Discussion NVIDIA might delay its RTX 40 series "ADA Lovelace" GPU launch due to oversupply of RTX 30 series !

[Metal Messiah.]

Hi,

Some market analysis and rumors. It appears that NVIDIA's GeForce RTX 4000 graphics cards may not be widely available until December 2022, as retailers currently struggle to move current gen GPUs in the wake of a flooded used market. But given it's just a few months delay, it 's not a very big issue for most PC gamers, assuming they want to upgrade.

This was actually expected to happen. I'm more concerned about the pricing and availability, rather than any delay, when these RTX 40-series chips hit retail.

But the Nvidia RTX 4000 GPU release date could indeed be pushed back further due to the oversupply of RTX 3000 graphics cards currently flooding the used market, in addition to those yet to be shifted by board partners and retailers. The company has already attempted to scale back the production of its upcoming GPU chips, but it seems that the launch of team green’s best graphics cards could prove to be a messy affair for everyone involved.

Sources close to YouTuber Moore’s Law Is Dead say that the bulk of supply for RTX 4000 GPUs was “supposed to hit in October, but now it may actually be postponed to December.” This doesn’t mean that Nvidia won’t announce and launch cards like the RTX 4090 before then, but you may have trouble getting your hands on one until that time.

For now, retailers’ more immediate concerns appear to be the stockpiles of RTX 3000 cards that they are growing “desperate to move”, as worries mount that they won’t be able to sell the graphics cards for a profit. The sheer amount of current generation GeForce GPUs entering the second-hand market following the recent cryptocurrency crash are placing pressure on prices to tumble downward, which is naturally having a knock-on effect on the demand retailers are seeing.

Just how long Nvidia can delay RTX 4000 is unclear, as the company understandably doesn’t want to give AMD RDNA 3 graphics cards a head start if it can be helped. In the interim, the coming months may be the best time to grab a gaming PC upgrade on the cheap, as falling prices are showing no signs of slowing down.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHZbgaAoFHI&ab_channel=Moore%27sLawIsDead

 

[Cyberat_88]

No thanks, I'll stick to AMD, better hardware for less money.

 

[ohio_buckeye]

Good for nvidia. It sounds like their next green cards are going to be power hungry anyway. My 6700 xt will be fine for a while.

 

[Tac 25]

falling prices = good.
maybe when I go back to the store in the mall, 3050 price would have fallen some more.

can still hold on for awhile. KOF XV, newest game in the house, still plays well with my 1050ti.

 

[Phaaze88]

Oh gee, whose bloody fault was this? Everyone knew the gravy train wasn't going to last indefinitely, right? ...right?
History has this habit of repeating itself - I sure as hell knew it wasn't going to last. I just didn't know when.

No sympathy from me - there's none from their end towards us.

~Trololololol...

 

[Third-Eye]

To be fair... Nvidia isn't fully to blame for this. At minimum 50% of the blame for this is on the AIBs, because they were charging far too much for already over priced products and retailers were stuck stocking overpriced expensive cards, but charging even more for bundles to get their own slice of the pie.

The biggest issue was AIBs selling directly to mining farms and scalpers by the pallet. Let them complain about declining profits on overpriced cards people can't afford during a recession...

 

[Phaaze88]

Some of this is also the fault of the people buying them.
Paid 2000 bucks for a 3080Ti about half a month ago, you say? Now the same card is available for 45% less?
It's performance is still very relevant too... whoo, I could've done a lot with that 900 bucks, and all it took was a little waiting...
Still a little too much for me, but oh well.

 

[RodroX]

If RTX 4xxx series will consume as much power as rumors said, then as far as my RTX 2070 is working I will skip them.

In fact with every nvidia launch since 3xxx series I am considering more and more on going AMD for the first time in my PC building gamer life.

And yeah, this is in part nvidias fault for thinking all gamers will pay whatever nonsense they were asking for the GPUs. We are not miners, we just like playing games.

And to add to all of that crap we had to take from nvidia (and from AMD to) over the last two years they laugh at our face once again launching the non-sense GTX 1630, for $200 or more, WTH are they thinking? That piece of crap should not cost more than 55 to 65.

Now AMD RX 6400 doesn't look that bad at around $160, having +50% more performance depending on the game, resolution and settings selected. Not to mention with a PCIe 4.0 mobo it will do even better.

