

Toluene has a RON power equivalent of ~122 IIRC but in blending it
generally comes out at about 110 or so from what I've read and yes it *is*
expensive. Gasoline blending response is basically non-linear; different
companies have different ways of dealing with the non-linearity in their
models - one company I worked for used approximations called RBNs. BRON is
just one way of dealing with it, though the elimination of Pb helped to
simplify things.

>> There are lots of floating roof above-ground gasoline
>> storage tanks. With gasohol and small amounts of water +
>> temp oscillations, there's a (one-way) pumping effect on
>> separation... and there's always some water present.
>
>Floating roof for gasohol? Madness if there's any rain around.
>The seals leak. Large storage tanks don't react quickly
>(daily) to temperature change -- too much heat in the oil.
>There is a water-solubility "pumping" effect with temperature,
>but usually atmospheric breathing from diurnal (&other)
>temperature variations is the problem in fixed roof.

OK so floating roof tanks have to be scrapped!... new storage medium.🙂
But there's so much of the channel which is out of control of the producer.

>> Final products at the refinery are close to saturated with
>> water at fairly high temps.
>
>It depends _entirely_ on the refinery & process. If you
>run cheap stream strippers without driers, you deserve
>what you get -- wet products.

I think the "tea-kettles" are pretty much all gone now. The fact is that
any HC product is difficult to keep dry - put it through the normal
distribution channels and it gets wet.

>> In many other countries they are effectively already
>> paying ~4 times what we pay in the U.S. at the pump so
>> that $100. might easily be supported;
>
>No, I don't think it will be easily supported. Many
>people will have to cut back personal transportation.

Define "easily". The price (with the taxes) is supported in other places.
Before the more recent excesses, the US was much closer to petroleum
self-sufficiency - a little motivation would go a long way. Those "people"
had better get used to the future reduced availability of personal
transportation.

>> obviously, ultimately there's a crisis point but that's
>> not solved by a product which has a negative energy balance.
>
>I'm not sure there's such a discontinuity. And every
>fuel (or use of stored energy) has a negative energy
>balance. Some are less inefficent than others, and
>the location of that inefficiency changes.

Sounds like waffle to me - obviously petroleum is self sustaining in its
implementation of the energy balance. The fact is that hydrogen's energy
balance is just so far out of whack that to me the current folklore being
spread is a fraud.

>> There's always special cases but then you have fragmentation
>> of the fuels market... i.e. new inefficiencies... which I'm
>> sure will be paid for by govt., IOW taxes.
>
>All costs are carried by the people because there really
>is no-one else who can pay. Corps & govt are pass-thru.
>The people will pay either through taxes (generally
>undesireably) or through higher prices.

But distorting the picture by running hugely inefficient, impractical govt.
financed vehicles to "prove that it works" is a fraudulent deceit.

--
Rgds, George Macdonald
 
Archived from groups: comp.sys.ibm.pc.hardware.chips (More info?)

On Mon, 14 Feb 2005 07:30:10 -0500, Robert Myers <rmyers1400@comcast.net>
wrote:

>On Mon, 14 Feb 2005 03:25:39 -0500, George Macdonald
><fammacd=!SPAM^nothanks@tellurian.com> wrote:
>
>
>>We might get effective and fair rules/economics which encourage reduced
>>usage by that point... hopefully before. In many other countries they are
>>effectively already paying ~4 times what we pay in the U.S. at the pump so
>>that $100. might easily be supported; obviously, ultimately there's a
>>crisis point but that's not solved by a product which has a negative energy
>>balance.
>>
>Other countries charge more for gasoline through higher taxes. They
>don't have the U.S. constitution with two senators per state, no
>matter how sparsely populated. People in sparsely-populated states
>drive longer distances on average than in densely-populated states and
>take a very dim view of European-style taxation of gasoline.

Yes - of course it's taxes, however: the US-global economic picture is
difficult to even estimate here, but the fact is that at $100./bbl we'd
only have a ~doubling of price at the pump compared to where we are now.
IOW it wouldn't be that big a deal *if* people were to be cajoled through
the price into choosing more efficient conventional IC-engine vehicles.
Would it get them out of their SUVs?... some of them yes.

As for the people who drive long distances, it's not only in sparsely
populated states - this is a direct result of the U.S. suburban
infrastructure. If things are bad enough with petroleum that we need to be
looking at bio-fuels, then that infrastructure becomes totally
impractical... IOW *BIG* changes are in store for us.

>I have a chart that shows as a function of publication date estimates
>of the net energy balance of ethanol published over the last thirty
>years. Some estimates are negative, but but both the mean and the
>slope are positive.

Yes but as I've already said, the numbers are all over the place.
Pimentel's "learned" study
http://www.news.cornell.edu/Chronicles/8.23.01/Pimentel-ethanol.html has
been discredited on the (out of date) efficiency numbers but has some other
data which is reasonably accurate in the broad strokes of the practicality
of a corn/ethanol "implementation". I've no idea if, as many on the other
side have suggested, the man has been paid by petro-interests but the fact
is that bio-fuel "experts" are being paid too, by somebody... and they are
not above suspicion.

>The net energy balance is not, in any case, the crucial figure of
>merit, because we don't have an energy crisis. We have a serious
>national security concern about depedence on transportation fuel from
>politically-unreliable suppliers.

Look if what's termed EROI (Energy Returned On Investment: energy out :
energy in) is not >1 you're just pissing energy away - you need something
close to 2 to be able to do it and as for the scale... think about it. My
guess based on the "data" is that with ethanol it's 1.5 best case right
now. I *would* like to know how the efficiency enhancements were made
though - a change from ~.5 to ~1.5 is hard to understand. Note again that
ethanol is still made more efficiently presently from ethylene hydration,
by the petro-chemicals industry.

>If producing ethanol inevitably resulted in net reduced available
>transportation fuel, it would, indeed be silly to pursue it (unless,
>as I think you believe is happening, someone is trying to create a
>farm subsidy boondoggle). Heat to distill ethanol, one concern you
>mentioned, could come from coal or municipal waste. In terms of the
>national security concerns we really do have, it matters only if, as a
>result of using, say, coal, to distill ethanol, we wind up imorting
>more oil.

"Someone" already *has* created a farm subsidy boondoggle - that *is* what
I've been saying. As for coal, S. Africa found it more practical to make
HC fuels from it - it fit the downstream infrastructure. Either way you
*will* get "net reduced available transportation fuel".

