Nvidia Has A Crypto-Hangover, Mid-Range Turing Cards Likely Delayed

[PaulAlcorn]

A worrying glut of graphics cards impacted Nvidia's stock price, and also means the company likely won't ship mid-range Turing cards for several quarters.

Nvidia Has A Crypto-Hangover, Mid-Range Turing Cards Likely Delayed : Read more

 

[velocityg4]

Not surprising. Considering used GTX 1060 6GB go for $150 and new are mostly still listed in the $250 to $300 range. It will make them even harder to unload. They're trying to get more for them now than they were selling for 18 months ago (via PCPartpicker). These cards are two and half years old and they are still trying to sell them at or above the original MSRP of $249.

 

[mortemas]

Wait, there's a glut AND high prices at the same time? This can only mean that nVidia tightly controls the flow of its existing inventory of chips like DeBeers controlled the supply of diamonds.

 

[kinggremlin]

Did you read the whole article? Channel partners haven't lowered prices as quickly as expected. This has nothing to do with Nvidia. A huge glut of product is not a goal for Nvidia. Resellers continue to price gouge their customers. This is how it works in all markets. When a shortage takes place, prices shoot up. However, when demand subsides, the prices don't fall nearly as fast as they shot up.

 

[PapaCrazy]

Nvidia priced Turing high to make Pascal look cheap, but a dollar is still a dollar and people can't earn them any quicker than before. High prices don't move volume. Once Pascal is all gone, they think with Turing the situation is going to get... better? ha

 

[littleleo]

People were shell-socked at the ridiculously high price of the RTX series, at least I know I was. I was thinking of upgrading my 970 but I'm not paying the inflated prices out there for GPUs. I'm fine staying with what I got I can play everything I want at decent FPS so no pressing need for me. If price get down to what I feel is reasonable I may get a new GPU, but I decide what is reasonable for me not Nvidia or their board partners, and $1K for a GPU isn't in the ballpark. If they want me to buy, then they have to have something attractive to offer besides a new tech no current games uses and maybe 5-7 will next year (really) and a $1K+ price tag for a card that catches on fire. Sorry Tom's "Just Buy It" article didn't move me to waste my green stamps on this mess.

 

[kinggremlin]

NVidia isn't selling 2080's at $800 to move 1060's. They did it to move 1080ti's. And it worked perfectly. Go look at the gamersnexus youtube video on this. They saw a huge surge in 1080ti sales through their referral program right when the rtx line was announced. Over 60% of all cards purchased were 1080ti's. That's ridiculous for such a highend card. There have been plenty of recent articles reporting on the dwindling stock of 1080ti's. Nvidia's RTX pricing scheme has absolutely achieved the goal of clearing highend Pascal stock.

They're trying to clear 1060 stock by not releasing a 2060 as the above article stated.

 

[littleleo]

Did you read the whole article? Channel partners haven't lowered prices as quickly as expected. This has nothing to do with Nvidia. A huge glut of product is not a goal for Nvidia. Resellers continue to price gouge their customers. This is how it works in all markets. When a shortage takes place, prices shoot up. However, when demand subsides, the prices don't fall nearly as fast as they shot up.

I agree and disagree Nvidia has a lot to do with the prices. They sell the chips to the board partners so the prices they sell to the board partners affect what the partners can sell them for. If you pay $300 for a GPU you can't build a card for it and sell it for less. Plus many times Nvidia has MSP (minimum selling price) levels set, so they are more involved than you think. They just got very greedy from the mining crazy. They were hoping the market had adjusted to the higher prices as the new norm.

 

[stdragon]

NVidia isn't selling 2080's at $800 to move 1060's. They did it to move 1080ti's. And it worked perfectly. Go look at the gamersnexus youtube video on this. They saw a huge surge in 1080ti sales through their referral program right when the rtx line was announced. Over 60% of all cards purchased were 1080ti's. That's ridiculous for such a highend card. There have been plenty of recent articles reporting on the dwindling stock of 1080ti's. Nvidia's RTX pricing scheme has absolutely achieved the goal of clearing highend Pascal stock.

