News TSMC Seeks $15 Billion from U.S. Gov't, But Pushes Back on Restrictions

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Let's be realistic, here. That wouldn't happen. It's politically difficult enough to keep the US Postal Service solvent, and they're essential for providing mail service to lots of places for-profit shippers won't touch.
The USPS isn't allowed to make losses. The only reason it is "insolvent" is because congress passed a law requiring that it fully funds retirement for all employees 75 years up-front, which is an entirely fictitious debt intended to make the USPS look bad so republicans bankrolled by UPS, FedEx, etc. can use that to say the government should scrap it, which is how DeJoy, FedEx shareholder, ended up being postmaster and doing everything within his power to break the USPS.
 
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bit_user

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The USPS isn't allowed to make losses. The only reason it is "insolvent" is because congress passed a law requiring that it fully funds retirement for all employees 75 years up-front, which is an entirely fictitious debt intended to make the USPS look bad
Right. See, the only thing that's politically feasible is subsidies for private industry. If a state-owned fab could ever be gotten off the ground, it'd turn into just another a political football.

Even in countries with governments that work better than ours, we don't see good examples of government-run fabs. Our only feasible option is subsidies. Just be glad they have strings-attached like profit-sharing and the oversight mechanisms mentioned in the article, that keep them from going directly into the pockets of investors.
 
Nothing about this statement is true. Even ignoring how vital cloud computing and smartphones are to modern society, tons of industrial equipment has advanced semiconductors in it. As does a vast array of products, from bluetooth headphones to security cameras. Not only that, but we also saw how hard the chip shortage hit the automotive industry. And so many of us that attend school or work partially or fully remote cannot do so via fridge-level technology. Forget about online gaming or video streaming.
It's been a few years since you saw a fridge hasn't it?
And even then, all the things you list do not have to be on the cuttingest of edge node, during covid the older chips were just as much of a bottleneck then the cutting edge stuff was.
fL9qcJC.jpg
 

bit_user

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It's been a few years since you saw a fridge hasn't it?
Fridges are a terrible example, not least because their actual needs are so basic.

And even then, all the things you list do not have to be on the cuttingest of edge node,
That's somewhat beside the point. I didn't say the chip shortage would exactly mirror what happened in 2021-2022. It was just a taste.

Newer devices use newer chips, and they're made on newer nodes. A lot of the chips in modern cars cannot be made on an older node, because they do things like lane-keeping that are very compute-intensive.

What worries me most are things like what happens if cloud operators suddenly cannot even replace failing hardware, not to mention adding capacity? And what if you basically can't buy new computers, cellphones, or peripherals, due to all of them having some dependency on another on Taiwan. I worry not so much for consumers, but when it starts to affect the ability of businesses and governments to function. Even farm equipment has advanced semiconductors, these days.
 
What worries me most are things like what happens if cloud operators suddenly cannot even replace failing hardware, not to mention adding capacity? And what if you basically can't buy new computers, cellphones, or peripherals, due to all of them having some dependency on another on Taiwan. I worry not so much for consumers, but when it starts to affect the ability of businesses and governments to function. Even farm equipment has advanced semiconductors, these days.
So what exactly would be the problem?!
If they use x86 that is made by TSMC so AMD basically then they can still use x86 even if they have to switch to intel and even if they have to use more power and pay more for cooling the gov can subsidies them the difference.
If they use arm or whatever GPU from nvidia or what have you they can still use ARM or whatever GPU build by one of the chips companies.
Things don't have to be made by tsmc or be on the latest node to work.

Let alone that even if TSMC gets to produce in the USA or Europe it doesn't mean that any of the taiwanese or asian IP automatically comes with it.
 
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Still, he’s got a good point. You should always be very afraid when someone says “hi I am from the government and I’m here to help” lol I think Ronald Reagan said that.
 

purpleduggy

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Let's be realistic, here. That wouldn't happen. It's politically difficult enough to keep the US Postal Service solvent, and they're essential for providing mail service to lots of places for-profit shippers won't touch.

Not only would you need to scratch up the funding to bootstrap such a venture, but there's the whole technological deficit you'd have to overcome, in order to develop a remotely modern node. Relying on a national fab would basically be the quickest way to set us back about 15 years or more, technologically.


If you remember how hard it was to get chips from 2021 - 2022, that same sort of supply shortage would occur on an even larger scale. That would be very disruptive to the world economy. The funding programs in both the US and Europe are both aimed at building up some reserve capacity, in case of just such an event.


If they have fabs on US and European soil, and if we can somehow encourage them to make those fabs sufficiently independent of the mothership, then they can be part of the solution. Even now, it's not as if Taiwan is the ideal place to manufacture chips - last year, they faced historic droughts that threatened to limit production, since chip manufacturing uses lots of water.


That's how private/public partnerships work. We chip in a little public money to top up an industry on the brink, and suddenly it becomes profitable enough to stem the tide of manufacturers shifting operations overseas.


It's a lot more expensive to build up a new industry than to save an existing one. That's why it's important that we stem the bleeding and reverse the losses in semiconductor manufacturing.