Remember that in the early 80s, the US was at <30% dependence on imported
fuel - a much healthier situation. What happened there?<rhet.>🙂

--
Rgds, George Macdonald
 
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On Mon, 14 Feb 2005 19:31:29 -0500, George Macdonald
<fammacd=!SPAM^nothanks@tellurian.com> wrote:

>On Mon, 14 Feb 2005 07:30:10 -0500, Robert Myers <rmyers1400@comcast.net>
>wrote:
>

<snip>

>
>Yes - of course it's taxes, however: the US-global economic picture is
>difficult to even estimate here, but the fact is that at $100./bbl we'd
>only have a ~doubling of price at the pump compared to where we are now.
>IOW it wouldn't be that big a deal *if* people were to be cajoled through
>the price into choosing more efficient conventional IC-engine vehicles.
>Would it get them out of their SUVs?... some of them yes.
>
>As for the people who drive long distances, it's not only in sparsely
>populated states - this is a direct result of the U.S. suburban
>infrastructure. If things are bad enough with petroleum that we need to be
>looking at bio-fuels, then that infrastructure becomes totally
>impractical... IOW *BIG* changes are in store for us.
>

Maybe, but I don't think so. There's really just too much energy out
there and too many ways to make it available.

If there is a surprise, it will be war, terrorism, or political
instability. I really don't believe that we will see tax policy used
to create a smooth transition from reliance on oil, so the transition
will be bumpy, but we'll make the transition one way or another.

>>I have a chart that shows as a function of publication date estimates
>>of the net energy balance of ethanol published over the last thirty
>>years. Some estimates are negative, but but both the mean and the
>>slope are positive.
>
>Yes but as I've already said, the numbers are all over the place.
>Pimentel's "learned" study
>http://www.news.cornell.edu/Chronicles/8.23.01/Pimentel-ethanol.html has
>been discredited on the (out of date) efficiency numbers but has some other
>data which is reasonably accurate in the broad strokes of the practicality
>of a corn/ethanol "implementation". I've no idea if, as many on the other
>side have suggested, the man has been paid by petro-interests but the fact
>is that bio-fuel "experts" are being paid too, by somebody... and they are
>not above suspicion.
>

Pimentel, as you know, has been the long pole in the tent. I don't
think there is anyone in the business without a motive. 🙂.

If you want to get fried, take a look at

http://egov.oregon.gov/ENERGY/RENEW/Biomass/docs/FORUM/EthanolEnergyBalance.pdf

I _think_ the claim is that the net energy balance of *gasoline* is
negative. It is such a hot topic, that the three-word,
highly-specific google search "ethanol energy balance" gets a thousand
hits.

>>The net energy balance is not, in any case, the crucial figure of
>>merit, because we don't have an energy crisis. We have a serious
>>national security concern about depedence on transportation fuel from
>>politically-unreliable suppliers.
>
>Look if what's termed EROI (Energy Returned On Investment: energy out :
>energy in) is not >1 you're just pissing energy away - you need something
>close to 2 to be able to do it and as for the scale... think about it. My
>guess based on the "data" is that with ethanol it's 1.5 best case right
>now. I *would* like to know how the efficiency enhancements were made
>though - a change from ~.5 to ~1.5 is hard to understand. Note again that
>ethanol is still made more efficiently presently from ethylene hydration,
>by the petro-chemicals industry.
>
By your argument and the "Ethanol Energy Balance" report, we should
all stop driving immediately. A g-man will drop by tomorrow to pick
up your keys. 🙂.

>>If producing ethanol inevitably resulted in net reduced available
>>transportation fuel, it would, indeed be silly to pursue it (unless,
>>as I think you believe is happening, someone is trying to create a
>>farm subsidy boondoggle). Heat to distill ethanol, one concern you
>>mentioned, could come from coal or municipal waste. In terms of the
>>national security concerns we really do have, it matters only if, as a
>>result of using, say, coal, to distill ethanol, we wind up imorting
>>more oil.
>
>"Someone" already *has* created a farm subsidy boondoggle - that *is* what
>I've been saying. As for coal, S. Africa found it more practical to make
>HC fuels from it - it fit the downstream infrastructure. Either way you
>*will* get "net reduced available transportation fuel".
>
I really don't see how you get this as a result. The actual
bookkeeping is hard. Markets keep track of dollars, not gallons or
joules, and I don't know how deeply we'll be into this before we know
what's really going on. I don't dispute the motives of the
agricultural lobby, but, just as with Pimentel, the existence of a
motive doesn't make the result wrong.

>Remember that in the early 80s, the US was at <30% dependence on imported
>fuel - a much healthier situation. What happened there?<rhet.>🙂

Part of what happened is that OPEC--Saudi Arabia, in particular--got
smart. They realized that they had to keep the price of oil low
enough to keep renewables out of the market and to discourage
conservation. They have done admirably well. Why the U.S. sees what
is essentially manipulation as U.S. markets as a favor to the U.S. is
a mystery to me.

The modellers, as I said early on, really screwed up in 1974. So many
predictions turned out to be wrong and so much money was
lost--remember WPPS?--that the free marketeers had little trouble
carrying the argument that it was best to let the invisible hand do
the planning.

The problem with the invisible hand is that the current situation
really presents an unacceptable risk for national security.

RM
 
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George Macdonald <fammacd=!SPAM^nothanks@tellurian.com> wrote:
> I thought that Calif. had banned unsaturates completely
> and some north eastern states are/have adopted Calif. regs.

Are you kidding? Do you know how much octane that'd cost?
CA is 10%v max olefins, 4% average but negotiable under formulae.

> I believe it's due more to temp oscillations... *with*

Fuel has a lot of heat capacity and doesn't swing much
except in small tanks.

> the concomitant increased humidity at the higher temp.

If you look at the weather, there's very little change in
absolute humidity (lb water/lb dry air) over a day unless
it rains. The temperature and rel.humidity vary. Nighttime
usually hits dew.

> OK so floating roof tanks have to be scrapped!

Certainly not! Just build a small ethanol tank and
injection pump.

> I think the "tea-kettles" are pretty much all gone now.

Even the big boys still do wet treating. That will be
reduced with lo-sulfur, but not go away entirely.

>>> In many other countries they are effectively already
>>> paying ~4 times what we pay in the U.S. at the pump so
>>> that $100. might easily be supported;
>>No, I don't think it will be easily supported. Many
>>people will have to cut back personal transportation.
> Define "easily". The price (with the taxes)
> is supported in other places.

You used easily first, my definition is many people will
need to cut back personal transportation. High prices
are supported in Europe & Japan because of denser housing
and developed public transportation infrastructure.
Also at a cost in time & arguably quality of life.

> Before the more recent excesses, the US was much closer
> to petroleum self-sufficiency - a little motivation
> would go a long way.

50% is closer than 10%, but still isn't close enough to
cover without real pain.

> Sounds like waffle to me - obviously petroleum is self
> sustaining in its implementation of the energy balance.

No. It is selling the farm. Running the battery down.
More is not being made at any appreciable rate. We're living
off borrowed time. Oil won't run out, but will get expensive,
with serious consequences. Our major hope is to use the fossil
fuel legacy to springboard development beyond needing it.

