News TSMC charts a course to trillion-transistor chips, eyes 1nm monolithic chips with 200 billion transistors

[Admin]

Transistor density will continue to increase with new process technologies, TSMC believes.

TSMC charts a course to trillion-transistor chips, eyes 1nm monolithic chips with 200 billion transistors : Read more

 

[George³]

It's a grim prospect. I don't even know how to arrange so many tightly packed transistors to work. It was a time when transistors were few and far between. And now we read about times when there will be more and more redundant, perhaps completely unnecessary, number of transistors.

 

[usertests]

It's a grim prospect. I don't even know how to arrange so many tightly packed transistors to work. It was a time when transistors were few and far between. And now we read about times when there will be more and more redundant, perhaps completely unnecessary, number of transistors.

Last I heard, "AI" is being used to arrange them and cut down on inefficiencies.

 

[neojack]

how would 1nm be even possible without triggering quantum effects ?

going to 2 to 1 nm essentially means doubling the process's efficiency in like 3 years. it's very ambitious.

 

[bit_user]

how would 1nm be even possible without triggering quantum effects ?

Because these numbers are just marketing lies.

At best, they refer to relative areal density improvements. However, density could be improved in many ways, such as backside power delivery, because it reduces the amount of die area spent on power delivery, thereby improving logic density. All, without actually shrinking any of the logic elements, yet they count it as a density improvement, because that's the net effect.

One advancement they've revealed is a new transistor design:

https://www.tomshardware.com/news/intel-and-tsmc-to-report-on-next-gen-cfet-transistor-progress
​

You'll find more, here:

https://www.tomshardware.com/news/imec-reveals-sub-1nm-transistor-roadmap-3d-stacked-cmos-20-plans
​

 

[jasonf2]

how would 1nm be even possible without triggering quantum effects ?

going to 2 to 1 nm essentially means doubling the process's efficiency in like 3 years. it's very ambitious.

If you look at the slide they are noting different channel materials. Quantum tunneling happens at different rates for different materials. That isn't to say that the transistor design itself won't be designed to be more resilient to tunneling effects as well (ie thicker 3d barrier). Also the fab industry has been really bad about overstating node size to its smallest component, not the average size. That is for the most part why intel rebranded 10nm to "Intel 7" because it is really pretty equivalent to what TSMC calls 7nm. So what is 1nm really? At a real 1 nm you are only 3-10 atoms wide depending on the atom.

Intel and TSMC are in a full on race right now. I think it is pretty safe to say that this last leg of the race to minimum possible transistor size is going to be really ambitious and really expensive for both companies. Contracts from companies like Qualcom, Apple, Nvidia and possibly AMD are going to make or break the bankroll for future development if these fabs really move into the $20 billion + number.

 

[George.a.spix]

Last I heard, "AI" is being used to arrange them and cut down on inefficiencies.

There is a billion dollars hiding behind the first supplier to integrate Cadence or it's equivalent with an scanning electron Microscope or a secondary emission scanner. To scan a sample die for it's roads streets and buildings. And compare it with what was designed in the tools. Run a short test using the scan rings. And if it checks out we have some confidence that what was built is what was designed. Then back we go to the stepper and ticky tacky out die that are identical to the verified die. So we need not spend all that money within the US to create unneeded duplicate fabs in the interest of attempting to protect a given die from being altered by some government or adversary or or even business interest.. for all I know this may already be going on, but I have not seen any evidence of it. As we continue to build Fabs to build essentially the same chips. Unclear if this is because of some national interest to create your own assurance by owning the end to end process at Great expense. Rather than address the actual issue in all cases. Is what has been built what was specified?

 

[bit_user]

scan a sample die for it's roads streets and buildings. And compare it with what was designed in the tools.

Shouldn't it be enough just to analyze the masks? That should be easier and masks are becoming such a bottleneck in the production process that it's impractical for a bad actor to make alternate masks and swap them in. I feel like this is probably being done, on some level, just to validate that the masks don't have defects, in which case maybe what you really want to verify is the net list against the RTL.

we need not spend all that money within the US to create unneeded duplicate fabs in the interest of attempting to protect a given die from being altered by some government or adversary or or even business interest.

