News Raja Koduri To Present at Samsung Foundry Event as Intel Mulls Outsourcing Strategy

[Admin]

Intel's Raja Koduri is slated to present at Samsung's Foundry SAFE Forum as Intel mulls its fabrication outsourcing strategy.

Raja Koduri To Present at Samsung Foundry Event as Intel Mulls Outsourcing Strategy : Read more

 

[Kamen Rider Blade]

I don't think Intel would want to empower it's #1 Foundry opponent, TSMC.

Samsung would be a safe bet, it's at least far ahead enough that it can produce something of value, and they have cheap waffer prices and capacity.

 

[JayNor]

from the CC:

"Now we've deployed the fix and made wonderful progress."

Note that Xe-HPG is being built in an external fab, and Intel announced it is back in the lab already.

Intel also builds their eyeq5 ADAS chip in tsmc 7nm since 2018.

 

[zodiacfml]

Don't like Intel since Pentium 4 but these executives are killing Intel by saving a lot of money on R&D or expenses since 14nm. If they don't change leadership, Intel will continue to lose market share since Intel will be on the same process node and manufacturing expenses as AMD.

 

[vinay2070]

I don't think Intel would want to empower it's #1 Foundry opponent, TSMC.

Samsung would be a safe bet, it's at least far ahead enough that it can produce something of value, and they have cheap waffer prices and capacity.

But look how its going for nvidia, even with its good design and architecture.

 

[TerryLaze]

Don't like Intel since Pentium 4 but these executives are killing Intel by saving a lot of money on R&D or expenses since 14nm. If they don't change leadership, Intel will continue to lose market share since Intel will be on the same process node and manufacturing expenses as AMD.

"These executives" made intel double their net income the last two years with the current and third year shaping up to be the same.

Intel is losing market share from the 100% market share they had,so yes they are losing market share but they also never should have had so much of the market share in the first place and only had it because AMD had no product of any importance at all available.

Intel is making tons of money because 14nm is much cheaper to make than buying 7nm from TSMC as AMD is forced to do, AMD has barely made any money from zen because they are forced to give all their margin to the fabs making the chips for them.

 

[JamesSneed]

"These executives" made intel double their net income the last two years with the current and third year shaping up to be the same.

Intel is losing market share from the 100% market share they had,so yes they are losing market share but they also never should have had so much of the market share in the first place and only had it because AMD had no product of any importance at all available.

Intel is making tons of money because 14nm is much cheaper to make than buying 7nm from TSMC as AMD is forced to do, AMD has barely made any money from zen because they are forced to give all their margin to the fabs making the chips for them.

You are right about Intel's earnings but I think what we will see is the Intel executives focused on the business side not the R&D tech side which has resulted in more short term revenue. At least its looking like that right now. So yes they have done well marketing Intel products but there competitor has pushed as hard as they can to innovate and as of now has just passed Intel on performance in every metric. Unless Intel can pull a rabbit out of there hat they are going to have one hell of a 2021.

AMD is making OK margins(I think there 4th quarter will show that) and those will increase over 2021 as they charge more with a superior product to Intel. Intel's 14nm is cheaper but it Intel is now the performance looser so they will have to sell those products at a lower price than AMD. Long term Intel's strategy is going to to hurt. The only real hope is they escalate there 7nm EUV development as 10nm is not going to cut it. By the time 10nm is in full production AMD will be on or very close to 5nm EUV from TSMC which should be a vastly superior process compared to TRSMC's current 7nm.

 

[TerryLaze]

You are right about Intel's earnings but I think what we will see is the Intel executives focused on the business side not the R&D tech side which has resulted in more short term revenue. At least its looking like that right now.

Making the same amount of money and even double that from the same arch for 5 years is short term while burning through a new node/arch each year to make any money is long term?
Also intel has already researched several future architectures several nodes a new iGPU/GPU whole system on a PCI CPU on a nvme hard drives on memory slots and those are just the better known things they already have out.

and as of now has just passed Intel on performance in every metric. Unless Intel can pull a rabbit out of there hat they are going to have one hell of a 2021.

As of now no they didn't, in two weeks when zen 3 comes out we will see if it passes intel or just equals them.
Even if ZEN 3 is better intel will release rocket lake in a few months and it will be back to the current balance.

 

[JamesSneed]

Making the same amount of money and even double that from the same arch for 5 years is short term while burning through a new node/arch each year to make any money is long term?
Also intel has already researched several future architectures several nodes a new iGPU/GPU whole system on a PCI CPU on a nvme hard drives on memory slots and those are just the better known things they already have out.

