Dell Forecasts Death of PC in Latest SEC Filing

[tntom]

The problem is that transitionally most people who bought PCs really didn't need them! It was the equivalent of giving grandma a tractor-trailer to go shopping.

My grandpa, grandma, father and mother do not need a traditional PC. Because they are never going to do pro-photo editing, pro-CAD, software development, play a FPS game, pro video editing or transcode video codecs. And if they did, there is an oversimplified app for it, which performs well within their expectations.

It is simply a market correction as people are aware that a simpler cheaper device fills all their needs. Tom's Hardware years ago was filled with articles about building low powered, simple, internet surfing only PCs. Many of those articles even questioned whether grandpa needed Windows or a simple custom dumbed down Linux interface would suffice.

Yes, putting a super computer (full workstation) into grandma's hands has now died. But she never needed or knew how to use all of its features anyway.

 

[jobukakk]

Can anyone answer to my question - if PC dies, on what those "wonderful" apps for iOS, Android, WP, BB etc will be made? Will be taken from air and automagically appear on marketplaces? Same goes for webpages, console games, software for servers, even cars etc. Every little piece of software and webapp we use in our everyday life is made - oh the surprise - on PC.

 

[Byttorr]

I think the main thing is that PC hardware performance is advancing faster than the needs of "average" PC users. While those of us that crave or need the power, typical users will delay longer in upgrading as compared to the past and that is the pain they are feeling. Most people can still check their email, watch Netflix, and even run their small business on very outdated hardware which has been stable for them(yes with Windows), so they don't understand why they should upgrade. Can you really blame them?

There will always be the market for those of us that want, or need the power, but even today's cheap hardware is leaps and bounds over what most people need for usual day to day computer use. Each market is different, and I would venture to guess that those looking for bleeding edge performance aren't going to buy a Dell. That leaves only those who are going to be slow to upgrade their current machine.

 

[jdwii]

Of course they do their out

 

[InvalidError]

[citation][nom]jobukakk[/nom]Can anyone answer to my question - if PC dies, on what those "wonderful" apps for iOS, Android, WP, BB etc will be made?[/citation]
On x86-based tablet/AiOs running the same OSes and applications typical desktops/laptops run today.

PCs are not going to disappear but the traditional tower on the other hand definitely is on its way out and the traditional laptop may follow a few years later. Once of Intel's concept-PCs this year was a 24" LCD with rear-mounted ITX motherboard... and there have also been some tablet-LCD hybrids showcased at IDF/CES... looks like all-in-ones are coming back in tablet form.

And before you laugh all-in-ones off due to no internal expansion, keep in mind that most people have zero expansion cards in their PCs so internal expansion is a non-issue. For higher-end uses, today's AiOs have one thing AiOs from the past didn't have: more bandwidth over USB3 and Thunderbolt than PCI2.1/PCI-X could ever deliver, so external expansion is more viable than ever.

 

[diddo]

Lenovo does not think so.
Maybe because they sell machines with Windows 7 installed by default...

 

[Belardo]

I would really like to see MORE PC cases that look great, well made that are for 2 & 4 slot motherboards. Very few people actually need a full case.

 

[spentshells]

New headline dell again shows how out of touch with consumers they are,

 

[tadej petric]

custom enthusiast PC build = lasts 4-6 years (maybe longer)

Dell built PC = last 2-3 years (hdd dead in the first year)

This is the PC death they are referring too.

I'd be surprised if a Dell build lasted two years. They maybe have a shelf life of about 1 1/2 years tops before an upgrade is needed and even then it's limited with proprietary form factors and watered down motherboards.

Ive got a dell. Never had to fix anything and its 10 years old (bit more). But about upgrade is for sure. Best game that runs normally on my PC is GTA 3/vc. BTW its Optiplex gx 240 with original parts.

 

[janetonly42]

Dell, your reputation has caught up with, thas your problem. After years of selling crap that breaks way to early people have finally caught on and that is why you are failing.

