AMD and Intel General Discussion (not for getting help)

[roofus]

we ordered 70 more Chintel stations at work Friday and 2 more Chintel servers. i speculated we would end up with at least 1 AMD powered server this time but it didnt materialize.

 

[fazers_on_stun]

Or possibly ChIntel for the others?. Nice to see that Istanbul beats Nehalem in super computer uses , like linpack, and all these super computers can easily be upgraded without a whole new creation, dispelling a few myths about people saying businesses dont just drop in new cores, and its much cheaper to do so, and this time at least, also with more power over the competitions completely wholely new , needed platform. So sorry ChIntel, you lose

Hmm, where does it say in the article that "Istanbul beats Nehalem in super computer uses"?? All the reviews I've read show Nehalem still comfortably ahead of Istanbul for HPC in all the other benchies.

Also, I doubt anybody would classify the NSF or Oakridge labs as a "business" - they are on the public dole - er, taxpayer funded 😀. And I would not be surprised if AMD just gave them the Istanbuls as a publicity stunt plus tax writeoff, so in these 2 cases, yes much cheaper than Intel 😗

 

[fazers_on_stun]

AMD, however you want to spell it, is building a new fab in the US, not China, or elsewheres. Thats good to see, isnt it? IF you live in the states that is

I know of some NY taxpayers who are quite upset about the $1.4B they have to shell out to subsidize ATIC, which is 50% owned by the UAE, for a paltry 1400 jobs or so. That comes out to an easy million dollars per job... So Lex Luthor Forest is not exactly a shining light for the taxpayers, also because of all the environmental concerns. :lol:

 

[JAYDEEJOHN]

Glad you included "all the other" benches, especially since those "other" benches mean nothing, as the super computers use LINPACK, per cluster, and Istanbul wins, and thus, the fastest super computers.
OK, 1400 x 50000 = 70,000,000, and this is very very conservative. Individual tax is 6.85%, so 4.8 million a year, just on the employees. Now, sales tax, we'll go 8%, so say, roughly 3 million a year. So, thats close to 8 million a year returned by just the employees. New jobs creation capital usually turn over 8 times before leaving the state per se, so the available 62 million dollars in sales per year come to 400+ million in total turnover for money spent, all of which again, is taxable, and proftitable too. These numbers add up fast, and a 1 time investment, within a small period of time will be caught up and surpassed, and be a plus, in less than 10 years. Remember, all those GF employees add to the local economy, and will pay others salaries as well, its been done by every state since I can remember, and is always a plus for the state, usually in short order, otherwise, whatd be the point? Bragging rights?
If they continued to pour money into it, then theyd never catch up, and actually lose money on it, and Ive seen a few situations where some states have done this very thing, to keep their constituants happy, but that wont happen here

 

[roofus]

Depends on how many workers that come from overseas with work permits as to how much it will truely benefit the area. A place that I wrorked for for a few years that shall remain nameless had a large number of middle management, engineers and upper management from overseas. One conversation with a product engineer clued me in how that works for them. They made 75USD a month in their home country. They make roughly the same here but get a free hotel room, free eats and small groups shared rental cars. They loved it because the quality of life was so much better even though they would spend 12-16 hours a day at work, 6 days a week and maybe a half day on the 7th day. A scenario like that plays out, then there wont be this huge influx of cash for the local area.

 

[amdfangirl]

I know of some NY taxpayers who are quite upset about the $1.4B they have to shell out to subsidize ATIC, which is 50% owned by the UAE, for a paltry 1400 jobs or so. That comes out to an easy million dollars per job... So Lex Luthor Forest is not exactly a shining light for the taxpayers, also because of all the environmental concerns. :lol:

Might as well invest in social welfare :lol:

 

[fazers_on_stun]

Glad you included "all the other" benches, especially since those "other" benches mean nothing, as the super computers use LINPACK, per cluster, and Istanbul wins, and thus, the fastest super computers.
OK, 1400 x 50000 = 70,000,000, and this is very very conservative. Individual tax is 6.85%, so 4.8 million a year, just on the employees. Now, sales tax, we'll go 8%, so say, roughly 3 million a year. So, thats close to 8 million a year returned by just the employees. New jobs creation capital usually turn over 8 times before leaving the state per se, so the available 62 million dollars in sales per year come to 400+ million in total turnover for money spent, all of which again, is taxable, and proftitable too. These numbers add up fast, and a 1 time investment, within a small period of time will be caught up and surpassed, and be a plus, in less than 10 years. Remember, all those GF employees add to the local economy, and will pay others salaries as well, its been done by every state since I can remember, and is always a plus for the state, usually in short order, otherwise, whatd be the point? Bragging rights?
If they continued to pour money into it, then theyd never catch up, and actually lose money on it, and Ive seen a few situations where some states have done this very thing, to keep their constituants happy, but that wont happen here

Not to worry - Nehalem EX will be out in a few short months, and then the 6-core 32nm Westmeres early next year. Yeah I know - Mangy Curs are coming but they'll likely prove to be real "dogs" of a CPU 😀.