-- Robert
 
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On Sun, 13 Feb 2005 05:20:00 -0500, George Macdonald
<fammacd=!SPAM^nothanks@tellurian.com> wrote:

>On Sat, 12 Feb 2005 23:47:48 GMT, Robert Redelmeier
><redelm@ev1.net.invalid> wrote:
>
>>George Macdonald <fammacd=!SPAM^nothanks@tellurian.com> wrote:
>>> The funny thing about windpower, to me, is that it has
>>> divided the greens.
>>
>>It _is_ ironic. Many windfarms are nuisances:
>>eyesores, noisy and lethal to birds.
>>
>>> The corrosion is a minor part of the difficulties of
>>> ethanol - the stuff is very hygroscopic and the mixing
>>> problems with petroleum are a nightmare.
>>
>>All can be dealt with. Brazil does, and we do in some
>>mid-West states. The real problem is that very little
>>of any biomass can be fermented to ethanol--only the starch.
>>We need more efficient cellulases that can hydrolyze the
>>B-glucoside linkages in cellulose.
>
>Yes I know it's being used fairly widely in some small %age currently and
>mainly to satisfy oxygenate content regulations - possibly you are not
>aware of all the resulting problems: the mix can not go in a pipeline; it
>can't be stored for any length of time, mixing generally being done into
>the final delivery vehicle and the broken engines *are* real - even small
>amounts of water and you lose octane *big* time. As already mentioned the
>mid-west FFT boondoggle is just Daschle's pork barrel.
>
>I've already mentioned scale and I hardly think the auto business in Brazil
>can be compared with that of the U.S. There are a lot of inconsistent
>studies/numbers floating around on the energy balance of fermentation fuels
>- hard to know whom to believe but there are some fundamentals which can't
>be ignored, like acreage required vs. car-population density, ultimate
>efficiency (even an optimistic 50% loss seems on the high side for
>viability to me) and what you do when you have a low yield of
>corn/bio-mass, for whatever reason.

From "Facing Some of the Hard Truths about Energy" by Lee R Raymond,
Chairman of Exxon-Mobil, Woodrow Wilson International Center for
Scholars, June 7, 2004:

"Currently ethanol from corn is neither an economic nor
energy-efficient choice, as it can require more energy to produce than
it generates in the end, land that would otherwise go to food crops or
forest cover."

"To give you some perspective, if we tried to replace just 10 percent
of the gasoline the US will use in 2020 with corn-based ethanol, we
would need to plant an area equivalent to Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio
[about one-sixth the land currently used in the US to grow crops]
solely to grow the grain needed as feedstock."

Your position is remarkably similar to the position of the Chairman of
Exxon Mobil. 🙂.

The oil equivalents of ethanol from cellulosic feedstock can be three
to seven times higher for the same acreage than ethanol from corn.
The land used for crops like switchgrass can be land that is
agriculturally marginal. The US only imports ten percent of its oil
from the Middle East. The net balance in available transportation
fuel, not energy, is the figure of merit that matters, and even the
energy balance claim by the chairman of Exxon-Mobil is disputed.

The same comments are available at

http://www.energybulletin.net/newswire.php?id=624

>>> As for hydrogen, I just don't see that it works at all as
>>> a transportation fuel, without some major rule-breaking
>>> technology.
>>

The Sierra Club website mentions a problem with hydrogen I had not
heard before, which is that, once liberated from water, a significant
fraction will escape unburned into the atomsphere and thence into
space. We have the same problem with helium, a problem that is mostly
of concern to scientists who work at low temperatures.

RM
 
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On Wed, 16 Feb 2005 00:19:32 -0500, George Macdonald
<fammacd=!SPAM^nothanks@tellurian.com> wrote:

>On Mon, 14 Feb 2005 21:18:02 -0500, Robert Myers <rmyers1400@comcast.net>
>wrote:
>
>>On Mon, 14 Feb 2005 19:31:29 -0500, George Macdonald
>><fammacd=!SPAM^nothanks@tellurian.com> wrote:
>>
>>>On Mon, 14 Feb 2005 07:30:10 -0500, Robert Myers <rmyers1400@comcast.net>
>>>wrote:
>>>
>>
>><snip>
>>

<snip>

>
>>If there is a surprise, it will be war, terrorism, or political
>>instability. I really don't believe that we will see tax policy used
>>to create a smooth transition from reliance on oil, so the transition
>>will be bumpy, but we'll make the transition one way or another.
>
>I was not hinting at tax policy - the price itself will do it... though
>there are "figures" to show that we just pay the tax in a different way
>from the other countries to support our gasoline habit.
>
The problem has been that people are unwilling to invest in renewables
without knowing what the market price for product is going to be.
Letting the price of petroleum float upward on its own means we will
be in serious trouble by the time it is reliably high enough.

<snip>

>>
>>Pimentel, as you know, has been the long pole in the tent. I don't
>>think there is anyone in the business without a motive. 🙂.
>
>Are you saying you *know* that Pimentel has been paid by petro-interests?
>He's right about the scale in any case.
>
No. I am merely observing that he has been the one making the
most-noticed consistently negative assessments.

>>If you want to get fried, take a look at
>>
>>http://egov.oregon.gov/ENERGY/RENEW/Biomass/docs/FORUM/EthanolEnergyBalance.pdf
>>
>>I _think_ the claim is that the net energy balance of *gasoline* is
>>negative. It is such a hot topic, that the three-word,
>>highly-specific google search "ethanol energy balance" gets a thousand
>>hits.
>
>I already came across that URL and knew it was going to make my stomach
>hurt - those guys should be strung up. They substitute coal & natural gas
>for petroleum and say it's better: ethanol is therefore independent of
>petroleum.<ptui> Even bio-bigots freely admit that the EROI with petroleum
>is as high as 20 and ~1.5 for ethanol. The bio-mass people have nothing
>until they have the required scale *with* self-sustaining energy input - it
>ain't gonna happen... without breaking rules.
>
You're still living in that phony "energy" crisis. We don't have an
energy crisis, we have a transporation fuel crisis. Greenhouse gases
may be a concern, but they are not the most immediate concern.

<snip>

>>>
>>By your argument and the "Ethanol Energy Balance" report, we should
>>all stop driving immediately. A g-man will drop by tomorrow to pick
>>up your keys. 🙂.
>
>Could happen... eventually, but I'll be long dead. There's loads of
>petroleum available for decades to come; "peak oil" is just an accounting
>snafu due to the fact that under PSAs (Production Sharing agreements),
>corporate reserve estimates go down as crude prices go up... which was
>jumped on by the anti-petro crowd. The real reserves have not changed...
>apart from increasing inexorably.🙂
>
There's a little more to Peak Oil than that, like the swaggering ghost
of M. King Hubbert. Makes really good copy and sells books.

