Guesstimate of computers in 20 years

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i think computers dont have much more to go but in preattiness. And it that it still doesnt have much left. I think computers will need to get inovative, alot more confortable, use alot less Watts, bigger screens(they get cheaper to do), and alot more intergrated into the whole household...maybe thought.
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Computers have just begun. It's such a young technology that our grandchildren will wonder how we got by with only 4 core Conroes to sustain us. We are witnessing the teething stage of the life of the computer, not it's middle-age. They will never go away and they will get better all the time. When you say they have nowhere to go except in their aesthetic appeal I personally think that you are missing something. The ultimate computers are the ones you won't even notice. They will be in your clothes, in your wallet, in your couch and someday they will be in your body. The ultimate computer is not one that looks like the Venus de Milo or the Parthenon. It's the one that looks like a toothbrush because it is a toothbrush.
 
Your post calls for speculation - and a lot of it. We can make some certain assumptions however: Moore's "Law" (It isn't a law at all, or even a theory. It is in fact, a self fulfilling prophecy, nothing more.) will certainly continue in a modified form - we can expect PC performance, on average, to double every 2-3 years, stretched over a lengthy period.

(Please note, "Moore's Law" was only a simple observation that the cheapest of the manufacturing processes seemed to allow the production of twice as many components per square inch, about every 2 years or so.)

Nay-sayers about the continuation of the rapid doubling of power, speed and storage are simply mistaken. Sure transistors aren't going to last much longer; photolithography is a positively archaic method of building things. Self-assembling nanotechnology is the future, most likely.

Transistors will be replaced with something else - just as the abacus paradigm gave way to the slide rule paradigm, and the slide rule gave way to mechanical calculators (remember those? Hell, I do!) and valves. Valves gave way to transistors, which gave way to integrated circuits. The next paradigm probably exists already, but has yet to become a commercial reality. If you can pick the paradigm to replace transistors, then you will be a very welathy man (or woman) indeed.

What we can say for sure, is that storage media have a long way to go, and so does parallel processing, and quantuum computers.

The finest thinkers of our time place the first true passing of Turing's Test somewhere in the vicinity of 2020-2025 - and that's basically the last computer man will have much to do with the designing of. This because teh first generation of AIs will design the second generation, and the ssecond will design the third.

The flow on from this infinite feedback loop is that personal PCs (or what passes for them in 2025) will be approaching the intellectual capacity of a human person, but with the computing ability of a machine which is operating in the PetaaFlops range.

The best guesstimates are as follows:

2025 $1000 PC is about 1/10th as smart as a human.
2030 $1000 PC is as smart as a human
2040 $1000 PC is as smart as 1000 humans
2050 $1000 PC is smarter than all humans who have ever lived, combined.

Conveniently (or not, depending on your philosophical stand) 2050 is around the time of the Singularity. This is defined as the point at which the advances in technology become so rapid that it is impossible for an unenhanced human to follow.

With luck, the descendants of our first AIs will invite us along for the ride.

This seques into my assertion that I intend to live for at least 200,000 years and that if the universe is as exciting as I think it probably is, then I may hang around long enough to come back and watch our sun expand and consume the Earth in a couple of billion years. I probably won't still be posting here by then though - so you have something to look forward to. 😉

Get your Future on at http://www.kurzweilai.net
 
In 20 years we better have flying cars and personal quantum computers.... I dont care what else is invented.
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I seem to remember flying cars being predicted a few decades ago as being part of our present time. Still nothing on them, and can you imagine how crowded the sky would get?
 
i think computers dont have much more to go but in preattiness. And it that it still doesnt have much left. I think computers will need to get inovative, alot more confortable, use alot less Watts, bigger screens(they get cheaper to do), and alot more intergrated into the whole household...maybe thought.
Click to expand...