I've said before that this isn't going to be a "one and done" scenario. CHIPS is a down payment that will need to be followed with some additional funding, as we near the end of its window. We provide agricultural subsidies, because we all understand how important it is to protect our food supply. Semiconductors are becoming almost as vital for our other industries and overall economy.


Nothing about this statement is true. Even ignoring how vital cloud computing and smartphones are to modern society, tons of industrial equipment has advanced semiconductors in it. As does a vast array of products, from bluetooth headphones to security cameras. Not only that, but we also saw how hard the chip shortage hit the automotive industry. And so many of us that attend school or work partially or fully remote cannot do so via fridge-level technology. Forget about online gaming or video streaming.
its pretty easy to find the budget. just put the semiconductor $trillions investment under military budget. it will pass then.
 

purpleduggy

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So what exactly would be the problem?!
If they use x86 that is made by TSMC so AMD basically then they can still use x86 even if they have to switch to intel and even if they have to use more power and pay more for cooling the gov can subsidies them the difference.
If they use arm or whatever GPU from nvidia or what have you they can still use ARM or whatever GPU build by one of the chips companies.
Things don't have to be made by tsmc or be on the latest node to work.

Let alone that even if TSMC gets to produce in the USA or Europe it doesn't mean that any of the taiwanese or asian IP automatically comes with it.
there is no taiwanese or asian IP. its all ASML IP. All the best lithography machines are all made by ASML. ASML is Dutch.
 

bit_user

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So what exactly would be the problem?!
If they use x86 that is made by TSMC so AMD basically then they can still use x86 even if they have to switch to intel and even if they have to use more power and pay more for cooling the gov can subsidies them the difference.
You're focusing on just the CPU. Even leaving that aside, there are lots of other components, as well as the system itself, and many of these parts and processes involve Taiwan.

Also, Intel doesn't make alternatives that work for every scenario. There are lots of embedded and specialized chips that are non-x86. And porting a chip from one fab to another is usually a rather involved, expensive, and time-consuming process. If TSMC went offline tomorrow, it would be fairly cataclysmic for the broader industry.

Things don't have to be made by tsmc or be on the latest node to work.
As perhaps China is figuring out, technology is something of an addiction. Once you transition your services, apps, workflows, and data to newer technology, you can't go back. Everything grows to consume available CPU cycles, memory, and storage. Moving backwards to an older node be hugely expensive, because you'd need a lot more of everything and it'd use a lot more power.

even if TSMC gets to produce in the USA or Europe it doesn't mean that any of the taiwanese or asian IP automatically comes with it.
Exactly. That's got to be a point of contention - their Fabs in the US need to be able to operate independently enough that if their connection to HQ goes down, they won't go dark.
 

bit_user

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Still, he’s got a good point. You should always be very afraid when someone says “hi I am from the government and I’m here to help” lol I think Ronald Reagan said that.
There's always some tension, in private/public arrangements. That doesn't mean we shouldn't do them. These concerns and issues have been dealt with many times, before. The solution space is usually larger than it first seems.

Sometimes, hard things are worth doing. It's hardly patriotic to run away from problems just because they complicated.

its pretty easy to find the budget. just put the semiconductor $trillions investment under military budget. it will pass then.
Last I checked, the US' defense spending is about $800B, annually. I know the CHIPS bill is a multi-year thing, but perhaps that puts it into some perspective.

And no, just slapping the label of "defense" on something doesn't make it automatically sail through Congress.
 

bit_user

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there is no taiwanese or asian IP. its all ASML IP.
Not even remotely true. What ASML builds are like the ovens used in a high-end restaurant. The restaurant's chef is the one who designs the recipes, picks the ingredients, sequences everything, figures out cooking times, etc.

Another analogy might be CNC machines. Just having the best ones doesn't mean you don't need highly-competent design engineers to make airplane engine parts with them.

If you just read details about Intel vs. TSMC's process nodes, you can clearly see this.

All the best lithography machines are all made by ASML. ASML is Dutch.
Like a lot of big, multi-national companies, they have offices and engineering in several countries. One of their groups doing some of the cutting-edge research is based in California, for instance.

Also, they have suppliers. Like Zeiss for some of the optics.
 

bit_user

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Sounds to that if companies like tsmc don’t want to play ball start investing in American company such as Intel. Things in that side of the world seem a bit volatile to be investing too much money.
For the US to have a strong semiconductor industry, it needs an entire ecosystem of both fabs and their suppliers. That's why we want multiple new fabs.

Also, considering Intel vs. TSMC, we saw how Intel basically stalled out on 14 nm for about 5 years. That could happen again (not necessarily Intel - maybe with TSMC or Samsung, next time). So, you don't want all your eggs in one basket. I think it's also better for the domestic supplier ecosystem, if they have a range of customers instead of just one or two.

We really need a mindset shift, though. We should be assuming Taiwan will go offline. All signs are pointing that direction. It'll be a few years, but we need to prepare now.
 
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purpleduggy

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Not even remotely true. What ASML builds are like the ovens used in a high-end restaurant. The restaurant's chef is the one who designs the recipes, picks the ingredients, sequences everything, figures out cooking times, etc.