>>>>If producing ethanol inevitably resulted in net reduced available
>>>>transportation fuel, it would, indeed be silly to pursue it (unless,
>>>>as I think you believe is happening, someone is trying to create a
>>>>farm subsidy boondoggle). Heat to distill ethanol, one concern you
>>>>mentioned, could come from coal or municipal waste. In terms of the
>>>>national security concerns we really do have, it matters only if, as a
>>>>result of using, say, coal, to distill ethanol, we wind up imorting
>>>>more oil.
>>>
>>>"Someone" already *has* created a farm subsidy boondoggle - that *is* what
>>>I've been saying. As for coal, S. Africa found it more practical to make
>>>HC fuels from it - it fit the downstream infrastructure. Either way you
>>>*will* get "net reduced available transportation fuel".
>>>
>>I really don't see how you get this as a result. The actual
>>bookkeeping is hard. Markets keep track of dollars, not gallons or
>>joules, and I don't know how deeply we'll be into this before we know
>>what's really going on. I don't dispute the motives of the
>>agricultural lobby, but, just as with Pimentel, the existence of a
>>motive doesn't make the result wrong.
>
>The current system is extremely efficient - therefore costs are low; the
>corn-based ethanol is quite impossible as a sole source
>
Well, of course. Corn-based ethanol is either a boondoggle (your
view) or a starter program that gets part of the infrastructure in
place (my view, I think). Ethanol from cellulose and lignin is
essential.

<snip>

>
>>The modellers, as I said early on, really screwed up in 1974. So many
>>predictions turned out to be wrong and so much money was
>>lost--remember WPPS?--that the free marketeers had little trouble
>>carrying the argument that it was best to let the invisible hand do
>>the planning.
>
>WPPS? - doesn't ring a bell.

Washington Public Power System. All those nuclear power plants that
were going to be needed to meet demand that never materialized? And
the bonds that were never paid off.

>I dunno what modellers you're talking about
>-- I worked on technical aspects of Project Independence and was fairly
>close to people on other energy modelling efforts for a while -- and I was
>never sure what scenario(s) was being modelled with PI. What was important
>and *was* required was "a model", which had not existed until that point.
>One of the models was widely accepted internationally, was done by very
>talented people, initially at BNL... so I figured it had to be good for
>something; hell OPEC used it. In modified more developed form, it's still
>in use today. It wasn't the modellers who screwed up, it was the
>politico-economists who interpreted, err bent(?), the results.
>
I don't know about the division of labor between the economists and
the technical people.

http://web.mit.edu/jsterman/www/Skeptic's_Guide.pdf

is critical of PIES (Project Independence Energy Something-or-Other)
and of its overly optimistic predictions.

A more detailed memoir is

Hogan, William W. "Energy Modeling for Policy Studies." Operations
Research 50, no. 1 (January / February 2002): 89-95.

They spent more than a million dollars for computer time on work that
could, I am sure, now easily be done on a PC. A PDF of the Hogan
paper can be found on line.

Robert Stobaugh and Daniel Yergin, eds. Energy Future New York: Random
House 1979, Sergio Koreisha and Robert Stobaugh Appendix: Limits to
Models list what they refer to as red flags in the models (pp.
237-240) :

1.Exclusion [e.g. leaving out effect on investment needs of the energy
sector on the rest of the economy]
2.Aggregation. [e.g., lumping different sources of energy:
nuclear<->oil]
3.Range [unwarrented extrapolation]
4.Reversibility [price elasticities are the same going up as coming
down]
5.Time Lag [price and demand adjustments are instantaneous]

Most of these are now fixed in PIES, but the model is so complicated
that it is hard to imagine a reasonable person claiming to understand
how it works.

Since I know you've been in the business, :->, I'll suggest that the
"Energy Crisis" should really be called a system modelling crisis,
brought on in no small part by the work of Jay Forrester, who gave a
fairly recent talk entitled, "All computer models are wrong."
Forrester and the Club of Rome predicted the end of resources, the oil
embargo (only one of about a dozen supply interruptions in the last
half century) gave the idea a push, and the government hired its own
system modellers to fight back.

One model, for which I cannot locate the reference, assumed the price
of oil would rise to something like $12/barrel, at which point it
would effectively be capped by energy available at that equivalent
price from some other energy source (presumably nuclear power).

>>The problem with the invisible hand is that the current situation
>>really presents an unacceptable risk for national security.
>
>Our present and future situation wrt Islamic terror is only slightly
>related to petroleum - it's just one of their clubs to beat our
>media/masses with. There are more fundamental socio-religious issues -
>here's one to wade through on that:
>http://www.wehaitians.com/the%20philosopher%20of%20islamic%20terror.html
>and here's a lighter read on the Euro perspective:
>http://www.nytimes.com/2004/04/26/international/europe/26EURO.html?ex=1108616400&en=66562f140105613e&ei=5070&ex=1085976000&en=404ec182641192df&ei=5087&nl=ep
>
>The Muslim extremists don't hate us for taking their oil; they just hate us
>for what we are and the values we have. Take oil out of the equation and
>nothing changes - they still hate us... and they *are* among us.

Terrorism is one concern, but not the only concern. Oil supplies have
been disrupted about a dozen times since 1951, only three or four of
the incidents could be characterized as terrorism:

www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/security/distable.html

Even a very aggressive biomass program could only affect the problem
at the margins, but consider how cooperative Saudi Arabia became when
they considered the prospect of a U.S. market that didn't need them
anymore, no matter how distant the actual prospect was. I'd like to
meet the man in the Pentagon that doesn't work directly out of the
Office of the Secretary of Defense and who thinks this problem can be
worked militarily. I don't.

RM
 
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On Wed, 16 Feb 2005 00:19:32 -0500, George Macdonald
<fammacd=!SPAM^nothanks@tellurian.com> wrote:

<snip>

>
>Our present and future situation wrt Islamic terror is only slightly
>related to petroleum - it's just one of their clubs to beat our
>media/masses with. There are more fundamental socio-religious issues -
>here's one to wade through on that:
>http://www.wehaitians.com/the%20philosopher%20of%20islamic%20terror.html
>and here's a lighter read on the Euro perspective:
>http://www.nytimes.com/2004/04/26/international/europe/26EURO.html?ex=1108616400&en=66562f140105613e&ei=5070&ex=1085976000&en=404ec182641192df&ei=5087&nl=ep
>
>The Muslim extremists don't hate us for taking their oil; they just hate us
>for what we are and the values we have. Take oil out of the equation and
>nothing changes - they still hate us... and they *are* among us.

Since we are in the company of technologists and technophiles, it may
not be completely superfluous to spend a few words agreeing
emphatically that, to the extent we are in a confrontation with
another culture, ideas and not resources are at the core of the
matter. Ideas, even very bad ideas, can be incredibly powerful.

RM
 
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Robert Myers <rmyers1400@comcast.net> wrote:
> On Wed, 16 Feb 2005 00:19:32 -0500, George Macdonald
>>The Muslim extremists don't hate us for taking their oil;
>>they just hate us for what we are and the values we have.
>>Take oil out of the equation and nothing changes - they still
>>hate us... and they *are* among us.

