Guestimate on how much fermi would cost?

[liquidsnake718]

I am sure they will have at least two variants, a cheaper(like a GTX260) and a really expensive(Gtx280) variant. How much do you think they will cost?

 

[TheGreatGrapeApe]

Easy formula;

value of the US$ / value of the taiwanese dollar X the yield @ TSMC / the yield at GF for 32/28nm X (the distance from the moon to the surface of the earth - [the distance from the core to the surface of the earth at TSMC + the distance from the core to the surface of the Dresden GF Fab]/2x All the tea in China [mainland-[HongKong/Taiwan] ) + the square root of working A1 Fermi chips X (the remain number of loyal fanbois who think Fermi will launch before groud hog day / the total # of GPU buyers -1) X (the price of the HD5970 on Boxing Day/K1 - the price of two 5770 on the last day of Kwanzaa).

I think there another variable in the like the the natural log of the gravitational constant somehwere, but I think that's only for the special overclocked and watercooled editions.

Hope that helps.

 

[cyberkuberiah]

the expensive one will be at least 450 dollars at launch as a guestimate .

 

[Mousemonkey]

$2499 - $18995

 

[4745454b]

Seeing as the G300 is larger then the G200, and yields at 40nm aren't so good, the prices will be high. The one advantage Nvidia has this time is that AMD fired first so they know what the rest of the market is aiming for. G300 top end will be around the power of the new 5970 (pure guess on my part) so you can expect ~$600.

 

[cyberkuberiah]

i hope it has the power of a gt300 for sure , and then when they go 28/32nm , they can get a dual fermi out , now that would be serious for future games on 2560x1600 . that would be a perfect replacement for a gtx 295 .

but there are doubts : its a bit different from the last year , as 4800 launched after gt200 , and bought a reduction in prices , but what will happen this year ? launch at less prices ? from nvidia's history , they like to launch at sell-your-old-mobike-and-get-this-card prices !

secondly , fermi being an HPC optimized , but how will that play out for gaming and dx11 performance ? perhaps they will use all that dual precision flops and caches and other tidbits , write solid drivers , they can do that , and take the performance bar to newer heights . i think that what they have in mind , they are moving a bit far from gaming only cards as ati said , but they wont "abandon" gaming .

even more future speculation , radeon hd6000 will be radically different from hd5000 .

 

[obsidian86]

bottom range $200 top line for $799

 

[OvrClkr]

Easy formula;

value of the US$ / value of the taiwanese dollar X the yield @ TSMC / the yield at GF for 32/28nm X (the distance from the moon to the surface of the earth - [the distance from the core to the surface of the earth at TSMC + the distance from the core to the surface of the Dresden GF Fab]/2x All the tea in China [mainland-[HongKong/Taiwan] ) + the square root of working A1 Fermi chips X (the remain number of loyal fanbois who think Fermi will launch before groud hog day / the total # of GPU buyers -1) X (the price of the HD5970 on Boxing Day/K1 - the price of two 5770 on the last day of Kwanzaa).

I think there another variable in the like the the natural log of the gravitational constant somehwere, but I think that's only for the special overclocked and watercooled editions.

Hope that helps.

lol +1

so buy looking at that formula it seems that they will cost quite a bit, or shall I say more than what ATI is charging ....

 

[JackNaylorPE]

Figure that no one will buy one if they can't justify the cost over a comparable ATI card......

....So if it beats the 5970, it can't cost more than $699
....So if it beats the 5870, it can't cost more than $499
.....and so on ....

and if it loses, no one will buy any so price is moot

 

[EXT64]

Oh, plenty will still buy, just for the NVidia name.

But anyway, my bet is one billion dollars (from TGGA's formula, he just forgot the square root of the age of the Universe).

 

[OvrClkr]

^^ daym, then that makes it even more expensive per unit.... =(

 

[jonpaul37]

well, doesn't it all depend on the benchmarks vs. the competition?

Example: Fermi releases it's top - of - the - line single card solution and it's right on par or very slightly better than the 5870. In the end, it should be priced the same as the 5870... it's all based on price/performance. One would be considered dumb to buy a card that that has the same performance but costs more.

 

[OvrClkr]

Exactly, thats why Fermi has to be superior to the 5870 REGARDLESS or there is no point in purchasing it in the first place. Same as the GTX 260 vs. the 4890, the 4890 is superior yet costs the same or less depending on model...

 

[daedalus685]

Exactly, thats why Fermi has to be superior to the 5870 REGARDLESS or there is no point in purchasing it in the first place. Same as the GTX 260 vs. the 4890, the 4890 is superior yet costs the same or less depending on model...

