News PC CPU Shipments See Steepest Decline in 30 Years

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GustavoVanni

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Well last few years were the biggest so calm down is only natural. In five year we will get to normal.
Exactly.

In 2020 and 2021 we saw a large spike in PC sales due to a lot of people suddenly needing a new computer to work from home.

No wonder it's slowing down this much, 'cause noone need to buy a new PC every year.
 
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Fates_Demise

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Not surprised, and hopefully it'll make Nvidia, Intel, and AMD cool down their damned prices. During Covid, everyone seemed to want a PC. Remote workers, cryptominers, gamers that did both console and PC that saw it as a good time to upgrade the PC, people with time that wanted to get into streaming, remote/home schooling, etc.

Even the crappiest laptop PC lasts 2-3 years, and I have gotten 8 years out of a good CPU/motherboard/RAM combo (I usually upgrade the GPU more frequently).

Doesn't quite work that way, low demand can actually cause a increase in prices. The machinery and development of chips is substantial. A single lithography machine can cost upwards of 250 million usd. Not to mention the millions of development cost and scrap. All of that has to be paid for somehow so they can't just lower prices beyond a certain point especially with lower sales.
 
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atomicWAR

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Uh, not quite. On compute workloads, AMD managed to deliver a ~45% generational improvement in multithreaded performance, between the 5950X and 7950X, without adding any extra cores!! That's a pretty astonishing achievement, in this day and age.
x2cMJc3dGBZ6QUfBE2c6VV.png

I don't know how people seem to have missed it, except that Raptor Lake managed to eek out a win on gaming performance, and that's what most around here seem to care about. That, and the increase in TDP/PPT seems to have diverted a lot of attention, but you're still left with most of those gains, even if you restrict the 7950X to similar power consumption as its predecessor.

I didn't miss it thankfully. After years of saying I was due to retire my old x79 with a i7 3930K upgraded to a Xeon 1680 V2 system that served me almost too well...I have a nice 7950X sitting in my new rig which will be upgraded to a 3dx version sometime after it drops passing this CPU to my wife rig or our secondary server. We both edit photo/video and like all the cores we can get while also being gamers. Last time we saw AMD this on fire in the CPU space was the Athlon 64 era...its nice to see competition so keen and AMD excuting so well.
 

InvalidError

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Doesn't quite work that way, low demand can actually cause a increase in prices.
Not as much as going bankrupt because all of your equipment is depreciating while you are still incurring all of your fixed costs and generating considerably sub-par revenue. Under-used fabs cost considerable money to shut down and restart too. Cranking up prices to maintain income on dwindling sales is the beginning of a death spiral.
 

bit_user

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Doesn't quite work that way, low demand can actually cause a increase in prices.
Yes. There are at least two components in chip costs we can talk about:

Marginal Cost - the cost of the actual materials and services used to manufacture each additional chip.​
Non-Recurring Engineering Costs - the design, verification, management, software, and manufacturing overheads needed for each new model or product family.​

The NRE costs need to be amortized over the entire production volume. So, the lower your production volumes go, the more dominant NRE becomes. Because of the NRE component, companies actually have less room to cut costs as sales volumes decrease.

While it's possible for prices to equal costs in theory, investors really don't want to see companies running anywhere even close to break even. So, they will demand layoffs and other cost-cutting measures that cause long-term damage to an engineering organization's ability to execute. After such measures, it takes years to rebuild an organization.
 
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bit_user

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Not as much as going bankrupt because all of your equipment is depreciating while you are still incurring all of your fixed costs and generating considerably sub-par revenue. Under-used fabs cost considerable money to shut down and restart too. Cranking up prices to maintain income on dwindling sales is the beginning of a death spiral.
I think that's why fabs tend to require government support. The capital spend is so high, and profits are highly dependent on how much demand materializes months or years hence. That makes it very risky and therefore somewhat unappetizing to many investors.
 

InvalidError

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I think that's why fabs tend to require government support. The capital spend is so high, and profits are highly dependent on how much demand materializes months or years hence. That makes it very risky and therefore somewhat unappetizing to many investors.
Socialize the costs, privatize the gains and still raise prices on top when taxpayers have already paid more than their share of your increased costs and still had abnormally high profit margins? Got to love modern economics.

There should be no tax breaks or bailouts without equity so corporations would quit begging for money unless they actually need it. I bet a lot of Intel and other major corporations' reckless spending is due to the "we'll get bailed out by governments for our screw-ups anyway" mentality.
 

bit_user

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for most ppl those don't matter. they wont notice difference most of the time
Yes, and they're also not buying a 5950X. So, not directly relevant to the point I was trying to make. The presumption was that we're talking about someone who's doing something CPU-limited.