> Since we are in the company of technologists and technophiles, it
> may not be completely superfluous to spend a few words agreeing
> emphatically that, to the extent we are in a confrontation with
> another culture, ideas and not resources are at the core of the
> matter. Ideas, even very bad ideas, can be incredibly powerful.

Ah, but whose ideas are the bad ones? I think Neal Stephenson hit
the nail on the head with "In the Beginning was the Command Line"
http://www.cryptonomicon.com/beginning.html
especially this excerpt:


Orlando used to have a military installation called McCoy Air Force
Base, with long runways from which B-52s could take off and reach Cuba,
or just about anywhere else, with loads of nukes. But now McCoy has been
scrapped and repurposed. It has been absorbed into Orlando's civilian
airport. The long runways are being used to land 747-loads of tourists
from Brazil, Italy, Russia and Japan, so that they can come to Disney
World and steep in our media for a while.

To traditional cultures, especially word-based ones such as Islam, this
is infinitely more threatening than the B-52s ever were. It is obvious,
to everyone outside of the United States, that our arch-buzzwords,
multiculturalism and diversity, are false fronts that are being used (in
many cases unwittingly) to conceal a global trend to eradicate cultural
differences. The basic tenet of multiculturalism (or "honoring diversity"
or whatever you want to call it) is that people need to stop judging
each other-to stop asserting (and, eventually, to stop believing)
that this is right and that is wrong, this true and that false, one
thing ugly and another thing beautiful, that God exists and has this
or that set of qualities.

The lesson most people are taking home from the Twentieth Century is
that, in order for a large number of different cultures to coexist
peacefully on the globe (or even in a neighborhood) it is necessary
for people to suspend judgment in this way. Hence (I would argue) our
suspicion of, and hostility towards, all authority figures in modern
culture. As David Foster Wallace has explained in his essay "E Unibus
Pluram," this is the fundamental message of television; it is the message
that people take home, anyway, after they have steeped in our media long
enough. It's not expressed in these highfalutin terms, of course. It
comes through as the presumption that all authority figures--teachers,
generals, cops, ministers, politicians--are hypocritical buffoons,
and that hip jaded coolness is the only way to be.

The problem is that once you have done away with the ability to make
judgments as to right and wrong, true and false, etc., there's no real
culture left. All that remains is clog dancing and macrame. The ability
to make judgments, to believe things, is the entire it point of having
a culture. I think this is why guys with machine guns sometimes pop up
in places like Luxor, and begin pumping bullets into Westerners. They
perfectly understand the lesson of McCoy Air Force Base. When their sons
come home wearing Chicago Bulls caps with the bills turned sideways,
the dads go out of their minds.


-- Robert
 
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On Wed, 16 Feb 2005 15:10:08 GMT, Robert Redelmeier
<redelm@ev1.net.invalid> wrote:

<snip>

>
>The lesson most people are taking home from the Twentieth Century is
>that, in order for a large number of different cultures to coexist
>peacefully on the globe (or even in a neighborhood) it is necessary
>for people to suspend judgment in this way. Hence (I would argue) our
>suspicion of, and hostility towards, all authority figures in modern
>culture. As David Foster Wallace has explained in his essay "E Unibus
>Pluram," this is the fundamental message of television; it is the message
>that people take home, anyway, after they have steeped in our media long
>enough. It's not expressed in these highfalutin terms, of course. It
>comes through as the presumption that all authority figures--teachers,
>generals, cops, ministers, politicians--are hypocritical buffoons,
>and that hip jaded coolness is the only way to be.
>
>The problem is that once you have done away with the ability to make
>judgments as to right and wrong, true and false, etc., there's no real
>culture left. All that remains is clog dancing and macrame. The ability
>to make judgments, to believe things, is the entire it point of having
>a culture. I think this is why guys with machine guns sometimes pop up
>in places like Luxor, and begin pumping bullets into Westerners. They
>perfectly understand the lesson of McCoy Air Force Base. When their sons
>come home wearing Chicago Bulls caps with the bills turned sideways,
>the dads go out of their minds.
>
I suppose I asked for this. 🙂

Human beings never go without values, and they never go without belief
systems, and I'm skeptical that the world is any more or less confused
about values and beliefs than it has been at any other time or place.
Humans have hacked, shot, and blown one another to pieces over belief
systems and values at all times and in all places and with whatever
instruments of destruction they could lay their hands on.

What I almost posted in the first place was that, in the face of the
challenge to Western civilization presented by radical Islam, we will
either become much more clear about what it is we wish to defend or we
won't defend it successfully. We _do_ have a culture. It has values.
There is a dominant belief system in our culture. Whether we are
clear enough about what those values and beliefs are and sufficiently
committed to them to stand up to the challenge of radical Islam, I
suppose that either we or our children or our children's children will
discover.

RM
 
Archived from groups: comp.sys.ibm.pc.hardware.chips (More info?)

On Tue, 15 Feb 2005 15:10:05 GMT, Robert Redelmeier
<redelm@ev1.net.invalid> wrote:

>George Macdonald <fammacd=!SPAM^nothanks@tellurian.com> wrote:
>> I thought that Calif. had banned unsaturates completely
>> and some north eastern states are/have adopted Calif. regs.
>
>Are you kidding? Do you know how much octane that'd cost?
>CA is 10%v max olefins, 4% average but negotiable under formulae.

Thought I'd read that - maybe I was having a psychic moment.🙂 We've
"lost" a lot of octane from aromatic reductions and got it back... and
AvGas used to get it with straight-cut... admittedly with large amounts of
Pb. Certainly the gasoline we get here in the NE, stores much longer now
than it used to.

>> I believe it's due more to temp oscillations... *with*
>
>Fuel has a lot of heat capacity and doesn't swing much
>except in small tanks.

And it gets sloshed around a lot and does end up in small tanks. When it
goes from one "environment" to another there are temp changes.

>> the concomitant increased humidity at the higher temp.
>
>If you look at the weather, there's very little change in
>absolute humidity (lb water/lb dry air) over a day unless
>it rains. The temperature and rel.humidity vary. Nighttime
>usually hits dew.

You live in TX - no? We get a wide range of humidity in NJ and I'm sure
other places.

>>>> In many other countries they are effectively already
>>>> paying ~4 times what we pay in the U.S. at the pump so
>>>> that $100. might easily be supported;
>>>No, I don't think it will be easily supported. Many
>>>people will have to cut back personal transportation.
>> Define "easily". The price (with the taxes)
>> is supported in other places.
>
>You used easily first, my definition is many people will
>need to cut back personal transportation. High prices
>are supported in Europe & Japan because of denser housing
>and developed public transportation infrastructure.
>Also at a cost in time & arguably quality of life.