Way to go nvidia, you just helped AMD who previously had the worst card of 2022 (RX 6400) to look almost like a water tank in the desert, a flower in the sand, a diammond in the ... you get the idea.

 

[ohio_buckeye]

As someone who does lean a bit towards AMD a bit, don’t think if AMD had the chance to make the money that nvidia did that they would have hesitated out of the goodness of their hearts. AMD is still a business. They are a little behind on ray tracing and probably know it. That said their 6000 series cards aren’t bad. I’m happy with my 6700xt, seems like their drivers have improved. I think they’ve got a ways to go but they seem to be getting there. Even with the new cards like the 6750xt for example they seem to be trying like nvidia to squeeze every last drop of performance out of their cards. I think these companies need to focus a little on efficiency though. You shouldn’t need a 1200 watt power supply for a single card for example. I think I saw something about some cards needing 600 watt connectors which is getting to be too much.

 

[RodroX]

As someone who does lean a bit towards AMD a bit, don’t think if AMD had the chance to make the money that nvidia did that they would have hesitated out of the goodness of their hearts. AMD is still a business. They are a little behind on ray tracing and probably know it. That said their 6000 series cards aren’t bad. I’m happy with my 6700xt, seems like their drivers have improved. I think they’ve got a ways to go but they seem to be getting there. Even with the new cards like the 6750xt for example they seem to be trying like nvidia to squeeze every last drop of performance out of their cards. I think these companies need to focus a little on efficiency though. You shouldn’t need a 1200 watt power supply for a single card for example. I think I saw something about some cards needing 600 watt connectors which is getting to be too much.

Of course AMD didn't have a chance to make the money nvidia did, but they did raise the price of thier gpu too. Which is not a surprise considering how the market was working at that time.
And I do agree 100% with you than efficiency should be once again in the focus, we all want more FPs and better looks, but not at "double" the wattage.

 

[ötzi]

Of course AMD didn't have a chance to make the money nvidia did, but they did raise the price of thier gpu too. Which is not a surprise considering how the market was working at that time.

The third party cards for sure but AMD not so much, bought a RX6800 and a RX6800XT through them directly for 1260 EUR (about 1480 Dollars in Aug. 2021) for the two. When third party cards were selling at these prices (and a lot higher) for only one card...

 

[RodroX]

The third party cards for sure but AMD not so much, bought a RX6800 and a RX6800XT through them directly for 1260 EUR (about 1480 Dollars in Aug. 2021) for the two. When third party cards were selling at these prices (and a lot higher) for only one card...

If AMD raised the GPU price, the partners had to pay more for each chip, and thus raising the price indirectly. Of course AMD cards were sorta of an exception, if you were able to get cards from them directly. But this is (and was) not the whole wide world situation.

Sadly there are countries full of gamers were this situation you mention is imposible to happend. I live in one of them, and there are many others, many.

 

[ötzi]

I think the resellers might have got one of the largest pieces of the profit pie, orders at Nvidia and AMD were made by third party card makers long before Covid. I was very lucky at the time to obtain these, here, in the Netherlands a lot of my friends are still searching for a GPU at a normal-ish price, availability and pricing is way better than a year ago, but still ridiculously overpriced for a two year old generation if you ask me :-(
And the near future with the new generations coming up doesn't get much brighter I'm afraid...

 

[RodroX]

Everyone got more money than usual, thats for sure. And yes resellers always get more money peer card, than makers like AMD or partners.

 

[Third-Eye]

Of course AMD didn't have a chance to make the money nvidia did, but they did raise the price of thier gpu too. Which is not a surprise considering how the market was working at that time.

AMD and Nvidia didn't raise the prices of their cards. The 30 series FE and the AMD branded reference models sold directly from their store are all still release MSRP.

It was the AIB partners that were raising prices to ridiculous highs. Some cards being 2x or higher the original MSRP of some SKUs. I feel like people need to understand or keep that in mind when talking about GPU prices.

If anything, AMD and nvidia lost money selling the FE and reference cards for MSRP throughout the shortage.

 

[RodroX]

AMD and Nvidia didn't raise the prices of their cards. The 30 series FE and the AMD branded reference models sold directly from their store are all still release MSRP.

