Microsoft Shows it is Winning ''By the Numbers''

[SAL-e]

Hi, we have argued this on other thread so I know we are not going to agree, but you have some valid challenges so I need to provide the requested information and let other people make their own mind.

[citation][nom]back_by_demand[/nom]So how many netbooks do run Windows?If you are gonna call BS on figure then you should have the balls to post your own links to disprove.

[/citation]


First, it is not me who calls this number BS. The ABIresearch does: "The exact split is 32% Linux versus 68% Windows, said Jeff Orr, an analyst at ABI, which works out to about 11 million Linux netbooks this year."

http://www.abiresearch.com/research/1003389

You need to pay for the research, but you can read summary here:

http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9140343/Linux_s_share_of_netbooks_surging_not_sagging_says_analyst?taxonomyId=89


When MS publish this 96% magic number? The beginning of 2009. What is the date of the article from Computerworld? November 4, 2009. Let's see a

In a statement, Microsoft maintained that "over 93% of worldwide small notebook PCs run Windows today.

So today in July 2010 the MS marketing boss is back on 96%!? I guess ZDnet's Robin Harris is actually right about how self-delusional MS is:

I don’t think Microsoft is deliberately lying. They just see the world differently than you and the analysts do.
Here’s what’s happening. People in the trenches knew, for example, that the Mini 9 business was 1/3rd Linux. Windows marketing knew because Dell is a big customer.
So, do you tell the boss that you’ve screwed up and Linux is gaining share at one of the world’s largest PC vendors? Nah, that’s for losers.
Instead, through the magic of market segmentation, you pull Dell’s Linux numbers out of the “small PC” market and put them in some other market - mobile Internet devices, say - until you get to the preferred “93% share” number. And you mention that you’ve “heard” that Linux returns are a lot higher, i.e. Linux isn’t competitive.
Mission accomplished. Now, you’re sucking wind in the mobile Internet device catagory, but that’s not your problem - Windows 7 Mobile will fix it - or not. Meanwhile you’ve lived to fight another day.

http://www.zdnet.com/blog/storage/linux-kicks-microsoft-back/716
[citation][nom]back_by_demand[/nom]No?Didn't think so...The whole netbook thing is a case in poibt, the first Eee PC came out and used Linux, people gobbled up the netbook idea and they sold millions, until they realised that they hated Linux. Then the next generation of netbooks came along and... golly gosh...now they nearly all run WindowsFace facts, if people didn't want Microsoft products they wouldn't keep buying them. Not to mention even the free things they provide are beating competitors in all areas.The simple truth is, right or wrong, over 90% of the world wants Microsoft.Period.[/citation]



Asus never really supported Linux. They play this card only to force MS to drop the price of Windows XP. The real versions of Linux on Netbooks are coming soon: Google ChromeOS, MeeGo (successor of Intel's Moblin and Nokia's Memo ). We are going to have this discussion again by the end of the year. Let see how MS Windows runs on ARM processor. And looks like Mark Shuttleworth is going after Apple and I think he have great ideas.

 

[back_by_demand]

How many have Linux, how many have Windows?
I do believe your stated figures of 32% Linux versus 68% Windows is worldwide. The claim of 96% Windows is for US netbooks only

OK, I am normally the first person to shout at people who think that the US is the only place in the world, even though they only have 5% of the world's population, but in this instance Microsoft have quoted a perfectly good figures but there will always be someone who doesn't like Windows who will simply piss all over the research and call it bogus.

But all that aside, when netbooks first came out, the OS of choice was Linux. Now, a couple of years later, the OS of choice is Windows and it is nothing to do with bullying of vendors as a snippet from the article here
http://www.informationweek.com/news/windows/operatingsystems/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=216402927
states the following

Microsoft's success in the netbook market has come at the expense of the open source Linux operating system, which was popular on early netbook models because of its small footprint and low cost. "Not only are people overwhelmingly buying Windows, but those that try Linux are often returning it," wrote Leblanc, noting that the United Kingdom's Car phone Warehouse dropped Linux-based netbooks after seeing return rates as high as 20%

These people have bought a machine with Linux. Hated it. Brought it back. Got Windows instead.
OK, here is an opportunity for all the doubters to have a gold-plated chance to do what Apple usually does and blame it all on the customer.
People simply need to realise that Linux is not what most people want, they want Windows. Whether that is 60% or 90%, it is a majority and not even a shrinking majority.

