Well Russia can't afford a war with Ukraine yet they still invaded. China is the same problem, mass quantities of overrated military trash but they have stupidity on their side do we will see. You can't overestimate the intelligence of politicians, they really are that dumb. I'll say again what I've been saying for a while now, wait for September when the used cards flood the market.
Russia-Ukraine -> Land invasion
China-Taiwan -> Amphibious invasion
China's Task in contrast to Russia is monumentally more difficult.
We are talking elementary school vs university.
This is not something where you throw a few boats into the mix.
Not that it's impossible but good luck to anyone trying something like that, it'll be the new dictionary definition of slaughterhouse.
And that is without US intervention which is certain given taiwan's chip stance in the world.
What's the point of halting China's Chip industdy if they can just take over TSMC without consequences.
The U.S has a great interest in keeping Taiwan an independent country.
Additionally, China saw how defiant the West was in sanctioning Russia despite all doubts.
China is not the big dragon everyone thinks they are, not that they are weak absolutely not but their propaganda is
very strong. Keeping a billion people alive with a list of one crisis after another is reality.
During war, heatwaves and sanctions? Good luck, the people are already angry at the CCP for the covid lockdowns.