It was the AIB partners that were raising prices to ridiculous highs. Some cards being 2x or higher the original MSRP of some SKUs. I feel like people need to understand or keep that in mind when talking about GPU prices.

If anything, AMD and nvidia lost money selling the FE and reference cards for MSRP throughout the shortage.

If they sold thier card for MSRP on thier webssite, they didn't lost money either, they just didn't won as much as the partners did when prices skyrocket.

You really think AMD and nvidia sold thier chips to partners at the original price, when partners price was near or over 2x the MSRP during the cripto boom?, Really think AMD and Nvidia lost money?

 

[Third-Eye]

If they sold thier card for MSRP on thier webssite, they didn't lost money either, they just didn't won as much as the partners did when prices skyrocket.

You really think AMD and nvidia sold thier chips to partners at the original price, when partners price was near or over 2x the MSRP during the cripto boom?, Really think AMD and Nvidia lost money?

I was saying specifically Founders Edition cards that nvidia has contracted to sell through Best Buy exclusively in the US and AMD reference cards sold directly from AMD. At least the FE cards were being sold for less than it cost for the entire production chain. I imagine AMD was close to their reference cards being sold at cost.

Without having the numbers to look at, I can't say how much of the price increase was justified to cover the cost of labor, materials, manufacturing and shipping. The GPU dies themselves likely would have gone up in price to the AIB manufacturers, but the manufacturers are the ones to blame for the massive increase in price on the cards and then the scalpers made it even worse. They definitely decided to increase the price for a larger chunk of the profits once they realized people were willing to heavily overpay.

It's very possible that I'm wrong on who is controlling the prices and it's all nvidia dictating the prices on AIB cards.

 

[RodroX]

I was saying specifically Founders Edition cards that nvidia has contracted to sell through Best Buy exclusively in the US and AMD reference cards sold directly from AMD. At least the FE cards were being sold for less than it cost for the entire production chain. I imagine AMD was close to their reference cards being sold at cost.

Without having the numbers to look at, I can't say how much of the price increase was justified to cover the cost of labor, materials, manufacturing and shipping. The GPU dies themselves likely would have gone up in price to the AIB manufacturers, but the manufacturers are the ones to blame for the massive increase in price on the cards and then the scalpers made it even worse. They definitely decided to increase the price for a larger chunk of the profits once they realized people were willing to heavily overpay.

It's very possible that I'm wrong on who is controlling the prices and it's all nvidia dictating the prices on AIB cards.

AIB saw a boom in cripto, and they new they could sell at almost any price they asked for, and many of them probably did business from outside the "regular" market. But I would bet that as soon as nvidia realized partners were making "double" the profit they start selling the chips to the AIB with an increased price (at least compared to the first batch before the launch day).

And I do not have numbers either, but I would think AMD probably did the same thing as soon as they realized partners were been greedy.

As I said, I really doubt nvida and AMD had lost money during the cripto madness.

Lets see it from another perspectice of sorts, say nvidia and AMD didn't increased the price of the chips during the cripto insanity, I would also bet partners were willing to pay more money for the chips to make well more money. So I believe one way or the other neither lost money, and they all probably did more profit than they thought

 

[Tac 25]

while installing the latest driver today, saw an announcement that came with it. --- back in stock.



I guess there are plenty of 30 series right now.

 

[Phaaze88]

AIB saw a boom in cripto, and they new they could sell at almost any price they asked for, and many of them probably did business from outside the "regular" market. But I would bet that as soon as nvidia realized partners were making "double" the profit they start selling the chips to the AIB with an increased price (at least compared to the first batch before the launch day).

And I do not have numbers either, but I would think AMD probably did the same thing as soon as they realized partners were been greedy.

As I said, I really doubt nvida and AMD had lost money during the cripto madness.

Both AMD and Nvidia saw what was going on and wanted a piece of that pie, but the prices of released gpu wafers were already set by contract; those couldn't be changed... and that's where these came in:
RX 6650XT
RX 6750XT
RX 6950XT

RTX 3070Ti
RTX 3080 12GB
RTX 3080Ti
RTX 3090Ti
Those wafers were being sold for more.

 

[Metal Messiah.]

If RTX 4xxx series will consume as much power as rumors said, then as far as my RTX 2070 is working I will skip them.