In most computer markets Windows usually starts with a massive over 90%+ majority and has a few % nibbled away as Linux take morsels from the fringe and the people who use that OS start to say "The end is nigh for MS" but it never is.

This is a total reverse, Linux had the over 90%+ and Windows was nowhere, so to completely turn the tables with screams of paying customers saying "I tried Linux and I hate it, give me Windows" should just say everything about the way things are.

 

[SAL-e]

As I expected you are trying to twist the data to fit your argument.
[citation][nom]back_by_demand[/nom]How many have Linux, how many have Windows?I do believe your stated figures of 32% Linux versus 68% Windows is worldwide. The claim of 96% Windows is for US netbooks only
OK, I am normally the first person to shout at people who think that the US is the only place in the world, even though they only have 5% of the world's population, but in this instance Microsoft have quoted a perfectly good figures but there will always be someone who doesn't like Windows who will simply piss all over the research and call it bogus.[/citation]
Here are the problems with your argument:
1. It is not my figures. The numbers comes from established market researcher ABI with 19 years in the business.
2. This magic number of 96% of USA netbook market comes from blog post by Mr.Brandon LeBlanc (Windows Communications Manager at Microsoft).
http://windowsteamblog.com/windows/b/windowsexperience/archive/2009/04/03/windows-on-netbook-pcs-a-year-in-review.aspx
Examine his post, all statements he made have no links to the sources.

As a result, the growth of Windows on netbook PCs* over the last year has been phenomenal. We’ve seen Windows share on these PCs in the U.S. go from under 10% of unit sales during the first half of 2008 to 96% as of February 2009, according to the latest NPD Retail Tracking Service data.

But he field to disclose that:

LeBlanc's claim that Microsoft Windows products, primarily Windows XP, run on 96 percent of netbooks might have been based on December 2008 through February 2009 numbers cited by the NPD Retail Tracking Service. While it does appear to be true that Windows XP has been gaining market share in recent months over Linux, the NPD numbers track in-store sales from brick-and-mortar retail stores, where Linux options are often not available, and do not appear to cover online sales. What's more, the NPD numbers only cover U.S. sales, where Windows predominates, while Linux is more popular in Europe and elsewhere.

Source: http://www.desktoplinux.com/news/NS3469282186.html
Also he claims that Canonical has 4 times higher return rate. No links also. But I have link from Canonical where they call it FUD: http://blog.canonical.com/?p=151

Chris Kenyon – Canonical, OEM Services
P.S Continually repeating that we ‘confirmed’ a 4x return over XP when we did nothing of the sort is really not worthy of a great company like Microsoft. If we are going to compete, let’s do it on real facts and actual statements. You’re better than that, Redmond 🙂

The main OEM vendor shipping Ubuntu is Dell. Let see what they have to say about it:

"We don't see a significant difference between the return rate for Windows versus the rate for Linux. We've been quite pleased with the stability and technical soundness of the Linux machines”

Source: At OpenSource World (formerly LinuxWorld) in San Francisco this week, Todd Finch, Dell senior product marketing manager. http://www.channelinsider.com/c/a/Linux-and-Unix/Dell-Vouches-for-Quality-of-Linux-Netbooks-592471/
Ask me to prove my statements with data. I did. Please hold MS to the same standard and ask them to provide the sources so we can see if those numbers are comparable at all.

 

[back_by_demand]

LeBlanc, his statements have no links to the figure from NPD, but you have already stated that the NPD figures are on a report that requires registration and payment.

