News U.S. Cannot Halt China's Semiconductor Advance to 5nm: Ex TSMC VP

[Admin]

SMIC is expected to proceed to 5nm with DUV multi-patterning, says former TSMC executive.

U.S. Cannot Halt China's Semiconductor Advance to 5nm: Ex TSMC VP : Read more

 

[EyadSoftwareEngineer]

I have said this many times already, China already achived it breakthrough in making micro chips and by the way they have thier own way to manufacture micro chips without the need for ASML machines, we are now entering the chinese mass production phase soon which will send a healthy shock wave to the exagrated micro chips prices that comes from western suppliers

 

[COLGeek]

I have said this many times already, China already achived it breakthrough in making micro chips and by the way they have thier own way to manufacture micro chips without the need for ASML machines, we are now entering the chinese mass production phase soon which will send a healthy shock wave to the exagrated micro chips prices that comes from western suppliers

If so, then this will stoke competition and innovation while lowering prices for consumers. Time will tell.

 

[George³]

More competition, more good for consumers.

 

[hotaru251]

China already achived it breakthrough in making micro chips and by the way they have thier own way to manufacture micro chips without the need for ASML machines, we are now entering the chinese mass production phase soon which will send a healthy shock wave to the exagrated micro chips prices that comes from western suppliers

yes, but no.

They are going to limited on how small/advanced they can go as they havent made alternatives to all nodes requirements.

This will slow down their advancement but its not something they "can't" figure out in time.

tbh the upside of the political issues (mods this isnt political just the word being used) is it finally did force em to focus on their stuff which is beneficial long term.

 

[ohio_buckeye]

Although if they do get enough production going that could eventually hurt Intel and amd if they don’t adjust and get to where their chips are the dominant ones around the world.

 

[atomicWAR]

Interesting seeing China advance so quickly despite the sanctions. Clearly the opposite effect has occurred here than intended. Competition is not a bad thing though so hopefully this will be in the best interest of consumers and the industry as a whole. Time will tell...

 

[Kamen Rider Blade]

Although if they do get enough production going that could eventually hurt Intel and amd if they don’t adjust and get to where their chips are the dominant ones around the world.

Tariffs and/or blocking of chip sales by collective blocking by all Western Allied countries by adversarial nations would limit their market reach.

 

[derekullo]

Tariffs and/or blocking of chip sales by collective blocking by all Western Allied countries by adversarial nations would limit their market reach.

Western markets are not their only customers ...

 

[Kamen Rider Blade]

Western markets are not their only customers ...

I know, but there are only so many markets out there, making Western Markets out of reach is realistically what is only possible in a practical sense.

 

[bit_user]

one can ask whether the U.S. government's curbs against China's semiconductor sector work.

Depends on the goal. If it's to halt progress, then no - at least not as far as 5 nm-class. If it's to limit fab throughput and slow progress, then obviously yes. As the article said, multi-patterning takes longer and hurts yield, both of which serve to limit fab throughput on these advanced nodes. If you consider they cannot compensate by ordering any more lithography machines, then it's a big deal because it should seriously limit their ability to make the kinds of huge chips needed for AI processors and server CPUs.

Really, all you have to do is listen to what China, itself, is saying. If the sanctions were truly ineffective, then China wouldn't be complaining or retaliating. I'm sure they don't like complaining, since it's basically admitting they're in a position of weakness which they really hate to do.

"What the US really should do is to focus on maintaining its chip design leadership instead of trying to limit China's progress ... " former-TSMC R&D VP Lin is reported to have said.

He either misunderstands or is misrepresenting the reason for the sanctions.

 

[bit_user]

More competition, more good for consumers.

Only if it's fair competition. If it's unfair, like when China entered the market for rare earth minerals, then it will drive existing suppliers & supply chains out of business. The end result is actually fewer suppliers and less competition.

 

[bit_user]

Interesting seeing China advance so quickly despite the sanctions.

They bought the machines prior to when the sanctions kicked in. This is not a story of the sanctions being ineffectual, but rather one where they merely have a somewhat delayed effect that's yet to be fully observed.

 

[ThomasKinsley]

Although if they do get enough production going that could eventually hurt Intel and amd if they don’t adjust and get to where their chips are the dominant ones around the world.

You are right. The chips don't even have to be very competitive. If China manages to convince its domestic market to switch to SMIC-fabricated processors, then that alone will impact AMD's and Intel's sales (reportedly 22% of AMD's external sales and 27% of Intel's in 2022).

 

[The Historical Fidelity]

I’m still waiting on proof that SMIC actually has an equivalent 7nm process to TSMC or Intel’s and it’s defect rate before believing SMIC can produce a competitive 5nm chip with DUV that doesn’t cost exorbitant amounts due to lack of EUV layers and having to use multi-patterning heavily.

 

[RedBear87]

More competition, more good for consumers.