No, first they'll just have to buy, and the mfrs will have to supply, more
economical vehicles. If we lose the SUV I'll be happy. Europe does not
suffer horribly from its prices and people still drive as *needed* there -
people have adapted. I dunno what the states will do that have "automobile
welfare" programs but they don't have that in Europe, unless it's for some
medical reason.

>> Before the more recent excesses, the US was much closer
>> to petroleum self-sufficiency - a little motivation
>> would go a long way.
>
>50% is closer than 10%, but still isn't close enough to
>cover without real pain.

Still a big loss on the books... which would have been easier to maintain
than regain.

>> Sounds like waffle to me - obviously petroleum is self
>> sustaining in its implementation of the energy balance.
>
>No. It is selling the farm. Running the battery down.
>More is not being made at any appreciable rate. We're living
>off borrowed time. Oil won't run out, but will get expensive,
>with serious consequences. Our major hope is to use the fossil
>fuel legacy to springboard development beyond needing it.

Yes we *are* selling the farm right now, when we have gas guzzlers being
effectively subsidized by economy vehicle drivers but I see no way out for
the politicians - gas tax here is apparently unacceptable. We could start
though, by realigning the fuel economy rules for "trucks" (effectively
SUVs) so that they don't have an advantage over cars.

--
Rgds, George Macdonald
 
Archived from groups: comp.sys.ibm.pc.hardware.chips (More info?)

On Tue, 15 Feb 2005 19:34:36 -0500, Robert Myers <rmyers1400@comcast.net>
wrote:

>On Sun, 13 Feb 2005 05:20:00 -0500, George Macdonald
><fammacd=!SPAM^nothanks@tellurian.com> wrote:
>
>>On Sat, 12 Feb 2005 23:47:48 GMT, Robert Redelmeier
>><redelm@ev1.net.invalid> wrote:
>>
>>>George Macdonald <fammacd=!SPAM^nothanks@tellurian.com> wrote:
>>>> The funny thing about windpower, to me, is that it has
>>>> divided the greens.
>>>
>>>It _is_ ironic. Many windfarms are nuisances:
>>>eyesores, noisy and lethal to birds.
>>>
>>>> The corrosion is a minor part of the difficulties of
>>>> ethanol - the stuff is very hygroscopic and the mixing
>>>> problems with petroleum are a nightmare.
>>>
>>>All can be dealt with. Brazil does, and we do in some
>>>mid-West states. The real problem is that very little
>>>of any biomass can be fermented to ethanol--only the starch.
>>>We need more efficient cellulases that can hydrolyze the
>>>B-glucoside linkages in cellulose.
>>
>>Yes I know it's being used fairly widely in some small %age currently and
>>mainly to satisfy oxygenate content regulations - possibly you are not
>>aware of all the resulting problems: the mix can not go in a pipeline; it
>>can't be stored for any length of time, mixing generally being done into
>>the final delivery vehicle and the broken engines *are* real - even small
>>amounts of water and you lose octane *big* time. As already mentioned the
>>mid-west FFT boondoggle is just Daschle's pork barrel.
>>
>>I've already mentioned scale and I hardly think the auto business in Brazil
>>can be compared with that of the U.S. There are a lot of inconsistent
>>studies/numbers floating around on the energy balance of fermentation fuels
>>- hard to know whom to believe but there are some fundamentals which can't
>>be ignored, like acreage required vs. car-population density, ultimate
>>efficiency (even an optimistic 50% loss seems on the high side for
>>viability to me) and what you do when you have a low yield of
>>corn/bio-mass, for whatever reason.
>
>From "Facing Some of the Hard Truths about Energy" by Lee R Raymond,
>Chairman of Exxon-Mobil, Woodrow Wilson International Center for
>Scholars, June 7, 2004:
>
>"Currently ethanol from corn is neither an economic nor
>energy-efficient choice, as it can require more energy to produce than
>it generates in the end, land that would otherwise go to food crops or
>forest cover."
>
>"To give you some perspective, if we tried to replace just 10 percent
>of the gasoline the US will use in 2020 with corn-based ethanol, we
>would need to plant an area equivalent to Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio
>[about one-sixth the land currently used in the US to grow crops]
>solely to grow the grain needed as feedstock."
>
>Your position is remarkably similar to the position of the Chairman of
>Exxon Mobil. 🙂.

To repeat: he's right about the scale; *possibly* wrong about the energy
balance but you have to believe people with bio-interests to get there.

>The oil equivalents of ethanol from cellulosic feedstock can be three
>to seven times higher for the same acreage than ethanol from corn.
>The land used for crops like switchgrass can be land that is
>agriculturally marginal. The US only imports ten percent of its oil
>from the Middle East. The net balance in available transportation
>fuel, not energy, is the figure of merit that matters, and even the
>energy balance claim by the chairman of Exxon-Mobil is disputed.
>
>The same comments are available at

I'm not even going to read that one - the above extract(?) is enough and
the previous one was so bad... but first, to suggest that the net balance
in energy does not matter is heresy... apparently acquired by ignoring that
crude oil *is* stored energy. Second, the fact that the US only imports
10% of its oil from the Middle East is irrelevant... showing a parochial
and utter ignorance of how the oil industry works and assigns production to
refining facilities... not to mention how amazingly efficient the petroleum
industry is.

What's needed now is for the bio-ethanol and bio-diesel guys to fight out
which is the more efficient of the two.🙂 Here's a page which has some
msgs from a guy working on a method (to be patented) to produce bio-diesel
from algae ponds:
http://forums.biodieselnow.com/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=1841&whichpage=1 and
here's a snippet from him:

"On a net energy yield per acre they're similar, but the energy balance (or
preferably Energy Return on Investment) is just as important. With corn,
there is a greater energy input to get that net output than with soy.
Still, neither of them is really suitable for a wide-scale energy crop. The
yield from both is just too low. They are nice crops to use as a
dual-purpose crop, provided there is a market for the meal product, but
they should never be grown specifically for fuel production."

>http://www.energybulletin.net/newswire.php?id=624
>
>>>> As for hydrogen, I just don't see that it works at all as
>>>> a transportation fuel, without some major rule-breaking
>>>> technology.
>>>
>
>The Sierra Club website mentions a problem with hydrogen I had not
>heard before, which is that, once liberated from water, a significant
>fraction will escape unburned into the atomsphere and thence into
>space. We have the same problem with helium, a problem that is mostly
>of concern to scientists who work at low temperatures.

IMO the Sierra Club are just a band of dilettantes/penguins, choose either
or both. "into space" they say... oh my GAWD! Helium - a problem?... what
the hell is it going to do? When I worked in labs many moons ago, helium
was the principal carrier for gas chromatography and may still be for all I
know, so it may be of interest to more than cryogenics. We used to just
vent the stuff at the outlets, though that practice may have changed.

