AMD CPU speculation... and expert conjecture

[amdfangirl]

Too many people talking gaming and calling it a failure. The real question is in the server performance where the real money is.

Please don't spam this message or I will have to ban you for spam.

I have deleted the extra posts.

 

[de5_Roy]

thanks for fixing the image link, amdfangirl.

 

[amdfangirl]

Right click -> Copy Image Location

Paste in

 

[dozerman]

Heh, we heard ya the first time ..

Anyway AMD has been stuck around the 5% mark in server marketshare for over a year now - if PD and/or the SeaMicro effort pays off, we might get a hint during the Q4 earnings report due out in about 6 or 7 weeks from now. But AMD undergoing another 15% layoff a few months after the last one, plus selling their Austin campus, plus seeking out Goldman Sachs and getting another cash bailout from ATIC does not bode well for any possible sudden increase in their cash flow from the most lucrative segment.

Only thing I've seen recently is Rory Read stating something about black Friday not sucking too much, which would seem to be about the consumer segment as I doubt IT buyers honor the black Friday tradition too much and line up at night to be first in line to buy a server farm at 50% off prices ..

Sorry about that. My phone kept telling me that the data didn't go through, so I kept hitting the submit button. XD

 

[Cazalan]

the chips were designed to run higher. Just looking at the power consumption and the OC numbers. If you can cool bulldozer, it OCed. The leaking 32nm process made it impossible to run the chips at high speeds.

They wished it would have run faster, but there is a limit to every 32nm process. Intel, IBM, TSMC, Samsung, GF, none went past 4Ghz without the power consumption going through the roof.

If Intel or TSMC were shipping 5ghz standard CPUs then you might have an argument against GF.

 

[esrever]

They wished it would have run faster, but there is a limit to every 32nm process. Intel, IBM, TSMC, Samsung, GF, none went past 4Ghz without the power consumption going through the roof.

If Intel or TSMC were shipping 5ghz standard CPUs then you might have an argument against GF.

ibm ran at 5ghz at 32nm. its not only the process that dictates how high a cpu can clock.

 

[-Fran-]

ibm ran at 5ghz at 32nm. its not only the process that dictates how high a cpu can clock.

You missed the part "without the power consumption going through the roof".

In all fairness, AMD has been consistent with PD in the 125W envelope using 4Ghz.

Intel as well, if you think about OC. They've gone past 4Ghz since a long time ago if they wanted to keep the 125W TDP mark.

Now, depending on the way to use Silicon to get things out in a given process node, you have different thermal behaviors. AMD has always been more resistant to heat, but that doesn't mean it's a bad process because it heats up more (half agree with myself on this, haha).

I like to use the 4850 single slot using 65nm (IIRC) as a very good example; that thing could handle 80°c + with no issues XD

Cheers!

EDIT: Typos and missing text

 

[JAYDEEJOHN]

It all depends on pipe length and other factors, as well as usage.
Why dont GPUs do 3-4 Ghz?
Waaaaaay too wide, so they dont need to, as width used in parallism does what its designed to do, as we see Knights corner/LRB etc go with many cores as well.

A true Central Processor as used in DT can and does use higher clocks, where specialized chips on same node can go higher

 

[fazers_on_stun]

Sorry about that. My phone kept telling me that the data didn't go through, so I kept hitting the submit button. XD

No probs. A lot of posters don't realize you can delete posts entirely when editing them.

 

[fazers_on_stun]

http://money.msn.com/business-news/article.aspx?feed=OBR&date=20121206&id=15875596

AMD cuts back on GlobalFoundries purchases in 2013

Advanced Micro Devices will scale back on purchases from manufacturing partner GlobalFoundries Inc in 2013, allowing the struggling microprocessor firm to conserve cash and reflecting a slowdown in the personal computer market.

A distant runner-up to Intel Corp in PC microprocessors, AMD is trying to raise capital and arrest steep declines in revenue as the PC market sputters. It divulged plans last month to sell and lease back its campus in Austin, Texas, to raise cash and fund its chipmaking business.

On Thursday, AMD said it had struck a deal with GlobalFoundries, under which it lowered wafer purchase commitments for the fourth quarter of 2012 to about $115 million, and to $1.15 billion in fiscal 2013.

Along with lowered payments for research and development, the agreement with the foundry partner should allow AMD to return to free cash flow generation by the second half of 2013, the company said in a statement.

 

[earl45]

http://money.msn.com/business-news/article.aspx?feed=OBR&date=20121206&id=15875596

AMD cuts back on GlobalFoundries purchases in 2013

Advanced Micro Devices will scale back on purchases from manufacturing partner GlobalFoundries Inc in 2013, allowing the struggling microprocessor firm to conserve cash and reflecting a slowdown in the personal computer market.

A distant runner-up to Intel Corp in PC microprocessors, AMD is trying to raise capital and arrest steep declines in revenue as the PC market sputters. It divulged plans last month to sell and lease back its campus in Austin, Texas, to raise cash and fund its chipmaking business.

On Thursday, AMD said it had struck a deal with GlobalFoundries, under which it lowered wafer purchase commitments for the fourth quarter of 2012 to about $115 million, and to $1.15 billion in fiscal 2013.

Along with lowered payments for research and development, the agreement with the foundry partner should allow AMD to return to free cash flow generation by the second half of 2013, the company said in a statement.

When is there going to be good news for AMD?

 

[Cazalan]

ibm ran at 5ghz at 32nm. its not only the process that dictates how high a cpu can clock.

I recall that it needed about 1200W just to power the CPU. Not in the same ballpark.

It also costs over $20,000 for the CPU the way IBM charges for "activated" cores.

For that kind of money I'm sure you can get all kinds of overclocked and water cooled Intel/AMD kit running over 5Ghz.