Either way, LeBlanc didn't make the figures up, they came from an independant research company.

A just to reiterate the point a final time, it doesn't matter if the figures are 90% or 60%. The initial market share on netbooks was tiny minority around 10% which has grown at the expense of a free alternative in less than 2 years.

Linux, people just don't want it.

 

[SAL-e]

[citation][nom]back_by_demand[/nom]LeBlanc, his statements have no links to the figure from NPD, but you have already stated that the NPD figures are on a report that requires registration and payment.[/citation]The figure comes from NPD, but Mr. LeBlanc very dishonestly fails to disclose that data is for retail sells in brick-and-mortar stores only and excludes all online sells that arguably are bigger. Instead he is using this number to suggest a trend that does not exist. [citation][nom]back_by_demand[/nom]Either way, LeBlanc didn't make the figures up, they came from an independant research company.[/citation] What about the sources for other statements about the return rates, or the apology for the lie that Canonical confirmed 4x return rate? Where are the sources for the numbers quoted in this article and provided by Mr. Frank X. Shaw? [citation][nom]back_by_demand[/nom]A just to reiterate the point a final time, it doesn't matter if the figures are 90% or 60%. The initial market share on netbooks was tiny minority around 10% which has grown at the expense of a free alternative in less than 2 years.[/citation] But what actually happen?!
1.MS initially refused to offer XP for Netbooks instead insisted to sell Vista. As result ASUS was forced to use Linux.
2.After ASUS sold about 200 000 EeePCs in very short time MS recognized that they misread the market and took corrective actions.
3.First they give up the idea to retire old XP and extended the support.
4.Second they slashed the price of XP for OEMs to $5. (I remember reading this on TH.)
5.Also worked with OEM to change the specs of the Netbook. Most notably to include HDD because XP was practically useless on 4GB SSD and to use bigger screens because the XP does not look very well on 800x480. Effectively turning promising Netbook concept to crappy low-end laptop. As result creating marketing opportunity for Apple to release over-sized iPhone and to call it iPad.
[citation][nom]back_by_demand[/nom]Linux, people just don't want it.[/citation]
See I could agree with that statement if MS and you can show that worldwide MS has 96% of all sells of netbooks. But clearly ABI shows that worldwide Linux has 32% of netbook sells, but only 4% in US brick-and-mortar retail stores. This discrepancy CAN NOT be explained simply by consumer rejecting Linux. There are clearly external factors are involved. Factors like rebates from MS to retail stores, additional so called 'Market Development Funds', or gifts to store employees [1]

[1] http://www.tomshardware.com/news/windows-7-best-buy-linux,8616.html

A Best Buy employee, who happens to also be an overclock.net forum poster, recently partook in a Microsoft ExpertZone training exercise (with the incentive to be able to buy Windows 7 for $10) encountered materials from Microsoft that push certain superiorities that Windows 7 possess over Linux. While some points were valid, others were untrue.

 

[back_by_demand]

So what you are saying is that MS dropped the ball, wouldn't sell XP for netbooks, so Linux got a foothold as the majority OS in the fastest growing hardware sector in recent years.

Then when MS realised it's mistake it took what is generally see as a sad old tired OS, that is 9 years old and ran it head-to-head against a brand new OS with an entrenched foothold on the market sector.

Then overturned it.

Gotcha, understand now. Clear as crystal.

 

[SAL-e]

