Intel faces performance struggle for 2 hard years

endyen · Oct 26, 2004

I expect Intel will be a little more sinistrous than that. The release of Win-64 will not effect low end product enough to take up that kind of demand. I'm not sure how many chips Intel is holding, but it is in the hundreds of millions.
On the other hand, expect to see a lot of "deals" for a mobo and chip. We might even see some special packages for gi joe, or the third world market.

Xeon · Oct 26, 2004

People China.

Xeon

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wolverinero79 · Oct 26, 2004

I'm watching Intel's factory strategies more than the news media or online posts about the inventory problem in general. The first half of this year, they were more than fully loaded in many of their factories...constantly pushing their equipment and employees. Then, after the second quarter, they realized they had screwed up in calculating the demand for their processors. Now their factories are severely underloaded (and probably will be until the end of the year or perhaps longer).

Their inventory levels in the beginning of 2h04 were not typical "we just want to make sure we're well stocked" levels. They were/are a problem created by bad management planning. Now Intel has stopped the idea of making the LCOS chip for televisions. What's next...abandoning WiMAX and Itanium? Intel is flat out not healthy right now and I think we're slowly seeing them admit that.

They have huge potential and resources, but they need focus. Hopefully, that's what the delays and cancellations are creating.

I'm just your average habitual smiler =D

RichPLS · Oct 26, 2004

and if Intel ain't carefull, AMD might buy em ont, but they don't want em.

_____________________________________________
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trooper11 · Oct 26, 2004

"Do believe the A64 and the last 5 or so stepping of the AXP's faced that actually, or you don’t remember the paper launches like the rest of us?"

actually if youd quote me accurately, i stated int he very next line that i was refering to the current generation of chips, not axp, sorry if i confused that part.

anyway, in the last year, who has been able to release on schedual in a quantity that has allowed ppl that have wanted it to buy it? i dont htink it was intel. like i said, i dont know of any shortages/paper launches on amd this year, now of course i remmber the initial problesm sure, im talking about recent times. im not trying to attack intle on this, im just stating what ive seen. its nto liek it hurts intle to paper luanch, only enthusiasts pay attention to that anyway. heck it wouldnt affect amd or intle in the long run most likely.

Xeon · Oct 27, 2004

Now Intel has stopped the idea of making the LCOS chip for televisions.

Why is that a big deal, projection is far better than LCD and rivals Plasma.

Intel is flat out not healthy right now and I think we're slowly seeing them admit that.

Is that so, then why are they still showing record quarters?

sorry if i confused that part

No problem you noticed a few of my errors too.

Xeon

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Mephistopheles · Oct 27, 2004

Is that so, then why are they still showing record quarters?

Intel doesn't sell CPUs exclusively; they have many other businesses going on, like memory.

And it has been stated repeatedly that AMD sales have come to one of their highest ever, if you consider the proportion of CPUs that are sold that are theirs.

Plus, PR works. It will take only a small amount of time for people to realize that AMD has a 3800 and 4000 chip, but Intel doesn't have 3800Mhz and 4Ghz going on. They won't get to 4Ghz anytime soon - even in the next, say, 3 years! (if they replace the netburst architecture by a reasonable one, we'll probably get much more performance at lower clock rates!)

They're making a bad show of technology, and that's what matters. And things won't get any better. It's only a matter of time - if things keep up for several months - for Intel to feel some pressure on their CPU market. There is no way to deny that.Edited by Mephistopheles on 10/26/04 11:02 PM.

endyen · Oct 27, 2004

Is that so, then why are they still showing record quarters?

That's easy, they haven't paid out the usual billions in bonuses, cause nobody's earned them.
We hope that Intel has gotten past the denial point. We as consummers want them healthy, for competitions sake. If you want to stay in denial, well, that just isn't inportant.

Mephistopheles · Oct 27, 2004

That's quite right. We want them competitive alright. For instance, up until now, the s939 was a premium platform that had a hefty price tag attached to it... Things have gotten better with 3000 and 3200 A64s for s939.

And AMD is certainly capable of launching, say, a 2.6Ghz (~4300+) A64 (90nm), still this year. Will they do so? Doubtful, because that would be overkill. We could probably start 2005 with 2.8Ghz (~4700+) A64s (90nm) (PR obtained roughly through linear scaling) on the market, if AMD was pushing the lines, but they have no reason to do that. Doesn't that kind of make us all sad?

As things stand, what we get is overpriced products and no real change in what AMD and Intel are offering for a long time...

