News Nvidia CEO says US will take 20 Years to achieve chip self-reliance, despite chipmaking boom and subsidies

[Admin]

Jen-Hsun Huang is skeptical about massive semiconductor projects in the U.S., saying it will take the U.S. 10 to 20 years to have independent chip manufacturing.

Nvidia CEO says US will take 20 Years to achieve chip self-reliance, despite chipmaking boom and subsidies : Read more

 

[PEnns]

"The U.S. government is actively pursuing policies to increase chip manufacturing within its borders.

So far, the plan has been a success as Intel, TSMC, and Samsung Foundry are building their advanced and leading-edge fabs in the USA. Furthermore, Micron is set to bring advanced 3D NAND and DRAM memory production to America for the first time in decades. Intel is also building advanced chip packaging facilities in America. There are also companies, such as GlobalFoundries, that produce chips on specialty and mature process technologies in the U.S. "

Someone should send Mr. Jen-Hsun Huang a link to this article.

Or at least tell him to read some tech news occasionally.

 

[edzieba]

"The U.S. government is actively pursuing policies to increase chip manufacturing within its borders.

So far, the plan has been a success as Intel, TSMC, and Samsung Foundry are building their advanced and leading-edge fabs in the USA. Furthermore, Micron is set to bring advanced 3D NAND and DRAM memory production to America for the first time in decades. Intel is also building advanced chip packaging facilities in America. There are also companies, such as GlobalFoundries, that produce chips on specialty and mature process technologies in the U.S. "

Someone should send Mr. Jen-Hsun Huang a link to this article.

Or at least tell him to read some tech news occasionally.

The supply chain constitutes more than just fabs. You need Silicon mines, refineries, and casters. Wafer producers. Sources and refiners of all support gasses and fluids. Mines and refiners of metals used during doping and FEoL and BEoL processed. Manufacturers of not jsut support ICs but also passives. Miners and refiners of the materials used in those passives (e.,g. who manufacturers the chemicals doped onto the substrates sandwiched between the electrodes wrapped into an electrolytic cap?), Manufactuters of FRP and simialr PCB sunstrate materials. Manufacturers of PCBAs.

And so on and so forth. The supply chain is deep for electronics (even ignoring cases or other packaging), just having a fab does not onshore much of that supply chain alone.

Maybe you should read some tech news occasionally?

 

[thisisaname]

The supply chain constitutes more than just fabs. You need Silicon mines, refineries, and casters. Wafer producers. Sources and refiners of all support gasses and fluids. Mines and refiners of metals used during doping and FEoL and BEoL processed. Manufacturers of not jsut support ICs but also passives. Miners and refiners of the materials used in those passives (e.,g. who manufacturers the chemicals doped onto the substrates sandwiched between the electrodes wrapped into an electrolytic cap?), Manufactuters of FRP and simialr PCB sunstrate materials. Manufacturers of PCBAs.

And so on and so forth. The supply chain is deep for electronics (even ignoring cases or other packaging), just having a fab does not onshore much of that supply chain alone.

Maybe you should read some tech news occasionally?

True but if you do not build the fabs there is no reason for anyone to do the other things locally either.
It will be a lot longer than 20 years if you never try.

 

[JamesJones44]

Manufacturing and self reliance for the supply chain are two very different things. For supply chain self reliance I agree that we are decades away. You can't replace those resources especially hard resources like metals and material refinement overnight. Start with importing them, building local sources, then switch, but all that takes time.

 

[PEnns]

The supply chain constitutes more than just fabs. You need Silicon mines, refineries, and casters. Wafer producers. Sources and refiners of all support gasses and fluids. Mines and refiners of metals used during doping and FEoL and BEoL processed. Manufacturers of not jsut support ICs but also passives. Miners and refiners of the materials used in those passives (e.,g. who manufacturers the chemicals doped onto the substrates sandwiched between the electrodes wrapped into an electrolytic cap?), Manufactuters of FRP and simialr PCB sunstrate materials. Manufacturers of PCBAs.

And so on and so forth. The supply chain is deep for electronics (even ignoring cases or other packaging), just having a fab does not onshore much of that supply chain alone.

Maybe you should read some tech news occasionally?

Well of course, nobody said it'll happen overnight!

there are tons of logistics involved. But to blissfully claim / agree with Jen, it will take more than 20 years is beyond absurd.

