The TDP limit is set with HTT in mind, you do not hit that limit if not both normal cores and SMT cores are fully loaded (unless you are overclocking but intel and amd don't sell CPUs as overclocked) , so you are talking about twice the load on one side compared to the other side...
Definitely not true.
You can easily hit thermal limits on a single core (or couple/few cores) without all cores being fully loaded. It is also NOT twice the load. These
shadow cores are not even close in IPC to the full, real cores. In fact, they are not even real cores. They are just cache fillers for the next bit of work needing to be done.
If you are running something that loads only all normal cores then the core speed will be the same because the tdp has all of that headroom that the HTT is supposed to use.
So, once you bring in different types of workloads into the equation, the results get muddied. There are definitly many scenarios where having HT/SMT enabled is beneficial. As you said, it can be up to 15-20% of a performance benefit in certain scenarios.
The points I wanted to make are that -
1) HT/SMT has NEVER been just free performance. There has always been a thermal, power, (and now) security cost involved.
2) It seems that Intel has crunched the numbers, done the math, and decided that the overhead involved with having HT is no longer beneficial. If these new chips show a major increase in IPC, then being able to clock them higher and for longer (vs having HT enabled) may completely negate any HT benefit.
We'll see when the next gen chips launch.