Computers have just begun. It's such a young technology that our grandchildren will wonder how we got by with only 4 core Conroes to sustain us. We are witnessing the teething stage of the life of the computer, not it's middle-age. They will never go away and they will get better all the time. When you say they have nowhere to go except in their aesthetic appeal I personally think that you are missing something. The ultimate computers are the ones you won't even notice. They will be in your clothes, in your wallet, in your couch and someday they will be in your body. The ultimate computer is not one that looks like the Venus de Milo or the Parthenon. It's the one that looks like a toothbrush because it is a toothbrush.

You never know:
"In recent news, AMD and INTEL have realized that computer technology has reached its limits and are closing shop. This move will lay of 1.5 million workers, but it was inevitable once both companies realized it was impossible to put more then 4 cores on one chip. The VP of AMD said in a news release earlier today:
'If only we could have put 5 cores inside our chip, we could have saved the company'"
 
I didn't read through all the posts, so please forgive me if somebody already pointed this out...

But the original posts is assuming a linear growth in computer technology. So if the first 20 years yeilded a 25,600 fold increase, the next 20 years should yeild another 25,600 fold increase.

This, however, is likely be an UNDERESTIMATION of the state of technology. Just as having a hammmer makes it easier to make better hammers, technology seems to keep feeding itself and growing faster than at a linear pace.
 
In 20 years we better have flying cars and personal quantum computers.... I dont care what else is invented.

And nobody is considering exponential growth.

Can anybody create a growth curve for the last 20 years and show the prediction path for the next 20 years?
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This isnt a 56 page thread yet... Idea Theif.


lol :) Hay Dasickninja, we need to make the longest thread in history... again.
 
i think computers dont have much more to go but in preattiness. And it that it still doesnt have much left. I think computers will need to get inovative, alot more confortable, use alot less Watts, bigger screens(they get cheaper to do), and alot more intergrated into the whole household...maybe thought.
Click to expand...

Computers have just begun. It's such a young technology that our grandchildren will wonder how we got by with only 4 core Conroes to sustain us. We are witnessing the teething stage of the life of the computer, not it's middle-age. They will never go away and they will get better all the time. When you say they have nowhere to go except in their aesthetic appeal I personally think that you are missing something. The ultimate computers are the ones you won't even notice. They will be in your clothes, in your wallet, in your couch and someday they will be in your body. The ultimate computer is not one that looks like the Venus de Milo or the Parthenon. It's the one that looks like a toothbrush because it is a toothbrush.

omfg did you quote me to say im wrong and then say the exact same thing i said? or you probably didnt understand what i said.
 
Current PC: 3.2ghz 64 bit core 2 duo
C128: 6510 8-bit CPU @ 1.023 MHz
New Vs Old: 25,600 times
20 years from now: 81,920Ghz equivalent (maybe 3.2Ghz with 51,200 cores)
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I don't see progress as linear - I see it as broadening. As circuits continue to get smaller, they need more advances in fabricating just to progress. Consider that Intel is moving to 45nm, then 32 then 22 - the technology just to be able to fabricate chips at this scale is astounding.
Also, the needs of a CPU are changing. In 20 years, I don't know if the computer will be as standalone as it is now. Probably will merge with the TV as HTPCs are starting to do right now. Therefore, a CPU will also contain the GPU, physics, decoder, DRM, et. cores.


Current PC: 2 gigs of ram
C128: 128kb
New Vs Old: 15,625 times
20 years from now: 31 terrabytes
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Possible, you never know what new tech is going to come out, and how much RAM will be required. Theoretically, if die shrinks continue afster than the amount of RAM a user needs, the RAM could be embedded in the cache on the CPU itself - not likely, as people will always want more memory than they need.


Current PC: 320 gig hd
C128: 170kb drive
New Vs Old: 1,882,352 times
20 Years from now: 600,000 terrabytes
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Likely, with holographic storage coming out this year, with plans on hitting 1.6TB by 2010, I think 600 Petabytes will be doable by 2026.