 

[janetonly42]

[citation][nom]diddo[/nom]Lenovo does not think so.Maybe because they sell machines with Windows 7 installed by default...[/citation]
Well MS did give Dell a bunch of $ so Dell will push the crap 8 OS for MS.

 

[garrick]

The PC is not dying as some would have you believe. It's just that hardware has advanced to such a level that you don't need to upgrade to take advantage of the latest OS's.
Unless Windows comes out with a very resource intensive OS most people will see no need to go out and replace their PC if all they do is internet browsing and the occasional game.
People are just keeping their PC's much longer than they used to.

 

[InvalidError]

[citation][nom]nvidiamd[/nom]pc sales decline because people learned to do their shit![/citation]
I think the biggest factor by far is that for ~80% of people, their 3-4 years old PCs still feel perfectly adequate, so no hurry to upgrade. I consider my computing requirements to be a few notches above average and was still generally happy with my 4 years old C2D-E8400 until I needed to upgrade to 16GB RAM.

Unless there is a major breakthrough in mainstream killer apps to increase normal people's computing requirements, whatever they buy today will be good enough for the next 5+ years unless it blows up first.

 

[InvalidError]

[citation][nom]nvidiamd[/nom]pc sales decline because people learned to do their shit![/citation]
I think the biggest factor by far is that for ~80% of people, their 3-4 years old PCs still feel perfectly adequate, so no hurry to upgrade. I consider my computing requirements to be a few notches above average and was still generally happy with my 4 years old C2D-E8400 until I needed to upgrade to 16GB RAM.

Unless there is a major breakthrough in mainstream killer apps to increase normal people's computing requirements, whatever they buy today will be good enough for the next 5+ years unless it blows up first.

The "killer app" that broke my P4-Northwood and forced me to upgrade to C2D was 720p/h264... the 3GHz NW was just shy from fast enough to play those properly. Today, we take 1080p for granted on just about any platform and any form factor.

 

[n1tr0]

If the PC dies, it's Dell's fault (along with the other big manufacturers) ! They've sat on their butts and pumped out nothing but crap for more than a decade. I remember buying a 15" Dell notebook in 2001 with a 1600x1200 pixel display (that's a 14" modern equivalent) and 12 years later they're trying to tell me 1366x768 is HD ! Same with processors, Intel's actually regressing, with many of the i7 laptop processors now being only dual core when a couple years ago we could count on that branding to be a minimum 4 physical cores. Maximum clock speeds haven't risen in 5 or 6 years...
Meanwhile phones and tablets have risen. Google and Apple both offer inexpensive tablets with display resolutions way beyond anything you can buy in a laptop, and many phones with little tiny displays are matching the best laptop display resolutions, but on a 5" screen. Just look at the specs of the new Samsung GS4 with 8 processor cores (possibly dumbed down to 4 for the US market), graphics acceleration, 1920x1080 touch screen, wifi and cellular connectivity, 32/64GB SSD, all day battery life, 2GB ram (not as thrilled about that), weighs a quarter of a pound... basically all the specs that laptop drool-worthy.
The PC makers have always said it costs more to make things smaller, yet even without subsidies, the premium smartphones cost less than a basic laptop. It's gluttony and sloth in the PC supply chain that's going to be the downfall of the PC businesses, not the lack of demand for computing power. Work still needs to get done, but with the higher costs for a decent laptop and the erosion of any performance differences, of course people are going to migrate to other devices.
Shame on you Dell !

 

[softplacetoland]

[citation][nom]kickmyjiminy[/nom]Up until the tablet/smartphone, most people used desktops as toys. Browsing the internet, playing low end games, watching videos, listening to music, and email are all things you can do easily without a desktop or laptop. People are using tablets the same way they've been using desktops, they just finally got the proper form factor with which to do it. There were people bragging about how fast of a processor they got, and how much memory they had, when all they were doing was playing spades online. Kind of like buying a hotrod for your 100 mile round trip commute to work.[/citation]

You made your comparison incomplete. Since you equalized desktop and hotrod it would be fair to equalize tablet/smartphones with compact class. That would put things in right order.