They're trying to clear 1060 stock by not releasing a 2060 as the above article stated.

That's diabolically genius!

 

[hannibal]

If nvidia is smart (not considering customers) they make the new Turing middle range cards using 7nm... And maybe start selling them next year... maybe autumn, maybe earlier if 1060 stock runs out. If it does not... the best bang for the Nvidia would be the holiday season at the end of 2019...
Let's hope that warehouses are empty from old cards by the summer... Other vice we have very boring half year ahead...

 

[kinggremlin]

Did you read the whole article? Channel partners haven't lowered prices as quickly as expected. This has nothing to do with Nvidia. A huge glut of product is not a goal for Nvidia. Resellers continue to price gouge their customers. This is how it works in all markets. When a shortage takes place, prices shoot up. However, when demand subsides, the prices don't fall nearly as fast as they shot up.

I agree and disagree Nvidia has a lot to do with the prices. They sell the chips to the board partners so the prices they sell to the board partners affect what the partners can sell them for. If you pay $300 for a GPU you can't build a card for it and sell it for less. Plus many times Nvidia has MSP (minimum selling price) levels set, so they are more involved than you think. They just got very greedy from the mining crazy. They were hoping the market had adjusted to the higher prices as the new norm.

Nvidia has no control over how much over MSRP re-sellers charge. They can't tell any company selling their products to lower prices. During the height of the mining craze, Nvidia could have given away their GPU's for free to AIB's, and there would have been no price drop. The market charges what the customer is willing to pay. Remember, Nvidia never raised the prices of the cards on their website during the few seconds they were in stock during the mining craze. They always sold for MSRP. Nvidia certainly benefited from being able to sell every GPU they could produce, but they didn't get the benefit of higher margins because all the price gouging was done by the distributors and re-sellers which NVidia lacks any legal power to prevent.

 

[elbert]

I dont buy it because a 2060 should perform near a 1070. Why not launch the 2060 at $299~319 if its really a glut of 1060's. A glut of 1060's should only effect a 2050~2050ti unless the 2060 really falls flat for a upgrade.

 

[Dunzaus]

I agree

 

[PapaCrazy]

Did you read the whole article? Channel partners haven't lowered prices as quickly as expected. This has nothing to do with Nvidia. A huge glut of product is not a goal for Nvidia. Resellers continue to price gouge their customers. This is how it works in all markets. When a shortage takes place, prices shoot up. However, when demand subsides, the prices don't fall nearly as fast as they shot up.

I agree and disagree Nvidia has a lot to do with the prices. They sell the chips to the board partners so the prices they sell to the board partners affect what the partners can sell them for. If you pay $300 for a GPU you can't build a card for it and sell it for less. Plus many times Nvidia has MSP (minimum selling price) levels set, so they are more involved than you think. They just got very greedy from the mining crazy. They were hoping the market had adjusted to the higher prices as the new norm.

Nvidia has no control over how much over MSRP re-sellers charge. They can't tell any company selling their products to lower prices. During the height of the mining craze, Nvidia could have given away their GPU's for free to AIB's, and there would have been no price drop. The market charges what the customer is willing to pay. Remember, Nvidia never raised the prices of the cards on their website during the few seconds they were in stock during the mining craze. They always sold for MSRP. Nvidia certainly benefited from being able to sell every GPU they could produce, but they didn't get the benefit of higher margins because all the price gouging was done by the distributors and re-sellers which NVidia lacks any legal power to prevent.

Nvidia certainly benefited from the volume of sales, and the corresponding (artificial) rise in stock price. They could have attempted techniques to limit mark up, but it would have effected volume and stock price, so they took a laissez faire attitude. When some low-production sports cars were being overly marked up at the dealership, Dodge started to cut those dealerships volume of stock. They gave them the choice to sell 1/month at high markup or 3/month at regular. Nvidia could have used a similar tactic, and sent more cards to the outlets with the cheapest prices. Regardless, it's the inflated MSRP of the RTX cards that has allowed retailers to keep prices on Pascal relatively high too. Those MSRPs for RTX staggered the whole market up, and that's all on Nvidia.