BTW, if you go down to the 5600X -> 7600X, the speedup drops to "only" 34.2%.

No real benefit in upgrading every 1-5 yrs.
I never said anyone should upgrade that often, but if you're doing lots of highly-multithreaded work and waiting around for it to finish, then a 45% speedup could actually be justifiable. However, if their CPU were that much of a pain point, they'd probably have already stepped up to a ThreadRipper by now.
 

bit_user

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Socialize the costs, privatize the gains and still raise prices on top when taxpayers have already paid more than their share of your increased costs and still had abnormally high profit margins?
That's not what I said. You're taking a simple point I made, festooning it with a lot of baggage, and putting it into a specific political and economic context. My point was an abstract one, and how well or poorly it's implemented has more to do with the specific system. The fact is that many governments underwrite these activities for the reasons I mentioned.

If we want modern process nodes and price stability, I don't see you pitching any better ideas.

I bet a lot of Intel and other major corporations' reckless spending is due to the "we'll get bailed out by governments for our screw-ups anyway" mentality.
You're really starting to get unhinged, here. An engineering company, like Intel, is not like a bank. Maybe the government would step in to keep some of its fabs operational, in the event of a bankruptcy scenario. But, if it ever came to that, the amount of damage done to the rest of the organization would be catastrophic and probably something they'd never recover from. I'm sure "government bailouts" were nobody's "plan B", at Intel. Let's be clear about this: if things at Intel ever got so bad they needed a government bailout, every C-suite exec would've been tossed out and most of senior management would be replaced. Worse (for them), most of their compensation is in stock options, which would be worthless after the stock price completely cratered. That's why I'm so sure none of them views it as a viable plan B.

Intel's recent financial performance is not due to "reckless investments", but mainly a problem of building up too much inventory and very costly & unfortunate delays. Sapphire Rapids missed its product window, and you cannot overstate the damage that did to Intel's bottom line. Similarly ARC missed the pandemic gaming/mining boom, which probably could've made it profitable.

As for the layoffs and closing of business units, that's business as usual, at Intel. They try a bunch of things, and kill off the ones that don't pan out. It's like a venture capitalist approach, where they don't need to have all their eggs in the right basket, as long as they make sure they have an egg in any basket that looks like it might turn out to be the next big thing.
 
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InvalidError

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Intel's recent financial performance is not due to "reckless investments", but mainly a problem of building up too much inventory and very costly & unfortunate delays.
Its missed deadlines and the subsequent impact on deliverables is due to Intel spreading itself too thin across too many "non-core" market segments, which we see in Intel's recent restructuring and cancelling of product lines. It tried to cover too many bases and fell flat on its face.
 

bit_user

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Its missed deadlines and the subsequent impact on deliverables is due to Intel spreading itself too thin across too many "non-core" market segments,
No, it's due to all the share buybacks and their generous dividends. Compared to that, Intel's investment in things like GPUs was small potatoes.

which we see in Intel's recent restructuring and cancelling of product lines. It tried to cover too many bases and fell flat on its face.
No, that's nothing new, for Intel. You aren't looking at their full track-record. You're suffering from recency bias. You've heard about them canceling Optane and things like their network switch business (which came along with their acquisition of Barefoot Networks, BTW) and you're connecting it to their financial performance. In actuality, Intel is always dipping their toe in new markets and then cutting their losses when (usually) it doesn't pan out. Some of the recent cutbacks were spurred by their historic losses, but those were probably cuts that would've eventually come, anyhow.
 

bit_user

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The track record: get side-tracked in failed side-projects,
I don't think they're getting sidetracked. They know what their core business is, but they've been continually searching for markets beyond the PC. I think the headline of this article shows the wisdom in that - you don't want all your eggs in the PC basket.

As for tax breaks and the like, you see that with pretty much every manufacturing operation. I don't think it's fair to pin that on Intel, or even high tech in general. If you want to talk politics, more broadly, that's a different forum.

It seems like you have a big chip on your shoulder, and it's not helping the discussion.
 

