King Dranzer
Splendid
Yes you are correct but can be argued on few things. Like the die size for starters. I mean yes NVIDIA may take completely different approach for GA102 but there is also a possibility of it using 700+mm square Chip as they did with Turing. Yes Turing TU102 was 750mm.sq while Volta GV100 was 800mm.sq.It will be interesting to see what happens with GA102. It's not really possible to determine what GA102 will have just by looking at GA100. And looking back at Pascal can lead to some poor assumptions.
The GP100 was the data center / deep learning version, and it had up to 60 SMs total with 64 CUDA cores per SM (plus 32 FP64 CUDA cores). That's 3840 total FP32 CUDA cores. GP102 by comparison had up to 30 SMs with 128 FP32 CUDA cores per SM. It had the same total number of FP32 cores (3840), but got there in a very different fashion. So you might think GA102 will do the same thing relative to GA100 -- and it might -- but they're going to be very different beasts.
GA102 will of necessity have RTX cores -- there's no way Nvidia can walk back ray tracing support. In fact, the RT cores are supposedly enhanced and could be up to 4X faster than the Turing RT cores. Which means probably they're going to use a lot more die space. I'd assume the enhanced Ampere Tensor cores will also make an appearance, though that might not be the case. If they're the same ratio as in GA100, though, the GA102 SMs will ditch FP64 and add RT, which might not be much of a difference in size when all is said and done. And that's the problem.
There's no way Nvidia is going to make an 800mm square 'consumer' GPU on 7nm right now. It's just way too expensive. GA100 is going to have a price of roughly $18,750 per GA100 card based on the $199,000 asking price of the DGX A100. ($50K for all the server stuff, $150K for the eight GA100 parts). GP100 was a 610mm square part with a very high price, but GP102 was only 471mm square -- and still went into $1000+ graphics cards.
So, given the massive size of GA100, I suspect Nvidia is going to be aiming closer to 500mm square or less on GA102. And to get there, it will have to trim down the SM and core counts. Where GA100 has up to 128 SMs, I think 80 SMs in GA102 seems far more plausible, giving a maximum of 5120 cores. Clocks could be higher, though, and power will of necessity be less than 300W (and probably 250W for the RTX 3080 Ti). That's my bet, anyway.
And when it comes to price that is the markup they are charging for. I mean Initially Quadro RTX8000 was priced $10,000 while same Chip with lower Memory pairing was offered as Quadro RTX6000 for $6,000.
It may try limiting die size to 500mm.sq but there is nothing stopping it from offering 700mm.sq chip and that will not be as expensive as you think. Only limitation being the initial quantity available.