Nvidia Tegra Sales Soar, But The Chip's Future In The Mobile Market Is Uncertain

Status
Not open for further replies.

Reepca

Honorable
Dec 5, 2012
156
0
10,680
0
"Nvidia believes its visual computing expertise is critical for self-driving cars, because the cars will need to "see" the environment around them and make sense of it in order to drive safely through it."

Speaking of visual computing... why hasn't NVIDIA joined the HSAFoundation yet? Open standards lead to wider adoption, and from what I can see Tegra could really benefit from HSA features.

Normally I could see them using proprietary tech (like GSync or CUDA), but in those cases they beat the open standard to the punch - whereas now, they're behind.
 

tomfreak

Distinguished
May 18, 2011
1,334
0
19,280
0
they need to get even more aggressive on pricing and may be the power usage. U need a huge advantages in everything so people would switch over.
 

ZolaIII

Distinguished
Sep 26, 2013
178
0
18,690
1
Go with same X1 architecture to Samsung's 14nm finFET adjust the GPU clock & make reference smartphone (for sells as shield) with mid range price & you have it. Stupid pushing race with Apple & making SoCs with power consumption suitable only for larger tables won't do you any good. Recipe is simple enough! If you want seriously to go into mobile business consider buying Songs struggling mobile division (to fave world wide distribution wide & loved brand by both costumers & developer's) & that's it. Their are also other less expensive options but are not certain win wins. Option B start licensing GPU cores IP's. You have the only really good performing full GPU architecture with ironed out driver's on Linux (Android) but still you don't use this advantage.
 

bit_user

Splendid
Ambassador
I wonder to what extent the auto wins are about machine vision vs. in-car navigation, entertainment, and digital instrument cluster.

If I were an auto maker, I would insist on standard APIs. I would flat-out refuse to use any vendor who required me to use a proprietary API. I believe avoiding vendor lock-in is the reason Apple pushed OpenCL, in the first place. I'm sure it was also a driving force behind HSA and other open standards.
 

somebodyspecial

Honorable
Sep 20, 2012
1,459
0
11,310
20


Apple's ipad sales are down 18%, and nexus 9 was not well received and had some problems. I don't think they are running off the shelves. Tablet sales are just down (due to phablets probably). So if you make a bad product, charge extra over last models, and you're in a down market, I'd expect it sold poorly. Shield is likely picking up as they add games, have been adding many software features etc and it was really AUTO that exploded as you can see from the Q report etc. They credited SHIELD (two devices, handheld and tablet) and AUTO. The bulk being AUTO. Unlike nexus 9 (which again had problems, find a "I loved it" review - good luck), Shield tablet and handheld (hope they X1 the handheld too!) are AIMED at gamers and with more and more ports are gaining steam I'd guess (now works with chromecasting too). The original nexus devices had great hardware, a great price and performance. I can't find the same reasons to buy a nexus 9. I don't think lollipop on it was that good either (that part may improve surely, I mean it's rev1 of 64bit so no surprise), but the whole thing (device too) seemed 2 months too early and needed polishing in many areas. No review I read made me WANT IT. Instead my thoughts were more like, I'll wait until they get it all fixed and patched up (hardware and OS). By that time, you're waiting for the next big release from someone else I think.

NV is likely telling the truth, the bulk is auto, some more from shield stuff and probably only a few million nexus 9's. Unfortunately google doesn't release sales figures for it, but NV should know.

When a Android leading website categorically says NO to nexus 9 for xmas wish list that says something right? They recommended Ipad Air 2...LOL:
http://www.androidpolice.com/2014/12/07/android-police-holiday-gift-guide-2014-stuff-want-newer/
"Yes, I am breaking the gift guide by putting this here. Why? Because as you'll notice, none of us recommended the Nexus 9"

They've struck that part now as one did recommend it, but they tell you to ignore that guy...LOL. Their review said it sucked basically too. I can't say exactly what is to blame. Is it aspect ratio (apps don't all scale properly etc), lollipop, hardware issues, Denver kinks etc...who knows. It just had a lot against it no matter how you slice it and a price hike too.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2915726-nvidia-seeing-just-the-tip-of-the-iceberg-in-infotainment-solutions
7.5mil cars used tegra and they don't all use ONE either and it's a solution with software so revenue from here is larger than a mobile device. Just a point of ref.
 

bit_user

Splendid
Ambassador
I'm having trouble parsing this sentence. Are you saying some cars use multiple tegra chips?

