MU_Engineer :
Because the only way the government gets money is by taking out of the hands of people via taxes, by borrowing it, or by simply printing more money. None of those are good:
1. Taxes dampen economic growth because almost all of the people that actually create jobs are people who own and run businesses. If you look at the "stimulus" packages, they essentially take money from people in taxes, take out some of it in overhead and administration, and then give it back to the businesses in the form of bailouts or government contracts. Assuming that the government contracts are directed to activities that actually result in increased economic output (such as building roads- not by giving to artists to make
statues of fornicating dogs to put on an overpass), the administrative overhead that the government takes to manage the money represents lost economic output. A government paper pusher doesn't really add much to the economic output of the country since they aren't producing any sort of salable good or service.
2. Borrowing money to stimulate the economy isn't always a good idea as borrowed money accumulates interest that has to be paid back. The only way you end up ahead is if you get a rate of return on the borrowed money that exceeds the interest rate. I would say that is not the case since the government said they spent
$533,000 per job created. Basically put, those employees would have to be making somewhere into the six figure range more per year for their entire career than they otherwise would have to pay back in taxes the $533,000 plus interest that the government invested in their job.
3. Printing money isn't a great idea, either. That leads to inflation that makes your citizens' savings and the debt that debtors hold less valuable than it was before. The already-ailing banks aren't going to do very well when the return on their
good loans suddenly drops through the floor too.
Unchecked economic growth leads to uncontrolled inflation. What should be happening is the government taxing during periods of growth, and putting money into the system during periods of decline (basic economics, though no one seems to follow it). I never said that all the stimulus money was being well spent (it isn’t). I agree entirely that taxpayer money shouldn’t be used to make sculptures of fornicating dogs (which probably shouldn’t be placed in public locations), but not all the money is being spent that way. As for the government overhead, that is a problem with our system, not the stimulus package. We allow congress members to vote themselves raises, and increased benefits; in addition to that, they receive money from innumerable corporations, who hope the congress members will think of them when passing new laws that could potentially cost them (the corporations) more. You can’t attack the stimulus without attacking our system.
If you actually read on in your article “Stimulus Math: $533,000 Per Job Saved or Created?”, you will find that there are qualifiers to the amount. In short, it is estimated that as the contracts go on, the cost will go down to approximately $92,136 to create a job, where it would cost $145,351 in tax cuts to produce the same results.
I agree that printing money is not the answer; though it might allow us to pay back our national debt, it would ultimately leave us in a deeper recession than we already are.
Not quite. Look here:
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2-year NASDAQ graph
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2-year DJIA graph
Both of them look awfully similar- the big drop was in October of 2008, which is right after Obama got the DNC nomination.
Stocks have no real bearing on GDP (if anything, GDP determines the stocks, which is why we see them start to fail a couple months after the economic slump); the numbers don’t even mean anything (they only mean something if you cash them in). GDP is determined by goods and services produced. I shouldn’t need to tell you where to find that…
Adjusted dollars are a poor figure to use since our adjusted GDP is also far larger than it used to be. You should look at the deficit as a percentage of the total GDP to get a more accurate picture of what administration spent the most of the nation's economic output. Not surprisingly, the administration that had the highest spending-to-GDP ratio was
FDR's. The time that Obama has been in office is a noticeable spike at the edge of that graph, while Bush's spending-to-GDP ratio isn't much different than anybody else's since about 1980. Yes, Bush spent way too much, but I never said he didn't.
By the way, I wasn’t talking about spending; spending is fine if you pay it back. I was talking about increasing the national debt. From a little research, I actually found that FDR increased the government debt by approximately 23% of the GDP where Bush increased it by 21% of the GDP; I made an error in my previous statement; I should have said that he has raised the national debt by more than
all but two administration (Reagan gets third, he increased it by 19%). You may be wondering where Truman is, since he increased the debt beyond 100% of GDP; he paid it back before he left office.
From more research regarding your article about FDR, 73% of historians disagree with the contents, as well as 51% of economists, and only 23% of economists agree without any provisions. If we analyze the unemployment rates around that time, we see a slow but steady decrease from the time the New Deal was enacted, to a sharp decrease (almost to 0) around 1939. Upon further research of the article and how the UCLA researchers deduced their findings, I found that they are centering their opinions upon this 1939 decrease because several of the New Deal policies ended at that time. If we take a closer look at this however, we see that the reason for the decrease in unemployment was due to the massive increase of manufacturing jobs (military, of course) due to the impending war. In short, the research they did proves nothing. We will never know whether or not the New Deal extended the Great Depression or not, but we do know that if nothing was done, either a revolution would have occurred, or we would still be there.
...which is why we need to keep spending down to keep the money in the hands of the people that
do make the jobs rather than losing a chunk of it to government overhead. Nobody's going to want to invest a bunch of money in anything except very low-risk, high-revenue/margin stuff if they fear that they will get the snot taxed out of them and have to deal with a ton of new bureaucratic red tape that may very well
bankrupt them.
For this, I refer back to my previous statement, from your article; it costs approximately $92,136 to create a job, where it takes $145,351 in tax cuts to create a job. This tells us that tax cuts aren’t as effective at creating jobs.
Though I don’t agree with the harshness of that proposal, something does need to be done, however. I don’t think it’s necessary to get into a global warming discussion, but putting crap into our atmosphere is bad, regardless of whether or not it causes climate change.
Despite what college recruiters and the media would have you think, you never were guaranteed a job just because you have a degree. Part of this is that some people pursue largely unmarketable degrees, such as gender studies and 16th century Italian literature. Part of it is that many jobs don't actually need a college degree to perform. The only reason that some employers make it a "requirement" is that they want people who are slightly older and hopefully more mature than your average 18-year-old kid fresh out of high school and going out into the wide world for the first time. Also, there are a lot of jobs that you go through non-college training to do, such as any of the trades. Those jobs are typically looked down upon, which is why some people wouldn't seek them out.
Indeed, however degrees have become so commonplace that even if you have the skills, but you don’t a college degree, you probably won’t get hired. I know several people personally who have lost their jobs after 20+ years, but when they got their job, they didn’t have a degree because they didn’t need it. Today, they’re having a hard time finding a new job.
Unless you are a high-level corporate officer in that defunct company, why would it look bad? It says nothing about you if the company you work for goes under and you lost your job. You did nothing wrong, so why should it reflect badly on you?
It would be a mar on your resume, regardless of whose fault it was. You’d probably get questioned about it, and it might make the difference between getting the job or not.
Yes, and unfortunately the decision with the highest chance of a good outcome was to go and stick the debt on the government. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were backed by the government, so it was in the best interest of those groups to take on very high-risk but high-interest loans. If the loan is good, you make a ton in interest payments. If they default, you spin the loss off on the government. Either way you end up smelling like a rose. That's what happened and is why I said we rewarded foolish behavior.
As I said before, I believe that receiving the stimulus money should have required restructuring of some kind. I agree though, we did reward foolish behavior, but doing nothing would have been worse.
And notice that Obama
didn't repeal it?
And actually Moore
did make a film on economics.
Obama, as president, can’t repeal the Patriot Act. It has to be brought before the Supreme Court. The presidency is not a position of omnipotence; as president one is limited by the other two branches (Congress and the Supreme Court). He can’t say “I don’t like that law so I’m going to get rid of it.” In reality, he doesn’t have much power at all; all he can do is approve or disapprove what Congress approves.
Ah, thank you for the information about the film, perhaps I will have something to watch this weekend. It’s probably still in theatres though, isn’t it? I guess I can wait a couple months.