Microsoft's Ray Ozzie Sees "Post-PC" World

[jellico]

[citation][nom]thechief73[/nom]I dont know about everyone else but I am kinda getting tired of big shot tech people saying PC's are dying or everything will be wireless cloud computing and cloud based software, I agree with the cloud storage and software to an extent but I do not think it will be ubiquitous.[/citation]
I hear you! The problem with prognostication is that it's really easy to look at a straight road where you can see a mile ahead and predict it will keep going in the same direction. But nobody every predicts the forks in the road or the sudden and sharp curves. More often than not, the future is shaped by innovation; and very often, innovation is based upon unexpected discovery.

Penicillin was an accidental discovery and ushered us into a whole new age of medicine. The microwave oven was an accidental discovery that revolutionarily changed how we think of food. Many of the discoveries that shaped the future semiconductor industry are the result of accidental discoveries as scientists played with gallium, arsenide, and silicon. Granted, most accidental discoveries are not this monumental. Some are much more simple, like the discovery behind the principle for the inkjet printer which happened when an engineer at Canon accidently set his hot soldering iron on his pen and observed ink jetting out of the pen's point a few moments later. The point is that NONE of these things were foreseen, and yet they had a significant impact on the shape of the future that followed.

 

[philologos]

I'm afraid this would restructure our digital computing lives for the benefit of commercial interests. I have nightmares in which the internet is superseded by an all-pervading app store.

 

[f-14]

lucy in the sky with diamonds, this guy seems to have forgotten about drugs, and how their sales and use is skyrocketing faster then pc sales. pretty soon there won't be any one left capable of clouding anything except the air infront of their face.
he needs to lay off the crack pipe and pcp. personal computing will always be around and it will get smaller and mobile. i can't wait for the day i can play crisis 15 on a pair of sunglasses using only my eyes and thought impulses on an intel/amd uranium proccessor like will wheaton and ashley judd did on that star trek episode
and that's when i'm not using a mainframe holodeck 😛
point is the cloud can not be every where in the universe.
i do know that if the cloud is microsoft made it will always be crashing!

 

[dark_lord69]

[citation][nom]theroguex[/nom]Can I run Crysis from the cloud on a little dummy box?Nope.Case closed.[/citation]

LOL, true..
But someday you will be able to and that is what he is refering to.

 

[MxM]

"Cloud computing" for now is just fancy word for storage on server instead of your computer. And why would that be an end to PC? PC = Personal Computer, means that it is personal (i.e. have perpendiculars to communicate with you - keyboard, screen and such) and computing, means that it precess data somehow. Whether the data stored on this device or somewhere in the cloud is COMPLETELY irrelevant.

PC will stay for gaming, work and communications like e-mail (keyboard is just much more convenient than a touch screen). We will have many other iPad like devices, but they will complement, not replace PC.

 

[hoof_hearted]

I agree with him, but more specifically, I see technologies such as blade servers, NAS storage devices, IPV6, fiber, wireless advancements and mobile devices being the details of his vision.

 

[grieve]

I think with the direction smart phones have gone and the power they suddenly possess that the future is mobile PC in your pocket (phones)

Imagine:
My smart phone bluetooths to my monitor @ home and in the office and also connects to my mouse and keyboard.
I walk into the room, my mobile divice now IS my pc....

The same for my car, it already pics up my call when i enter the car but why not have it connect to the monitor and allow internet/streaming ect as well. why not have a touch screen for notes ect.?

This isnt exactly far fetched and i think is the future of mobile phones. There is no reason in the ext 5-10 years our phones can't do everything our PC's presently do. (even crysis!)

 

[grieve]

[citation][nom]theroguex[/nom]Can I run Crysis from the cloud on a little dummy box?Nope.Case closed.[/citation]
not yet, case opened.

 

[theroguex]

[citation][nom]grieve[/nom]not yet, case opened.[/citation]

Until we have considerably higher-bandwidth, lower-latency, super-stable internet connections as standard features to most homes, this case will remain closed. You want proof? Try to play Crysis via OnLive.

 

[tommysch]

SaaS: trying to enslave you since the 90s!

 

[millerm84]

Just some thoughts about the general feelings in this tread:

1. The idea that cloud computing is somehow less secure then an internet connected home server is dubious logic at best. The best commercial security software and appliances in the world are exploitable, so if privacy is an issue unplug or accept the fact that anyone at anytime can access your data in the cloud and in your home.

2. Tablets today are no where near as powerful as a desktop, however, they are exponentially more powerful then the super-computers of the 70's and 80's. In less then 5-7 years tablets and phones will be as powerful as today's computers and 10-15 years may be emulating up 64 cores and on par for any desktop computer at that time. 25 years ago everyone knew that mainframes and terminals would last forever now we laugh when we encounter that antiquated technology. Imagine a world where you lay your tablet on a wireless dock which charges it, ports its video to an appropriate sized monitor and allowed keyboard and mouse function that isn't so far fetched for desktop replacement.

3. Lastly the only real impediment to this kind of infrastructure is the infrastructure itself. This kind of idea requires a new "always on" infrastructure one that is available to the user at anytime anywhere. The sad part of this is cell phone companies are at the forefront of this kind of infrastructure where as the ISPs are moving against an all you can consume model.

 

[orionite]

Can I run Crysis from the cloud on a little dummy box?Nope.Case closed.

Actually, you can. I have not played crysis, but UT, Borderlands and Just Cause on Onlive and had no issues
All you folks frothing at the mouth because someone says there will be a post-pc era: Pathetic. So many uninformed statements, like "I am almost certain that will not be cheaper than today's technology" or "PC will stay for gaming, work and communications like e-mail" or ""Cloud computing" for now is just fancy word for storage on server"...

He is talking about a shift that compares to moving away form mainframes. What you call PC now (and by that you mean the pimped up box under your table, the monitor, keyboard and mouse) will be something different in the future. If you could have the same power and comfortable and efficient I/O in a portable device, wouldn't you? And he's not claiming PC's are irrelevant by xmas 2011. Jeez, take of your damn blinders!

 

[LORD_ORION]

They've been saying this for a least a decade now.

PC / Portable device convergence has turned out more like the portable devices are finally catching up, and people will use both a PC and a portable device. Not a portable device exclusively.

 

[MasterM40]

i prefer my pc dont need clouds being able to track everything i do

 

[wildwell]

He must have said this just after the public announcement of his retiring... but before the announcement of his new job with Google. 😉

 

[wildwell]

..... I wonder where his retirement stock is.

 

[soundping]

More anti-Microsoft PC propaganda.

 

[sceen311]

Post-PC? I think he means Post-Desktop. If anything we have seen, and will see an Increase in "Personal Computing,"
Maybe he means it will be less personal when everyone is networked together and the Government wont have to respect the privacy of the transmission of your data across said network. that must of been what he meant.

 

[Guest]

Information cloud = Give all your personal information to intelligencia and continue living "life" as an ignorant idiot

 

[Guest]

Having worked for Ray in the past, let me say at first, I expected more of a profound statement from a brilliant programmer and leader... then I realized hes actually right on the nose again, and time will prove it.
More importantly he knows when to exit a company that is a sinking ship (Lotus, Grove Networks) and now Microsoft.
Thanks Ray for the contributions to the computing world!