Edit: A 2.6Ghz, 1MB cache A64 built with 90nm would probably be rated 4400+, not 4300+, because of the added 2-6% performance of going to 90nm. The hypothetical 2.8Ghz would probably rate at around 4800+ or so. A full 3Ghz A64 would exceed the 5000+ rating, if and when it becomes available... it was actually designed to compete with the 5Ghz prescott... if such a beast ever came to exist! (it is expected that AMD can reach the 3Ghz mark with current 90nm processes... 2.8Ghz at least, in any case)

See what we're missing from competition? Wouldn't we all appreciate it if these processors had their introductions hastened?? Alacrity would be appreciated...

Xeon · Oct 27, 2004

Intel doesn't sell CPUs exclusively; they have many other businesses going on, like memory.

Flash you mean right, well let me see here I do believe Intel made 5,928,000,000 on microprocessors, oh and look I do believe 1,210,000,000 in chipsets/motherboards oh goodness 638,000,000 in flash memory.

Sure the hell don’t look like they are selling <A HREF="http://www.intel.com/pressroom/archive/releases/20041012corp.htm" target="_new">processors</A> does it?

And it has been stated repeatedly that AMD sales have come to one of their highest ever,

It has also been stated that AMD reported record sales of $1,206,549,000 I do believe for all AMD sells they cant even touch Intel’s chipset division. Both companies appear healthy even when one claims at least one is otherwise.

That's easy, they haven't paid out the usual billions in bonuses, cause nobody's earned them.

Goodness then you best read my link don’t cha think?

Xeon

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endyen · Oct 27, 2004

I am sure that Amd will be glad to hear that you and Intel are very happy with the current market trends.

trooper11 · Oct 27, 2004

"It has also been stated that AMD reported record sales of $1,206,549,000 I do believe for all AMD sells they cant even touch Intel’s chipset division. Both companies appear healthy even when one claims at least one is otherwise."

Ive said that before, amd and intel can both exist forever and both can profit wihtout one or the other failing. even with a small share amd profits, and intel isnt made impoverish by it lol, i mean how is that for a good deal for all of us here.

AMD can be around wihtout having to take down intel or anything, same as Intel does not have to shut amd down to remain profitable. It all comes down to who gets too greedy first lol. But I do have to say that every big corperation, especially one in such a dominant position as intel, eventually goes through a 'correction' at some point due to increased competition or just building up too much 'fat' and having to trim back on programs, ect.

Intel right now seems to be reconsolidating alot, and thats good, trimming some of the more uselesses areas and trying its hardest to refocus its efforts where its success began in the first place. Thats the burden of being on top lol, you let success go too far and you loose track of things.

that also becomes the advantage of the underdog. amd needs expansion, while intel needs refocusing what they already have. intel can already provide all the chips in the world if they needed to lol. amd still has room to grow and thats what its doing, finding ways to take advantage of oppurtunities.

i dont know why you want to make some kind of comment like look how little amd made lol, but thier profits are just as big of a deal and just as good news as intel's, maybe evne better becuase amd has begun to continuously have profitable quarters for a change, while its basically a for gone conculsion that intel will profit every singel quarter no matter what lol.

RichPLS · Oct 27, 2004

Yeah, Intel shore has wwwwaaaaaayyyyyy ssssslllllloooowwwwwww ccccchhhhhhiiiiiippppppssssss......

don't they....pass the rotel

_____________________________________________
 And the sign says "You got to have a membership card to get inside" Huh
So I got me a pen and paper And I made up my own little sign

raretech · Oct 27, 2004

These market trends couldn't be better for Intel. Duh. :tongue:

Nemo me impune lacesset

Xeon · Oct 27, 2004

I am sure that Amd will be glad to hear that you and Intel are very happy with the current market trends.

You should be sure to tell me when they have the fiscal and manufacturing capacity to cause an upset in the market.

Intel right now seems to be reconsolidating alot, and thats good, trimming some of the more uselesses areas and trying its hardest to refocus its efforts where its success began in the first place. Thats the burden of being on top lol, you let success go too far and you loose track of things.

Wow didn’t expect you to say that, being a level headed comment.

i dont know why you want to make some kind of comment like look how little amd made lol, but thier profits are just as big of a deal and just as good news as intel's, maybe evne better becuase amd has begun to continuously have profitable quarters for a change, while its basically a for gone conculsion that intel will profit every singel quarter no matter what lol.

