Industry analyst firm Trendfocus reports that Microsoft is moving to force OEMs to stop using HDDs for boot drives.
Microsoft's Reportedly Trying to Kill HDD Boot Drives for Windows 11 PCs by 2023 : Read more
I'd like to assume this will be a positive change, but there are a few things nagging me about this. After skimming some of the comments, I can see that the sentiment I'm about to share isn't just held by me. I'll go point-by-point, to keep things in some kind of order, I suppose. Also, ignoring the fact that Windows in general could just become a lighter-weight OS to make hardware age a little slower. Linux is a pretty good example of how to make things last if you know what you're doing. Focusing primarily on the OEM/ODM front instead for this one...
1.
A recent executive brief from data storage industry analyst firm
Trendfocus reports that OEMs have disclosed that Microsoft is pushing them to drop HDDs as the primary storage device in pre-built
Windows 11 PCs and use SSDs instead, with the current deadlines for the switchover set for 2023.
What will this change incur in the OEM/ODM market? I can see a few possibilities for how this could go down:
- OEMs/ODMs increase prices to accommodate for the new requirements, and SSDs picked are okay for regular use
- Prices remain almost unchanged, but OEMs use low-(quality/performance) SSDs to meet minimum requirements
- OEMs/ODMs provide varying SSD solutions, as another differentiator between low-end and high-end options
- OEMs/ODMs don't budge, and leave SSDs as an option for primarily high-end options for the time being
- HDDs become the default low-end option, but still provide higher capacities than SSD-equipped options
- OEMs/ODMs push the switchover date temporarily or indefinitely, leaving Microsoft in a bad mood
- SSHDs somehow start to make a comeback, and I head-desk in utter confusion
- Some combination of the options above, for product tiering/differentiation that convinces buyers to spend more
Drive type and quality will now become yet another factor for the layman to shop around. I also wonder how this will affect of both HDDs and the pre-builts they come in, years down the line. This could get interesting...
2.
Interestingly, these actions from Microsoft come without any firm SSD requirement listed for Windows 11 PCs, and OEMs have pushed back on the deadlines. We reached out to Microsoft for comment on the matter, but the company says it "has nothing to share on this topic at this time."
Well, that may be a small issue. If Microsoft doesn't tell what kind of SSD needs to me used, is anything fair game? :
- eMMC
- mSATA
- SATA2/3 (7-pin)
- SAS
- SATA over M.2
- NVMe
Of course, I threw in a few odd balls for laughs. Also, what about DRAM-equipped SSDs vs. ones without DRAM? The list is nowhere near exhaustive for available bootable SSD options. But I think the list of existing SSD options is long enough to warrant some specificity. Each one of these will perform differently, and unsuspecting end-users (who expect pretty much any SSD to be faster than an HDD) may end up with a nasty surprise when the dust settles. If anything goes, how will this impact the buying experience? Won't features like DirectStorage need high-speed NVMe SSDs to stretch their legs? If so, then will this restrict the feature to only high-end options from OEMs/ODMs?
3.
Microsoft's
most current(opens in new tab) list of hardware requirements calls for a '64 GB or larger storage device' for Windows 11, so an SSD isn't a minimum requirement for a standard install. However, Microsoft stipulates that two features,
DirectStorage and the Windows Subsystem for Android(opens in new tab), require an SSD, but you don't have to use those features. It is unclear whether or not Microsoft plans to change the minimum specifications for Windows 11 PCs after the 2023 switchover to SSDs for pre-built systems.
Already asked about DirectStorage, but I wonder how WSA (Windows Subsystem for Android) will do on different types of SSDs. On a random note, I just ran into this online:
Reminded me of the time I walked into a Java programming course, and almost no one knew what RAM was. Or why memory management, for programming in general, is important. We're at a point where most of the population walks around with at least 2 computing devices, possibly without knowing it, and don't know how to use much of it at all. "Where did you save your project?", becomes an advanced question, because users don't know what a file is - let alone a filesystem. If we overlay this onto the SSD situation, I wonder how that'll turn out. People who don't know what an SSD is? People who don't know that computers can have multiple drives? Let's cut to the chase - how will we fair when the tech-illiterate have to deal with this?
4.
The move to force OEMs to adopt SSDs instead of HDDs for boot volumes makes plenty of sense from a performance standpoint —
SSDs are multitudes of orders faster for operating systems than hard drives, thus providing a snappier, more responsive user experience. Many laptops and desktop PCs already ship with an SSD for the boot drive, and some use a secondary hard drive for bulk storage of large files, like pictures and videos. However, some lower-end models, particularly in developing/emerging markets, still use a hard drive as the boot device.
