Upcoming Vega vs GTX 10/20 (Volta) upgrade 2017

[varis]

I'm in the market for a new GPU within approximately the next 10 hours to 6 months. Which is the most rational strategy?

GTX 1070 level performance is attractive; pricing is not.
Vega is supposedly just a few weeks off, expected to beat GTX 1080 performance level.

Available strategies to the player:

1) Acquire second hand GTX 970 or similar hardware, delaying the more costly upgrade by 12 months or more.
2) Gamble on NVidia dropping prices in panic so you can catch a nice GTX 1070 falling off the shelf.
3) Wish for a low-tier Vega card to be introduced within 2017, beating GTX 1070 offering but targeting a lower price range.

Which ones are viable? For 3), what do you think will be the minimal waiting period, from first Vega release until low-tier cards profilerate on the market and there is a good supply of options available? Mind you I am looking for the most silent cards on the mainstream market. However it seems that cooling receives attention from all the leading manufacturers and features like fans going passive on light load and fan adjusting applications are becoming commonplace.

Which other releases can we expect within the next 12 months around this range of cards? I take GTX 10 is about 8 months old by now, so we would expect the GTX 11 successor to debut in approximately 10 months, giving us another new technology wave.

My system information can be found at http://www.tomshardware.co.uk/answers/id-3413492/psu-good-transfer.html

 

[tanckattb]

Vega GPUs are going to come out, with the lowest tier performing slightly better than the GTX 1070. I do think it's going to be priced lower than the 1070, cus that's what the CEO is all about. She wants to blow the market away.

GTX 20 series (yes 20 series not 11 series I believe) is going to be Volta, and I expect you would only have to wait a few months for that.

Very soon, the whole pc gaming market will be shaken up with the release of both Vega and Volta. If you can wait 6 months, (I believe you only have to wait maybe around 4 months?) then there will be a lot of price wars and the only people who benefit will be the consumers.


As for now, you could get a 1070, but it will soon be replaced by better cards with updated architecture. It wouldn't be a good buy, and I expect it won't drop prices. As for the 970, you could , but only if you get it cheap. There is no reason why you should get one new, since so many people are selling it for cheap. (Maybe 100-150USD?)

My suggestion is wait for BOTH vega and Volta, both AMD and nvidia will drop their prices quite a bit.

 

[varis]

Very soon, the whole pc gaming market --- If you can wait 6 months, (I believe you only have to wait maybe around 4 months?) then there will be a lot of price wars and the only people who benefit will be the consumers.

I think we've heard this many times before 😉 😀

But very good reply, thanks ! Soon arriving Volta changes everything I guess. GTX 1070 prices are only down by 10-20% from release and indeed I take it's really a given that 1) Volta will significantly outperform the previous generation and 2) AMD will try and price aggressively to match the competition (and will still be able to match 1070 models with their upgraded new chips).

It's really an old pattern we've seen before. It's not worth waiting for discounts, because they are only modest. You are better off waiting for new technology because that brings performance improvements at no hike in the price tag. People who buy late in the life cycle are pretty much shafted, which doesn't make sense in the view of economic theory but I guess PC buyers are not really fully rational economic agents.

It's very lucky I have the option (I hope, not 100% given the old GPU is functional) to upgrade at my convenience this time, with the rest of the system it was difficult to wait and there are windows of opportunity for building. Option 1) I think is not interesting now, when the next chips are really around the corner and will give my box a much better suited performance level - it is really beefy this time and I don't think requires ANY upgrades to the core for the next 5 years or more if we assume successful overclocking. You are right about GTX 970 pricing - I saw one on offer for quite a cheap price but then again, since it underperforms 1060 slightly it's soon going to be quite outdated, even if it would bring my GPU up some 7 rungs on the hierarchy charts from the current level. 2) is unlikely because NVidia can respond with an upgraded chipset that outperforms AMD's offering and this will allow them to charge a premium price for their products which I think is pretty much always a desirable option for a company if only it's possible.

3) of course has uncertainty but it would be very reasonable, I think, to expect at least one of the companies to bring new competitive alternatives to the market in the space around 1060 and 1070. The GTX 1070 chipset is already getting old and it seems that nowadays there is indeed progress in graphics cards, in terms of performance and TDP, for each generation.

By the way I do not think a huge price war is a given. Unless you have proof from the companies' past behaviour that it is expected to happen? It is a 2 company oligopoly so there is not that much competition, also it seems the two companies are nowadays targeting different market segments. I've understood some of the oligopoly theories/models in microeconomics would generally predict price wars but in practice there are many (non-cartel) examples of price wars not happening. In oligopolies it's pretty much a given that competitors will react to (pricing) moves of their rivals, and I guess in a 2 way oligopoly either company can cause predictable responses from the other company. I do not think they would choose a price war as that predictable response - they would lose profits that way I think NVidia in particular is pretty secure as the technology leader and they are making greasy profits in the high end market - sorta being the Apple of GPUs, they could even let AMD capture more of the bulk market for now. There is still a possibility that AMD will try to aggressively regain more market share towards the high end.

 

[varis]

This article https://www.pcgamesn.com/nvidia/nvidia-volta-gpu-specifications discusses that Volta might release only in 2018 and be priced higher than NVidia's current high end offerings.

Also they cover speculation of a new release in 2017Q3. I think a good question here is that are GV100 (Volta) and GTX 20 the same chip series? I would find it plausible that GTX 20 indeed releases in 4-6 months but the next generation after that with Volta will come only in (early?) 2018. There is discussion that Volta has specific targets in professional segments so it's possible that consumer cards will only come later on.

Anyway there's definite technological improvement around the next couple of corners with GDDR6, increased chip density and so on.

 

[varis]

Gaming Vega won't be coming just yet: http://www.trustedreviews.com/news/amd-vega-specs-performance-release-date-technology-explained ... not to mention lower-end cards to go against GTX 1070 (or even 1060?).

If NVidia keeps all schedules Vega will have to battle [strike]Volta[/strike] GTX 20 in this segment.