News Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger Declares 'AMD's Lead Is Over' After Alder Lake, Sapphire Rapids

[spongiemaster]

It is probably true that AMD don't have initial access to 3nm, but I don't think that is the strategy of AMD anyway, at least from what I see. They use the the next best fab that's available to avoid paying top dollars for it. Intel may have the cash to soak up whatever spare capacity that Apple is not using, but though Intel may be a big company, they are no match for Apple. So at the end of the day, competing with Apple for cutting edge node is like throwing away money. Intel on the other hand is more likely to use the cutting edge 3nm for their enterprise/DC chips since it is going to cost a lot and makes sense to use it for high margin products. Chances of consumer CPUs getting 3nm chip initially is very slim.

I agree with most of what you are saying here. I don't think AMD is interested in paying for premier access to TSMC's brand new nodes, but they have been 2nd in line behind Apple up until now. AMD was TSMC's 2nd largest 7nm customer behind Apple before 5nm hit the market, so AMD isn't really bargain hunting for non-leading edge nodes either. Intel leap frogging AMD in the queue and possibly lowering the wafer capacity AMD can purchase is not a positive no matter how far backwards VforV tries to bend to claim that.

Intel doesn't have the cash on hand that Apple does, but that isn't going to be the determining factor for what each company is bidding for wafers. What will determine bidding ceilings for Intel and Apple is the amount of revenue each company predicts it can generate from each wafer. Intel is rumored to be testing a few Xeon sku's and a data center GPU on TSMC's 3nm. Apple will be able to get a whole lot more M1's or A16's or whatever they plan to produce on 3nm than usable Xeon's/GPU's that Intel will get. However, Apple can't charge anywhere near the $8000-$10K+ for the chip alone that Intel is probably going to charge. So, who knows which company will be able to generate more revenue per wafer.

 

[JayNor]

Intel's chip product roadmap leaks on MLID and Intel's own wafer process forecast are both at a more rapid pace than for the past several years.

AMD's pace seems to have slowed, failing to move to EUV processing on Milan, still waiting for zen4 for avx512 features, lagging on introduction of pcie5 after leading on pcie4.

Intel is even on TSM N5 (Ponte Vecchio) and TSM N6 (Xe-HPG) ahead of AMD, so use of TSM advanced nodes is now one of Intel's checklist of technical advantages.

 

[VforV]

I can try to tell you the world is flat, and that wouldn't make me right. Only one person has tried to argue my point, and they're wrong.

You need to be careful. No one here wants to see you hurt yourself straining so hard to spin this fab situation with TSMC into a positive for AMD.

Dude, I'm not spinning anything here. It's called being informed from multiple sources, website and YT channels and also leaks from trusted leakers.

Do you even inform yourself from somewhere else other than this site?

This is the real situation, as I described above.

You can however spin it all you want in favour of intel, because the reality is not like that. But keep telling fairy tales...

Since I don't like wasting time with neophytes, I'll just add you to ignore list now. Bye.

 

[DanGer71]

I can try to tell you the world is flat, and that wouldn't make me right. Only one person has tried to argue my point, and they're wrong.

You need to be careful. No one here wants to see you hurt yourself straining so hard to spin this fab situation with TSMC into a positive for AMD.



See below.



You're grossly overestimating AMD's importance to TSMC. Last year, by revenue, AMD was TSMC's sixth largest customer at 7.3%. Apple is #1 at a significantly higher 24.2%. Who was seventh? Intel, 1.3% behind AMD. Intel has been a major customer of TSMC for years. Almost as big as AMD. It's not in the news because until now, Intel hasn't been using TSMC for any of their flagship products. TSMC would be just fine without AMD as a customer. AMD needs TSMC more than the reverse. Where is AMD going without TSMC? Not back to Global Foundries. Not Intel. They're only option is Samsung. Ask Nvidia how that's working out for them.

So what you are telling me is that AMD does 6x more revenue last year with Intel did with AMD and AMD is growing 25% per year. Ask yourself something. How else does TSMC grow their x86 prescence wihtout AMD. Do you think it is Intel's long term stratagey to use TSMC as their leading edge provoider? It is pretty clear based on Intel's investment in leading edge fabs of their own that TSMC is just a stop gap for them. They will never do as much with Intel as they do with AMD. Plus Intel is looking to outsource and compete with TSMC. TSMC would be foolish to snub AMD for Intel. This is common knowledge.

 

[TerryLaze]

So what you are telling me is that AMD does 6x more revenue last year with Intel did with AMD and AMD is growing 25% per year. Ask yourself something. How else does TSMC grow their x86 prescence wihtout AMD. Do you think it is Intel's long term stratagey to use TSMC as their leading edge provoider? It is pretty clear based on Intel's investment in leading edge fabs of their own that TSMC is just a stop gap for them. They will never do as much with Intel as they do with AMD. Plus Intel is looking to outsource and compete with TSMC. TSMC would be foolish to snub AMD for Intel. This is common knowledge.

So why do you think that TSMC is trying to increase their x86 presence?!
There are only two customers for it on the whole world with one of them having enough FABs to not even really need TSMC.
For GPUs/smartphones/arm there are dozens of companies for each.

Also if intel does 10% of its manufacturing at TSMC that would be more than 100% of what AMD does. (or something like that)

TSMC will definitely not snub AMD for intel but that doesn't mean that they will give them any special privileges above other companies either.

 

[DanGer71]

So why do you think that TSMC is trying to increase their x86 presence?!
There are only two customers for it on the whole world with one of them having enough FABs to not even really need TSMC.
For GPUs/smartphones/arm there are dozens of companies for each.

Also if intel does 10% of its manufacturing at TSMC that would be more than 100% of what AMD does. (or something like that)

TSMC will definitely not snub AMD for intel but that doesn't mean that they will give them any special privileges above other companies either.

It is common knowledge that TSMC is looking to gain in x86. They already dominate ARM and GPU. It is a high growth area for them.

 

[-Fran-]

It is common knowledge that TSMC is looking to gain in x86. They already dominate ARM and GPU. It is a high growth area for them.

Wat

Any... hm... sources?

Regards.

 

[DanGer71]

Wat

Any... hm... sources?

Regards.

You must be new to the scene. Google it.

 

[-Fran-]

You must be new to the scene. Google it.

Sure... I'm new... LOL

Anyway, that's too easy to do.

"hey, the earth is flat; just google it".

No, it doesn't work like that.

Regards.