Another analogy might be CNC machines. Just having the best ones doesn't mean you don't need highly-competent design engineers to make airplane engine parts with them.

If you just read details about Intel vs. TSMC's process nodes, you can clearly see this.


Like a lot of big, multi-national companies, they have offices and engineering in several countries. One of their groups doing some of the cutting-edge research is based in California, for instance.

Also, they have suppliers. Like Zeiss for some of the optics.
lol 5nm lithography machines being ovens in a restaurant. lets see tsmc or ANY other fab achieve 5nm without ASML. They can't. Only ASML lithography machines have the cutting edge tech. it has to do with ultra miniaturization precision which noone other than ASML can manufacture. All tsmc is, are push button operators for machines built, maintained and configured for each job by Dutch ASML engineers. Look into how many full time ASML engineers work at tsmc.
 

bit_user

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lol 5nm lithography machines being ovens in a restaurant. lets see tsmc or ANY other fab achieve 5nm without ASML.
It's just an analogy. The point is that TSMC designs their process node, not ASML. Just like a chef designs recipes, not the oven maker.

It sounds like you need to read more about semiconductor fabrication.
 

purpleduggy

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It's just an analogy. The point is that TSMC designs their process node, not ASML. Just like a chef designs recipes, not the oven maker.

It sounds like you need to read more about semiconductor fabrication.
tsmc is just a pushbutton operator for asml machines. the entire tsmc lithography fab runs on asml machines.
the only competitor are some japanese lithography machines but they're still on larger nodes. only asml has 3nm and 5nm.

"It sounds like you need to read more about semiconductor fabrication."
lol imagine taking multibilliondollar companies personally
my point is that the cutting edge of tech is fully within NATO. pretending that 3nm manufacturing exists outside of NATO countries in any form but by proxy is delusional. tsmc will move fully to the US eventually.
 

bit_user

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tsmc is just a pushbutton operator for asml machines.
There's nothing "push-button" about it. TSMC, Samsung, and Intel are the ones actually designing their nodes - not ASML. All the ASML machines do is put down the layers & rinses, expose the photomasks, control temperatures, etc. in whatever order you program them to. But ASML doesn't tell their customers what materials to use, how many layers, times & temperatures, how to design their cells, etc.

Why do you think the R&D budgets of these semiconductor fabs stretches into the $Billions? Why do you think a gulf exists between the different fabs? Samsung just admitted they're 5 years behind TSMC. If it were as you claim, they'd just have to buy the latest kit and it's "job done"!

@jkflipflop98 , can I get an "Amen"?

my point is that the cutting edge of tech is fully within NATO.
Last I checked, neither Taiwan nor South Korea were in NATO.
 

purpleduggy

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There's nothing "push-button" about it. TSMC, Samsung, and Intel are the ones actually designing their nodes - not ASML. All the ASML machines do is put down the layers & rinses, expose the photomasks, control temperatures, etc. in whatever order you program them to. But ASML doesn't tell their customers what materials to use, how many layers, times & temperatures, how to design their cells, etc.

Why do you think the R&D budgets of these semiconductor fabs stretches into the $Billions? Why do you think a gulf exists between the different fabs? Samsung just admitted they're 5 years behind TSMC. If it were as you claim, they'd just have to buy the latest kit and it's "job done"!

@jkflipflop98 , can I get an "Amen"?


Last I checked, neither Taiwan nor South Korea were in NATO.
asml's main pushbutton operator is tsmc. yes they have some of the best engineers worldwide. but make no mistake that this is fully nato and us aligned. taiwan exists because of nato. south korea is in a similar boat. might as well label them nato. again pretending 3nm exists outside of nato is delusional. pushbutton operators are not capable of producing technology without US and EU companies. if they were they would have created new companies that would replace US intel/amd/nvidia dominance. this has not happened yet. the only reason why tsmc exists is at the mercy and pleasure of the US as part of the shift in electronics manufacturing initiated by the US in the 90s letting china join the wto. all of it could have stayed in the US. the shift in manufacturing to other countries is not a result of them being more advanced, but as a cost saving measure to support the US supported and funded manufacturing hub around japan/hongkong/korea. this cost saving was the primary motive, don't forget it. if manufacturing remained in the US and Europe, the cost for consumer products would have been insane. there is a reason why import taxes are waived from taiwan/china and shipping fees are incredibly reduced. tsmc is in the prime location because the taiwanese computer manufacturing industry specifically motherboards and GPUs by ASUS/MSI/Gigabyte/Asrock/Sapphire etc. Taiwan is the best place in the world to get advanced multilayer pcbs made. And the US made this industry happen. But with automation and miniaturization and rising transport costs, much of this industry is going to return to the US and EU like it was before the 90s. tsmc already has a bunch of fabs in the US.
 

bit_user

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asml's main pushbutton operator is tsmc. yes they have some of the best engineers worldwide. but make no mistake that this is fully nato and us aligned. taiwan exists because of nato.
Okay, so we're not really talking about semiconductor manufacturing, but I guess some kind of jingoistic geopolitical fantasies? I'm out.

Again, you could stand to learn a lot about semiconductor manufacturing, if you were truly interested in the subject.
 
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