AMD CPU speculation... and expert conjecture

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I didn't even mention the word "games". Your first false statement.

The article doesn't lie, because doesn't say what you pretend. Your second false statement.

HSA workloads have been always differentiated from ordinary CPU workloads. Your third false statement.

Your accusation that the cosmology site numbers are fake and the site is lying is another false statement. And your subsequent attemtp to prove it was comical, but your pretension (your 'proof' LOL) that Kaveri/Steamroller is a 36% (or did you say 39%?) slower than Bulldozer did me laugh for days.

All this shows, once again, that you are here to bash AMD with blatantly false statements and to attack any person or site that disagrees or correct you.
 




Now continue reading: "But AMD expects ARM processors to outrun x86 chips in the long term"



Now continue reading: "will be faster and more powerful than its existing low-power x86 server processors. [...] The chips will be up to four times faster and more power efficient than the quad-core Opteron X-series chips"

Do you know what "four times faster" mean? I do. The top Seattle processor has about the same GFLOP than a FX-8350 and more DMIPS.



Now continue reading: "But AMD expects ARM processors to outrun x86 chips in the long term"



It is the same market. I already gave this quote before:

He also told us that “Warsaw”, AMD’s follow up in the 2P/4P server market, will cater for a declining but still large market with institutional customers that will take longer to migrate to an ARM ecosystem.

The x86 server CPU is aimed to customers that will need more time to port their software to ARM.

"He" is Andrew Feldman, head of AMD servers division.



Nobody can say you a concrete datetime such as "February, day 23 at eight on clock...". But AMD already said that by 2015 big data centers will start to port their software to ARM. By 2016 ARM will have about double digit market share in servers.
 


Neither one nor the other:



One cannot evaluate the efficiency of an architecture by comparing the power consumption of a card that includes more than the architecture (there are many other things in a card beyond GCN or VLIW4 cores) and that is made in a very different process.



And you continue dogging the question, as you have been doing for days. The question was:



At least he tried to answer the question giving a concrete number...
 


Unless they did build a timemachine, travel to the future and purchase the future Seattle server, those customers only could purchase a x86 server. Therefore this claim: "AMD expects ARM processors to outrun x86 chips in the long term" holds.
 
From by BSN* article (abstract):

Combining all this data, I predict that the CPU of the top Kaveri APU will be about 26% faster than top Trinity APU and about 17% faster than top Richland APU. This would put the multi-threaded performance of the CPU of the new quad core Kaveri APU at the same level than an Intel quad core i5 or a six-core AMD FX with traditional software.

The next slide has been recently leaked:

z8cvdm3.png


For the GPU, I assumed a minimum gain of 33%. But then I was managing higher frequencies for the GPU by using the 1050GFLOP. Kaveri comes with lower GPU frequencies, the lower frequencies are compensated by the better architecture gain and Kaveri GPU is expected to be ~30% faster than Richland.

Finally, it seems my simulations are not very far...
 
I am thinking about just waiting for Excavator APU, i have a feeling that if i jump into Kaveri FM2+ now i will not be able to upgrade since FM2+ will be rapidly discontinued as soon as DDR4 hits market, so i believe the Socket have it`s days numbered.

This may be interesting, hopefully AMD benefits from this:

http://www.chw.net/2013/11/intel-ampliara-su-division-custom-foundry/
 


This is entertaining ... rofl. You can't come up with any proof at all so you just try the "your a liar" tactic.
 



Sure why made $30 parts on your top fabs when they can be making $10,000 parts for Altera.
 



The only chance I see of that happening in the near future (2-5 years) is if Apple does it. They have the money to do it and own the OS and hardware to do it.

At some point I'm sure they'd like to run their entire back end services on their own hardware.
 

shouldn't influence other pc makers. arm based apple desktops will run windows RT as dual boot. 😛
i doubt arm (and their partners) will permit lga cpus/socs for desktops. they'd go for something like all in one pcs with bga socs and on board discreet gpus and vram powering large 22" displays. meaning, no d.i.y. upgrading of central components.
 


Well DYI upgrading has already been declining. That doesn't have much to do with ARM/X86 but more to do with the form factors and costs.

They could come back though. You already see Motorola wanting to make a modular cell phone. And you got Xi3 with their modular and tiny computers. Its just going to cost you more.

 


This already happened with PowerPC architecture and it had no effect at all on x86 in Windows environment. Apple could go ARM for everything but the entire ecosystem would be walled off from the rest of the world. Meaning the only way ARM could see significant DT/Workstation/Laptop marketshare is if Apple decided to go ARM and gained significant market share. And I'm not talking market share in comparison to Dell or HP or Asus, I'm talking market share as in lump all x86 Wintel and AMD companies together and compare them against Apple's ARMs.