Current PC: 1920x1200(2,304,000 pixels) Display
C128: 320x200 (64,000 pixels) Display
New Vs Old: 36 times
20 Years from now: around 12,000x8,000 or 82,944,000 pixels
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Can you imagine the size of that monitor? 😱


Current PC: 113 Keys
C128: 90 Keys
New Vs Old: 1.26 times
20 Years from now: 142 keys
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I think if you added more keys, you might scare some people that are already intimidated by a computer. More likely, input will be better facilitated by ergonomic devices. The contoller on the upcoming Nintendo Wii is a start.


Current PC: 700 watts
C128: 40 watts
New Vs. Old 17.5 times
20 Years from now: 12,250 watts
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Most homes use 15 amp breakers, which is 1800 watts. Some older ones use 10 amp (1200 watts). I don't think universal rewiring will come into play in twenty years, nor do I think mainstream computers will require a dedicated 240v outlet.
 
i think computers dont have much more to go but in preattiness. And it that it still doesnt have much left. I think computers will need to get inovative, alot more confortable, use alot less Watts, bigger screens(they get cheaper to do), and alot more intergrated into the whole household...maybe thought.
Click to expand...

Computers have just begun. It's such a young technology that our grandchildren will wonder how we got by with only 4 core Conroes to sustain us. We are witnessing the teething stage of the life of the computer, not it's middle-age. They will never go away and they will get better all the time. When you say they have nowhere to go except in their aesthetic appeal I personally think that you are missing something. The ultimate computers are the ones you won't even notice. They will be in your clothes, in your wallet, in your couch and someday they will be in your body. The ultimate computer is not one that looks like the Venus de Milo or the Parthenon. It's the one that looks like a toothbrush because it is a toothbrush.

omfg did you quote me to say im wrong and then say the exact same thing i said? or you probably didnt understand what i said.

While I do admit your point when you say it is difficult to understand you I have to disagree with your belief that what I said entirely correlates to what you said. You said computers "dont have much more to go but in preattiness" and I disagree. Prettiness (correct spelling, btw) is by its very definition concerned with appearances. My point is that computers are concerned with what they can do, not how they look while doing it. You go on to say that they need to become "alot more intergrated into the whole household," which is a point with which I did not disagree. In fact, I elaborated upon that point in the rest of my post. Note that in my first response I specifically pointed out that my argument was not against your post as a whole but rather with your statement about "preattiness".
 
Computers have just begun. It's such a young technology that our grandchildren will wonder how we got by with only 4 core Conroes to sustain us. We are witnessing the teething stage of the life of the computer, not it's middle-age. They will never go away and they will get better all the time. When you say they have nowhere to go except in their aesthetic appeal I personally think that you are missing something. The ultimate computers are the ones you won't even notice. They will be in your clothes, in your wallet, in your couch and someday they will be in your body. The ultimate computer is not one that looks like the Venus de Milo or the Parthenon. It's the one that looks like a toothbrush because it is a toothbrush.
Click to expand...

What i meant, computers will have to do more than just play games and process stuff. Prettiness. If you understand what im saying. But computers will have to go into usefullness. A wheel is usefull, but not to advanced or pretty. therefore you didnt uderstand anything i said by infering that i meant asthetics of a computer; if i did, that would had been the dumbest shit ever...what a colorfull case? ofcourse i meant procesing. So to make it clear i will refrase:

i think computers dont have much more to do peformance wise. Programs already manage most of the needs of the everyday person with astonishing speeds. M$ is trying with Vista to stop that for some time. Ageia is trying to go into a useless tangent(in my opinion). Therefore, i think that the future of computers is in efficiency and usefullness, as well as how well they are incorporated into our routinely daily activities. I could say that a tothbrush is a computer but that point is absolete and useless. I use "computers" everyday in my math class as well, yet we all know that nobody in these forums is interested in overclocking a calculator for any usefull purposes...(back to original)....I think computers will need to get inovative, alot more confortable, use alot less Watts, bigger screens(they get cheaper to do), and alot more intergrated into the whole household...maybe thought.
 