It's true that most of people today find tablets/smartphones good enough for what they need.
It's also true that until few years ago, before mobilemania, they haven't got appropriate class for their needs. Now they have. To them, desktop variants, at least anything above low end configurations, are really an overkill.

But it is not overkill to people who do more than just things you listed. They don't have to appologise for wanting and being able to do more with their machines. To those people tablets/smartphones are usualy choice too cramped.

Tablets/smartphones on one side and desktops/laptops above low end on another do not overlap each other's market. They all have their customers. Depending on demands and wishes.

So, to put one more thing in order. People who use a car to go to work wil buy compacts. People who need speed and power will go for hotrod.

[citation][nom]kickmyjiminy[/nom]Only exception is, the hotrod will attract more ladies than a desktop will.[/citation]

"Only exception is, the hotrod will attract more ladies than a COMPACT CAR will." In light of completed comparison, I fixed that for you.

 

[g-unit1111]

custom enthusiast PC build = lasts 4-6 years (maybe longer)

Dell built PC = last 2-3 years (hdd dead in the first year)

This is the PC death they are referring too.

I'd be surprised if a Dell build lasted two years. They maybe have a shelf life of about 1 1/2 years tops before an upgrade is needed and even then it's limited with proprietary form factors and watered down motherboards.

Ive got a dell. Never had to fix anything and its 10 years old (bit more). But about upgrade is for sure. Best game that runs normally on my PC is GTA 3/vc. BTW its Optiplex gx 240 with original parts.

Dell *USED* to make quality PCs and were pretty synonymous with that distinction, and garnered tons of industry awards for it. However that all changed about 2004 when they started manufacturing in China and gobbling up smaller, boutique PC vendors like Alienware and just became a bloated mess of a manufacturer. They're an example of a good business with a good business model that just became too bloated to exist.

If the PC dies, it's Dell's fault (along with the other big manufacturers) ! They've sat on their butts and pumped out nothing but crap for more than a decade. I remember buying a 15" Dell notebook in 2001 with a 1600x1200 pixel display (that's a 14" modern equivalent) and 12 years later they're trying to tell me 1366x768 is HD ! Same with processors, Intel's actually regressing, with many of the i7 laptop processors now being only dual core when a couple years ago we could count on that branding to be a minimum 4 physical cores. Maximum clock speeds haven't risen in 5 or 6 years...

That is what I was trying to say earlier - you put out junk hardware and nobody is going to buy it. I mean would you rather pay $800 for a pre built with a watered down BIOS and no chance of upgrading your hardware and a shelf life of only a couple of years? Or would you rather pay $800 for a system that's guaranteed to last more than five years with minimal (or no) upgrading? That's what's led to the slow death of pre-built manufacturers. It's not the PC itself, it's the lousy and horrible products they're churning out that nobody wants to buy, and they're just sitting on Costco shelves collecting dust.

 

[spentshells]

[citation][nom]nvidiamd[/nom]pc sales decline because people learned to do their shit![/citation]
I think the biggest factor by far is that for ~80% of people, their 3-4 years old PCs still feel perfectly adequate, so no hurry to upgrade. I consider my computing requirements to be a few notches above average and was still generally happy with my 4 years old C2D-E8400 until I needed to upgrade to 16GB RAM.

Unless there is a major breakthrough in mainstream killer apps to increase normal people's computing requirements, whatever they buy today will be good enough for the next 5+ years unless it blows up first.

The "killer app" that broke my P4-Northwood and forced me to upgrade to C2D was 720p/h264... the 3GHz NW was just shy from fast enough to play those properly. Today, we take 1080p for granted on just about any platform and any form factor.

i agree with this completely c2d/q ftw