No one has anything worthwhile to upgrade to. I had a 4ghz i7 920 before the 5ghz FX 8350 and the only reasons why I did it was to cut compile and render times and because I wanted a new toy to overclock.

To be honest I probably lost some performance in single thread but it doesn't matter.

However anyone with common sense and a system that's not completely ancient (sub Phenom 2 or sub first gen Core i7) really doesn't have much of a reason to upgrade anything in their systems besides their graphics cards. And most people are still running 1080p monitors so even something like a 7970/280x is overkill.

http://www.ign.com/wikis/battlefield-4/PC_System_Requirements
Minimum requirements for BF4 are still Athlon X2 or Core 2 Duo.

You're looking at minimum E4600 released in 2007 for $133.
 


The primary reason the mobile market is so profitable is the the devices are sold as disposable. People are changing their phones out every year or two. That's a much faster pace then for changing out their desktops. It's also why ARM mobile looks so big in sales numbers. People buy 2~3 phones for every DT, maybe even more.
 
i was wondering if arm would bring same disposability into pc ecosystem. imo, that would fail. now, people don't want to swap out their primary computing device so fast. the reason phones and tablets can be swapped so fast because pcs are acting as a stable base. arm might try to counter that with cloud services but that has it's disadvantages. when someone's pc is down, s/he can call customer service or a professional or perform some d.i.y. repair (not possible or very very difficult with highly integrated devices). but when cloud is down, everyone dependent on the cloud is screwed until services come back online. also you need rather high speed for up/downloading (and the cost to go with it).
the only advantage cloud offers is collaboration, team projects etc. that's not attractive to home users, more suitable for corporate/office use (even better with own cloud system).
 


This shows that you are so desperate trying to prove you are right, that you don't even read your own sources. To add to the excellent answer of the other poster, I will say that this research grant is for interconnects. Also pay attention to how AMD mentions HSA in the press release:

Also, as founding members of the Heterogeneous System Architecture Foundation, we are offering a mechanism to share our insights to benefit the industry-wide advancement of standard, open systems.

You can continue negating reality, but Opteron are outdated for HPC. According to last top500 list revealed this week, more than 82% of the supercomputers on the list use Xeon processors, a 9% use Opteron. And they moving out: e.g., Cray has moved from Opteron to Xeon for new (faster) HPC clusters.

AMD plans to recover HPC crowd don't rely on Opteron, because Opteron are replaced (pay attention to AMD server 2014 roadmap). And Warsaw replacement is, according to AMD, only for legacy customers.

AMD plans to recover HPC crowd rely on... APUs. I am not the only who think that

http://techreport.com/news/24973/berlin-warsaw-are-the-future-of-amd-x86-server-lineup

http://semiaccurate.com/2013/06/17/amd-announces-seattle-berlin-and-warsaw-for-servers/

http://www.anandtech.com/show/7079/amd-evolving-fast-to-survive-in-the-server-market-jungle-/4
 


First, I know someone with expertise on image editing (e.g. she did an image that is being used in two famous music CD covers) and she used both Photoshop and GIMP. And guess what in last update she dropped Photoshop and now only uses GIMP. For what she makes, she tell me that is more powerful than Photoshop. It is the contrary for others, I know.

But this is not the point. The point is not what program is better. The point is that Adobe could port Photoshop to ARM, without any problem. They are not doing it today, because ARM is not in the 80% of desktops and workstations.today.

Some people here would stop thinking how if x86 had some 'magic' that makes programs to run only in them.

I spend time repeating and repeating and repeating that ARM will not take the desktop tomorrow neither the next day, but it will take more time (several years). But still I am replied with "it would take years..." Why?

People will move to ARM desktops, about the same as moved to ARM tablets/phones and the same as they will be moving to HPC/servers.

Hardware makers are working closely with software houses. The Wintel monopoly is broken. AMD has been working with game developers and developing MANTLE before presenting the new GCN hardware. AMD is working in HSA software support before the first HSA APU is in the street.

ARM doesn't plan to introduce ARM in HPC/servers/desktop/laptop without software prepared before.

Nvidia has already ported CUDA to ARM, before their HPC SoC is ready, for people starting to port and test.

I spend time repeating and repeating and repeating that ARM will not fully replace x86 and that x86 will remain as niche. But still I am replied with "ARM will not fully replace..." Why?
 


^^^ Fixed it for you :lol:
 
"People will move to ARM desktops"
Is there even a Arm desktop that is more powerful than a Celeron machine yet? Does common people even buy desktops new? Will the same software and printer drivers work on a arm system? Will crysis 5 be able to max out of a Arm machine? And finally people made a big problem when Vista came out because of software compatibility what about a Arm machine?
 