It's not so simple, these chips are being produced in violation of US sanctions, so they're unlikely to ever get commercialised in the US and the rest of the American Empire, i.e. EU, UK, Australia, etc. The Mate 60 for instance is being commercialised only in China, even though Huawei is still trying to sell some products in places like Europe. Going forward the actual risk is a full technological decoupling, which is not going to be a joyful event for American companies, like Nvidia and Qualcomm, that make a significant part of their profits in China.

Really, all you have to do is listen to what China, itself, is saying. If the sanctions were truly ineffective, then China wouldn't be complaining or retaliating. I'm sure they don't like complaining, since it's basically admitting they're in a position of weakness which they really hate to do.

Being forced to reinvent to wheel, so to speak, isn't really nice. But on the other hand it gives a powerful narrative of Us vs Them, that is useful for the government. So I think that they don't really mind complaining about those evil Americans that are trying to stop China's "rejuvenation". It actually makes for good news, especially when SMIC and YMTC can give headlines about their efforts paying off. But Americans haven't ever really understood the limitations and constraints of sanctions, the experiences with Iran and North Korea (and more recently, Russia) speak volumes about it.

 

[bit_user]

Going forward the actual risk is a full technological decoupling, which is not going to be a joyful event for American companies, like Nvidia and Qualcomm, that make a significant part of their profits in China.

In the, the short-term loss of access to the Chinese market will indeed be painful. In fact, it is already being felt by the semiconductor design & manufacturing industry.

In the long term, the pain from decoupling will be having duplicate sets of technology standards and network protocols. That's what I'm more concerned about. There's an interesting side story about how China has been seeking to influence & even control some of the existing standards bodies. Another option is that they just go their own way, as in this example:

China Develops Domestic Chiplet Interface

To take on UCIe, developed by AMD, Arm, Intel and TSMC.

www.tomshardware.com

 

[The Hardcard]

I have said this many times already, China already achived it breakthrough in making micro chips and by the way they have thier own way to manufacture micro chips without the need for ASML machines, we are now entering the chinese mass production phase soon which will send a healthy shock wave to the exagrated micro chips prices that comes from western suppliers

there are many aspects to chipmaking beyond patterning wafers, and a significant portion of it can’t be done in China. As well, there are many facets that can be done in China, but require non-Chinese workers to do it.

There are measures the US can take to impede Chinese progress however, they run the risk of inflicting heavy pain on themselves as pulling all the levers may make China more aggressive about withholding, rare earth elements, and other items needed by Western technology.

Among other things, China can make life very difficult for EV manufacture executives.

 

[pug_s]

Only if it's fair competition. If it's unfair, like when China entered the market for rare earth minerals, then it will drive existing suppliers & supply chains out of business. The end result is actually fewer suppliers and less competition.

China simply does Rare Earth better and cheaper thus driving out the competition. I am sure if the US or any other countries can revive their Rare earth business at a loss, but they don't want to.

Sanctioned companies like Huawei and SMIC on the other hand has no access to the latest technologies and the Chinese government is subsitizing them to succeed. Companies like SMIC wouldn't be in business like this because of the sanctions and in a few years they won't rely on subsitizes by the Chinese government.

 

[bit_user]

China simply does Rare Earth better and cheaper thus driving out the competition. I am sure if the US or any other countries can revive their Rare earth business at a loss, but they don't want to.

They had less mining regulation and less enforcement of it. The bigger issue is that they routinely practice "dumping", as evidenced in the many WTO cases brought and won by other countries.

WTO | Anti-dumping news archive

WTO | Anti-dumping news archive

www.wto.org

 

[deesider]

It's not so simple, these chips are being produced in violation of US sanctions,

They are not.

 

[thisisaname]

Are sanctions ever going to work while thousands of Chinese are being taught how to do these things in western universities?

 

[TCA_ChinChin]

there are many aspects to chipmaking beyond patterning wafers, and a significant portion of it can’t be done in China.

Isn't the big point of interest China's ability to develop the aspects of the significant portions that can't be done in China? It does seem the main focus on what China can't easily do is patterning wafers (at least as well as other countries) and that's the reason the US has gone after that specific element(s) (there are a couple other elements like the EDA and design software) to sanction as opposed to wider measures?

I was under the impression that the current sanctions have some people worried that this just accelerates China's drive to make sure that the portion that can't be done in China ATM becomes doable relatively quickly. Which articles like this and several other recent ones only serve to confirm their suspicions.

 

[bit_user]

Are sanctions ever going to work while thousands of Chinese are being taught how to do these things in western universities?

There's only a handful of companies that dominate the semiconductor production chain, including building the lithography equipment, because it's very hard and has huge technological barriers to entry. If fresh university graduates could do it, you'd think there would be a lot more competition in that sector.

 

[RedBear87]

They are not.

How so? It's unlikely that they might have been produced without (some) US technology and, technically speaking, those companies were not allowed to use those technologies to produce 7nm semiconductors. Of course no ones give two expletives about US sanctions in China, but it does matter when it comes to commercialising the product elsewhere. Going forward SMIC's 7nm, if they can keep up with production, might be found in Russia and other countries that are not very friendly with the US, but it's decidedly unlikely to appear elsewhere.