Yes. Based on all previous leaks and rumors, the RTX 40 series are going to be a power hog for sure. At least most of the high-end flagship SKUs. So far, we know that the NVIDIA GeForce RTX 40 series graphics cards will adopt the new ATX 3.0 compliant 12PVHPWR 16-pin connector which allows for up to 600W of power draw through a new PCIe Gen 5 power connector interface.

So the power consumption of the RTX 4080 and RTX 4090/Ti will reportedly go as high as 450-500W minimum, with some AIB variants going even further. According to a report from Igor, this will be facilitated by the new 12VHPWR power connector, like mentioned above.

This power connector has already been featured on the GeForce RTX 3090 Ti graphics card and currently allows for up to 450W of power draw through a triple 8-pin adapter. But there's another aspect to allow the full PCIe Gen 5.0 compliance and that's the interface connector itself.

Based on a tweet/rumour from Kopite7kimi, a reliable source of Nvidia leaks (though add some salt), the upcoming GeForce RTX 40 lineup will retain the PCIe Gen 4.0 protocol which would be a bold move by NVIDIA for not hopping on the next-gen standard, if true, even though they are doing so in the HPC segment, where their Hopper GPU will be amongst the first to utilize the new protocol.

It makes sense that the HPC lineup features it because servers require a lot of bandwidth and the Gen 5.0 protocol will help those environments. As for consumers, the PCIe Gen 5.0 interface is just too much bandwidth and current GPUs are yet to fully stature the PCIe Gen 4.0 interface. But, we need to wait and see.

It’s still unclear whether AMD will also make the jump with its RDNA 3 (Radeon RX 7800 XT/7900 XT) graphics cards as well, considering that they’ll adopt an MCM design ?? Both vendors may retain the older connectors at least on lower-end cards, to avoid unnecessary PSU upgrades for budget users.

 

[alceryes]

As for consumers, the PCIe Gen 5.0 interface is just too much bandwidth and current GPUs are yet to fully stature the PCIe Gen 4.0 interface. But, we need to wait and see.

Currently, AAA games at max graphics settings allowed and 4k resolution aren't even saturating the PCIe 3.0 x16 bandwidth, much less the 4.0.
It won't hurt NVIDIA one bit to stay on PCIe 4.0 for the next gen cards.

 

[RodroX]

Yes. Based on all previous leaks and rumors, the RTX 40 series are going to be a power hog for sure. At least most of the high-end flagship SKUs. So far, we know that the NVIDIA GeForce RTX 40 series graphics cards will adopt the new ATX 3.0 compliant 12PVHPWR 16-pin connector which allows for up to 600W of power draw through a new PCIe Gen 5 power connector interface.

So the power consumption of the RTX 4080 and RTX 4090/Ti will reportedly go as high as 450-500W minimum, with some AIB variants going even further. According to a report from Igor, this will be facilitated by the new 12VHPWR power connector, like mentioned above.

This power connector has already been featured on the GeForce RTX 3090 Ti graphics card and currently allows for up to 450W of power draw through a triple 8-pin adapter. But there's another aspect to allow the full PCIe Gen 5.0 compliance and that's the interface connector itself.

Based on a tweet/rumour from Kopite7kimi, a reliable source of Nvidia leaks (though add some salt), the upcoming GeForce RTX 40 lineup will retain the PCIe Gen 4.0 protocol which would be a bold move by NVIDIA for not hopping on the next-gen standard, if true, even though they are doing so in the HPC segment, where their Hopper GPU will be amongst the first to utilize the new protocol.

It makes sense that the HPC lineup features it because servers require a lot of bandwidth and the Gen 5.0 protocol will help those environments. As for consumers, the PCIe Gen 5.0 interface is just too much bandwidth and current GPUs are yet to fully stature the PCIe Gen 4.0 interface. But, we need to wait and see.

It’s still unclear whether AMD will also make the jump with its RDNA 3 (Radeon RX 7800 XT/7900 XT) graphics cards as well, considering that they’ll adopt an MCM design ?? Both vendors may retain the older connectors at least on lower-end cards, to avoid unnecessary PSU upgrades for budget users.

I do not think PCIe 5.0 is even necesary for now, maybe in the next, next gen.