 

[Chad Boga]

How many businesses will go away at the hands of Intel's 14nm innovation?

Well if your speculation about it being virtually impossible for Intel to produce 14nm desktop CPU's proves to be true, then all these businesses will be saved.

 

[JAYDEEJOHN]

When is there going to be good news for AMD?

R Read may be the solution
Obviously, the current business model wasnt working, so shifting priorities was essential.
Tighten your focus, head towards future markets, dump those that arent heading that way, at least within the parameters within the current assets within the company.
Its going to hurt alot, but hopefully will get them going again.

 

[JAYDEEJOHN]

Samsung’s share of world silicon foundry market remains low. According to market research organization Gartner, in 2011 TSMC had 48.8% of the market, far leading United Microelectronics Corp.’s 12.1%, GlobalFoundries Inc.’s 12% and Samsung’s 1.6%.

http://news.cens.com/cens/html/en/news/news_inner_42252.html

Not sure if this reflects AMDs slowing of GF or not.

 

[noob2222]

Well if your speculation about it being virtually impossible for Intel to produce 14nm desktop CPU's proves to be true, then all these businesses will be saved.

production is the easy part, keeping it from turning into a smoldering pile of ash when its turned on is something different.

making 14nm into a bga makes sense as you don't have the socket storing heat or insulating the bottom of the chip, instead it helps transfer heat to the motherboard itself.

 

[fazers_on_stun]

When is there going to be good news for AMD?

IMO that is good news for AMD - they are cutting their dependency on GF. By getting away from their special dependency on GF, the latter will now have to compete on a level playing field for AMD's business, against TSMC for now anyway. It's about time AMD recognized the problem and took steps to remedy the situation.

And, this is evidence that not all the problems lie with AMD - as almost everybody here recognizes, GF has a pretty bad track record at least with fabbing AMD's products. In this lousy economy, AMD needs to execute to perfection, from upper management providing direction and leadership, to the engineers designing the products, to the fab(s) making the product timely, competitively and low enough costs for AMD to get its margins back up, and to marketing.

 

[earl45]

IMO that is good news for AMD - they are cutting their dependency on GF. By getting away from their special dependency on GF, the latter will now have to compete on a level playing field for AMD's business, against TSMC for now anyway. It's about time AMD recognized the problem and took steps to remedy the situation.

And, this is evidence that not all the problems lie with AMD - as almost everybody here recognizes, GF has a pretty bad track record at least with fabbing AMD's products. In this lousy economy, AMD needs to execute to perfection, from upper management providing direction and leadership, to the engineers designing the products, to the fab(s) making the product timely, competitively and low enough costs for AMD to get its margins back up, and to marketing.

I can agree with you on AMD getting away from GF is pretty good news.

 

[JAYDEEJOHN]

Typically, on TSMCs process, its not the slow maturation weve seen on GF/AMD in the past.
Usually, the main problems with TSMCs processes is supply and demand, tho one could argue even TSMCs processes of the past was slow to maturation, but that being more rare than typical

 

[jdwii]

I recall that it needed about 1200W just to power the CPU. Not in the same ballpark.

It also costs over $20,000 for the CPU the way IBM charges for "activated" cores.

For that kind of money I'm sure you can get all kinds of overclocked and water cooled Intel/AMD kit running over 5Ghz.

Lol Intel could probably make a 5Ghz CPU with a TDP of 125-145 watts.

Well if your speculation about it being virtually impossible for Intel to produce 14nm desktop CPU's proves to be true, then all these businesses will be saved.

For just a second i though that was someone else i was going to say your nuts Intel will not only produce 14nm before Global disasters but they will also be able to produce high-end CPU's unlike GF.

I can agree with you on AMD getting away from GF is pretty good news.

I obviously agree as well, Amd just cant keep making these mistakes over and over again.

Llano- Low demand, Bulldozer delayed 1 year when they came out power hungry and hot(Amd's fault to) Now we have Steamroller delayed and are we even going to have a Steamroller APU in 2013 or just a slightly tweaked PD?

Solution Get away from GF but still use them start to use TSMC more. Be cool if they could use even more fabs samsung maybe? Start cutting management left and right start bringing in some new engineers, be better to get a few good engineers(ones back up with experience and a good rep) vs a lot of average ones.

^ Do that and in 3-5 years they will be back, times will be bad for them next couple of years but as long as they start now they might be able to stay in business without needing to team up with Arm or Samsung.

 

[Cazalan]

AMD makes less sense by the day. They've paid a small fortune to sever their ties with GF, and it still hasn't ended.

The latest report that they cut back orders on $500mil to $115mil, gives a short term savings of 385mil. But it adds a whopping $320 mil severance fee. That means every chip they've paid for in Q4 actually costs them 3x as much.

To cover that loss they have to sell their Texas campus for 250mil, which doesn't even cover the FEE.

Why are there not more firings at AMD. The execs making these arrangements have sunk the company.

 

[esrever]

They are only free to move to other fabs but there is nothing planned as of yet. They also still have to pay GF even if GF doesn't fabbed their chips.

 

[JAYDEEJOHN]

http://www.techdesignforums.com/blog/2012/10/16/tsmc-finfet-roadmap/

 

[mayankleoboy1]

^ What i understood from the previous links you posted was
1. Intel is far ahead of the competition
2. More and more fabs are looking to skip a node
3. move from 28nm planar to 20nm planar is not worth RoI.
4. FinFET is the future
5. Intel is far ahead of the competition

 

[de5_Roy]

^^
seems like intel is ahead only in terms of fabrication. they haven't made power efficient chips like the ones based on arm instruction set. makes me think if intel's x86 itself is power inefficient which is why intel is competing with die shrinks instead of aggressively tweaking/stripping down their own instruction set and/or architecture.