>Has anyone done an analysis on the BOM cost?...Perhaps Qualcomm and partners can't afford to price it lower based on Microsoft system requirements to be an "AI PC".
Laptop pricing isn't cost-based, but is mainly target-based. For this initial WoA launch, the emphasis is on performance & battery life, which explains usage of the top X Elite line as opposed to the lower X Plus or some other SoC. It's also why most of these sport OLED which is a premium part as opposed to just IPS.
The target then is the premium ultraportable segment, which is indeed in the $1K-2K range.
It's SOP for a new category launch to target early adopter demo who are price-insensitive, and more tolerant of compatibility issues. Doing a "value" launch for mainstreamers wouldn't make sense at this point anyway, as compatibility caveats would turn them away even if price points are good.
>I would be interested in a netbook level spec with one of these(or even a handheld/mini desktop), I think that is the killer market.
I agree that yours above would be a compelling use case, although constraints exist. One, a cheaper SoC likely would not come from Qualcomm, but another vendor like MediaTek. That reportedly will happen next year,
https://reuters.com/technology/medi...-microsofts-ai-laptops-say-sources-2024-06-11
A caveat on top of this caveat is that MediaTek's forte is in high-volume, low(er)-margin SoC, and unless this early adopter WoA gen can get traction, MediaTek & associated OEMs may not stick around for Act Two.
Two, SoC cost is only a portion of overall unit (laptop) cost. Other parts (screen, RAM, SSD, etc) cost the same regardless of platform. You can find $400 Wintel laptops that are relatively full-featured, and WoA laptops can only compete if it has sufficient economy of scale (and compatibility issues are ironed out). This goes back to point one, that WoA has to first get traction, THEN get big--both of which are still question marks.
What's not a question is that for both to become true, it will take time--at least a few years. The company doing the heavy lift has to be Microsoft as chief evanglist, and it'll need to be a multi-year effort. I'm not sure if MS has the perseverance, and this won't become an aborted venture like many before it.
Personally, I hope WoA will be a thing, simply for the increased competition. As an investor/betting man, I assign it less than even odds. AI was to be a key driver for WoA, and MS fumbled that ball, so the key pitch is now battery life, which is not that compelling. Both Intel & AMD are hot on WoA trail with LNL & Ryzen AI, respectively.
So, rubbing my rabbit's foot and burning some incense for WoA. But you won't see me putting any money on it at this point.