InvalidError

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As for tax breaks and the like, you see that with pretty much every manufacturing operation. I don't think it's fair to pin that on Intel, or even high tech in general. If you want to talk politics, more broadly, that's a different forum.
If you beg for tax breaks and subsidies, your company should be banned from doing stock buybacks, paying dividends, executive bonuses and compensation increases until the tax breaks and subsidies have been reimbursed.
 

bit_user

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If you beg for tax breaks and subsidies, your company should be banned from doing stock buybacks, paying dividends, executive bonuses and compensation increases until the tax breaks and subsidies have been reimbursed.
As sensible as that sounds, where you get into trouble is with the "begging" part, because the tax breaks usually happen during bidding wars when companies are deciding where to locate new offices or plants. Companies would say they're offered these incentives. I think there are better ways to discourage share buybacks and excessive dividends; instead, encouraging reinvestment in the business - but, that again is a discussion that probably belongs on a different forum.
 
Apple's OSes and Valve's Steam OS are likely starting to take a chunk out of Windows x86 too.
Steam OS is barely on the radar. Looking at the latest Steam Hardware survey, the OS amounts to 22% of Linux users on Steam, but Linux users in total only amount to 1.38% of systems, meaning only around 0.3% of Steam users use SteamOS, and those are all on the Steam Deck, since it still isn't publicly available for general system use. I imagine it probably won't be ideal for installing as a general purpose PC OS either, as there are likely much better desktop-oriented Linux Distros for anything outside of specifically gaming within Steam's ecosystem in either a portable or living-room environment. And of course, lots of games and gaming platforms are not available on Linux, so most probably won't consider that option for anything but a secondary device.

As for Macs, OSX only amounts to 2.61% of Steam users, whereas just over 96% are using Windows, going by Steam's data. As for whether those alternative OSes are making any inroads, if we check the January 2013 Steam Hardware survey from a decade ago on the Internet Archive, we see that about 94.56% used Windows, 3.56% used Macs, 1.12% used Ubuntu, and 0.76% used "other", probably older and less common variants of those operating systems. So, compared to a decade ago, the percentage of Mac users is down, the percentage of non-Steam Deck Linux users is at least slightly down, and the percentage of Windows users is actually higher than it was then, at least as far as systems running Steam is concerned. And since it would take a lot of additional effort to port and optimize games for Apple's new processor architecture, compared to the much more similar architecture used for x86 PCs and consoles, fewer developers are likely to bother targeting that small market, causing Mac usage share among gamers to slip even further.
 

bit_user

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And of course, lots of games and gaming platforms are not available on Linux, so most probably won't consider that option for anything but a secondary device.
I think most games run under Wine, though. Between 5-10 years ago, there were lots of native Linux ports showing up, but I think the pace has slowed as Wine has continued to improve. I'm pretty sure even Stem Deck runs Wine, for some games.

whereas just over 96% are using Windows,
I'll bet Wine shows up as Windows. At least, if you're running the Steam client itself in Wine.

since it would take a lot of additional effort to port and optimize games for Apple's new processor architecture,
I wonder how many Mac users are now running games in Rosetta. It can host a Windows VM, too.
 
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JeffreyP55

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While x86 processor sales trends have seen their worst inflexion in history, a lot of the blame here may be in inventory adjustments, not simply the cooling of demand.

PC CPU Shipments See Steepest Decline in 30 Years : Read more
I was raped for the prices of my 5950x and RTX3080Ti. Newer stuff is not worth it yet. The gains are pitiful. Remember the deal with DD3 to DDR4. Even the 486 outpreformed the Pentium when it was fresh out of the box. People have a need for the latest garbage. Having the latest stuff nobody needs regardless of the price. Need that stuff right now!! :)
 
I think most games run under Wine, though. Between 5-10 years ago, there were lots of native Linux ports showing up, but I think the pace has slowed as Wine has continued to improve. I'm pretty sure even Stem Deck runs Wine, for some games.

I'll bet Wine shows up as Windows. At least, if you're running the Steam client itself in Wine.

I wonder how many Mac users are now running games in Rosetta. It can host a Windows VM, too.
Linux users will appear as Linux, since they will almost certainly be using the Linux Steam client with the Proton compatibility layer developed by Valve, which was built off of Wine. It was made specifically for improving compatibility with games, so running Windows games through Steam on Linux any other way generally wouldn't make much sense. And as for Windows running in a VM, that's still Windows.

As for the games not compatible with Linux, those include many popular titles either requiring incompatible game clients, or packaged with incompatible anti-cheat software, and that still covers a lot of popular multiplayer games. And even on games that work, compatibility can sometimes be spotty. It's certainly possible to run a lot of games on Linux today, but at this stage, there are still enough issues running popular games that most probably wouldn't consider it a viable alternative for their primary gaming system.
 
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