The idea was to show that Intel seems to be in trouble but for the last 8 or so quarters they have been on a steady rise. Where is the fiscal damage? since last quarter was much better than the year before.

I am looking at their inventories again 996 million worth of finished silicon. That’s up I do agree considering last year this time is was at 696 million worth. I just don’t see it as a prevailing issue at all. Even years past have sat at these levels, seems manageable for the last few years don’t see much changing at this point.

These market trends couldn't be better for Intel. Duh.

Your right they have pretty well lost the performance war by a good mark yet they are still profitable.

Xeon

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RichPLS · Oct 27, 2004

Lost is funny, I think of losing as in all aspects, not just in specific areas of interest. If that is the case, well there are not many companies making winning items, because their products are not tops in all areas.
The top speed difference between workstation, desktops and laptops are not night and day. They are more blurred like in the twilight zone.
There are no performance winners to the chip crown other than with the consumer.
Because, here is where you can look at the specs of both, deterimine your need, and buy the best performance keeping the best price in mind.

_____________________________________________
 And the sign says "You got to have a membership card to get inside" Huh
So I got me a pen and paper And I made up my own little sign

wolverinero79 · Oct 27, 2004

What you've forgotten to mention is that Intel is still profitable even with major R&D and acquisitions (they recently bought some Wireless technology for about 150 million dollars...that's more than triple AMD's profits for last quarter...an amount that Intel can make in about 2 months from interest on their cash reserves).

Financially, Intel seems pretty healthy now. Their capital team is obviously doing smart investing. Intel IS in many arenas (networking, graphics, chipsets, processors). Selling a hardware package that's designed to work together from the ground up is definitely a great strategy (and something AMD really can't support with their factory space). However, Intel's consumer processor division is lagging in performance and their brand name has been damaged by the recalls and cancellations. But, better to recall something that you know is a problem rather than have the consumer find out and be angry. Also, better to stop a venture that turns out to not have such a great ROI than follow it to completion and then not be profitable.

The shift in the processor division is not a doom cloud, but kind of a hopeful transition (hey, Intel's doing something about what everyone's been talking about for the past while). You have to agree that it's going to take some time to bounce back, though. This upcoming CEO transition will be interesting too.

It's been disappointing to see Intel not on top (I don't root for the underdog, I like to see a winner win), but they're not down and out.

I'm just your average habitual smiler =D

RichPLS · Oct 27, 2004

I see both as Winning, and the customer wins best.

_____________________________________________
 And the sign says "You got to have a membership card to get inside" Huh
So I got me a pen and paper And I made up my own little sign

Xeon · Oct 28, 2004

Well I think... wait I agree with you.

Xeon

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darko21 · Oct 28, 2004

Nobody is saying Intel won't be profitable or stop making money any time soon but when your stock has 8 billion million shares floating around at $20.00 per share you must prove it's worth it. Intel is not going to go bankrupt or stop making cpu's anytime soon if ever and they will make money for a long time yet. HOWEVER they are in trouble with what matters to them their stock price. Intel is not interested in the consumer or the share holder they care about the stock price so the can reward themselve with options at share holders expense. I belive all companies reward with options so no blaming Intel for doing what everyone else does. However this is why the phantom cpu's early releases and recalls buying back company stock with banked cash and cooking the books etc etc. Take a look at these <A HREF="http://www.fool.com/news/mft/2004/mft04102712.htm?source=eptyholnk303100&logvisit=y&npu=y&bounce=y&bounce2=y" target="_new"> ..GUYS.. </A> They know why Intel is in trouble. I don't think ever in history has someone reccomened shorting Intel and praising AMD in the same story.

If I glanced at a spilt box of tooth picks on the floor, could I tell you how many are in the pile. Not a chance, But then again I don't have to buy my underware at Kmart.

Xeon · Oct 28, 2004

Intel is not interested in the consumer or the share holder they care about the stock price so the can reward themselve with options at share holders expense.

Do not confuse Intel's CEO's main drive, which is to make those shares worth something. He can retire will the countless millions he has made off of share value. It's been the intent of every single CEO of Intel other than Grove.

Buying back company stock is an everyday thing for any large company. The CEO or very large shareholders generally get a chance to have their stocks bought back if their value has gone down. It's an odd situation at best but people with money don’t like to loose it and if the company did well income wise but failed to increase the value of the stock, why not dip into the company coffers and make it all even.

Remember Sanders always did that even when the company was burning money in barrels.