And is anyone actually using tegra for image processing (e.g. lane-keeping, pedestrian detection, etc.)? Or is it all just in-car entertainment, dash board, and Nav?
 

somebodyspecial

Honorable
Sep 20, 2012
1,459
0
11,310
20


Yes. Up to 4 AFAIK now, but they just intro'd their driverless type stuff and that won't land for a few years or more probably. They said at some point they could use 16-20 socs.

http://www.computerworld.com/article/2864593/nvidias-tegra-x1-aims-to-make-driverless-cars-more-reliable.html

"Nvidia's Tegra X1 will be used in the Drive CX car platform, which Huang called the "world's most advanced cockpit" for vehicles. It has two Tegra X1 chips"

Just an example of the new system. How many do you think it takes to do driverless stuff? I guess 16-20...LOL. Today they just apply brakes etc. The CX is just for dash crap.

"Nvidia is using two Tegra X1 chips in its new Drive PX hardware platform for the development of intelligent cars."
This will have to be massively amped up to do more than park your car probably. There are more in depth articles all over the place, just a quick google on above.

http://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/2015/01/04/ces-tegra-x1-nvidia-drive-auto/
It was discussed in most CES reports.
"“Your future cars will be the most advanced computers in the world,” Jen-Hsun told a crowd of more than 350 reporters, analysts and partners packed into a ballroom at The Strip’s Four Season’s Hotel. “There will be more computing horsepower inside a car than anything you own today.”

You're going to need more than 4 x1's to beat a top end PC of today correct? ;) NV is trying to (at some point) take out stuff like google's $150K radar like system for much less. That price is NOT the car, just the system and it's taken years and only has a few routes google's cars can drive on (vegas trip, and some crap in California etc, very limited and it can't ID much yet). I'm guessing NV will leapfrog them quite easily as their tech (as patrick moorhead states) is geared to do this already (image recognition, via 12cams etc). They already have a good start working with Visual Computing companies to ID objects.

http://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2015/01/nvidia-announces-tegra-x1-soc-with-maxwell-based-gpu/
For people that think Denver is dead. They clearly state in the update that is NOT true, and it's on future chips.

From above, you can see it's already going to be pretty capable, but we're talking driver assistance here, not DRIVERLESS (years away probably).
"Used in conjunction with up to 12 separate HD cameras, a car with the Drive PX can build an "environment model" that it can use to "see" and "understand" its surroundings—it can supposedly detect other vehicles, pedestrians and cyclists, road signs, and other information. Using something Nvidia calls "deep learning," the system can be trained to detect partially obscured pedestrians, whether school buses or ambulances are flashing their lights, and other context-sensitive things that a real driver might see and respond to."

"All of this data is then used to help the car automatically perform pathfinding and help drivers avoid collisions."

Note however, google is having trouble with this stuff. Green/red light was tough for them until recently...LOL
http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/181508-googles-self-driving-car-passes-700000-accident-free-miles-can-now-avoid-cyclists-stop-for-trains
Just added new abilities last year for SOME signs, railroad crossings etc. As it says not NEARLY ready.
"Basically, every single driving situation that can possibly occur must be painstakingly programmed into the software. It isn’t like Google has built an artificial intelligence that can learn how to drive a car from basic principles — if Google doesn’t tell the car what to do, it doesn’t do anything."

Nvidia's way says it learns every mile it drives. Seems like a faster way if true.

An example of one users google experience:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/motoring/11382073/Roadtesting-Googles-new-driverless-car.html

" Just minutes later, the car proves that hunch right. A vehicle in front turning right on a red light - a manoeuvre allowed in California - fails to spot a jogger crossing the street and comes very close to hitting her.

We are all too busy watching the drama unfold to realise we are heading straight for our own jaywalking jogger up ahead. Luckily for us humans, our driver was not distracted and stopped in the nick of time. "

We'll see how fast a true visual computing company like NV can get this done soon enough I guess. The CES vids were pretty impressive though already.

Regarding numbers in revenue etc note the car solutions with K1 were $50-60 assumed due to software etc.
If you're selling 7.5mil cars x4 socs for example that's 30mil chips at $50-60 you're already at 180mil and who knows if there are more charges and not sure if that's NV's cost or what is charged (never got that info really clear, it was just some stock analysis post at seeking alpha or motley fool etc). Tegra revenue for the year was ~570mil IIRC. I'd sure like to know how many shields they sold though (tablet/handheld both).

Hopefully it makes more sense now :) Two devices, each using two chips for the tasks you mentioned, but again valet crap etc, is not driving out on the streets alone yet ;) This is just the beginning, but I like the future no matter who wins. I'd like to get a chauffeur soon (the car itself that is, nobody in the driver seat at all) so I could have a drink in the back seat all day if desired...ROFL. That will require much more power though IMHO.

http://mashable.com/2015/01/05/las-vegas-self-driving-audi/
Then again, K1 already drives some ;) Just like google though, not many places (vegas just like google I guess). Note the 550mil SF to vegas trip used the expensive system.
"Audi notes that the system will work from 0 to 70 mph, but when the car approaches an urban area it will alert the driver to take over manual control."

