You still don't get it. Do you?
What you pay to buy AMD stocks DOES NOT go to AMD to help them support their factory in Dresden (unless they make a public offering). You buy from oher shareholders, not from AMD.
In one of your early posts, you talked about AMD's lower YTD profits dissapointing investors by lowering their ROI where you were under the illusion of investors queing up in front of AMD's door to ask for their share of profit from past years.
I don't understand why all techies love to talk about finance. Most of them are really lousy at it. If I were you, I would go back to my transistors and current leakage. You seem to be doing alright in that domain. Please leave Finance to Finance people.
jkflipflop98
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gr8mikey
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You know, this is a hard call -- if you read the financial analysts report, the street seems to believe that Intel will "achieve parity" with this product refresh.
They, like the AMD extremes, are not buying into this new architecture hype. My personal take on it is because they do not understand it. Nonetheless, the financial sentiment in the market is still doom and gloom for Intel.
Having said that, the spread in the bottom is varied, I have read as low as 15 on the downside, and others I have read say 25 on the upside. Myself, and don't take financial advice from me, I am no better than the Yo_Kid dude....
I dumped 2000 shares of Intel at 28, I am waiting for 16 to take that back and pocket the difference. I, pretty much emptied my AMD positions shortly after the IDF benches came out, not because of the bencehs but because of the tardiness of the Fab 36 production announcement. They were late in my opinion.
If, the stock hits 16 between now and Q2 results, I will buy, if after the Q2 results and it is looking UP , that is it pops to say 18.5-19, then I will buy and ride the wave up as I expect 2H to be either better for Intel or worst for AMD which would be good for Intel.....
The problem is at a P/E of < 16 for Intel, with no pressure for upward price moves this is suggesting that Intel is no longer valued as a growth stock. However, with AMD at P/E > 30 and the rise to as high as 40, the street does consider AMD a growth stock. Their growth coming at the expense of Intel. Personally, anyone with positions in AMD today is gambling and you have sufficiently helped them fund Fab 36 -- which, in the face of the price pressures and apparent loss in performance relative to Intel is a big gamble... coupled with the fact that the lack of decpreciation appears to be 'cooking the books', I would, as a share holder, demand an SEC audit if they do not report significant depreciation against Fab 36 this quarter.
Jack
My take is that the analysts are doing all they can to keep intel stock coming down in price before they report a likely down Q2 (Q2 is usually the softest quarter of the year afterall). They are deliberatly trying to make it as cheap as possible before the Conroe effect kicks in. Then having pushed it so low, they start pumping intel up and make a ton on the rebound.
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Yes, they have no idea YET how efficient conroe is and they're not expecting anything big from intel.
Let's face it, most analysts aren't hardware enthusiasts and don't really pay attention to pre-release benchmarks.
The implications of such a performance increase is that since it allowed AMD to take share back from intel, it will do the same for vice versa.
Don't be so hard on yourself, i think your advice is very well thought out.
No one know for sure how the stock market will behave all we can do is make a best guess.
I think my estimate of 14 is a little hopefull, support seems to be holding at 17.5-18. (52 week low) :?
You're right, it is a gamble.
They're expecting that AMD will be able to compete with intel by upgrading to the 65 nm process. What they haven't taken into account is that factory won't be producing 65nm chips till 2007, meanwhile intel already has 65 nm production mastered and will debut a new platform that won't have a problem competing with amd's old 90nm technology.
Many non-day traders are aware of hardware abilities...especially since companies in the Tech sector RELIE on good hardware/performance for business..
Sure analysts cant pay attention to the nitty gritty stuff, but they do know when companies are coming out with innovation, or something that will be big. Right now analysts dont reccomend Intel because Intel's is in a bad position relative to AMD's growth. However dont think that after Intel gets to some even lower numbers that the analysts wont switch it to a buy because they know Conroe is likely to be a big redeemer, and AMD is not in a position to respond for months if not years.
Side note: if this AMD takin ATI thing is true buy ATI now, then wait after the merger and buy AMD....that will be sweet.
My economics have said the same as well, and ordinarilly I would agree with you; however, the greatest living investor, Warren Buffet, lives by the mantra know your business. Most analysts, while not stupid men, do not know the hardware industry like we do. I doubt that financial analysts have seen the tgdaily, anandtech, extremtech, etc articles and forums. Investing is part an estimate of the business, and a guess of those who invest in the business. Right now everyone, analysts, are forcasting doom and gloom for Intel. However, we all have a good feeling about Intel's new product line and we think it will sell very well. Therefore taking this information that we know, and this is more reliable than speculation, we can make an educated guess on the position of Intel. And right now it to me it looks like they are undervalued. If a business is undervalued, then buy it.
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Just keep in mind that the majority of people on these forums (probably something like 95%) are vastly ignorant of trading on the stock market. So I think he is justified in warning anybody who is reading this.
