Nvidia Underestimated Crypto Dependence - Analyst

[Guest]

RBC analyst Mitch Steves warned investors that Nvidia severely underestimated revenues from crypto-related sales between April 2017 and July 2018.

Nvidia Underestimated Crypto Dependence - Analyst : Read more

 

[bigpinkdragon286]

If as the article says Mitch Steves alleges, cryptocurrency numbers can't be confirmed, good luck with pinning NVIDIA down to anything more than an expert's opinion.

Personally, I suspect NVIDIA just lied to calm investors, planning for another of their, my bad, moments later on.

 

[redgarl]

The guy is from RBC. It is a well respected financial institution in Canada. He is not a loco mojo like many try to depict him as.

And honestly, he's right... Nvidia is having a 500M$ hole in their budget.

 

[freedomnow]

The problem with the analysis is that Nvidia captured 75%. This does not look true based on what I know about mining and AMD. From my experience AMD cards were actually better at mining then Nvidia. This is why AMD cards were selling well above MSRP at a much greater percentage then Nvidia cards. Plus now those same cards are being sold for lower then MSRP. The GTX1060 is still being sold above MSRP. If this were true I would expect the GTX1060 to be priced to the floor as the supply should be large and the demand low.

 

[zippz]

Freedomnow, the answer to that is AMD was conservative and didn't produce as many cards because they didn't know when the cryptomaket.would collapse
AMD was still having cashflow problems so couldn't afford to take a big sudden flop. Their cards were overpriced because of big demand and low supply due to it being better at crypto.

 

[photonboy]

Zippz,
Probably correct... the main issue with all of this is that you need to ORDER the GPU's (processors not cards) from the fab which is a massive commitment and very risky when you are unsure when the crypto bubble would fail... NVidia dragged its feet, ordered even more GPU's and then the bubble burst leaving them (and/or their buyers) temporarily stuck with processors they might not be able to sell in the end...

And yes, AMD had stock issues too including massive difficulties producing the HBM cards...

Freedomnow,
"at a much greater percentage then NVidia cards..."

LINKS??

 

[Olle P]

The problem with the analysis is that Nvidia captured 75%. This does not look true based on what I know about mining and AMD...

Sure miners wanted AMD cards, but AMD didn't deliver the amount required to fill the demand.
That way Nvidia a) sold a bunch of cards to miners that were unable to buy AMD, and b) sold cards to some gamers that would otherwise also have purchased AMD.

Still, the question is how close to the truth the 75% estimate lies...

 

[redgarl]

The problem with the analysis is that Nvidia captured 75%. This does not look true based on what I know about mining and AMD...

Sure miners wanted AMD cards, but AMD didn't deliver the amount required to fill the demand.
That way Nvidia a) sold a bunch of cards to miners that were unable to buy AMD, and b) sold cards to some gamers that would otherwise also have purchased AMD.

Still, the question is how close to the truth the 75% estimate lies...

Not really a matter and nobody knows the real numbers, but the fact is Nvidia knew about this and lied about it... or they were really dumb.