"During a ride in Audi's self-driving car along a freeway in Las Vegas at last year's CES, the system failed and the driver had to take over."
Not so good a year ago.

http://jalopnik.com/autonomous-audi-a7-drives-from-sf-to-vegas-probably-no-1677737814?utm_content=bufferd11aa&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
Guess it made it this year. Clearly still massive limits on these. But google wants theirs on the road in 2020 everywhere. Hmmm...Funny they say it made it, but a driver still had to take over in urban areas from SF to Vegas. I don't really call that success yet if a human was needed a bunch of times still.

http://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/2015/01/06/audi-tegra-x1/
Audi using X1 in A8 I guess. Audi guy showing off here a few days later that first nv blog link.
"“With every mile it drives, every hour, the car will learn more and more,” said Ricky Hudi, the carmaker’s executive vice president for electrics/electronics development."

That deep learning system seems better than google's "program every situation" deal. Hype or real, we'll know more soon I guess. Thanks for making me dig deeper... :)
 

bit_user

Splendid
Ambassador
Thanks for the writeup.

I'm not sure about deep learning. Such systems perform well on data similar to what they're trained with, but exactly how well they can adapt to different situations is unpredictable.

Some of the systems you mentioned suggest they're doing online training, which can be tricky but at least has the potential to adapt to the specific situations and environments a given driver frequently experiences.

All of these systems are susceptible to hacks. And not just electronic attacks, but also through fooling their vision systems. Because of this, I predict their sensor arrays will continue to be a significant cost item for quite a while.
 

Niva

Distinguished
Jul 20, 2006
382
0
18,780
0
Sure, credit your Tegra ales to your own SHIELD... I am SURE the Nexus 9 carrying a Tegra chip have nothing to do with the chips selling well
The Nexus 9 has not turned into a raging sales success for a variety of reasons. The Shield tablet on the other hand is a huge hit considering nobody I've met in the real world even knows about it. My prediction is that the X1 and subsequent chips will have even better success.
 

somebodyspecial

Honorable
Sep 20, 2012
1,459
0
11,310
20


You're welcome. After reading more (partly because of you), I have major reservations about some stuff too. I believe the NV system is communicating with servers for info (like car wreck ahead, construction etc), and they mentioned somewhere the cars would communicate to each other on the road. Like Car A coming towards car B, and they both tell each other something like "hey, I'm swerving right to avoid that wreck in between us, so you swerve to your right so we don't collide" or some such thing :) Semi-OK with that, but the connection to server crap means you know everywhere I went today etc. Even a legal person (acting legally I mean) can be targeted for say, going to a bookstore that sells religious crap, and now the IRS type targeting can be used on you just like they did already with info on businesses/groups supporting tea party. Whoever is in power doesn't like X about some people so all this new info (on top of everything they already know) gives them even more to screw with you (common core tracks 300 statistics on kids AND their families etc). Imagine how bad it could get if govt goes further off the rails. I'm not trying to start a conspiracy talk here with people...LOL. Just saying, even legally doing things I don't want to be tracked even to walmart...ROFL. Or tracked IN walmart with what I buy (stores now do this, hmm...he spent 15minutes in front of shoes, show him shoe sales spammed to his phone).

How about a situation where the car can't communicate to servers etc for something and it just pulls off like the one car did in one of the stories? The driver didn't take over in time so it just pulled over and parked on the side of the road. I'm drunk in the back seat having a great time and it decides "urban traffic ahead, driver take over" or something and now I'm wasted. OK, so what now, I just sit here for hours until sober? ROFL. What if it does that in a "BAD" neighborhood. Now I'm nervous and want the heck out of there...LOL.

I agree, probably a ways off before it's truly great without issues (your noted security stuff etc has to be worked out). Great that it's coming though, for at least stuff like being tired and maybe having it take over to get you home before you're passing out. I've had that happen once and scare the crap out of me hitting those bumps. Woke up to a holy crap moment. You come out of that in full panic mode pretty much realizing you were MOVING and just trying not to jerk the wheel as your eyes take in the "new world" you see now...LOL. :) All I remember was not hearing for a second then bump bump bump, oh crap...ROFL Talk about an adrenaline rush for about 5-10 minutes. Jeez. A lot of long-haul truck drivers etc have problems with that, so a system that just pulls over when the driver is assumed unconscious would be good for that. It is already able to drive on highways and change lanes to avoid slow traffic etc, so again great for long haul or trips. I think I'd still want to be able to shut it completely down once in urban areas so at that point you don't know my destinations etc (call me paranoid...LOL, I accept it). So good for some stuff & at some point maybe really bad at times knowing the govt always gets involved and in the way somehow. :(
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

ASK THE COMMUNITY

TRENDING THREADS