Ok, time for my points:
@Game_boy
1. Out of the 9 posts you made, 7 (or 8, i probably missed one) of your posts are in this thread wherein you predict things based on rumors. The other post you have is on another thread wherein you recomment the 3870x2.
2. On your original post, 5 out of 7 of your points are SOLELY BASED ON RUMOURS AND HEARSAY. The other two points are the only ones that have some factual basis. On the fifth part:
[quotemsg=6572128,1,154240]......AMD were the first to DirectX 10.1 ....
[/quotemsg]
And probably on the 6th part.
[quotemsg=6572128,1,154240]....AMD, with the 80nm "failed"R600 architecture-based FireGLs, has taken back the performance leadership in the workstation market while being significantly cheaper than Quadro FX.... [/quotemsg]
[quotemsg=6572190,30,154240]Not one post has yet examined all of my points yet. Please criticise all of them if you feel Nvidia is not in trouble.[/quotemsg]
Let me ask you, how could you criticise ideas based upon rumours and unreleased, unannounced products? These are basically just predictions, nothing more nothing less. What you said are as factual as any $2 fortune teller off the street.
Since I'm being so generous today, I'll criticise each of your points:
On your opening line, you did say that nvidia had 3x the market cap. With a ton of money you could do a ton of things, classic example, intel's prescott processor. It was hot, it was energy inefficient, it was slow, but it did sell. With help from intel's money and marketing they were able to sell millions of those things. (Don't talk to me about the morality or correctness of intel's methods, I'm stating what intel was able to do) With all that money, they could just buy off a lot of other companies, and still pounce on AMD.
Point 1: Nvidia's 7xx chipset is not yet released. A lot of things could be changed from beta stages and the retail product.
Point 2: I love the way that you confidently used phrases such as "is rumoured" and "a high chance". Well again, you assumed based on rumours that the 9xxx series would be a rebadge. Also why would nvidia even try to release a new high end product when ATi's flagship model has trouble challenging even nvidia's mainstream.
Point 3: I love this statement, "you haven't seen AMD's real high-end yet," my question to you is that "Have you seen their real high-end?" Unless you're an industry insider, that's a different story. The scores you gave could also be the final scores, or could have only marginal difference with the final score. We could never say until AMD does release it first!
Point 4: Gotta love these predicting lines: "plenty of independent rumours", "some potential model numbers", "there have been very few rumours", "we hear that", "almost ruling out", "I think". I couldn't even begin to comprehend how you could make this a point, as there is no factual point here.
Point 5: My question, who uses DX10.1 now? Yup, nada. Ahh, you say in the future they'd use them. But wouldn't it be also coincidental that probably by the time DX10.1 is used and made a minimum requirement, a line of new and faster 10.1 cards would be out? So I guess we could praise AMD for making a mid-end (or probably low-end) DX10.1 card.
Point 6: Probably the only point that is actually based on news and fact. Though this is not an indicator of the future of nvidia, as they could only make a faster card. Also how could their market share fall? When their money comes a lot from the mainstream GeForce cards. Sure workstation cards have high profits, but sale volumes in non-workstation cards does also make a difference.
Point 7: Larabee and Fusion haven't been released, all we have is marketing and technical white paper. How sure are you that nvidia wouldn't release a unified gpu and cpu before or alongside the big two. The best case release dates of Larabee and Fusion are somewhere along the lines of 2009 all the way up to 2012, so you just shot yourself in the foot with the statement: "I can't make solid predictions beyond 2008 though." Though I favor open-source programs, the users of open-source OS' against Windows or Mac users are still outnumbered by at least 3 to 1. Also the quality of software would be different between 2 paid employees against the work of 10 self-motivated, unpaid coders.
"I think they will try and offer better price/performance as AMD did in 2007" - Uhhh, nvidia and intel did have the better price/performance ratio througout the whole of 2007. Way to shoot yourself again in the foot.
Point 6: