Progress has slowed down considerably since ~2010. CPU-wise, 1999 to 2009 is a 20-25X increase in processing power: 3-3.5X in clocks, 4X in core count, 1.6-2X in IPC. From 2009 to 2019, it is about 5X: 1.3X for clocks, 1.5X for IPC, 2X in core count, 1.3X for SMT2.Makes me wonder if 10 years later at 1080P we are far off from 10 years ago then think about 2009 vs 1999
I think your overestimating clocks but underestimating IPC; I wouldn't be shocked if IPC goes up by virtue of Intel putting out a new core design (if not a new architecture). Clocks are simply limited by thermals, and you aren't going to see the 5Ghz barrier breached for that reason alone.Progress has slowed down considerably since ~2010. CPU-wise, 1999 to 2009 is a 20-25X increase in processing power: 3-3.5X in clocks, 4X in core count, 1.6-2X in IPC. From 2009 to 2019, it is about 5X: 1.3X for clocks, 1.5X for IPC, 2X in core count, 1.3X for SMT2.
Over the next 10 years, I'm not expecting much over a 3X increase in mainstream ($150-300) CPU-power: 2X on cores, 1.1X from SMT4, 1.2X on clocks and an optimistic 1.2X on IPC.
hmm...if only someone on these forums argued that FP performance was the wrong thing for AMD to focus on. If only such a person existed!So crazy Amd changed so much in the past 10 years, we all remember them being seriously obsessed with APU's. Now they want to avoid the term 10 years later. FPU performance they were downplaying now they are doubling the compute power.
IPC is limited by how many opportunities the CPU has to parallelize instruction from a thread's execution stream. How much IPC is possible even on a theoretical basis with infinite execution resources is still limited by data dependencies and missed conditional branches. At some point, IPC will hit a brick wall and we're very close to that, just look at how AMD had to double L2 and L3 sizes, improve branch prediction, widen the architecture by 33%, all to achieve only a 10-12% IPC increase. Doubling transistor count mainly from doubling cache sizes to get only 10% more single-threaded performance out of Zen 2 isn't sustainable and being that much closer to the single-threaded IPC brick wall means even more effort will be necessary for every additional IPC inch. (Yes, I know AMD says 15%, but those are multi-threaded benchmarks, meaning that part of the IPC gains come from SMT having a wider back-end to fill. The single-threaded IPC that most games depend heavily on won't benefit from this anywhere near as much.)I think your overestimating clocks but underestimating IPC; I wouldn't be shocked if IPC goes up by virtue of Intel putting out a new core design (if not a new architecture).
Not in the mainstream. At the moment, the Cortex A65E (automotive) is the first and only SMT ARM core design. Give ARM a few more years to run into all the same IPC brick walls as everyone else, then they'll go SMT across most of the product stack as a more power-efficient way of getting more work done per clock per core.Wow that's cool! Are there ARM chips that run SMT?
That's where i was getting at back in 2009 we had the I7 965 and a Radeon 5870 as the top products and today which aged better?I think your overestimating clocks but underestimating IPC; I wouldn't be shocked if IPC goes up by virtue of Intel putting out a new core design (if not a new architecture). Clocks are simply limited by thermals, and you aren't going to see the 5Ghz barrier breached for that reason alone.
But on the whole, I wouldn't expect much farther performance gains. Hell, I wouldn't be shocked if CPUs today are still considered viable a decade from now; I really think we're heading for a performance cliff.
Intel Ice Lake performance leaks out – showing up AMD Ryzen
A few things about the test...
There are no plans for desktop Icelake on Intel's leaked roadmaps. In all likelihood, if there ever are desktop Icelake parts, they will be just like Broadwell-DT parts: never planned to reach the desktop and nearly impossible to get before the next-gen after it launches once Intel did decide to announce the desktop variants, making it almost completely irrelevant for desktop.Ice lake what is that 6+ months away before desktop parts are out or longer?
I heard that. It's just a rumor right now, but it will certainly help their CPU sales.Intel to slash prices up to 15%. Wonder what outcome it might achieve for Intel.
Until around Core2's launch where AMD and Intel were in periodic price wars, 30+% price cuts happened nearly every year if not twice a year in some cases.Intel doesn't like to cut price on existing chips
If AMD is starting to eat into OEM orders and Intel has sorted out its shortage issues, then Intel may be seeing some surplus inventory. There are no miracles to mitigating surplus stock, you either reduce production or lower prices to stimulate demand and make the surplus go away. Extra manufacturing capacity does you no good if the extra chips only end up hogging warehouse space.Intel dropping prices right after "maybe" fixing their shortage issue doesn't make a lot of sense to me, and all their CPU's will sell to oem's and us a smaller market.
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