[citation][nom]back_by_demand[/nom]So what you are saying is that MS dropped the ball, wouldn't sell XP for netbooks, so Linux got a foothold as the majority OS in the fastest growing hardware sector in recent years.[/citation]Yes, Fact is a fact. Success of Linux on the desktop is do to MS mistake in marketing positioning. But this is normal. Even when you are the best you going to make a mistake from time to time. And this time MS made a very big and expensive mistake.[citation][nom]back_by_demand[/nom]Then when MS realised it's mistake it took what is generally see as a sad old tired OS, that is 9 years old and ran it head-to-head against...[/citation]Well, they (MS) had brand new OS (Vista), but it didn't run very well at all. Many Windows users rejected and stayed with 9 y.o. XP. Not only on the netbooks, but on notebooks and desktops also. This one was consumer rejection.[citation][nom]back_by_demand[/nom]... a brand new OS with an entrenched foothold on the market sector.Then overturned it.[/citation]LOL You just made my day. Thank you for the good morning laugh! LOL. Let me see. Asus EeePC was shipped with probably the most stagnated Linux distribution at that time called Xandros and without hiring single Linux engineer by Asus. And saying that Linux was "entrenched"?! LOL. What a nightmare you and MS had, seeing Linux shipped on 200 000 EeePC 701!
And Yes, recent success of MS against poorly executed Linux deployments from ASUS and MSI is nothing to brag about it. Clearly Dell did much better job by going to Canonical and getting Ubuntu on their netbooks. Remember Dell had and still have very close relationships with Red Had, but they know that Red Had is not interested to sell their distribution on the desktop. I just can't wait to see what Google will do with their Chrome OS with hardware specially design for the task. How outdated all PCs would look like when you press the button and your system is fully operational and connected in 5 seconds. I hope that MS has something to compete with, otherwise it would be really bad days for MS share holders.

 

[back_by_demand]

How many Dell netbooks have Redhat and how many Dell netbooks use Windows?

If it is more than 50% Windows then I think we can call that a Windows win. Anyone who can push a pay-for software over a free software, which brags so hard about being superior is either not marketing itself very well or isn't that good to begin with.

Face facts - no one wants Linux.

 

[SAL-e]

[citation][nom]back_by_demand[/nom]How many Dell netbooks have Redhat and how many Dell netbooks use Windows?[/citation]
LOL. What did you ask me?! Did you actually read anything I wrote? I just told you that Redhat does not have and does not plan to have desktop version of Linux for netbooks! They are going after Enterprise server market and they are very successful at that. Redhat does not care about desktop or netbook market.
[citation][nom]back_by_demand[/nom]If it is more than 50% Windows then I think we can call that a Windows win. Anyone who can push a pay-for software over a free software, which brags so hard about being superior is either not marketing itself very well or isn't that good to begin with.[/citation]Tell that to all manufactures of NAS, media players, TVs and etc. Practically all of them are running embedded Linux. Do you have TiVo at home? If you do, you are using Linux every time you press that 'play' button on your remote.
[citation][nom]back_by_demand[/nom]Face facts - no one wants Linux.[/citation]
And according to ABI, 11 million people who purchased netbooks in 2009 worldwide disagree with you! Or about 1/3 of all.
This argument reminds me the Steve Ballmer's argument in 2007 why iPhone will fail and will make no dent in MS dominant position in mobile space!
Remember that: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=So7qrFO_p44&feature=player_embedded
Who is laughing now?! Based on latest Gartner research in 1Q10 "Microsoft Windows Mobile" has only 6.8% down from 10.2% in 1Q09. Just to put in prospective in same time: iPhone OS went from 10.5% to 15.4%, Android - from 1.6% to 9.6%, other Linux based phones - from 7.0% to 3.7%.
http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=1372013

 

[back_by_demand]

Microsoft Shows it is Winning ''By the Numbers''

In the netbook market, it has more than 50%, but more importantly, more than anyone else put together.
That's winning.
You can't dress it up any easier than that.

 

[SAL-e]

[citation][nom]back_by_demand[/nom]In the netbook market, it has more than 50%, but more importantly, more than anyone else put together.That's winning.You can't dress it up any easier than that.[/citation]
As I sad at the beginning I did not expect to change your mind and we will have to agree to disagree! I can except your position that as long they have 50% of the market they are winning.
My position is that they are sitting on their laurels for far too long. They could have dominated the netbook market exactly the same way the dominated Desktop market. But they made a mistake and lost 30%. Now instead of competing with better product they are fudging market numbers to appear like they still have it. This is losers thinking and actions so on my book MS is losing right now. Can they change and be back in the game. Sure. And I hope they do so.

