[SOLVED] Millions To Shift From PC To Console Gaming By 2022, Says Research

spdragoo

Splendid
Herald
Problems with the conclusions from JPR:

  1. Moore's Law Slows to a Crawl. Technically, yes, we've been seeing this to some extent on the PC's side. However, while the increase in per-core speeds have slowed down quite a bit, we have seen other improvements in PC hardware that show continued performance improvement: additional cores on a CPU; virtual cores; continued increases in bus/data transfer speeds; faster RAM; faster & larger storage drives; & so forth. However, the biggest problem I have with this claim is simple: Consoles are subject to the same Moore's Law limitations. Note, for example, that the last generation or 2 of consoles have all used PC-grade components (mostly from AMD). They might be customized versions, but they've been based on the same hardware architecture used in PC systems. You can't say that 1 variant has a limitation yet imply that the other variations don't have the same limitation, when they're all based on the same engineering & physics principles.
  2. High GPU prices. At face value, yes, it's a valid complaint that the combination of cryptomining craze & AMD's focus on the mainstream gaming sector (leaving nVidia to -- for now -- hold the high-end crown) has meant higher component prices. However, what this ignores is the disparity between PC graphics hardware & console graphics hardware. What's considered "mainstream" for gaming resolution in PCs (1080p/60-144Hz) is considered "high-end" for consoles (as especially seen in console games in recent years that were locked at 30FPS or even 60FPS, no matter what your TV"s resolution actually was). Given a console & a PC GPU from the same generation, the console's maximum graphics for gameplay are inferior to the PC (in terms of maximum resolution, maximum FPS, or both), & is especially noticeable in FPS games (where "competition" players on PCs shoot for 1080p/144FPS gameplay that, in many cases, does not require top-tier GPUs to achieve). And now that the cryptomining craze is passing by, GPU prices are already dropping down significantly -- as pointed out in recent reviews (here & on other sites) of the GTX 1650, a number of the mainstream GPUs such as the RX 570/580 are now under $200 USD, with even the GTX 1060 & 1660 coming in at under $250 USD. The only time you really see expensive GPU prices is in the true top-tier area...where nVidia is charging a ton of bucks for the privilege of being an "early adopter" of ray-tracing capability.
  3. Game streaming on smart TVs. First off, they shouldn't have started off saying that both PC & high-end console gamers would be tempted to switch over to a streaming-only platform, then turn around & lump the console gamers in with the streaming-only players. You can't have it both ways. Second, you may not need top-tier graphics capability to run a streaming-only service, but I can just about guarantee that you'll want as fast of a broadband connection as possible...& despite some companies offering Gigabit or faster connections to consumers around the world, the fact is that those offerings are extremely limited in their available markets, let alone their penetration in those markets. For the vast majority of consumers, a 100Mbps broadband connection is the most common "fastest" tier available to them. Heck, there's still a significant minority of consumers out there that are stuck with DSL connections, or have to rely on satellite broadband, because there just aren't any ground wires in their areas. And last time I checked, the fastest "average" connection for a country was still under 50Mbps. Beyond this limitation, however, is the issue with processing the data. Sure, Google Stadia (or other services) might handle the graphics processing & a lot of the CPU processing...on their side. But sending that data to you over a broadband connection isn't like sending a rendered game from your GPU to your monitor. Once that data hits your system, it will need to be reprocessed before being displayed. And no, that's not going to be as simple as displaying the video feed from a cable program or streaming service like Netflix, because you're not just watching a video feed; it's a 2-way data stream that's sending your inputs back to the server to be processed. And that brings up, of course, how your typical smart TV is going to be able to receive control inputs on your side. Sure, they generally have a USB port on them...for attaching a flash drive to look at photos/saved videos, but I highly doubt a smart TV will know what to do with a joystick or gamepad plugged into that port. And good luck with the standard keyboard/mouse style of gameplay, which requires two USB ports on a PC. If anything, I would expect gaming streaming services to see a rise in PC sales, because assuming you can actually get by with even a mediocre PC system, that means you can buy a cheap "home" PC (minimal RAMm
 
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SteveRNG

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Three words: Mouse and Keyboard
I've been a PC gamer for ..ever. I've never gotten into consoles because I use a mouse and keyboard for almost every game except action games (like the Arkham series) where I use an Xbox controller. Now that I'm old and a parent and don't game 20 hours a week anymore, I'd be more inclined to buy a console if they completely implemented keyboard and mouse support.

Of course, then again I have my HOTAS for simulations, so that still might not push me over the edge. :)
 

USAFRet

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"Chances are that most of those who will make the switch from PC gaming to console/cloud gaming will be people who weren’t into building high-end gaming rigs in the first place "

This is just like:
'Tablets are going to take over from PC sales'
(later)
'Tablet sales slowing down'
 
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AnimeMania

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This is the major factors to consider, Game streaming requires zero to low commitment to hardware and a huge requirement for high speed internet. PC gaming requires a huge commitment hardware and zero to low requirement for high speed internet.

I think there are 2 important considerations that can sway this in either direction.
Net Neutrality might determine the speed at which your internet traffic flows and which company's pipeline is faster than another.
You Internet provider, will they add data caps, charge high prices when you use large amounts of data, provide high bandwidth internet at reasonable prices, create high bandwidth internet in locations that currently are under represented.

