News AMD, NVIDIA Shut Out as Intel Eyes $52 Billion CHIPS Act Windfall

[digitalgriffin]

Intel is playing poker. They wouldn't dare not build new fabs. They need to, to keep up with TSMC.

TSMC is a leading fab. Their technology is needed here in the USA where it can't be captured or controlled by hostile foreign entities. While it's not supporting an American company directly, the loss of TSMC as a supplier would have devastating effects to the economy as a whole. It's a matter of national economic security. It's also in TSMC's best interest to build fabs outside Taiwan as this makes Taiwan less strategically interesting.

Intel is just not the leading edge fab wise, and you don't want an inferior technology with a sketchy past to have a monopoly. And intel is a very healthy company with deep coffers. They don't need the help.

 

[JeffreyP55]

Back in the day the foundries were located in the silicon valley. San Jose Santa Clara where I lived. Then the CPU's all the sudden magically were produced in countries where employees were paid pennies on the dollar. Things haven't changed much. Just ask Apple. US needs to get a handle on production once again. Will the items be even more expensive then they are now? You better believe! However no worries about shortages from China and other parts east.

 

[kjfatl]

Most of the low-tech jobs like attaching wires to IC's and loading the IC's on a tester one-by-one no longer exist. These "low tech jobs" are now highly automated facilities. Do you think we have people in Indonesia small tweezers and tiny soldering irons to mount the 1700 or so balls on the bottom of a BGA chip? For the short run, costs will go up because we no longer have the technology to package IC's in the US in volume. We no longer have volume wafer production in the US, and most of the chemicals will have to be imported. We could save money and tell Intel and Global foundries to shut down and buy everything from Taiwan and Korea. This would save 2-3% on the price of your next phone and PC as we prepare to buy the next generation products engineered and manufactured in China.

Intel is playing Poker against a player who has stacked the deck and removed a few cards. The Chips Bill intends to make it so Intel, Global Foundries and TI have a chance. If the US does not support them, expect their next mega-fab to be in Europe or Austraila.

 

[jkflipflop98]

Intel is playing poker. They wouldn't dare not build new fabs. They need to, to keep up with TSMC.

TSMC is a leading fab. Their technology is needed here in the USA where it can't be captured or controlled by hostile foreign entities. While it's not supporting an American company directly, the loss of TSMC as a supplier would have devastating effects to the economy as a whole. It's a matter of national economic security. It's also in TSMC's best interest to build fabs outside Taiwan as this makes Taiwan less strategically interesting.

Intel is just not the leading edge fab wise, and you don't want an inferior technology with a sketchy past to have a monopoly. And intel is a very healthy company with deep coffers. They don't need the help.

Then all those fabs and jobs go to Germany. Where they will help pay the bills.

 

[digitalgriffin]

Then all those fabs and jobs go to Germany. Where they will help pay the bills.

Fine by me.

 

[kjfatl]

Then all those fabs and jobs go to Germany. Where they will help pay the bills.

I guess I see this from a different light knowing something about the industry. The $52 billion investment by the federal government is likely to result is an over $500 billion payback in federal, state and local taxes in the US. I like lower unemployment, lower taxes , etc.

It's rare to get 99 senators to agree on a bill. The house democrats are also for it, they just see the bill as a way to push through other items that are relatively unpopular.

 

[spongiemaster]

Welcome to the USA.

Not welcome to the USA.

Our bombs are preparing their lands by creating freedom holes where we can plant the seeds of democracy.

Welcome to freedom and democracy.

 

[JeffreyP55]

Most of the low-tech jobs like attaching wires to IC's and loading the IC's on a tester one-by-one no longer exist. These "low tech jobs" are now highly automated facilities. Do you think we have people in Indonesia small tweezers and tiny soldering irons to mount the 1700 or so balls on the bottom of a BGA chip? For the short run, costs will go up because we no longer have the technology to package IC's in the US in volume. We no longer have volume wafer production in the US, and most of the chemicals will have to be imported. We could save money and tell Intel and Global foundries to shut down and buy everything from Taiwan and Korea. This would save 2-3% on the price of your next phone and PC as we prepare to buy the next generation products engineered and manufactured in China.

