Nvidia will probably jump straight to DX11. If Win7 is supposed to be here one year from now, and new cards will come in the first half of 09, these are just the die shrinks that we've been talking about right? There is no new functionality here. Nvidia will then either need to come out with DX11 cards in time for win7, or move to DX10.1 and be behind. I get the feeling they will do the die shrink that they've been working on, then teach pigs to fly so they can come out with DX11 cards in time for win7.
Rangers, I doubt it will be a new arch. A heavy reworked one and one that includes DX10.1/11, but it will still be based on the GTX series.