You have to admit that it would really suck if someone(the majority of people on these forums) with no knowledge about stock trading just read this one article and blew a ton of money based on only this thread! :roll: :roll: :roll: 8O 8O
You have to admit that it would really suck if someone(the majority of people on these forums) with no knowledge about stock trading just read this one article and blew a ton of money based on only this thread! :roll: :roll: :roll: 8O 8O
Artmic
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I have a feeling that Intel stock will go at least 10-15 percent lower before it rebounds, i think investors and people that owned the stock are really disapointed with Intel.
If i had the money i'd purchase at least $100K worth of Intel Stock if it dipped 5 more percent, no questions asked. (it will go up eventualy, unless Intel flops again with the Conroe processors like it did with P4)
My prediction(I pulled this out of my ass) is that Intel will really rebound in 2011, yup, my crystal ball is working just fine. lol
If i had the money i'd purchase at least $100K worth of Intel Stock if it dipped 5 more percent, no questions asked. (it will go up eventualy, unless Intel flops again with the Conroe processors like it did with P4)
My prediction(I pulled this out of my ass) is that Intel will really rebound in 2011, yup, my crystal ball is working just fine. lol
jkflipflop98
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Ya, but one of us is sitting on $15B in cash. The other one of us is in debt. I wonder who will last out an extended down cycle.
Ya, if you bought Intel exacly a year ago, it would be worth about 60% of what you paid for it. Don't be a twit.
If you buy any stock based on what you read here, please let me give you my address, that way you can just send me your money. Since you will be just throwing it away anyway.
Intel and AMD are both volatile right now. Intel might be a better bet for buying right now, but be prepared for all Intel's price cuts to lower the value of the stock even more, before it goes up. Maybe a buy at $14 would be fairly safe.
You need to wait for AMD to settle out, after being overinflated from the Dell deal. But it could be in the buy category soon.
Actually AMD stock was over $35 per share way before that news came out and it has dropped ever since. Even though they had a phenomenally impressive quarter. The finance sector does not know about technology and they don't care about desktop. AMD doesn't care that much about desktop. They have said so. The money is in corporate. And opteron isn't going away in the corporate sector. It's just getting better.
This isn't the end of AMD just like Intel didn't go out of business because they introduced the netburst architecture.
Right now AMD has one advantage that Intel does not have . That is the extreme top end of the market. The market Cray is going after is exploding both here and in the EU. The new DARPA orders and the new supercomputing orders in Europe are all AMD. The new GAO regulations of computer purchases favor AMD because for the first time energy use is part of the RFP. CPU vs CPU they are pretty much even. BUT the new guidelines include the energy requirement on the motherboard and memory. Intel's norhtbridge requires 30 watts AMD none. If both use DDR2 that is a push , if you include FB-DIMM then Intel is way over AMD's DDR2. When your average sales price on a tray is $2.2 million that will cover a multitude of sins. The energy requirement is going to help HP vs Dell in the server/desktop area because Dell in the past has had about 80% of the government contract business. The new GAO guidelines flow through to the states and local governments through revenue sharing regulations. Dell whose corporate and government business is 88% of their total is now at a disadvantage in the US market when competing with HP. AMD has a 15% tax advantage in Europe due to the tax abatement with the German and Saxony governments that it can pass through to HP on sales in Europe. There will be pain for both AMD and Intel. AMD is going to enjoy a cash flow advantage because they are depreciating Fab 36 and the upgrade to Fab 38. Finacial analysts look at cash flow as well as profits. Todays depreciation expense is tomorrrows profits.
Right now Intel reminds me of two corporations in the past. GM and IBM. Both got into trouble because of management screwups on product . GM got Roger Smith(of Roger and Me fame) and IBM got Lou Gerstner. GM was at $86 with $24billion in cash and now it is $24. Cash is less than $3billion. IBM had fallen to $48 and now it is $79 with a couple of splits in between($320 adjusted). Intel's market price is not going to recover until someone takes over who commands Wall Streets respect. Does any one here really think that Otinelli has the skills of Lou Gerstner? Product isn't Intel's problem, management is. DEC if you remember them is a classic example of a company with great products and lousy management.
Right now Intel reminds me of two corporations in the past. GM and IBM. Both got into trouble because of management screwups on product . GM got Roger Smith(of Roger and Me fame) and IBM got Lou Gerstner. GM was at $86 with $24billion in cash and now it is $24. Cash is less than $3billion. IBM had fallen to $48 and now it is $79 with a couple of splits in between($320 adjusted). Intel's market price is not going to recover until someone takes over who commands Wall Streets respect. Does any one here really think that Otinelli has the skills of Lou Gerstner? Product isn't Intel's problem, management is. DEC if you remember them is a classic example of a company with great products and lousy management.
For those with nerve, hold on and wait. Intel is a definite buy, but "scared" investors fearing a price war will push down stock of both Intel and AMD a bit more. For those following Intel moves, we know that they are back on track. When Core Duo posts high sales from Conroe, Memron, Woodcrest, etc. wall streeters i.e... bandwagonners will jump on and it will be too late to catch the ride up on the stock price.
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