As of now no they didn't, in two weeks when zen 3 comes out we will see if it passes intel or just equals them.
Even if ZEN 3 is better intel will release rocket lake in a few months and it will be back to the current balance.

Yes that same arch over 5 years is very short sided. Sure they milked it for every penny and increased share holder value but they lost sight of making the best possible product they can. I know they were thinking they didn't want to compete with themselves but stagnating to increase revenue never works out for very long in any industry but doubly so in high tech.

No Rocket Lake is not going to compete with AMD's Zen3 especially in the server and HPC markets. Intel simply can not get to the higher core counts on a monolithic design, the power usage is going to be much higher which matters a ton for servers/hpc/supercomputers, and don't have a CPU design that is as high bandwidth. Rocket Lake may compete on the desktop but even there AMD will have 12-16 core parts that Intel cant touch.

I get where you are coming from but mark my words Intel is going to have a terrible 2021 as market share slowly dwindles. I do think Intel's 7nm EUV is going to be great and along with that EMIB/Foveros chiplet designs will be more elegant than AMD but we are looking later 2022 until then AMD is in full domination.

 

[Kamen Rider Blade]

But look how its going for nvidia, even with its good design and architecture.

Those are temporary issues that will get dealt with time & experience in mass production.

You got to remember, those sweet Per Waffer savings is what will attract "Bean counters" to Samsung, and we know Intel is run by a "Bean Counter" currently.

 

[TerryLaze]

Yes that same arch over 5 years is very short sided. Sure they milked it for every penny and increased share holder value but they lost sight of making the best possible product they can. I know they were thinking they didn't want to compete with themselves but stagnating to increase revenue never works out for very long in any industry but doubly so in high tech.

Sure if they don't have anything new it's very bad but why do you think that they don't have anything new?
The best possible product is the one that makes them the most possible money and until now at least 14nm was making them exactly that.
They didn't need anything better
as a FAB they don't need to attract new customers,
because as a chip maker they already sell all they can
for prestige?! They are already seen as the top player in the industry.

No Rocket Lake is not going to compete with AMD's Zen3 especially in the server and HPC markets. Intel simply can not get to the higher core counts on a monolithic design, the power usage is going to be much higher which matters a ton for servers/hpc/supercomputers, and don't have a CPU design that is as high bandwidth. Rocket Lake may compete on the desktop but even there AMD will have 12-16 core parts that Intel cant touch.

Because you say so?!Why do you think RL won't compete? Intel claims the same 20% IPC increase that AMD claims and intel has the brand name and the volume, let alone the 5Ghz + all core clocks.
Servers and the like need specialized hardware which is why everybody makes AI chips and bakes them into GPUs, rumors say that AMD is trying to buy into AI for 30 billion that they don't have and which will ruin them if they go through with it.Anything that they would need x86 for they can also easily run on arm which is even more power conscience than zen.

Desktop users don't need that many cores and won't need them for a lot of years to come, there are a decent number of desktop users that buy many cored CPUs but you can't build your success on that, the most sold CPUs are still dual cores for all the office PCs in the world.

I get where you are coming from but mark my words Intel is going to have a terrible 2021 as market share slowly dwindles. I do think Intel's 7nm EUV is going to be great and along with that EMIB/Foveros chiplet designs will be more elegant than AMD but we are looking later 2022 until then AMD is in full domination.

Intel can lose half their income in '21 and they will end up where they were before ZEN, you can call that terrible if you want to but intel will still be making around 10 billion more than what amd will be making.
Intel makes 20 bil a year the last two years ,this year they made around 15bil until now and they have another quarter to go.

AMD net income for the twelve months ending June 30, 2020 was $609M, a 218.85% increase year-over-year.
Intel net income for the twelve months ending September 30, 2020 was $21.947B, a 13.49% increase year-over-year.
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AMD/amd/net-income

 

[spongiemaster]

No Rocket Lake is not going to compete with AMD's Zen3 especially in the server and HPC markets. Intel simply can not get to the higher core counts on a monolithic design, the power usage is going to be much higher which matters a ton for servers/hpc/supercomputers, and don't have a CPU design that is as high bandwidth. Rocket Lake may compete on the desktop but even there AMD will have 12-16 core parts that Intel cant touch.

Intel sells 8p servers while AMD tops out at 2. A 28 core 8p server would be 224 cores/448 threads, while a dual Epyc server is 128 cores/256 threads. So Intel is still safe at the very top end. Where Intel is going to hurt is in the lower end. The new 1/2p 10nm 3rd gen Xeon scalable chips are expected to go up to 36 cores, which would be only 72 cores in a dual core system compared to Epyc's 128 cores. Efficiency should be quite a bit better for the 10nm Xeons.