With regards to the statement, it seems it is more cynical than anything else. If they didn’t care they wouldn’t make products that work well. So what they aren’t the fastest anymore but they have feature filled rock solid chipsets, mobile processors that are in a league of their own, a power house but over priced server processor. But more importantly they are interested in going forward with new technologies.

Something of a pet peeve of mine with AMD, they tend to sit back and watch the show before they jump into anything new. With exceptions to the Athlon 64 there hasn’t been anything of great interest coming from their side, which saddens me, because after all these years of battling Intel they finally get on top but have no money, manufacturing capacity, or grand technologies to trump the situation further.

All they can do is sit and watch as the giant shifts gears, I do personally hope for the best and have high hopes for AMD but with the situation as is it doesn’t look to be a new day in the semiconductor business, just reminds me of the Willamette days.

However this is why the phantom cpu's early releases and recalls buying back company stock with banked cash and cooking the books etc etc.

Phantom CPU's? There are good reasons to not release the 4.0, what more can be said about it?

As for cooking the books I don’t have a clue what you mean but ill disagree to disagree with ya.

Take a look at these ..GUYS..

If I made a site and said the sky was falling would you come to THG and try to convince everyone the sky was falling because I said so?

Xeon

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darko21 · Oct 28, 2004

Spud you really are a cluless retard who likes to worship what he likes and is cluless to the facts. More filler bunk you should enter politics.

That fool article dated today that I linked to was written by unbiased people who have bashed amd plently in the past.

You are so busy defending intel you cannot see reality.

Your expert track record speaks volumes, so why should anyone listen to a babling intel worshiper now? HUH!

Intel and their stock price and or marketshare is in trouble. You are only fooling yourself if you think otherwise.

If I glanced at a spilt box of tooth picks on the floor, could I tell you how many are in the pile. Not a chance, But then again I don't have to buy my underware at Kmart.

Xeon · Oct 28, 2004

Spud you really are a cluless retard who likes to worship what he likes and is cluless to the facts. More filler bunk you should enter politics.

That fool article dated today that I linked to was written by unbiased people who have bashed amd plently in the past.

You are so busy defending intel you cannot see reality.

Your expert track record speaks volumes, so why should anyone listen to a babling intel worshiper now? HUH!

Intel and their stock price and or marketshare is in trouble. You are only fooling yourself if you think otherwise.

If I glanced at a spilt box of tooth picks on the floor, could I tell you how many are in the pile. Not a chance, But then again I don't have to buy my underware at Kmart.

OK nice talking with you goomba head.

Xeon

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trooper11 · Oct 28, 2004

"Wow didn’t expect you to say that, being a level headed comment."

what? what did i say that was wrong? Are they not refocusing themselves and cutting back on some projects they deemed uneccesary or now arent as feesible in order to turn to better choices? tell me where im wrong here. I wasnt trying to say they were messing up or anything. Every comapny cuts back on projects if they dont pan out and go in new directions whne they see a new path, dont take my comment as an attack on them.

concerning intels supply, i dont htink they oculd ever have 'too many' there are hundred of ways of selling off over supply open tot hem, so i dont see that as being a problem. its better ot have too many up to a point, under supply.

amd isnt under supplied either mind you, there are no shoratages of amd parts. supply is in line with demand. that was my point about amd and intel both suceeding here, and its unusual to see a situation when opponents can both be winning. but if you count profitiability as winning, boht are. Now of course intel is winning 'more', but winning is winning lol.

You mentioned amd not upsetting the market in another post, but I dont know what you mean there. you saying amd doesnt affect the market? I have to dissagree there, even in their 'limited' fashion, they affect the market jsut as intel does.

"Your right they have pretty well lost the performance war by a good mark yet they are still profitable."

yes thats the bonus of having a battle hardened and immovable marketing strategy lol. its enough to cushion intel till they can get more competitive performance wise. too bad amd doesnt have the resources to have that kind of marketing yet.

Xeon · Oct 28, 2004

what? what did i say that was wrong? Are they not refocusing themselves and cutting back on some projects they deemed uneccesary or now arent as feesible in order to turn to better choices? tell me where im wrong here. I wasnt trying to say they were messing up or anything. Every comapny cuts back on projects if they dont pan out and go in new directions whne they see a new path, dont take my comment as an attack on them.

I meant what I said sorry if you found it offensive from thinking it was snide.

'limited' fashion

We yet again agree.

Xeon

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Intel faces performance struggle for 2 hard years

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