But thank you for keeping our debate civil and I do appreciate that. Good luck to you and we will 'meet' again.

 

[back_by_demand]

[citation][nom]SAL-e[/nom]But thank you for keeping our debate civil and I do appreciate that. Good luck to you and we will 'meet' again.[/citation]
Yeah, I noticed that too, lots of people in here that as soon as they dont agree with you start childish name-calling and marking down -1.

I think maybe the next point for MS to try and get a "win" is the tablet sector. Apple is claiming the high ground and a projected 7 million sales in 2010 is a lot more than 200,000 netbooks and to top that we have Android and WebOS. Once MS (re)enters the market on the current generation of tablets we will see how long it takes till someone cries number-fudging when MS takes over 50% of the market there too.
If the annouced Asus EP121 delivers half of what it promises in 2011 then expect to see other companies flock to Windows and other companies, that this time really did have an entrenched position, be returned to the minority sector by the world's largest and most successful software company.

 

[SAL-e]

[citation][nom]back_by_demand[/nom]Yeah, I noticed that too, lots of people in here that as soon as they dont agree with you start childish name-calling and marking down -1.[/citation]I can tolerate some display of passion combined with luck of skills in debates, but here sometimes it gets out of control way to quickly especially when debate is Apple vs MS vs Linux.[citation][nom]back_by_demand[/nom]I think maybe the next point for MS to try and get a "win" is the tablet sector. Apple is claiming the high ground and a projected 7 million sales in 2010 is a lot more than 200,000 netbooks and to top that we have Android and WebOS. Once MS (re)enters the market on the current generation of tablets we will see how long it takes till someone cries number-fudging when MS takes over 50% of the market there too.[/citation]Looks like MS is not very interested of doing this at this moment. I don't believe that MS is making the same mistake as they did with introduction of the Netbooks. This time around they just left this segment in order to focus on phone market. And I think they have the right idea. Tablets look very interesting, but I find them quite unnatural for extended use. Phone on other hand is in your pocket at all time. I think the phone market would be several time more bigger then tablet market. And sitting on the side line in phone business is not an option for MS.
[citation][nom]back_by_demand[/nom]If the annouced Asus EP121 delivers half of what it promises in 2011 then expect to see other companies flock to Windows and other companies, that this time really did have an entrenched position, be returned to the minority sector by the world's largest and most successful software company.[/citation]I have not seen it my self, but first demos and info I have looks a bit lame. Running old tired Windows CE I think is mistake. I hope that they are using CE only until new code-base of WP7 is out. I think MS needs to repeat what they did with NT. The had MS-DOS and kept it around for some time while they got the NT ready for prime time.
And yes MS arguably is the most successful software company, but lately they have lost a focus and I think they let their lawyers and managers to guide the company instead of the engineers. And they have a lot of unused talent at the moment. Using the words of Peter Drucker: "Management is doing things right; leadership is doing the right things." Right now looks like MS is doing things right, but manages to miss doing the right thing.

 

[Guest]

I don't even know why MS even bothers taking pokes at Linux. Most people who develop/use Linux probably don't even notice let alone care because the importance of "market share" is irrelevant to the Linux and open-source community.

 

[SAL-e]

[citation][nom]yghgfhgfghf[/nom]I don't even know why MS even bothers taking pokes at Linux. Most people who develop/use Linux probably don't even notice let alone care because the importance of "market share" is irrelevant to the Linux and open-source community.[/citation]
The Linux is needing the "market share", big enough, to force the hardware vendors and other ISV to support the open-source community either by providing drivers and software or documentation that allows the open-source programmers to write good drivers. Reverse engineering is ok, but takes too much time and effort and many time it doesn't pay-off.
Linux is strategic thread for MS business model. They know it and do anything in their power to stop the Linux progress. They have recognized this as far as 1998.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halloween_Documents