--
Rgds, George Macdonald
 
Archived from groups: comp.sys.ibm.pc.hardware.chips (More info?)

Robert Myers <rmyers1400@comcast.net> wrote:
> face of the challenge to Western civilization presented
> by radical Islam, we will either become much more clear
> about what it is we wish to defend or we won't defend
> it successfully. We _do_ have a culture. It has values.

Yes. I interpret Stephenson as saying those values are
relativist, with over-riding tolerance for differences.
A metaculture, if you will.

Nothing unclear about it, but perhaps a bit more difficult
to grasp than an absolutist culture (X is bad).

> There is a dominant belief system in our culture.

I presume you mean Christianity, particularly Protestantism.

> Whether we are clear enough about what those values and
> beliefs are and sufficiently committed to them to stand up
> to the challenge of radical Islam, I suppose that either
> we or our children or our children's children will discover.

I believe radical Islam has no problem with Christianity,
particularly not the more fundamental varieties. It doesn't
value heathens any more than they do. What grieves them is the
relativist metaculture, and it's requirement to respect heathens.

-- Robert
 
Archived from groups: comp.sys.ibm.pc.hardware.chips (More info?)

George Macdonald <fammacd=!SPAM^nothanks@tellurian.com> wrote:
> ... and AvGas used to get it with straight-cut...

*CHOKE* AvGas is made from Alkylate, mostly iso-octane
(223trimethylpentane) and other isomers. It's _damned_
expensive stuff and very limited in quantity (10%). AvTur is
made from straight-run, but jets don't need octate. In fact
it hurts them bigtime.

> And it gets sloshed around a lot and does end up in small
> tanks. When it goes from one "environment" to another
> there are temp changes.

There are, and vapor space control is important on transfers.

> You live in TX - no? We get a wide range of humidity in
> NJ and I'm sure other places.

Yes, I'm in TX. I know NJ and you should check some time.
Absolute humidity doesnt vary daily as much as relative humidity.

> No, first they'll just have to buy, and the mfrs will have
> to supply, more economical vehicles. If we lose the SUV
> I'll be happy.

So would I be. But I'm not sure it will happen without
something like the "gas guzzler" social pressure of the 1970s.
Even if the gas cost is double--$0.20/mi vs $0.10/mi, people
will pay. Many people already pay $0.30/mi in depreciation
rather than half that if they kept their vehicles longer.

I can understand Europeans getting very upset with the US
for wasting oil. There is only one global pool, and if
the US uses faster, it will run short earlier. I don't
have a good answer, particularly since SUVs (etc) aren't
actually any safer.

> Europe does not suffer horribly from its prices and people
> still drive as *needed* there - people have adapted.

Yes, and don't notice the higher stress from denser housing
and extra time public transport often costs. Sort of like NYC:
The denizens like it, and it appears attractive to tourists.

> We could start though, by realigning the fuel economy
> rules for "trucks" (effectively SUVs) so that they don't
> have an advantage over cars.

You are in favor of CAFE?

-- Robert
 
Archived from groups: comp.sys.ibm.pc.hardware.chips (More info?)

On Wed, 16 Feb 2005 20:08:37 GMT, Robert Redelmeier
<redelm@ev1.net.invalid> wrote:

>Robert Myers <rmyers1400@comcast.net> wrote:
>> face of the challenge to Western civilization presented
>> by radical Islam, we will either become much more clear
>> about what it is we wish to defend or we won't defend
>> it successfully. We _do_ have a culture. It has values.
>
>Yes. I interpret Stephenson as saying those values are
>relativist, with over-riding tolerance for differences.
>A metaculture, if you will.
>
>Nothing unclear about it, but perhaps a bit more difficult
>to grasp than an absolutist culture (X is bad).
>
>> There is a dominant belief system in our culture.
>
>I presume you mean Christianity, particularly Protestantism.
>

None of the ready made labels I can think of would work to describe
the dominant belief system of our culture. I don't think we have much
clarity as to what that belief sytem is, and I'm not ready to attempt
to clarify it here, but we do have a dominant belief system, and we do
have values.

>> Whether we are clear enough about what those values and
>> beliefs are and sufficiently committed to them to stand up
>> to the challenge of radical Islam, I suppose that either
>> we or our children or our children's children will discover.
>
>I believe radical Islam has no problem with Christianity,
>particularly not the more fundamental varieties. It doesn't
>value heathens any more than they do. What grieves them is the
>relativist metaculture, and it's requirement to respect heathens.
>
We need to focus on our own beliefs and let Islam focus on its own
beliefs. We have a hard enough time understanding what we believe in
as it is, without trying to see it through the distorting lens of
another culture.

RM
 
Archived from groups: comp.sys.ibm.pc.hardware.chips (More info?)

On Wed, 16 Feb 2005 19:43:10 -0500, George Macdonald
<fammacd=!SPAM^nothanks@tellurian.com> wrote:

>On Tue, 15 Feb 2005 19:34:36 -0500, Robert Myers <rmyers1400@comcast.net>
>wrote:
>
>>On Sun, 13 Feb 2005 05:20:00 -0500, George Macdonald
>><fammacd=!SPAM^nothanks@tellurian.com> wrote:
>>
>>>On Sat, 12 Feb 2005 23:47:48 GMT, Robert Redelmeier
>>><redelm@ev1.net.invalid> wrote:
>>>
>>>>George Macdonald <fammacd=!SPAM^nothanks@tellurian.com> wrote:

<snip>

>>
>>Your position is remarkably similar to the position of the Chairman of
>>Exxon Mobil. 🙂.
>
>To repeat: he's right about the scale; *possibly* wrong about the energy
>balance but you have to believe people with bio-interests to get there.
>
Here's an aggressive effort (from the NRDC) to make it all look
reasonable:

http://www.bio.org/ind/GrowingEnergy.pdf

They get the required land down to about 100 million acres of
switchgrass (as opposed to 30 million acres currently under
cultivation as switchgrass in the Conservation Resource Program out of
700 million acres of U.S. cropland and rangeland).

The assumptions are aggressive, and it is not a near-term solution.
Figure 1 of the Executive Summary shows a ten-percentish contribution
to gasoline demand only by about 2020.

<snip>

>... to suggest that the net balance
>in energy does not matter is heresy... apparently acquired by ignoring that
>crude oil *is* stored energy.

But so what? You can't hook your car up to a nuclear reactor or a
coal-fired plant or run it on waste heat from biomass, but you can use
that energy in making ethanol if you have to.

>Second, the fact that the US only imports
>10% of its oil from the Middle East is irrelevant... showing a parochial
>and utter ignorance of how the oil industry works and assigns production to
>refining facilities... not to mention how amazingly efficient the petroleum
>industry is.
>

I'm well aware that the U.S. has a commitment to sharing resources in
case of a shortage. If you don't think that actually shutting Middle
Eastern oil out of the U.S. market would change world politics
considerably, I'll politely ask you to reconsider your opinion. 🙂.