As for the economic predictions for Luther Forest, predictions I've seen are considerably less than $400M per year - typically finished wafers are sent elsewhere - usually overseas where labor is cheaper - for dicing, bonding, etc into finished CPUs. I believe the 1400 jobs figure included the anxillary job creation, not just the fab jobs. I'll see if I can find the link. Anyway, even assuming your $400M figure, actual tax revenue to the state would probably only amount to $40M or so, considering the tax breaks handed out. At that rate, it would take 350 years to recover the $1.4B taxpayer contribution, money that would probably be better spent on infrastructure since nearly all of that would stay in the state.

 

[fazers_on_stun]

Might as well invest in social welfare :lol:

LOL. What strikes me as peculiar about the whole deal is why NY State and the UAE would invest all this $$ in a down market with lots of excess fab capacity - unless the world economy picks up quickly, this will be like investing in refrigerators in the Antartic...

 

[JAYDEEJOHN]

That money is the tax breaks, which will be paid down over time. No state just hands out money to businesses. They may make it more conducive to do business in their state, they offer many ways/types of incentives, but trust me, its never charity, certainly not the kind people think. Its used mainly for polittcal reasons, pro or con, but, in the end, the state wins either way

 

[JAYDEEJOHN]

I remember a conversation about, Intel, the economy, and how its going to hurt AMD worse. At the time, Id said, Intel, with all its fabs, and as they try to go to 450mm wafers, and having smaller nodes, meaning more per wafer, and keeping them all fed, plus trends, like ARM hurting their Atom business, thus pulling from the bottom, DT slowly dying, mobile their great hope, but it too is being challenged, and their pricing/profit margines and expectations, would take a bigger hit in the overall picture, as they focus at the very top, while their competition (AMD) focuses on the middle, and other competition (ARM) focuses on the low/ultra mobile end, it will have a greater negative effect on Intel.
"Gosh, no. But ARM does play a role in this ASP erosion via netbooks, although certainly not the only role. And this isn't only about ARM stealing volume, but also Intel being unexpectedly aggressive pricing-wise with Pineview on one hand, and allowing further penetration of Moorestown into netbooks on the other. The indirect effect of this, combined with a fearful consumer sentiment, will be polarization hurting mid-range notebooks where the most of the BoM goes to Intel right now.

There really are many different small factors I think are relevant to this prediction both in the short-term and the mid-term, don't focus too much on the above. But the most important single factor (I don't think it's quite as big as all the others combined though) is definitely the macroeconomy, especially its micro-level consequences. For example, I'd expect corporate PC volumes *and* ASPs to go down even deeper than anyone seems to be forecasting right now. This also hurts Intel indirectly because that's where their percentage of the desktop BoM is the highest.

In addition to ASP reductions, I expect this to hurt wafer starts - and since Intel has its own fabs and seems very aggressive on 32nm, that's just screaming looming overcapacity. Which will hurt margins too, and eventually ASPs through basic supply-and-demand of the overall CPU market. AMD would suffer from the latter, although obviously not much from the former since it's GF that takes the hit for overcapacity now - so I wouldn't be more worried about them than usual."
http://forum.beyond3d.com/showthread.php?t=54539&page=2

It appears Im not the only one thinking this way, and was somewhat surprised to see, almost verbatim what Id previously written. All Im saying here is, if I thought about this, and others are too, and see this as a possibility down the road, we need to watch the trends/directions and the economy, and as importantly, the attitude shifts afterwards, if there are any. Maybe the "best" wont be as glamorized as it is now, and we all see that coming, as the top dogs in business arent respected generally, but despised.
I believe this will transgress further into purchasing/ownership. We already have a president and a mindset that says less is more, more is greed only, and better is just a term, where facts are thrown out the window, caught up in the winds created by global warming itself

PS Just remember this, I dont care which cpu company is the best etc, I only care for good cpus. I dont wish for the worst for any company, Intel included. Just some observations is all, and a few counterstrokes of course heheh

 

[fazers_on_stun]

That money is the tax breaks, which will be paid down over time. No state just hands out money to businesses. They may make it more conducive to do business in their state, they offer many ways/types of incentives, but trust me, its never charity, certainly not the kind people think. Its used mainly for polittcal reasons, pro or con, but, in the end, the state wins either way

Of course, if NY was actually a business they would have to be concerned with ROI. I think the payback period will be decades, not years, so Luther Forest is probably more of an ego boost than anything else.