Thank you for clarifying your point. Yes, I did think you meant how the computer looked and yes I also thought it was the stupidest **** ever. Can you blame for taking what you said literally, though? You didn't elaborate so naturally I assumed you meant exactly what you said. Also, you could have told me in your first reply what you actually meant. I think it was obvious by my post that I thought you meant the 'looks' of the computer.

I disagree whem you say that computers today perform with astonishing speed. It can take us hours to transcode a movie file with current tech. That's pretty inconvenient to a great deal of people. However, when we can do the same operation in 5 minutes then I will concede that it is astonishingly fast. (The paradox being, of course, that 5 minutes will seem astonishingly slow when several years later we can do it in 1 second.)

In addition, I do not feel that Ageia is going off on a useless tangent. Their implementation of hardware physics may be off base but it is a revolutionary concept that will pay off for gamers in the future.
 
You make some interesting, and not entirely untruthful, observations. Certainly my computer is much faster now than at any time in the past for office tasks (Core 2 duo at 3.4Ghz, 2 gigs of ram - so not only word loads instantaneously, but pdfs in acrobat do as well). Another big revolution has been the capacity to handle video, so you get not only youtube, but can watch tv episodes via bittorrent. But the user experience hasn't changed that much.
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The basic reason for my comparison is the lack of progress in interface in the past thirty years as compared to the thirty years before that.

In 1976 we had keyboards and mice were just on the horizon.

In 1946 we didn't even have punchcard readers yet.

Sure, with today's computers that have far more processing power than all of NASA did when Apollo 11 landed on the moon (or didn't land on the moon, depending on who you talk to) I am expecting a lot more than a fast load or bootup.

I wanna step up to my console and say "Hello Computer!" And have this expensive clot of circuitry do my work for me and cook my breakfast!!! 😀
 
Can I give you a quote from one of the worlds most famous scientist which will explain it all

Frink: ................ I predict that within 100 years, computers will
be twice as powerful, 10,000 times larger, and so expensive
that only the five richest kings of Europe will own them.
 
if we 're still using MS in 20 years time.... god help us

in 20 years time computer technology will be integral to every part of every day life but mostly in the background

home computer clients will more likely connect to central computers with massive computing power that will be taken for granted and there will be nothing that will tax them

I think personal computers will be a thing of the past, but portable devices will prosper. These will have limited computing power

So in 20 years time, you wont be comparing your pc to your friends.
 
In 20 years, Duke Nukem Forever will be in its final beta stage.
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Now that was inevitable.

As for future growth, we have new technologes besides the multiple-core trend we now see developing of the em/silica technology. Holographic/optical and quantum computing are showing promise. Taking a look back to 1986 may not be the most helpful way to approah the idea of 20 years from now. We seem to be living in a time of accelerated technological progress. This makes the future all that much harder to concieve - and who knows what major breakthrough might actually happen. I only have my job because there isn't a complex AI and voice recognition system to do the job instead.

As for interface, well there have been refinements to keyboards and mice. What's more interesting is that the voice and telemetric technologies are beginning to mature. LCD displays that you can roll up will be on the market soon too - as this matures you will see it all over the place. Signs, mobile phones and computing, hide-away displays...
 
Maybe what we should be talking about then. What future tech that is in the developmental, or researching stage, would we like to see succeed?

Personally, I am looking forward to Holographic Storage as being the future medium of storage. I first read about it in college 6 years ago before it was a major public tech, and I have been looking forward to seeing it ever since.

I dont like the idea of Quantum computers because the science behind the idea it is stupid IMO. It represents a shear increase in calculating power, but its not really logical (at this time).

I also want to see physics become a real part of gamming and simulations in the future. Right now, physics in gamming is very approximate, and very limited.... I want Red Faction 1 to have a real sequel.
 
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