Intel is playing Poker against a player who has stacked the deck and removed a few cards. The Chips Bill intends to make it so Intel, Global Foundries and TI have a chance. If the US does not support them, expect their next mega-fab to be in Europe or Austraila.

Not welcome to the USA.

Our bombs are preparing their lands by creating freedom holes where we can plant the seeds of democracy.

Welcome to freedom and democracy.

The USA has been a democracy for 246 years. Escaping the tyranny and oppression of England. "No taxation without representation."

 

[Pleiades]

Your definition of "democracy" looks laughable from overseas; not that you care of course LOL (and yes, "England's" is even more ludicrous with its House of Lords and FPTP voting)...

 

[KyaraM]

I guess if AMD and Nvidia want a piece off the cake, they need to start producing their own chips in their own fabs. Of course the big ones profit most from laws like this. Did you guys sleep the past decades or something? This is nothing new.

Compare Intel vs AMD campaign spending and you'll see why that is.

Here's Intel's spending, interesting that they donated to both Joe Biden and Donald Trump, who does that??? Why donate to both candidates unless you don't care who wins, only that they'll remember who gave you all that money? Obviously for favors and influence like this! https://www.opensecrets.org/orgs/intel-corp/summary?id=D000000804

Here's AMD's spending it's very little comparatively: https://www.opensecrets.org/orgs/advanced-micro-devices/summary?id=D000023765

Same with Nvidia, they spend comparatively very little: https://www.opensecrets.org/orgs/nvidia-corp/summary?id=D000036303

That is called "capitalism". Look it up, it's a nightmare for anyone not a mega-corp. Not that most people can actually comprehend that, though... doesn't help that US democracy isn't worth the paper its laws are printed on.

Intel is playing poker. They wouldn't dare not build new fabs. They need to, to keep up with TSMC.

TSMC is a leading fab. Their technology is needed here in the USA where it can't be captured or controlled by hostile foreign entities. While it's not supporting an American company directly, the loss of TSMC as a supplier would have devastating effects to the economy as a whole. It's a matter of national economic security. It's also in TSMC's best interest to build fabs outside Taiwan as this makes Taiwan less strategically interesting.

Intel is just not the leading edge fab wise, and you don't want an inferior technology with a sketchy past to have a monopoly. And intel is a very healthy company with deep coffers. They don't need the help.

And TSMC isn't a very healthy company with deep coffers, somehow? I was under the impression they were as big as Intel in the fabs department. Also, countries will always try to improve their own businesses first, doesn't matter much who is perceived as better or worse. That's just how it is. Besides, if you never fund your own research, you will ne forever dependent on other people, in their minds. By that logic, it makes a lot of sense.

Then all those fabs and jobs go to Germany. Where they will help pay the bills.

We are always happy about more jobs and taxes. And it's not as if they aren't coming here already... the Magdeburg site is confirmed. The only question is the size it seems. Also, I don't see what speaks against Germany as a site at all. It's save, it's an allied country, whatever is the issue?

 

[JeffreyP55]

Your definition of "democracy" looks laughable from overseas; not that you care of course LOL (and yes, "England's" is even more ludicrous with its House of Lords and FPTP voting)...

If it wasn't for my country setting the presedent for democracy where would you be now? USA made the template. Whatever you think about the USA is silly. My country will always be a democracy. If you live in the UK I hope you enjoy paying taxes for the Monarchy's pomp and circumstance . God save the Queen.

 

[heickel.ramadhan]

I mean US goverment supporting US company to create more manufacturing and jobs on US is not really strange. any goverment probably doing the same as they prioritzie domestic intrest over foreign company.

Even if TSMC invest on US and make some here, at the end they're taiwanesee company, even if they operate at global scale it doesn't changes that most of the company are filled from people from taiwan.

it's not weird for US gov prefer domestic company such as Intel,

 

[KyaraM]

If it wasn't for my country setting the presedent for democracy where would you be now? USA made the template. Whatever you think about the USA is silly. My country will always be a democracy. If you live in the UK I hope you enjoy paying taxes for the Monarchy's pomp and circumstance . God save the Queen.