OTOH, AMD doesn't seem too concerned about ROI either 😀...

 

[fazers_on_stun]

I remember a conversation about, Intel, the economy, and how its going to hurt AMD worse. At the time, Id said, Intel, with all its fabs, and as they try to go to 450mm wafers, and having smaller nodes, meaning more per wafer, and keeping them all fed, plus trends, like ARM hurting their Atom business, thus pulling from the bottom, DT slowly dying, mobile their great hope, but it too is being challenged, and their pricing/profit margines and expectations, would take a bigger hit in the overall picture, as they focus at the very top, while their competition (AMD) focuses on the middle, and other competition (ARM) focuses on the low/ultra mobile end, it will have a greater negative effect on Intel.

IIRC Intel reports out the 2nd quarter next week, and AMD the week following. That should give us a good idea on how they are respectively faring in this down economy.

In addition to ASP reductions, I expect this to hurt wafer starts - and since Intel has its own fabs and seems very aggressive on 32nm, that's just screaming looming overcapacity.

ASPs are only half the equation - the other half being actual cost to manufacture the products. And since Intel owns it own fabs, then there's no profit margin on fabbing to account for, unlike GF and AMD. As I have said all along, the UAE is going to want to see a return on their billions invested, and so the cost to AMD will include a profit margin on the fabbing of their CPUs. They may be currently exchanging debt for shares but you know that cannot go on forever. This in turn will reduce AMD's margins if they have to maintain or reduce their ASPs in order to retain or increase marketshare, as AMD has demonstrated they are willing to do in the past.

Intel has shuttered outdated fabs & facilities in the last year, so I wouldn't worry about them having "screaming looming overcapacity" 😀. With GF going to what - 3 fabs in the next few years, they're the ones likely to suffer from overcapacity and having to beat the bushes for customers. AFAIK, Intel is the only customer for its own fabs. So either GF steals most of TSMC's and the other foundry's business, or else AMD jumps to 80% marketshare and Intel drops to 20%. How likely is either one of those??

 

[JAYDEEJOHN]

I see flexability in GF, as they could make ARM chips along side of AMD, or nVidia as well. Not so with Intel. What will be interesting will be fusion, if its SoC, or simply on-die. If On die, then again, nothing shipping out, unlike Intel to TSMC, all done once again at GF.
This isnt now, and these numbers/trends wont show up for awhile, but by next years time, it will be showing up.
I posted a lil about the multi core issues we will be facing, and how the talk has shifted strangely from multi core to now each thread will/may/might have turbo. As we enter into the 6 core on up, which is obviously better suited towards Intels whole setup, theres going to have to be a return user side, and quickly, and since gpgpu is about to enter the fray, and that will be seen as a major contributer, may even be seen as the multi core rival, and thus play into the hands of lessor processes, while ARM will continue to invade mobile, and a different economy, with different attitudes, we have to watch it, not now, this second, as trends do take time

 

[roofus]

solid point in the flexibility there. dont rule out GF producing Nvidia chips in the future.

 

[Xenonvector927]

Have you guys read the article on Core i5 yet? Opinions?

 

[theholylancer]

Have you guys read the article on Core i5 yet? Opinions?

where is the said article?

 

[JAYDEEJOHN]

Maybe the mobo one? Where they didnt give any benches?

 

[fazers_on_stun]

THIS just in 😀 :

Despite Repeated Allegations that "Intel Just Doesn't Get It" by Tom's resident JDJ, Intel trumps forecasts, bodes well for PC sector

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Intel Corp's quarterly results and outlook blew past Wall Street forecasts on better-than-expected consumer demand for PCs, especially in Asia, setting an auspicious tone for the technology sector.

Shares of Intel, the world's largest chipmaker, jumped 8 percent on the report, driving Standard & Poor's 500 stock index futures sharply higher and bolstering technology shares such as arch rival Advanced Micro Devices Inc .

Intel projected third-quarter revenue at $8.1 billion to $8.9 billion, compared with analysts' average forecast of $7.8 billion, according to Reuters Estimates.