I think that's not the main concern. The issue is quite simply the supply chain. If the governments of Taiwan or South Korea turned hostile, it could restrict or halt domestic supply of cutting edge chips, with devastating economic consequences... or have you already forgotten the Great Chip Shortage of '21 - '22? That would be just a taste of what could happen...

 

[George.a.spix]

Shouldn't it be enough just to analyze the masks? That should be easier and masks are becoming such a bottleneck in the production process that it's impractical for a bad actor to make alternate masks and swap them in. I feel like this is probably being done, on some level, just to validate that the masks don't have defects, in which case maybe what you really want to verify is the net list against the RTL.


I think that's not the main concern. The issue is quite simply the supply chain. If the governments of Taiwan or South Korea turned hostile, it could restrict or halt domestic supply of cutting edge chips, with devastating economic consequences... or have you already forgotten the Great Chip Shortage of '21 - '22? That would be just a taste of what could happen...

I'm not sure I understand, if there are standard between steppers, we should not care which Fab makes the chips, so we can have any supplier do that. Just like happened when Ford came out with standards for parts. When there was a supply chain interruption they would simply go to other manufacturers who were already competing in that space on something other than design. Like quality and cost. As they were already having to track every use of apart as they needed to assign responsibility for a given failure that forced a recall to the manufacturer or that part of the supply chain that was responsible. So I believe it's in our interest to ensure that we don't care which Fab burned the part. As long as we could check at least one die out of the lot at least once before we let the steppers run wild replicating. You're right about the RTL but I believe that's one step short of an actual verification where a scanning electron microscope or a secondary emission scope can inspect not only the streets and buildings but the plumbing underneath via's Etc. I have thought about just verifying the mask but I still think this is insufficient. As we seem to be reluctant to let any Fab in the world create chips that we might need to use, including for military applications. Where if we can't use and compete parts around the world. We greatly damage our ability to fight, our security and even safety in my opinion

 

[bit_user]

if there are standard between steppers, we should not care which Fab makes the chips, so we can have any supplier do that.

Cutting-edge silicon fabrication is not just a commodity service, where you can swap in one manufacturer for another. Even if it were, there's a limited amount of global production capacity available.

we seem to be reluctant to let any Fab in the world create chips that we might need to use, including for military applications.

Again, I think this point is overemphasized. The main issue is just ensuring adequate supply.

For instance, food can be grown in any country. Does that mean we don't need to worry about growing our own food? No, most countries consider it a matter of national security to retain some domestic food production capacity, even when it must be subsidized to make it economically viable.

Same thing, here.

 

[usertests]

There is a billion dollars hiding behind the first supplier to integrate Cadence or it's equivalent with an scanning electron Microscope or a secondary emission scanner. To scan a sample die for it's roads streets and buildings. And compare it with what was designed in the tools. Run a short test using the scan rings. And if it checks out we have some confidence that what was built is what was designed. Then back we go to the stepper and ticky tacky out die that are identical to the verified die. So we need not spend all that money within the US to create unneeded duplicate fabs in the interest of attempting to protect a given die from being altered by some government or adversary or or even business interest.. for all I know this may already be going on, but I have not seen any evidence of it. As we continue to build Fabs to build essentially the same chips. Unclear if this is because of some national interest to create your own assurance by owning the end to end process at Great expense. Rather than address the actual issue in all cases. Is what has been built what was specified?