The first sentence assumes that OEMs and ODMs won't cut corners and find a way to screw this up. If they use DRAM-less SSDs or cheap SATA SSDs, how will that go? Also, shipping with a secondary HDD as a mass storage device only works for users that understand the concept well enough to move their large and/or less used files to the larger HDD, to save their boot drive for (potentially smaller) files they will access more often. I've dealt with this issue before personally, and burned few a few weekends as a result. It's a good setup, for those who understand how to use it.
5.
As always, the issue with switching all systems to SSDs boils down to cost: Trendfocus Vice President John Chen tells us that replacing a 1TB HDD requires stepping down to a low-cost 256 GB SSD, which OEMs don't consider to be enough capacity for most users. Conversely, stepping up to a 512 GB SSD would 'break the budget' for lower-end machines with a strict price limit.
And for users that tend to quickly fill up their devices' internal storage, I guess paid cloud solutions will have to be used? Not the only option, since one can always clone their data to a larger drive in the future when the time comes. But, do most regular people actually consider this option? Maybe I'm just not convinced that 512GB is enough in 2022 when everyone's phones can record 4K HDR, and people go around installing a butt-ton of apps and games on their devices. It's not everyone that's doing so, but I've dealt with this issue often enough to conclude that less than 1TB is a bit thin now. What are people buying as storage options for their phones, I wonder? Also, didn't I end up asking about some of this in points 1 and 2?
6.
The majority of PCs in developed markets have already transitioned to SSDs for boot drives, but there are exceptions. Chen notes that it is possible that Microsoft could make some exceptions, but the firm predicts that dual-drive desktop PCs and gaming laptops with both an SSD for the boot drive and an HDD for bulk storage will be the only mass-market PCs with an HDD.
Well, the first part sounds promising...
But what kinds of SSDs are they putting in this machines? Are they faster and/or better than HDDs that were used before? I mentioned the hybrid config option (SSD+HDD) in point 4. To add onto that, how many non-techies actually know how to troubleshoot this when a drive seems to disappear from Explorer?
7.
As you can see in the table above, even though SSD pricing dropped rapidly during the first few years of adoption, you'll still pay far less per gigabyte of HDD storage than you would with an SSD.
Can't deny that. I wonder how that will affect consumer decision making if they have to pick between an eMMC-equipped laptop and a SATA SSD equipped laptop. Will they just pick the cheaper one if both appear to have the same amount of storage? Will OEMs/ODMs warn people that eMMC is pretty slow? Or that DRAM-less SSDs can be as slow as HDDs in some scenarios (but not all)? Will most consumers know better? Or will a ton of people walk away with buyers' remorse when this drops?
8.
Be aware that storage pricing can fluctuate wildly and OEMs undoubtedly pay less, but the high-performance
1TB NVMe SK hynix Platinum P41(opens in new tab), which tops our list of
best SSDs, retails for around $0.14 a gigabyte. Moving down to the extreme low-end SATA SSDs finds the bargain-basement
1TB Crucial BX500(opens in new tab) for $0.08 per gigabyte. In comparison, a
1TB Seagate Barracuda(opens in new tab) hard drive costs a mere $0.05-per-GB.
How will fluctuations in NAND prices impact OEM/ODM pricing on pre-builts if we have another chip shortage? Will it be more severe, or will things not change much from how they are now? What about cars and other products that are quickly becoming more computerised by the day?
9.
It's unclear what measures, if any, Microsoft would take with OEMs if they don't comply with its wishes, and the company has decided not to comment on the matter. Trendfocus says the switchover will have implications for HDD demand next year. We'll update you if we learn more, but it looks like SSDs will finally supplant HDDs entirely in consumer PCs soon. Hopefully we won't see the historical downward trend of SSD pricing flatten as their biggest competitor on cost, the HDD, recedes completely into bulk storage applications.
I think I briefly asked about that in point 1. I'm no oracle, but I think HDDs are still going to be around for quite a while if this goes anything like what I think may happen. I think that Microsoft needs to clear a few things up before this goes into effect.
Maybe I'm just being too pessimistic or short-sighted about this? Who knows...
EDIT: So, I just had 2 of my pals on Discord remind me that Intel Optane exists, and was supposed to help with this. Raise your hand if you use Optane!