LMAO

The first ever (documented) democracy was ancient Greece, which, btw, also named the principle. Then came the Romans before they became a dictatorship/empire. And let's not forget the British Magna Carta and its importance for the US, or the British parliament with the house of commons and house of lords that loooong predates the US.

 

[JeffreyP55]

LMAO

The first ever (documented) democracy was ancient Greece, which, btw, also named the principle. Then came the Romans before they became a dictatorship/empire. And let's not forget the British Magna Carta and its importance for the US, or the British parliament with the house of commons and house of lords that loooong predates the US.

Lose it. Don't go off on some tangent. We are a democracy if you like it or not.

 

[KyaraM]

Lose it. Don't go off on some tangent. We are a democracy if you like it or not.

I never said it's not, though I do question how democratic the choice between party A and party B with essentially the same politics really are. Which is anothwr can of worms. You were the one starting this, btw...

 

[JeffreyP55]

I never said it's not, though I do question how democratic the choice between party A and party B with essentially the same politics really are. Which is anothwr can of worms. You were the one starting this, btw...

No, the philosophy between the Democrats and Republicans are 180 apart. Quite a difference if you dare go where rhetoric rules the land. Be my guest. It can be confusing at times. There are more than 2 parties. The independents are also rans in 3rd place are too radical for most. conservative citizens. Bernie Sanders runs as a independent when he can't secure enough democratic support.

 

[KyaraM]

No, the philosophy between the Democrats and Republicans are 180 apart. Quite a difference if you dare go where rhetoric rules the land. Be my guest. It can be confusing at times.

Thank you for the laugh.

 

[digitalgriffin]

And TSMC isn't a very healthy company with deep coffers, somehow? I was under the impression they were as big as Intel in the fabs department. Also, countries will always try to improve their own businesses first, doesn't matter much who is perceived as better or worse. That's just how it is. Besides, if you never fund your own research, you will ne forever dependent on other people, in their minds. By that logic, it makes a lot of sense.

I'm not arguing otherwise. But is the US Defense and Economy better with Intel as a monopoly with inferior tech?

A tremendous amount of our devices come from Taiwan. You can kiss a lot of your smart phones, media, memory, NAND, and networking chips goodbye if we lose Taiwan .

 

[KyaraM]

I'm not arguing otherwise. But is the US Defense and Economy better with Intel as a monopoly with inferior tech?

The military is overblown and wasteful anyways. You are creating weapons that will murder anyone from afar no matter if they actually did something bad or not, with or without Intel involvement. None of this is actually for US security, but for oppression and resources. Heck, if some of those weapons would blow up before they can do any harm, that would actually be a plus. Not that it would come to that. No matter your opinion, Intel makes rather good tech, unless you want to ignore all the evidence to the contrary. Plus, the money in the fabs act would be wasted on companies that don't have fabs. Besides. As long as spending isn't tightly regulated, it matter jack who gets the money, it will end up in the pockets of the execs anyways. Who gets it doesn't really matter.

 

[spongiemaster]

I'm not arguing otherwise. But is the US Defense and Economy better with Intel as a monopoly with inferior tech?

So which fabs aren't currently inferior to TSMC? People act like Intel has fallen to 10th in the technology race or something. They're still #2 on the planet and it looks like they may be getting their act together again and could be competing for #1 in the next couple of years.

A tremendous amount of our devices come from Taiwan. You can kiss a lot of your smart phones, media, memory, NAND, and networking chips goodbye if we lose Taiwan .

Correct. So what are the options? Maintain the status quo where we are dependent on a foreign country or the US government builds their own fabs or they assist the only US company that has the capability to compete with TSMC.

 

[digitalgriffin]

So which fabs aren't currently inferior to TSMC? People act like Intel has fallen to 10th in the technology race or something. They're still #2 on the planet and it looks like they may be getting their act together again and could be competing for #1 in the next couple of years.


Correct. So what are the options? Maintain the status quo where we are dependent on a foreign country or the US government builds their own fabs or they assist the only US company that has the capability to compete with TSMC.

