News US sanctions transform China into legacy chip production juggernaut — production jumped 40% in Q1 2024

[NinoPino]

China doesn’t do innovation. They just do IP theft.

This is the same old nonsense meme.
Every country has "stolen" some invention one time or another.
If we give away all our know-how for free to China, who is to blame ?

 

[zsydeepsky]

omemGiven this idea I hope there is talk in Japan about limiting China's access to the new Canon chip printing tools. These would be perfect for the legacy chips China is pumping out and could cause an even bigger splash....if they work that is.

Seems like litho tech is going to be the big issue here. Will China come out soon with their own or are they still quite a ways away from it? Seems like trying to hack ASML and hire away experts would be very high on their list right now.

hack? no need.

before sanctions happened, China already had its own 90nm litho tech. however, back then, no commercial companies wanted it, after all, why use some unknown product when you can easily buy an industry-verified one from ASML or Canon?

then sanctions happened, and it changed everything. Many Chinese companies became eager to try that 90nm litho tech. even if they can't rely on it, they still want to see if it can be a backup plan.

the result is this news from last year:

Chinese company claims chipmaking tool breakthrough — announces 28nm-capable litho tool​

https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-i...reakthrough-announces-28nm-capable-litho-tool

SMEE, the same company that had the 90nm litho tech before. with such a dramatic surplus of customer feedback and money, they gained all the resources they ever needed to level up.

so, at the moment, China has already achieved its complete supply chain for all legacy nodes. therefore you can see why the US sanction doesn't include legacy nodes: there's nothing you can sanction China on legacy node tech. if the sanction is to avoid China's access to legacy node tech, then that chance has already been missed.

the next question is...if sanctions have so effectively made 90nm - 28nm litho tech upgrade happen in just 4 years, how much time does China need to materialize the 3nm litho tech?

 

[TJ Hooker]

Biggest thing from my viewpoint, if I’m in government in the USA, sanctions I get why. But the other side of that, the USA needs to be pushing hard to get things from chips to any raw material you need being produced in the USA. At least some level. If there would ever be a conflict, you have to be able to produce what is needed at home otherwise you are likely to lose. Case in point, Germany in ww2. They had tanks and some equipment arguably superior to the allies. However the USA had such a manufacturing base that they could out produce the other side to the point that for every tank the Germans could field, you maybe had 3 from the allies and eventually overwhelmed them with sheer numbers.

But also you need capacity for everything from tech to manufacturing and food supplies otherwise you set yourself up failure. I know I’ve told my wife I’ve played enough strategy video games lol.

Not to say anything against anyone in particular, but it just seems in general this is a prudent idea and what I’d want to push for if I were someone in authority.

Err, have you not heard of the CHIPS act? Investing in semiconductor manufacturing and supply chain has been a big focus of the US federal government for at least a couple years.

 

[ohio_buckeye]

Err, have you not heard of the CHIPS act? Investing in semiconductor manufacturing and supply chain has been a big focus of the US federal government for at least a couple years.

Good point but seems like things keep delayed every time you turn around.

 

[ivan_vy]

Err, have you not heard of the CHIPS act? Investing in semiconductor manufacturing and supply chain has been a big focus of the US federal government for at least a couple years.

and China preventing (or making harder) to get gallium and germanium,
this 'Tit for that' just hurt consumers, wish both sides come back to senses instead of fighting proxy wars for the investors in tech industry, see how every time Nvidia complies with every new regulations and keep making huge business with China? and now mid end GPU costs as much as high end two generations prior, and is not just against gamers, designers, CAD engineers, architects, content creators, whoever got gutted.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/04/chi...hipmaking-metals-in-tech-war-with-the-us.html

 

[Dicco]

Important for the US to stay well ahead of China in chips which power AI/advanced weaponry. If China achieves parity the US will have a significantly reduced military advantage. Although SpaceX has ensured they remain light years ahead in the space race.
I read somewhere that the US makes a critical component for the lasers in the high end Dutch lithographic machines. So they were able to leverage that to stop them exporting to China.
I’m surprised the US doesn’t lead in bleeding edge chip fabrication overall. I think they will rectify that situation.

 

[plateletsck]

Sanction works great on Cuba, but not much on China. Strict ban on defence tech and arm sales sunce 1990 have costed western military industry hundreds of billions in revenues and yet today China PLA is labeled the most sophisticated adversary. While China was excluded from European Galileo GPS, its own Beidou GPS became operational earlier than Galileo. International space station is a similar story. Why still bet on a proven dead end and not coming up with something truely innovative to contain China?

 

[lordmogul]

Not the best example.😀

possibly the worst example.
32 nm (Sandy Bridge) vs 90 nm (Prescott) was a big step.
But so was 45 nm (Penryn) vs Prescott.
And 65 nm (Core) vs Prescott.
Yes, one node later improved performance by upwards of 60%

 

[Sangheili112]

Not only that but what a move. One can imagine a lot of your electronics in everything from cars to mp3 players likely are using these legacy chips. So basically allowing a monopoly to be created it sounds like.

Sorta? Although 19,000 chinese chip companies went bankrupt over past few years But other reasons
https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-i...ent-the-country-from-getting-chipmaking-tools

 

[daris98]

possibly the worst example.
32 nm (Sandy Bridge) vs 90 nm (Prescott) was a big step.
But so was 45 nm (Penryn) vs Prescott.
And 65 nm (Core) vs Prescott.
Yes, one node later improved performance by upwards of 60%

Can you and @NinoPino tell me what does "not the best" and "worst" example mean?

"Not the best example" means I had exaggerated my statement by supporting it with an unrepresentative comparison. "The worst example" means that me bringing that very comparison was the most wrong thing out of the possible permutations. Please explain.

I don't get your point and have no idea about what agenda you are talking about, my posture is that sanctions are backfiring because economy was misunderstood by lawmakers, China can access Africa, Asia an LatAm markets, look at phone sales and is obvious cutting edge is not the sales leader in volume.
There is no need to take part in the 'with us or against us' narrative, that posture negates achievements and mistakes of both sides.

US sanctioning critical tech to China is just like any geopolitical decision - a mere representation of the collective intuition of the ones holding power. If AI's revenue continues to at least 18% CAGR in the next 12 years, the AI industry will generate about the same money the entire consumer electronics industry in a year by that time. In the last 3 years the AI industry has an almost triple digit CAGR, so I hope you don't accuse me of getting that 18% number out of thin air.

There's for and against that narration. I can discuss that. But that's just one. Samsung only makes about single-digit bio. USD a year by selling those millions of budget phones, while Apple is swimming with tens of billions of dollars for just one model of iPhone. Nvidia is now making 4 times more money in high margin products (which doesn't include the 4090 which everyone seems to complain about) and this number is expected to increase to 6 this year.

I mentioned just three narrations, there are more.

Posture or agenda is just diction; even if you adamantly claim its different, I'm not interested in any. Then again, I hope I am doing service to the community by letting you know that political "banter" isn't supposed to be here.