This is the exact thing I was thinking of when I wrote the comment, DREAMPlace:

AutoDMP Optimizes Macro Placement for Chip Design with AI and GPUs | NVIDIA Technical Blog

Macro placement has a tremendous impact on the landscape of the chip, directly affecting many design metrics, such as area and power consumption.

developer.nvidia.com

But there's more:

Silicon Express Lanes: AI, Acceleration Pave Fast Routes for Chip Designers

Machine learning and accelerated computing are giving engineers ways to design better semiconductors faster, according to research detailed in a keynote by NVIDIA’s chief scientist.

blogs.nvidia.com

Nvidia R&D Chief on How AI is Improving Chip Design

Getting a glimpse into Nvidia’s R&D has become a regular feature of the spring GTC conference with Bill Dally, chief scientist and senior vice president of research, providing an overview of Nvidia’s R&D organization and a few details on current priorities. This year, Dally focused mostly on AI...

www.hpcwire.com

Chip Manufacturing ‘Ideal Application’ for AI, NVIDIA CEO Says | NVIDIA Blog

Chip manufacturing is an “ideal application” for NVIDIA accelerated and AI computing, NVIDIA founder and CEO Jensen Huang said Tuesday. Detailing how the latest advancements in computing are accelerating “the world’s most important industry,” Huang spoke at ITF World 2023 semiconductor...

blogs.nvidia.com

They're even supposedly getting some usefulness out of a chatbot:

Silicon Volley: Designers Tap Generative AI for a Chip Assist

Semiconductor engineers show how a specialized industry can customize large language models to gain an edge using NVIDIA NeMo.

blogs.nvidia.com

 

[George.a.spix]

Cutting-edge silicon fabrication is not just a commodity service, where you can swap in one manufacturer for another. Even if it were, there's a limited amount of global production capacity available.


Again, I think this point is overemphasized. The main issue is just ensuring adequate supply.

For instance, food can be grown in any country. Does that mean we don't need to worry about growing our own food? No, most countries consider it a matter of national security to retain some domestic food production capacity, even when it must be subsidized to make it economically viable.

Same thing, here.

I know of no case, wear a supply chain issue ever existed when there were multiple suppliers that were geographically independent. Ford specifically almost had to stop building cars as various parts became unavailable sometimes concurrently around the world because of some rare earth or other component. Where it was only because the market ensures multiple suppliers if permitted that there was not a Interruption of production and subsequent tremendous losses that would have put the company out of business. We're the only time the market doesn't work in sustaining supply chain as the British caused the Irish famine. Where their lawmakers had had it explained simply to them what they were doing with controls to protect the powerful in Britain. Plus you can run simulations, trace driven for the last few decades. Were the market always corrected for this. Where if you build duplicates and allow them to compete. You'd have your backup, even though it may not be of your choice in some place foreign. But it would be much less expensive to support two or more crabs even if one was in China, backing up another to make additional Supply available to us. So we could still deliver Advanced Electronics in weapons including weapons of mass destruction. Where one specific in this case was our inability to apply current technology to the F-35 because we couldn't verify that what was built is what was specified. So we couldn't assure multiple suppliers from Brazil to India to Taiwan. Who both had competitive and monetary incentives to back up each other. Same goes for food. The Ukraine could feed the world, and may have to give an events. As well as the Orinoco Flow out of the Amazon as well as the Mississippi Delta.

 

[bit_user]

Ford specifically almost had to stop building cars as various parts became unavailable sometimes concurrently around the world because of some rare earth or other component.

Rare earth metals are another good example of a critical supply chain component which needs government support to avoid China or someone cornering the market and then either raising prices to economically impactful levels or flat-out halting exports.

 

[George³]

Rare earth metals are another good example of a critical supply chain component which needs government support to avoid China or someone cornering the market and then either raising prices to economically impactful levels or flat-out halting exports.

Wait, are you really saying that taxpayer money should be wasted for the third time? The first time because of the sanctions, from which taxpayers lose, including as customers due to inflated prices. Next time direct cash for chips. And now support again, for the development of mines... Why don't they just let the private initiative take care of their business as they learned in business schools? If all or most of it is going to be done with tax money, why not just have the state build, maintain and operate the chip factories and rare metal mines? So the tax money and the profits of the business as a whole will go into the treasury, and not make the turned surplus, private owners and shareholders into billionaires.

 

[George.a.spix]

Rare earth metals are another good example of a critical supply chain component which needs government support to avoid China or someone cornering the market and then either raising prices to economically impactful levels or flat-out halting exports.

