you will save virtually nothing by getting a perfectly sized psu... psu's are most efficient between perhaps 50% and 80% of capacity, pushing up to 90% and the cooling system for the psu will get more stressed and generate greater losses, spin up the fan more (which uses power), and perhaps fail. PSU's fail quickly at full load, its not a case of 10hrs at full load is ok, but 20 is not, it'll go quickly.
I'll repeat what someone else has said, to within a few % the power at the wall is the same regardless of the psu size, and to give you a clue as to the cost, that few % will cost you maybe 10 watts per hour, so for every 100 hours that the pc is on at load you'll use an extra unit of power. You'd be far far better choosing a low power cpu and a lower powered gpu, and focusing on the mobo to choose a low power one, and low voiltage memory, fewer case fans, green HDD's. Perhaps ensuring that your tv is green, or perhaps not having a htpc, but using a dvd player hdd recorder which with less operating system overhead will be a lot cheaper to buy and run.
done some sums, at 10W extra losses due to a mis sized supply, at 5c per unit of electricity, on 24x7, will save you $4.60 per year. Is that worth the risk of killing your system, or the extra noise (in fact a 5w fan spinning at full as opposed to a near passive cooling would cost you another $2.30) so getting a bigger supply would probably only cost you $2.30. all at 5c/kwh multiply up the costs are more.