 

[vinay2070]

Those are temporary issues that will get dealt with time & experience in mass production.

You got to remember, those sweet Per Waffer savings is what will attract "Bean counters" to Samsung, and we know Intel is run by a "Bean Counter" currently.

We do not know, intel also had issues with 10nm and it still has, never corrected properly. And even by the time it gets corrected, the competition will be mass producing on a smaller node. nvidia is now considering TSMC for its future 30 series, because it may not be able to compete with TSMC cards staying on Samsung. On top of that there are rumours that nvidia is not even paying the wafer price, but per working piece of silicon price.

 

[Kamen Rider Blade]

We do not know, intel also had issues with 10nm and it still has, never corrected properly.

They sure as hell are trying to correct it, we'll see soon enough with AlderLake & Tiger Lake if they have enough chip supply.

And even by the time it gets corrected, the competition will be mass producing on a smaller node. nvidia is now considering TSMC for its future 30 series, because it may not be able to compete with TSMC cards staying on Samsung.

That's a Jensen Huang problem, TSMC isn't going to give Jensen Huang a lower price, so it's up to him if he can accept paying more per chip / waffer and selling his cards for a higher price or lower margin or some mix of both.

On top of that there are rumours that nvidia is not even paying the wafer price, but per working piece of silicon price.

Yeah, that all depends on how bad the yeilds are for Samsung. I've heard the same rumors, but even if he was paying per silicon, Jensen got what he wanted, cheaper GPU dies.
There are some temporary issues with production, but considering nVIDIA is a Tier 1 level customer, I'm sure Samsung is bending over backwards to keep them happy.
No expense will be spared to fix manufacturing issues.

 

[vinay2070]

That's a Jensen Huang problem, TSMC isn't going to give Jensen Huang a lower price, so it's up to him if he can accept paying more per chip / waffer and selling his cards for a higher price or lower margin or some mix of both.

Its not about cost or price per chip, its about yeilds. If intel stays with samsung, intel might see the same problem that nvidia is facing now. There are no guarantees that yeild will conderably improve in over a short time for samsung (with intel as an example). So cost per wafer makes no sense when there are not enough chips to sell in the first place.

 

[Kamen Rider Blade]

So cost per wafer makes no sense when there are not enough chips to sell in the first place.

Then Intel will make Samsung eat the loss and switch to cost per chip like Jensen has according to rumor.

 

[vinay2070]

Then Intel will make Samsung eat the loss and switch to cost per chip like Jensen has according to rumor.

Whats the point? You will lose market to competition. Even if you have a killer chip design but no chips to sell where as competition has lesser design but more chips ready to sell, guess who wins?

 

[JamesSneed]

Intel sells 8p servers while AMD tops out at 2. A 28 core 8p server would be 224 cores/448 threads, while a dual Epyc server is 128 cores/256 threads. So Intel is still safe at the very top end. Where Intel is going to hurt is in the lower end. The new 1/2p 10nm 3rd gen Xeon scalable chips are expected to go up to 36 cores, which would be only 72 cores in a dual core system compared to Epyc's 128 cores. Efficiency should be quite a bit better for the 10nm Xeons.

You have a point about the 4p/8p servers which there is a place for those and I haven't heard anything if AMD has any > 2p solutions coming. Don't know yet but Zen3 EPYC's should be far more power efficient than current Xeons. When Intel is slated for 10nm Xeons AMD will have or shortly follow with Zen4 on TSMC's 5nm which should be considerably more power efficient than Intel's 10nm. Intel has a pretty big uphill battle until they get new designs on 7nm. There 10nm node is going to be ok but its mostly going to end up competing against TSMC's 5nm on EUV .

 

[spongiemaster]

You have a point about the 4p/8p servers which there is a place for those and I haven't heard anything if AMD has any > 2p solutions coming. Don't know yet but Zen3 EPYC's should be far more power efficient than current Xeons. When Intel is slated for 10nm Xeons AMD will have or shortly follow with Zen4 on TSMC's 5nm which should be considerably more power efficient than Intel's 10nm. Intel has a pretty big uphill battle until they get new designs on 7nm. There 10nm node is going to be ok but its mostly going to end up competing against TSMC's 5nm on EUV .

Yea sorry, my crappy grammar made my point confusing. I meant the efficiency of the 10nm Xeon should be quite a bit better vs Intel's current 14nm Xeon. I wasn't comparing them to anything AMD has or will have. If Intel 10nm is comparable to AMD 7nm, Intel will probably push the clocks higher to compensate somewhat for the lower core counts enough so that AMD will have better performance/watt.