Yet people still buy many gtx260s.

Never underestimate the power of a brand, or the stupidity of a consumer.

I'm sure there is someone at Nvidia tht has already figured out how much money they will make at any given final performance level. I bet you would be surprised how much they figure they will make even if the thing performs berely better than a gtx285. The don't have to match ATI's price/perforamcne, they only have to come close.. they will probably profit even without being all that close. I'd bet JH and company are mroe than able to tank a generation. As sad as it is, the 5000 series coudl be on every store shelf right now, and fermi coudl nto come out until June, yet Nvidia would not lose more than a couple % in market share over that time. Though things like that hurt long term if it goes on for too long.

 

[JAYDEEJOHN]

Dont forget, people will defend the use of physx, CUDA etc, and be willing to pay that extra

 

[jonpaul37]

in regards to CUDA/Physx/etc. I believe that it is all a matter of preference there, JDJ & daedalus685 are right, people stick to their brands, but over the last year or so, i have seen alot of converts...

These are very exciting times in the GPU market, lots of competition... lets hope laugh-a-bee can hold a candle, it'll make things even more interesting.

 

[OvrClkr]

Yet people still buy many gtx260s.

Never underestimate the power of a brand, or the stupidity of a consumer.

I'm sure there is someone at Nvidia tht has already figured out how much money they will make at any given final performance level. I bet you would be surprised how much they figure they will make even if the thing performs berely better than a gtx285. The don't have to match ATI's price/perforamcne, they only have to come close.. they will probably profit even without being all that close. I'd bet JH and company are mroe than able to tank a generation. As sad as it is, the 5000 series coudl be on every store shelf right now, and fermi coudl nto come out until June, yet Nvidia would not lose more than a couple % in market share over that time. Though things like that hurt long term if it goes on for too long.

Well just for the record I am not one of those people , I had the the option to upgrade one of my GTS 250 (1bg) for the GTX 260 through BFG's trade up program. But I might have to settle for another GTX 260 if Fermi does not land on earth anytime soon. Im just tired of the wait

 

[IzzyCraft]

I'll defend the use of phsyx hell any "physics" engine when it does and is used for what people think of physics ie moving single rigid body instead of ohh debris cloth smoke WATER! by YOUR powers combined, I am Captain Planet!

 

[nforce4max]

$2499 - $18995

I was going to say $600~800 USD but if the economy implodes that will be cheap with your numbers.

 

[Mousemonkey]

I was going to say $600~800 USD but if the economy implodes that will be cheap with your numbers.

The Fermi cards are most likely going to cost that much, the cards 'based' on Fermi, like the GF100, will hopefully cost a lot less but that's because they are not the full fat Fermi cards. The 'Fermi' cards are the equivalent of the current Quadro cards and should not be confused with what will be their desktop equivalents which, as rumour has it, will be known as GF100. The OP's question was "Guestimate on how much fermi would cost?" not "Guestimate on how much fermi based top of the range desktop cards would cost?

 

[jaguarskx]

I'm guessing at least $1, unless it's sold in a 99 cents store.

 

[nforce4max]

I'm guessing at least $1, unless it's sold in a 99 cents store.

Sure if we went on a gold standard and ten to fifteen years has passed then it should be free.

 

[itisravi]

These are just speculations

Top end card: 512 cores, 384-bit, High clocks ------ performance between gtx295 and 5970 ---------- $599

Second Card: 448 cores, 320-bit, Moderate clocks ---- performance between 5870 and gtx295 ---------- $399

Third card: 256 cores, 256-bit, High clocks ------- performance around 5850 ------ $249

 

[cyberkuberiah]

those prices are not impossible as far as the die sizes are concerned , as 512 core fermi is rumored to be 576 mm2 , exactly as big as gtx280 which launched at $650 . even more delicious , consider a 28nm fermi based shrink like the gtx285 is today , around 350 dollars ! that would be sweet , and the dual fermi for 550$(1024 cores) .

oh my , save us from all the guessing and bless nvidia to release the next , godspeed !

 

[JAYDEEJOHN]

Id add, we havnt seen the implementation of HKMG in gpus yet, which should be available at 28nm.
HKMG brings with it cooler cores at same speeds, or, faster cores all around.
Its like a shrink in itself, so Im looking highly towards its usage, as I see it as, with the 28nm process, similar to a doubling of process change, meaning higher clocks by far, and better cooling, or cooler cores