CFO Stacy Smith said fourth-quarter gross margins could scale the high end of a "normal" range -- which Intel defines as 50 to 60 percent -- due partly to declining production costs for new generations of chips and other factors.

Intel's strong showing came despite what it described as weak demand from the corporations that traditionally are big buyers of computer equipment, and comments by Intel executives that Microsoft's forthcoming Windows 7 operating system is unlikely to revive corporate spending this year.

In other news, an enormous pair of pants was heard flapping thunderously over Sunnyvale, CA as startled onlookers gazed upwards...

 

[fazers_on_stun]

What's interesting in the above story is the fact that Intel beat the forecast on the basis of consumer sales, not corporate which was flat. So it would seem the sour economy wasn't so bad in the 2nd quarter after all. This should float AMD's boat as well, given their improved product lineup.

 

[JAYDEEJOHN]

This also just in. As was quoted earlier, ChIntel is getting its money from China, and is investing it there, not a new fab in the US
""We should be careful not to read too much into it," said Edward Snyder, an analyst at Charter Equity Research, of Intel's strong quarter. "I expect a lot of it to dissipate next quarter."

At the beginning of the year, Intel cut back production as it moved to deal with a glut of inventory and a deep recession that was crimping spending. Now, the world's largest chipmaker has sold off that excess and begun to ramp up chip production, a dynamic that fueled its better-than- expected revenue.

Intel's second-quarter performance also benefited from booming sales in Asia. Some analysts say that suggests Intel benefited as Chinese consumers spent money the government used to stimulate the economy."

http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/djf500/200907142110DOWJONESDJONLINE000619_FORTUNE5.htm

So, it appears ChIntels fortune is on the backs of government money, Chinese no less

 

[theholylancer]

Not Intel's fault if our governments care less about high tech consumer high tech than death killing high tech... I can say that if all this hard ware companies were to be bankrupt today, there won't be any bailout money for them because no one is on the board of directors in Washington/Ottawa for bailouts unlike all of them old school car manufactures.

 

[JAYDEEJOHN]

I dunno. Without Intel/AMD et al, alot of that government hardware wouldnt be working, tho, it seems they dont know how , or how much it costs either, since Obama and Co. think FireFox is too expensive heheh

 

[fazers_on_stun]

This also just in. As was quoted earlier, ChIntel is getting its money from China, and is investing it there, not a new fab in the US
""We should be careful not to read too much into it," said Edward Snyder, an analyst at Charter Equity Research, of Intel's strong quarter. "I expect a lot of it to dissipate next quarter."

At the beginning of the year, Intel cut back production as it moved to deal with a glut of inventory and a deep recession that was crimping spending. Now, the world's largest chipmaker has sold off that excess and begun to ramp up chip production, a dynamic that fueled its better-than- expected revenue.

Intel's second-quarter performance also benefited from booming sales in Asia. Some analysts say that suggests Intel benefited as Chinese consumers spent money the government used to stimulate the economy."

http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/djf500/200907142110DOWJONESDJONLINE000619_FORTUNE5.htm

So, it appears ChIntels fortune is on the backs of government money, Chinese no less

So, let's count the # of US fabs:

(From Intel.com) How many factories do you have worldwide, where are they located and what percentage of your workforce do they employ?
Intel has 15 wafer fabs in production worldwide at nine locations. Fab production sites within the United States are located in Chandler, Ariz.; Santa Clara, Calif.; Colorado Springs, Colo.; Hudson, Mass.; Rio Rancho, N.M.; and Hillsboro, Ore.; and outside the United States in Leixlip, Ireland; Jerusalem, Israel; and Kiryal Gat, Israel. Two new fabs are under construction at existing sites in Arizona and Israel.

The company has six assembly and test sites worldwide and is building a seventh, all of them outside the U.S. Assembly and test sites outside the United States are located in Shanghai, China; Chengdu, China; San Jose, Costa Rica; Kulim, Malaysia; Penang, Malaysia; and Cavite, Philippines. An assembly and testing site in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, is under construction. There is one testing facility and one assembly development facility inside the U.S.

Looks like Intel = 6, AMD = 0 as of right now 😀

I'm fairly certain that if some state were to offer Intel $1.4B of hard-earned taxpayer money, they would consider building a new fab there ...

 

[JAYDEEJOHN]

They diont need it, didnt you read my link, theyve already got their subsidy

 

[TechnologyCoordinator]

Financial specualtion: Intel BK 3Q 2009