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Archived from groups: comp.arch,comp.sys.ibm.pc.hardware.chips,comp.sys.intel (More info?)
"Yousuf Khan" <bbbl67@ezrs.com> writes:
>Douglas Siebert wrote:
>> Yes, Intel can definitely do that. But consider this: Right now AMD
>> is selling everything they can make, supplying a desktop market that's
>> growing slowly, and a server market that's growing quickly (easy to do
>> considering it was essentially zero 18 months ago) 90nm gives them
>> more chips due to the smaller die sizes, but they have to supply their
>> existing desktop market, fast growing server market, and plan to
>> attack the mobile market as well in 90nm. They may simply not have
>> the capacity to attack the dual core desktop market in any meaningful
>> way until they move to their new 300mm fab at 65nm in 2006. Sure,
>> they might sell some dual core Athlon FXs, since those are just
>> Opterons with a different pinout and they will be selling dual core
>> Opterons next summer. But if Intel moves aggressively to dual cores
>> across their whole desktop range by this time next year, AMD probably
>> won't be able to answer.
>I don't think Intel would want to move whole-hog into dual-cores for the
>desktop. Dual cores on the desktop would be expensive to build and therefore
>expensive to purchase. Dual cores will become their top-line processors to
>make up for performance no longer available through continous clockspeed
>increases. First they'll start out with bigger caches, but that will quickly
>come to a point of diminishing returns, and then they will try dual-core to
>further increase performance.
They will produce as many as necessary to use up their spare fab capacity.
Having $2 billion fabs partially idle is a poor business decision, and it
isn't as if they couldn't sell all the dual cores with one failed core as
a single core, so the cost of making a dual core is at worst double that of
making a single core. And the true cost of making a P4 is probably
something on the order of $25, so they could certainly sell their dual
core CPUs at pretty much the same price points as they sell single cores,
if they wished. What pricing scheme they actually choose will, like the
way they price all their CPUs, have to do with marketing and maximizing
their margins rather than having anything much to do with their production
cost.
I wouldn't be surprised to see them match up the prices to the single
core line. So the fastest dual core (3.2 GHz/1MB) would be priced the
same as their fastest single core at the time, which is always around
$600-ish. Then $400-ish for the next, and $275-ish for the last (2.8
GHz/1MB)
--
Douglas Siebert dsiebert@excisethis.khamsin.net
"They that can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary
safety deserve neither liberty nor safety" -- Thomas Jefferson
"Yousuf Khan" <bbbl67@ezrs.com> writes:
>Douglas Siebert wrote:
>> Yes, Intel can definitely do that. But consider this: Right now AMD
>> is selling everything they can make, supplying a desktop market that's
>> growing slowly, and a server market that's growing quickly (easy to do
>> considering it was essentially zero 18 months ago) 90nm gives them
>> more chips due to the smaller die sizes, but they have to supply their
>> existing desktop market, fast growing server market, and plan to
>> attack the mobile market as well in 90nm. They may simply not have
>> the capacity to attack the dual core desktop market in any meaningful
>> way until they move to their new 300mm fab at 65nm in 2006. Sure,
>> they might sell some dual core Athlon FXs, since those are just
>> Opterons with a different pinout and they will be selling dual core
>> Opterons next summer. But if Intel moves aggressively to dual cores
>> across their whole desktop range by this time next year, AMD probably
>> won't be able to answer.
>I don't think Intel would want to move whole-hog into dual-cores for the
>desktop. Dual cores on the desktop would be expensive to build and therefore
>expensive to purchase. Dual cores will become their top-line processors to
>make up for performance no longer available through continous clockspeed
>increases. First they'll start out with bigger caches, but that will quickly
>come to a point of diminishing returns, and then they will try dual-core to
>further increase performance.
They will produce as many as necessary to use up their spare fab capacity.
Having $2 billion fabs partially idle is a poor business decision, and it
isn't as if they couldn't sell all the dual cores with one failed core as
a single core, so the cost of making a dual core is at worst double that of
making a single core. And the true cost of making a P4 is probably
something on the order of $25, so they could certainly sell their dual
core CPUs at pretty much the same price points as they sell single cores,
if they wished. What pricing scheme they actually choose will, like the
way they price all their CPUs, have to do with marketing and maximizing
their margins rather than having anything much to do with their production
cost.
I wouldn't be surprised to see them match up the prices to the single
core line. So the fastest dual core (3.2 GHz/1MB) would be priced the
same as their fastest single core at the time, which is always around
$600-ish. Then $400-ish for the next, and $275-ish for the last (2.8
GHz/1MB)
--
Douglas Siebert dsiebert@excisethis.khamsin.net
"They that can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary
safety deserve neither liberty nor safety" -- Thomas Jefferson