Note that very few if any of these examples are due to malicious intent. Most are normal human accidents. A factory is shut down or burns down or a nearby nuclear reactor has a problem from a tsunami. Again if it were not for multiple suppliers that industry segment would have been in trouble. But Supply was sustained because of multiple suppliers. It would be great if across the world China was one of those that could Supply us as we've done the same for them. Just like we did for Russia during their starvation after a bad growing season. Reminds me that the Marshall Plan had a worm in it, it had a worm in it a buy only American clause as part of George Marshall being able to sell it to Congress. Where the manufacturers in the US knew that the Germans once they got back on their feet would blow right by us as they were doing pre war . Both tooling materials and drugs. Which is why their Chancellor eventually threw us out and returned to to their own currency . And of course the only real Economist in the group Stalin said hell no we won't take a dollar. Again we mess with the market at our peril. Not that helping Intel or others with guaranteed purchases isn't worthwhile like we did for SpaceX to support their first few launches and creation of vehicles. Guarantees that could be taken to the bank and money created. Sadly the only one that suffers in the subsidy game is the US taxpayer. If our solution is not competitive on the world market. Interesting how we basically ran a bombing run on our strategic oil Reserve with the treaties we signed and the economic status caused by NYMBY oil PRODUCTION, and rare earth tailings of that we have plenty of. likely limiting the number of training flights for Air Force pilots by a significant percentage. No different than if the Chinese had taken out several commands where Pilots needed to be highly trained where without a second thought fuel was used even if it was likely to be wasted for a small Delta in Improvement of pilot and equipment performance. So we play with the market distribution and specialization to our apparel much more so than protecting someone that should be competitive from someone that is competitive even better if we would provide the tools that addressed our anxiety which are also the tools that would address the anxiety of all of our allies. Again I suspect and hope this is already in the works by those who make the tools and debug processes and materials. And as far as IP I remember the service people for the various photo lithography machines hauling around their laptops to adjust and measure there and others equipment to get the yield that their customers demanded. Where we could have written a contract that said every time we touch your machine it will be in less good shape then when we touched it. You will not be able to benefit by the slight tweak in parameters that way added to our test and adjustment and correction codes.

 

[bit_user]

Wait, are you really saying that taxpayer money should be wasted for the third time?

There are different ways you can support a vital, domestic industry. One option is through tariffs. The public still pays, but the burden is distributed based on how much of the resource you actually use.

The first time because of the sanctions, from which taxpayers lose, including as customers due to inflated prices.

"Sanctions" mean either import or export restrictions. This might hurt industries which either import or export the said commodity, but not taxpayers.

Next time direct cash for chips.

Again, this is to prevent the mother of all chip shortages, if Taiwan's supply goes "offline", which could happen as soon as a few years. I think it's a wise investment.

And now support again, for the development of mines... Why don't they just let the private initiative take care of their business as they learned in business schools?

Do you think there weren't rare earth mines in the USA, before? There were, but they got priced out of the market through state-backed, predatory pricing by China. Once China had cornered the market, they increased prices. That's one of the oldest tricks in the book. I'm sure they teach it at business schools.

If all or most of it is going to be done with tax money, why not just have the state build, maintain and operate

For better or worse, that's just not going to happen. The notion of state-run businesses is a non-starter, in the US. Even the US Postal Service, which operates under Constitutional mandate, has been partially privatized.

So the tax money and the profits of the business as a whole will go into the treasury, and not make the turned surplus, private owners and shareholders into billionaires.

The CHIPS act has several different protections to keep taxpayer money from flowing directly through to shareholders' pockets. We'll see how that works. *If* rare earth metal mining is directly subsidized, that could be a model for doing it. If supported via import tariffs, then the they would have to be carefully managed, to avoid making the sector too profitable, on the backs of domestic manufacturers who need those materials.

BTW, a very popular way to subsidize industries is through tax breaks. There's oodles of hidden government spending which takes this form.