This is 2023 not the 18th century.!! Heck, Planning and going to the moon didn't take 20 years of preparation.

 

[evdjj3j]

"It is not a really practical thing for a decade or two."

Please update the title to reflect what he really said. He didn't say it will take 20 years, he said it will take 10-20 years.

 

[parkerthon]

I think he’s probably right. 10-20 years to reverse 60+ years of APAC region semiconductor manufacturing dominance seems reasonable assuming we don’t lose interest or change course along the way which I feel is far more likely to happen. If China retracts its claws we might abandon this quickly simply due to pressure from capitalism to resume globalization in the name of world peace and prosperity(and also bigger profits). I think what we’re doing is necessary but at the same time it wreaks of protectionism even if it’s justified for national security. I am just wondering if we will be able to onshore everything in supply chain long term without subsidies. I sure hope so as the alternative is being at China’s mercy.

 

[watzupken]

Having fabs onshore is only a fraction of the equation and does not equate to success. And to be fair, fab is probably one of the easiest part to solve as long as you throw money at it. This is not a game where fabs will magically churn out chips with no other resources required. Key to the challenge will be training a suitable workforce and obtaining raw materials. While it is possible to diversify where they source raw material, onshoring every aspect of it is not possible.

 

[kjfatl]

This problem is 'easily' resolved by US government policy.
Step 1, insist that all parts by the US military are 100% sourced by at least 3 distinct manufacturing sources, possibly owned by the same corporation. Financial penalties for failure to comply increase each year based on the amount of sourcing from non-friendly nations. (If Intel builds a part in Germany and Israel and can also builds it here, we don't care which source is used). For the military, exceptions could be made for unique items such as an LCD panels for a low volume aircraft when 20 years of parts are procured and stored in multiple secure locations.
Step 2. Apply the same rules for all items procured by fungible federal tax dollars. For example, purchasing a PC at Best Buy using Federal Student Loans or for use in a state government agency that accepts any Federal funds would not be be permitted unless it was fully US(or friendly nation) sourced.

 

[rabbit4me2]

Sorry this guy is the enemy they would sell their stuff to China and a heartbeat for the money. Who wouldn't It's the American way? Chinese still our patents all the time we can't do anything. We try to copy our product and we get sued beyond belief. No foreign companies should own American land treat us like they treat them It's only fair. Discover reminds me of the musk dude both complete idiots they have money and people listen.

 

[Co BIY]

Manufacturing and self reliance for the supply chain are two very different things. For supply chain self reliance I agree that we are decades away. You can't replace those resources especially hard resources like metals and material refinement overnight. Start with importing them, building local sources, then switch, but all that takes time.

Decoupling from a small number of unstable and hostile sources while remaining open to other worldwide sources is much easier than trying to force everything to be locally produced.

 

[newtechldtech]

It is not about self reliance , it is about cost.

 

[toooooot]

Having fabs onshore is only a fraction of the equation and does not equate to success. And to be fair, fab is probably one of the easiest part to solve as long as you throw money at it. This is not a game where fabs will magically churn out chips with no other resources required. Key to the challenge will be training a suitable workforce and obtaining raw materials. While it is possible to diversify where they source raw material, onshoring every aspect of it is not possible.

Obtaining raw materials is not that hard. In fact, this stuff was outsourced from USA because it is not nature friendly or otherwise just costs more than it is in China for example.
One thing I agree with you that is that it is a complex manufacturing chain.
You have to start somewhere. Or at least decrease reliance on China.
Seriously, with Xi in full control of 1 billion second economy nation, does anyone still believe it is a good idea to rely on this country? All regimes are the same. They gather power until one day they think they are strong enough to take what is theirs. And honestly, I would be happy if Russia lost Siberia. Rotten empire stubbed China in the back and simply said it is mine now with those territories. But no, it cannot end well.

 

[JamesJones44]

Decoupling from a small number of unstable and hostile sources while remaining open to other worldwide sources is much easier than trying to force everything to be locally produced.

I wasn't implying they shouldn't diversify sources, I was merely illustrating that changing sources takes time to develop and can't always just be shifted. For example Rare Earths will require someone somewhere (local or otherwise) to build out the infrastructure around them to support supplying those materials. Currently a single country has the lion share of production of Rare Earths.