>What's needed now is for the bio-ethanol and bio-diesel guys to fight out
>which is the more efficient of the two.🙂 Here's a page which has some
>msgs from a guy working on a method (to be patented) to produce bio-diesel
>from algae ponds:
>http://forums.biodieselnow.com/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=1841&whichpage=1 and
>here's a snippet from him:
>
>"On a net energy yield per acre they're similar, but the energy balance (or
>preferably Energy Return on Investment) is just as important. With corn,
>there is a greater energy input to get that net output than with soy.
>Still, neither of them is really suitable for a wide-scale energy crop. The
>yield from both is just too low. They are nice crops to use as a
>dual-purpose crop, provided there is a market for the meal product, but
>they should never be grown specifically for fuel production."
>
On a net energy basis, ethanol from seed (corn or beans) is a
non-starter--too much energy content is just thrown away. Bio-diesel
from seed also throws a large part of the energy content away.
Ethanol from cellulose has to be made to work.

>>http://www.energybulletin.net/newswire.php?id=624
>>
>>>>> As for hydrogen, I just don't see that it works at all as
>>>>> a transportation fuel, without some major rule-breaking
>>>>> technology.
>>>>
>>
>>The Sierra Club website mentions a problem with hydrogen I had not
>>heard before, which is that, once liberated from water, a significant
>>fraction will escape unburned into the atomsphere and thence into
>>space. We have the same problem with helium, a problem that is mostly
>>of concern to scientists who work at low temperatures.
>
>IMO the Sierra Club are just a band of dilettantes/penguins, choose either
>or both. "into space" they say... oh my GAWD! Helium - a problem?... what
>the hell is it going to do? When I worked in labs many moons ago, helium
>was the principal carrier for gas chromatography and may still be for all I
>know, so it may be of interest to more than cryogenics. We used to just
>vent the stuff at the outlets, though that practice may have changed.

Significant quantities of helium are available only as a byproduct of
natural gas production. A naive calculation shows that a signficant
fraction of a Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution of helium and hydrogen
reach earth escape velocity at modest temperatures.

That's something to worry about for a hydrogen economy? I have no
idea. I'm sure there are bigger conerns.

RM
 
Archived from groups: comp.sys.ibm.pc.hardware.chips (More info?)

On Wed, 16 Feb 2005 15:10:08 GMT, Robert Redelmeier
<redelm@ev1.net.invalid> wrote:

>Robert Myers <rmyers1400@comcast.net> wrote:
>> On Wed, 16 Feb 2005 00:19:32 -0500, George Macdonald
>>>The Muslim extremists don't hate us for taking their oil;
>>>they just hate us for what we are and the values we have.
>>>Take oil out of the equation and nothing changes - they still
>>>hate us... and they *are* among us.
>
>> Since we are in the company of technologists and technophiles, it
>> may not be completely superfluous to spend a few words agreeing
>> emphatically that, to the extent we are in a confrontation with
>> another culture, ideas and not resources are at the core of the
>> matter. Ideas, even very bad ideas, can be incredibly powerful.
>
>Ah, but whose ideas are the bad ones?

Read Berman's article - it opened my eyes. The crux of the hate is founded
on the fact that Islam disallows the separation of the secular and sacred
life... which most other religions at least tolerate. According to
fundamental laws of Isam it is the duty of every Muslim to establish Sharia
as the rule of the land. There's no scope for rationalization or
accomodation of other beliefs here - you can conform or die.

--
Rgds, George Macdonald
 
Archived from groups: comp.sys.ibm.pc.hardware.chips (More info?)

On Thu, 17 Feb 2005 03:45:08 GMT, Robert Redelmeier
<redelm@ev1.net.invalid> wrote:

>George Macdonald <fammacd=!SPAM^nothanks@tellurian.com> wrote:
>> ... and AvGas used to get it with straight-cut...
>
>*CHOKE* AvGas is made from Alkylate, mostly iso-octane
>(223trimethylpentane) and other isomers. It's _damned_
>expensive stuff and very limited in quantity (10%). AvTur is
>made from straight-run, but jets don't need octate. In fact
>it hurts them bigtime.

You mean 2,2,4-trimethyl pentane. Yes Avgas was expensive and
iso-paraffins are obviously what you need - I was referring to the old
115/145, (even 10/130) which was a straight-cut stream heavily loaded with
Pb; the stuff I "saw" didn't really need any oxidation inhibitor. AvTur
was basically kerosene. We've come a long way since the old days with
processes to produce octane and though we don't have lead, I'd think "we"
could do better. Hell they're hydrocracking lubes now and calling it
"synthetic".

>> And it gets sloshed around a lot and does end up in small
>> tanks. When it goes from one "environment" to another
>> there are temp changes.
>
>There are, and vapor space control is important on transfers.

Does that include the gas pump guy who leaves your cap out in the pissing
rain... and/or blizzard?🙂 Have you not also noticed that truck drivers
are err, difficult to discipline? All I've been trying to get across is
that any controls on water contamination have had to be tightened up
because of gasohol.

>> You live in TX - no? We get a wide range of humidity in
>> NJ and I'm sure other places.
>
>Yes, I'm in TX. I know NJ and you should check some time.
>Absolute humidity doesnt vary daily as much as relative humidity.

I see the effects and I'm sure they can be seen in S.Texas - it doesn't
matter what ambient temp is if the "object" is at a lower temp.

>> No, first they'll just have to buy, and the mfrs will have
>> to supply, more economical vehicles. If we lose the SUV
>> I'll be happy.
>
>So would I be. But I'm not sure it will happen without
>something like the "gas guzzler" social pressure of the 1970s.
>Even if the gas cost is double--$0.20/mi vs $0.10/mi, people
>will pay. Many people already pay $0.30/mi in depreciation
>rather than half that if they kept their vehicles longer.
>
>I can understand Europeans getting very upset with the US
>for wasting oil. There is only one global pool, and if
>the US uses faster, it will run short earlier. I don't
>have a good answer, particularly since SUVs (etc) aren't
>actually any safer.
>
>> Europe does not suffer horribly from its prices and people
>> still drive as *needed* there - people have adapted.
>
>Yes, and don't notice the higher stress from denser housing
>and extra time public transport often costs. Sort of like NYC:
>The denizens like it, and it appears attractive to tourists.
>
>> We could start though, by realigning the fuel economy
>> rules for "trucks" (effectively SUVs) so that they don't
>> have an advantage over cars.
>
>You are in favor of CAFE?

If we pay the real cost of our gasoline in other Federal taxes to support
our "world police force", we need something to curb usage. If we're going
to have it, it should be applied fairly and across the board, with possible
exceptions for real necessary commercial usage. The other
angle/alternative on this I detest: the "CO2 pollution" taxes in Europe and
recently introduced in Calif.

--
Rgds, George Macdonald