Not only that! You can't even say that ARM is more efficient than x86. After all, one cannot evaluate the efficiency of an architecture by comparing the power consumption of a setup that includes more than the architecture (there are many other things in a computer beyond ARM or x86 cores) and that is made in a very different process.
 
DDR4 memory won't show up in PCs, tablets until 2015
http://www.pcworld.com/article/2066756/ddr4-memory-wont-show-up-in-pcs-tablets-until-2015.html
points to note:
■ aimed at higher perf/watt i.e. power efficiency. clueless people who disregard power efficiency should ignore this.
■ will first appear in servers.
■ amd will introduce ddr4 support on servers first.
■ mainstream availability/ price drop/ market penetration not until 2015-late 2015.
users should expect a new socket(s) in amd's lineups in 2015. amd never said which opterons will receive ddr4 support first though. these are analysts' projections.
 


I do agree GIMP is not bad but it's not going to be easy to get people to switch.

The thing is that ARM will never be a majority on desktop, workstation, and mobile workstation and laptops.

Your comparison between the shift from ARM on tablets/phones are not the same as the markets I'm mentioning. There were no mobile phones which offered x86 compatibility before the advent of ARM.

The dominant OS on mobile before 2010 was Symbian. How many people are going to miss all those Symbian applications when they move to Android, iOS, or WP8?

And how many people would have applications they would miss giving up Windows and any OS that has Windows compatibility (WINE, DARWINE, etc)? My guess is a lot.

I don't even agree with you that the Wintel monopoly is crumbling.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Usage_share_of_operating_systems

If anything these ARM chips are being built to serve a different purpose than x86 chips, and they're finding success by doing what x86 doesn't. It's not meant to replace it and it never will on DT and laptop.

But as I've said it will have a home on tablets and phones forever and x86 won't go anywhere there. Classic x86 applications are useless on that form factor, and x86 has the same problem ARM has on DT where there's not as much software (and yes I'm pretty sure Android VM works on x86 just fine).

ARM will do fine in HPC because those types of folks are running fully custom software stacks that they can do what they please with. Recompiling when you have source code makes it possible, but it's not something people want to do.

For a real world example of people not wanting to go through hoops to recompile things, compare the popularity of distributions like Linux From Scratch and Gentoo to Ubuntu and variants of it (or even Debian and all variants, which all variants of Ubuntu are).

AMD would have a chance of pushing ARM on DT and laptop if they could do like Loongson and implement some x86 instructions for backwards compatibility but they aren't, they're just licensing cores.

ARM's problem when competing with x86 in markets where x86 still dominates is an extremely common problem for hardware that doesn't have software to back it up and the most current example I can think of off the top of my head is Wii U.

It is a good innovative system and people would argue that it's better than xbone and PS4, but it doesn't have that many games. Even with Nintendo releasing a few killer pieces of software (like you're implying ARM will somehow do when they make their giant push for ARM DT) it's still not going to be enough to drag people away from CoD/Halo/Killzone and the vast libraries on Xbox 360 and PS3. Nintendo is only holding on by the fact that it basically has fans and ARM has no consumer level fans for that to work.

Curiously enough ARM DT would suffer the same problem that Ouya console suffers. People look at it and think it's a great idea until they actually go to buy one and run around going "where's COD/Mario/Killzone/Battlefield/etc"

And the same situation will happen with ARM on DT and laptop no matter how much software ARM somehow manages to bring with it.

Of course I think a simpler example of why ARM won't go anywhere on DT and Laptop is comparing Windows RT to Windows 8. Windows 8 is not doing that well but Windows RT is abysmal. Care to guess why?

ARM will stay in mobile like Phones/Tablets, HPC where clients are using open source and can recompile, and in other closed ecosystems (Apple, Smartwhatevers like SmartTVs, SmartFridges, etc).

By suggesting that ARM will win in DT and laptops for actually doing things is suggesting that ARM will replace those products with x86 in them by not being able to do the things that people who buy x86 products buy them for.

GIMP is good and can replace Photoshop, but can you replace all the 3d modelling software? Software like FL Studio, Pro Tools, etc?

Adobe Creative Suite alone is an impossible task for open source to tackle in the next few years and that's not including Autodesk and tons of other companies that make industry standard software.

And lets not even touch on the subject of games again. Would you trade all the games you can play on PC for all the games in Tegra Zone and Google Play + a few titles that get ARM ports?
 


Nope. First, the entire Opteron line is replaced the next year. It is difficult that AMD is introducing DDR4 support in an outdated product.

However, AMD will begin supporting DDR4 with the Hierofalcon SoC

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DDR4_SDRAM#Implementations

And do you know what AMD server chip uses the same cores than HieroFalcon? Seattle.
 
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