 

[kinggremlin]

Did you read the whole article? Channel partners haven't lowered prices as quickly as expected. This has nothing to do with Nvidia. A huge glut of product is not a goal for Nvidia. Resellers continue to price gouge their customers. This is how it works in all markets. When a shortage takes place, prices shoot up. However, when demand subsides, the prices don't fall nearly as fast as they shot up.

I agree and disagree Nvidia has a lot to do with the prices. They sell the chips to the board partners so the prices they sell to the board partners affect what the partners can sell them for. If you pay $300 for a GPU you can't build a card for it and sell it for less. Plus many times Nvidia has MSP (minimum selling price) levels set, so they are more involved than you think. They just got very greedy from the mining crazy. They were hoping the market had adjusted to the higher prices as the new norm.

Nvidia has no control over how much over MSRP re-sellers charge. They can't tell any company selling their products to lower prices. During the height of the mining craze, Nvidia could have given away their GPU's for free to AIB's, and there would have been no price drop. The market charges what the customer is willing to pay. Remember, Nvidia never raised the prices of the cards on their website during the few seconds they were in stock during the mining craze. They always sold for MSRP. Nvidia certainly benefited from being able to sell every GPU they could produce, but they didn't get the benefit of higher margins because all the price gouging was done by the distributors and re-sellers which NVidia lacks any legal power to prevent.

Nvidia certainly benefited from the volume of sales, and the corresponding (artificial) rise in stock price. They could have attempted techniques to limit mark up, but it would have effected volume and stock price, so they took a laissez faire attitude. When some low-production sports cars were being overly marked up at the dealership, Dodge started to cut those dealerships volume of stock. They gave them the choice to sell 1/month at high markup or 3/month at regular. Nvidia could have used a similar tactic, and sent more cards to the outlets with the cheapest prices. Regardless, it's the inflated MSRP of the RTX cards that has allowed retailers to keep prices on Pascal relatively high too. Those MSRPs for RTX staggered the whole market up, and that's all on Nvidia.

That tactic only works with very expensive ultra low volume products, with significantly more demand than planned availability, which video cards are not. Nvidia wants everyone who wants to spend $1200+ on a 2080ti to be able to buy one. It's not an exclusive and limited edition product, and certainly nothing below it in the product stack is either.

 

[s1mon7]

NVidia isn't selling 2080's at $800 to move 1060's. They did it to move 1080ti's. And it worked perfectly. Go look at the gamersnexus youtube video on this. They saw a huge surge in 1080ti sales through their referral program right when the rtx line was announced. Over 60% of all cards purchased were 1080ti's. That's ridiculous for such a highend card. There have been plenty of recent articles reporting on the dwindling stock of 1080ti's. Nvidia's RTX pricing scheme has absolutely achieved the goal of clearing highend Pascal stock.

They're trying to clear 1060 stock by not releasing a 2060 as the above article stated.

Exactly absolutely this. The RTX series are a rather small batch with the purpose of moving the old cards, launching the development for a new technology and making some extra cash in the high end (higher margin) to balance out the losses caused by having to sell a large inventory of mid-range cards at a loss. Turing is not a new Maxwell or Pascal like some people seem to think.

People don't really realize how many cards were used for mining and how many are available there now or coming to the second hand market and how it calls for unusual solutions. Nvidia or AMD absolutely can't sell mid-range cards for the price of those second-hand cards while still making a profit - they knew that since early 2018 when the mining bubble burst. They can only sell them at a loss, while gaining their profits from high-end cards in the meantime for as long as their supplies last. Without the large inventory of new old-gen cards they will only then be able to finally move forward, but there will still be many second-hand market cards then that could compete with any newer products.