Switching Fabs isn't like switching gasoline suppliers. Each fab has specific toolkits-libraries used to design chips. Basically a switch from lets say Samsung to TSMC is significant. It's not just copying the photomask layers. So even IF Intel did have the process nodes and capacity, a switch over would not be immediately possible. It could take years. Then you have a problem of competition. Imagine what would happen if Intel only made ARC GPUs, or Intel Modems, or Intel CPUs. It would be a cluster F for the public as a whole.

The option is to make TSMC see their interest lies in outsourcing production. It makes them less strategically interesting. It might be better for keeping trade secrets as well. So bribing with manufacturing incentives and logic is important.

The day China goes after Taiwan, I'm dumping a significant portion of my expendable stock into INTL and Samsung and shorting Apple, NVIDIA, MediaTek/Realtek, and AMD.

 

[spongiemaster]

Switching Fabs isn't like switching gasoline suppliers. Each fab has specific toolkits-libraries used to design chips. Basically a switch from lets say Samsung to TSMC is significant. It's not just copying the photomask layers. So even IF Intel did have the process nodes and capacity, a switch over would not be immediately possible. It could take years. Then you have a problem of competition. Imagine what would happen if Intel only made ARC GPUs, or Intel Modems, or Intel CPUs. It would be a cluster F for the public as a whole.

Yes, nothing in the fab industry is quick or easy. However, which is easier, Intel upgrading/modifying existing fabs and making use of their established suppliers and work force or Nvidia entering the fab business and starting from scratch? One route is going to be a lot cheaper and easier. Let's see if you can figure out which.

One of Intel's major new initiatives is their entering into third party chip manufacturing. Going to be pretty unsuccessful if they only manufacture their own chips. So don't understand where you're going with the last point.

 

[jkflipflop98]

I'm not arguing otherwise. But is the US Defense and Economy better with Intel as a monopoly with inferior tech?

A tremendous amount of our devices come from Taiwan. You can kiss a lot of your smart phones, media, memory, NAND, and networking chips goodbye if we lose Taiwan .

You should probably cool it with the Chicken Little act. It's not like TSMC is so far out in the lead they have alien technology. Intel has been the dominant force in the industry for over 60 years. A few years of missteps and you're ready to write them off. Silly.

 

[digitalgriffin]

Yes, nothing in the fab industry is quick or easy. However, which is easier, Intel upgrading/modifying existing fabs and making use of their established suppliers and work force or Nvidia entering the fab business and starting from scratch? One route is going to be a lot cheaper and easier. Let's see if you can figure out which.

One of Intel's major new initiatives is their entering into third party chip manufacturing. Going to be pretty unsuccessful if they only manufacture their own chips. So don't understand where you're going with the last point.

It would not be in Intel's best interest to upgrade their facilities to support NVIDIA/AMD. Intel has never played nice. You know this, I know this. You assume just because they can, doesn't mean they would, because it becomes counter to their own interest of making the most profit and eliminating healthy competition by acquiring more market share.

 

[digitalgriffin]

You should probably cool it with the Chicken Little act. It's not like TSMC is so far out in the lead they have alien technology. Intel has been the dominant force in the industry for over 60 years. A few years of missteps and you're ready to write them off. Silly.

Newspapers have been a dominant force in the industry of delivering news for over 100 years. Sears has been a dominant force in mail order catalog business for over 100 years.

It's been nothing but missteps by Intel since Ivy Bridge. Their drive to innovate simply died. Why? Because they were a monopoly. This is why competition is good. Like the US car industry in the early 80's, a kick in your complacency is a good thing.

Now as to your chicken little argument. Do you have the numbers and percentage of chips that come out of TSMC Taiwan? Now break that down my leading edge fabs 14nm and below. A 10% disruption alone is enough to cause massive shortages. (An easier comparison would be wafer counts) And TSMC supplies considerably more than this. 10,000 300mm wafers per month 150,000/month 5nm wafers and 50,000 3nm wafers/month.

Even though intel is bigger, they can in no way replace that.

I don't give a rat's behind if it's built in USA, Mexico, Canada, or Germany. As long as it's safely outside China's hands I'm okay with that.

And to be honest Intel doesn't need the money either. They are hardly struggling. This is just a typical greedy handout to fatten bottom lines.

You would think a couple nm difference shouldn't make a difference. It does. The implications could be bigger than you realize.

The point is to shore up national security and economic interest.