I’m saying they wouldn’t use ARM because chips like snapdragons aren’t good enough for the purpose. They’re fine for smartphones and at a push low power laptops. They’re not at the level of AS or even close to it at this point in time. AMD are further behind. It would take years of development and pushing lower end chips into portable devices before they could launch a higher end SKU. It took Apple a decade of development, billions of devices and vertical integration at a scale no one else on the industry has to get where they are. Qualcomm have had around the same amount of time but without the integration have to effectively lie to make a comparison. Add in to the fact you’re asking game devs to write for ARM now too because as great as proton and wine are they’re not perfect enough for a console demographic.
Microsoft don’t make their own chips and they don’t make technology specifically for their own chips. They have to outsource it to a 3rd party and use existing technologies and even then Microsoft for ARM runs better through a VM and a translation layer on Apple silicon than it runs on Microsoft’s own dev kit.
Ok, that's fair to point out and I agree.
So the question I have for you is: do they really need an M1 competitor for a portable device or even a console? (performance and power level characteristics)
The complexity of the M1 (EDIT: M-line, I should say) and size, makes it rather expensive to produce and, like you said, a lot of R&D behind it, but when you look at it from a "building blocks" perspective, it's not a real revolution on what it is; or at least, to me it is not. Hindsight 20/20 as always, but it's not like you can't get close to its performance with the right building blocks. Or, said in another way, the M1 was designed with a specific type of workload in mind, so they just got rid of any baggage that they don't want. From what I understand, not everything is rosey in the Apple world from the software side due to this, as you also mention, there's still a lot of tooling which hasn't been properly migrated over, but should finally be ported correctly with MacOS 27 when they completely drop X86 support.
Taking into consideration that, #1, MS doesn't need a performance king in neither market and just hit a performance level that "feels" next gen to them (same rationale with the current console gen) and #2, they need to hit a budget within the division (tying this to the "XBox everywhere", means the HW has now officially become secondary, if not tertiary, to their strategy), so overly complex SoC, it won't be, no matter how they source it.
You only have to look at their official numbers to know that it's a very small amount of money, all margin or next to no margin.
It's in their gaming division together with GPUs , they made a total of 647mil in revenue in q1 2025 so including the GPUs...
And that turned into 496mil operating income BUT including client so desktop CPUs...
A total of 2,941 turned into 496, what is that something like 15% for consoles GPUs and CPUs all together ?
As I said, anything other than server is barely making any sense for them right now.
Bold part mine. Yes, you're not wrong in the accounting spreadsheet we get each quarter it's not a "big number", but if it wasn't relevant to them, or see it as worthwhile, they've be spinning off whatever division/group is in charge. Who knows, maybe you're right and AMD will announce they'll get rid of that division and sell it to Microsoft or Sony or whomever wants it since it doesn't produce "big numbers" for them. The fact they've been running that for years (AMD, through ATI, has been powering consolers for a lot of years now) means they see value/benefit on having it around and keep on doing it, independent on how our external analysis turns out to be.
Again, you could be spot on and it's 0% margin with small numbers, but they're still doing it. Being "zero margin", I'd have to assume, it's not. The truth is always somewhere in the middle of the extremes, so I don't think it's worth arguing more on this specific bit as the amount of available information on margins is, I'd say, non-existant for us. The specifics on the agreements with Sony and MS are hidden under secrecy, I'm sure.
Regards.