We will see what the performance/power consumption equation lands. If they can give me 2X the performance of my RTX 2070 at 1440p for let say around 50 watts more, then that may be a very good deal. Right now the RTX 3080 is around 2 times the performance of my card, but at two times the power requirement and with the transient issue.

 

[Cyberat_88]

My next PC years from now will have 1000W or 1200W PSU, I will not shop by power consumption rating or quiet.
AMD/AMD Jets On !!!

 

[Metal Messiah.]

I wouldn't be surprised when and if 1K Watts PSUs becomes the mainstream requirement/norm for most GPUs in near future, lol.

On related news, Chinese gamers might be in for a treat. 🤘 It appears that the ENTIRE range of AMD & NVIDIA Graphics Cards is currently available below MSRP in China. RTX 3090 Ti prices fall by up to 38%, and the 6900 XT GPU shows a 37.5% decline in MSRP. Shocking ? But these are actually brand NEW cards, not used in Mining or for some other work.

The GeForce RTX 3080 Ti and the RTX 3090 have also seen a fairly mammoth price drop of -29% and -33%, respectively.

According to reports coming in from China, the entire latest inventory of GPUs from NVIDIA and AMD has just arrived in stores and the prices are way below their MSRPs as they should be by now. All new graphics cards from NVIDIA and AMD are now being sold way below MSRP. The only cards that are in the single-digit range below MSRP are the AMD Radeon RX 6950 XT at -6.4% and the NVIDIA GeForce RTX 3060 Ti at -4.1%.

Despite that, these graphics cards can now be bought for prices that are lower than the MSRPs in brand new condition.

Translated Table.

GRAPHICS CARD	CURRENT PRICE (RETAILER)	MSRP	DIFFERENCE VS MSRP
NVIDIA GeForce RTX 3090 Ti	9499 RMB ($1415 US)	14999 RMB ($2234 US)	-38%
NVIDIA GeForce RTX 3090	8498 RMB ($1266 US)	11999 RMB ($1787 US)	-29%
NVIDIA GeForce RTX 3080 Ti	5998 RMB ($893 US)	8999 RMB ($1340 US)	-33%
NVIDIA GeForce RTX 3080 12 GB	4695 RMB ($699 US)	N/A	N/A
NVIDIA GeForce RTX 3080 10 GB	4598 RMB ($685 US)	5499 RMB ($819 US)	-16%
NVIDIA GeForce RTX 3070 Ti	3842 RMB ($572 US)	4499 RMB ($670 US)	-15%
NVIDIA GeForce RTX 3070	3396 RMB ($506 US)	3899 RMB ($580 US)	-13%
NVIDIA GeForce RTX 3060 Ti	2875 RMB ($428 US)	2999 RMB ($446 US)	-4.1%
NVIDIA GeForce RTX 3060	2189 RMB ($326 US)	2499 RMB ($372 US)	-12.4%
NVIDIA GeForce RTX 3050	1700 RMB ($253 US)	1899 RMB ($282 US)	-10.4%
AMD Radeon RX 6950 XT	7859 RMB ($1171 US)	8399 RMB ($1251 US)	-6.4%
AMD Radeon RX 6900 XT	4999 RMB ($744 US)	7999 RMB ($1191 US)	-37.5%
AMD Radeon RX 6800 XT	4293 RMB ($639 US)	5099 RMB ($759 US)	-15.8%
AMD Radeon RX 6800	3988 RMB ($594 US)	4599 RMB ($685 US)	-13.2%
AMD Radeon RX 6750 XT	3399 RMB ($506 US)	4199 RMB ($625 US)	-19%
AMD Radeon RX 6700 XT	3049 RMB ($454 US)	3699 RMB ($551 US)	-17.5%
AMD Radeon RX 6650 XT	2490 RMB ($371 US)	3099 RMB ($461 US)	-19.6%
AMD Radeon RX 600 XT	2218 RMB ($330 US)	2999 RMB ($446 US)	-26%
AMD Radeon RX 6600	1799 RMB ($268 US)	2499 RMB ($372 US)	-28%
AMD Radeon RX 6500 XT	1174 RMB ($174 US)	1499 RMB ($223 US)	-21.6%
AMD Radeon RX 6400	894 RMB ($133 US)	1299 RMB ($193 US)	-31.1%