To realistically compete with the second hand market then, they need a new series of cards capable of severely outperforming Pascal and Polaris, so the value for money on those is better (solely through the higher performance) than that of the used Pascal and Polaris cards that everyone would otherwise get. You can only accomplish that (while still making a profit) by introducing a new, significantly faster generation of cards. It's why I suspected Turing is a short-lived generation mostly exclusive to the high-end, with few mid-range units being made at best, since it does not accomplish that. I think a Turing successor will offer better value for money than second hand Pascal cards simply because it will have to, and it will have to be significantly faster than Turing for a lower or comparable price.

 

[Jim90]

So, if Nvidia's sole reason for deliberately raising prices of the new 20xx series to extortionate levels was make old stock more attractive and thus help clear it out, they must then surely be planning on reducing these prices back to 'acceptable levels for the majority', and I'd guess fairly soon...?

...or, do you think they'll take this opportunity to keep the bar raised?

 

[none12345]

Werent there stories of NVIDA forcing board partners to buy old pascal stock if they wanted access to new 2000 series stock last quarter?

This is likely why they said they plan to stop shipments of pascal this quarter. They apparently forced the stock on them last quarter that they couldnt sell. Likely so their last quarter financials didnt tank. But that only works once, the problem really started last quarter, but they seemed to have just hid it.

When their last quarter financials came out i thought for sure there would be signs of the crypto crash, and there werent any. Now it makes sense.

With that i think they are underestimating 1-2 quarters to recover. Its really likely to be 3-4, if you count last quarter where they hid it, and adding another because they seem to have a bigger problem then they are letting on.

Proably wont see new low and midrange cards($50-$400) till late Q2 or Q3 of 2019.

 

[bit_user]

The RTX series are a rather small batch with the purpose of moving the old cards, launching the development for a new technology and making some extra cash in the high end (higher margin) to balance out the losses caused by having to sell a large inventory of mid-range cards at a loss.

Except they're not selling anything at a loss.

When Pascal launched, you could get some really good deals on Maxwell cards. This time around, Pascal cards are barely dropping back to the launch prices.

Take another look at their financials. This is not a company that's losing money. They're just not raking it in quite as fast as during the crypto boom.

And if they were literally losing money on Pascal GPUs, do you really think they're selling enough Turing to compensate for that? It seems to me that the public perception of Turing is quite cool. The only place I see demand is for the RTX 2080 Ti, and that's probably just among folks who would've previously bought a Titan Xp.

 

[littleleo]

I've have the RTX 2070s & the 2080s and no one is asking for them. The only RTX model getting a look is the RTX 2080 TIs and the shortage is still bad on those.

 

[chickenballs]

greedy greedier Nvidia

 

[littleleo]

All people are naturally greedy unfortunately it is how we are. That is why when some one is generous with their resources (time, money, ear, shoulder...) they stand out so much. And are such a beacon to the rest of us how we should all behave.

You know like Trump and the rest of the Ruslicans, just fine caring people. ;^D

 

[chickenballs]

All people are naturally greedy unfortunately it is how we are. That is why when some one is generous with their resources (time, money, ear, shoulder...) they stand out so much. And are such a beacon to the rest of us how we should all behave.

You know like Trump and the rest of the Ruslicans, just fine caring people. ;^D

yeah people loved him so much simply because he is one of them
ignorant, greedy and angry. Well at least he gets to represent the people.

 

[littleleo]

All people are naturally greedy unfortunately it is how we are. That is why when some one is generous with their resources (time, money, ear, shoulder...) they stand out so much. And are such a beacon to the rest of us how we should all behave.

You know like Trump and the rest of the Ruslicans, just fine caring people. ;^D

yeah people loved him so much simply because he is one of them
ignorant, greedy and angry. Well at least he gets to represent the people.

They do every time he comes to town thousands go out to welcome him. And they are always leaving presents on his star in Hollywood.

 

[bit_user]

You know like Trump ...

Please, for the civility of the forums, don't needlessly inject politics. If the thread topic is already political, that's one thing, but even if you're trying to be cute (like here, I take it), it has the downside of creating friction and possibly igniting a flame with virtually no upside.

With that said, I think you make many good points and are often an asset to the forums.

Peace. And have a happy Thanksgiving, everyone.