AMD is being greedy at this point and their profit margin is even higher than Apple. Tech TechPotato's channel says that it cost $69 to produce a 7950x. The 9000 cpu's will definitely cost more and are geared towards datacenters so their profit margins are even higher than consumer cpu's. So the consumer cpu's will get last dibs.
Personally, I'm not into the latest and greatest hype train. I just upgraded to a Ryzen 5800x and I am happy with it. I wouldn't be surprised that it cost about $40 or less to make that cpu.
Well, two very important things you my need to think a bit harder on:
1.- Greed.
If a Company is not "greedy" then they'd be a charity or non-profit organization. So, under that token, don't kid yourself: AMD, Intel and nVidia are all the same animal. The only difference is the level of success they have. And this is true with any other Company out there. So, think a bit more about the "greedy" moniker.
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2.- BOM Costs
His napkin math could may be very real, but the cost of the materials is just one part of the whole chain that makes the full product. Think about chain of supply from build/assembly to each distributor/seller, then the marketing (leaving the quality of it outside
) and even additional costs not factored into his initial analysis which are R&D related.
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The value proposition of each CPU is very personal. AMD says "I think this is how much you value this" and, in the case of Zen5's launch, we all said "well, Zen4 is not really far behind and real prices are really low with no problem with supply, so no thanks". And voilá: price drops. Now the value proposition is better and, maybe, will sway more pees into buying Zen5 now. The new 3D chips will be judged under a very similar umbrella, hence my comment.
Overall, I don't think you're wrong, but I think having some additional context will put your thoughts into a better place and maybe validate them as well? Well, that's what I think at least. As I said, I don't think you're wrong.
Regards.