If I had to guess, I predict the Internet providers are going to get greedy and game streaming, along with mass-market 4K video streaming is not going to become main stream. Game streaming services are going to focus on mainstream titles and ignore the indie game titles where a lot of innovation is occurring.
 

spdragoo

Splendid
Herald
Problems with the conclusions from JPR:

  1. Moore's Law Slows to a Crawl. Technically, yes, we've been seeing this to some extent on the PC's side. However, while the increase in per-core speeds have slowed down quite a bit, we have seen other improvements in PC hardware that show continued performance improvement: additional cores on a CPU; virtual cores; continued increases in bus/data transfer speeds; faster RAM; faster & larger storage drives; & so forth. However, the biggest problem I have with this claim is simple: Consoles are subject to the same Moore's Law limitations. Note, for example, that the last generation or 2 of consoles have all used PC-grade components (mostly from AMD). They might be customized versions, but they've been based on the same hardware architecture used in PC systems. You can't say that 1 variant has a limitation yet imply that the other variations don't have the same limitation, when they're all based on the same engineering & physics principles.
  2. High GPU prices. At face value, yes, it's a valid complaint that the combination of cryptomining craze & AMD's focus on the mainstream gaming sector (leaving nVidia to -- for now -- hold the high-end crown) has meant higher component prices. However, what this ignores is the disparity between PC graphics hardware & console graphics hardware. What's considered "mainstream" for gaming resolution in PCs (1080p/60-144Hz) is considered "high-end" for consoles (as especially seen in console games in recent years that were locked at 30FPS or even 60FPS, no matter what your TV"s resolution actually was). Given a console & a PC GPU from the same generation, the console's maximum graphics for gameplay are inferior to the PC (in terms of maximum resolution, maximum FPS, or both), & is especially noticeable in FPS games (where "competition" players on PCs shoot for 1080p/144FPS gameplay that, in many cases, does not require top-tier GPUs to achieve). And now that the cryptomining craze is passing by, GPU prices are already dropping down significantly -- as pointed out in recent reviews (here & on other sites) of the GTX 1650, a number of the mainstream GPUs such as the RX 570/580 are now under $200 USD, with even the GTX 1060 & 1660 coming in at under $250 USD. The only time you really see expensive GPU prices is in the true top-tier area...where nVidia is charging a ton of bucks for the privilege of being an "early adopter" of ray-tracing capability.
  3. Game streaming on smart TVs. First off, they shouldn't have started off saying that both PC & high-end console gamers would be tempted to switch over to a streaming-only platform, then turn around & lump the console gamers in with the streaming-only players. You can't have it both ways. Second, you may not need top-tier graphics capability to run a streaming-only service, but I can just about guarantee that you'll want as fast of a broadband connection as possible...& despite some companies offering Gigabit or faster connections to consumers around the world, the fact is that those offerings are extremely limited in their available markets, let alone their penetration in those markets. For the vast majority of consumers, a 100Mbps broadband connection is the most common "fastest" tier available to them. Heck, there's still a significant minority of consumers out there that are stuck with DSL connections, or have to rely on satellite broadband, because there just aren't any ground wires in their areas. And last time I checked, the fastest "average" connection for a country was still under 50Mbps. Beyond this limitation, however, is the issue with processing the data. Sure, Google Stadia (or other services) might handle the graphics processing & a lot of the CPU processing...on their side. But sending that data to you over a broadband connection isn't like sending a rendered game from your GPU to your monitor. Once that data hits your system, it will need to be reprocessed before being displayed. And no, that's not going to be as simple as displaying the video feed from a cable program or streaming service like Netflix, because you're not just watching a video feed; it's a 2-way data stream that's sending your inputs back to the server to be processed. And that brings up, of course, how your typical smart TV is going to be able to receive control inputs on your side. Sure, they generally have a USB port on them...for attaching a flash drive to look at photos/saved videos, but I highly doubt a smart TV will know what to do with a joystick or gamepad plugged into that port. And good luck with the standard keyboard/mouse style of gameplay, which requires two USB ports on a PC. If anything, I would expect gaming streaming services to see a rise in PC sales, because assuming you can actually get by with even a mediocre PC system, that means you can buy a cheap "home" PC (minimal RAMm
 
Reactions: compprob237

spdragoo

Splendid
Herald
This is the major factors to consider, Game streaming requires zero to low commitment to hardware and a huge requirement for high speed internet. PC gaming requires a huge commitment hardware and zero to low requirement for high speed internet.

I think there are 2 important considerations that can sway this in either direction.
Net Neutrality might determine the speed at which your internet traffic flows and which company's pipeline is faster than another.
You Internet provider, will they add data caps, charge high prices when you use large amounts of data, provide high bandwidth internet at reasonable prices, create high bandwidth internet in locations that currently are under represented.

If I had to guess, I predict the Internet providers are going to get greedy and game streaming, along with mass-market 4K video streaming is not going to become main stream. Game streaming services are going to focus on mainstream titles and ignore the indie game titles where a lot of innovation is occurring.
Well, Cox is already introducing it (read here): an extra $15USD/month to "guarantee" less lag, jitter & ping spikes... & it will only take effect on the connection for online gaming (so apparently it isn't even just a speed boost, but rather "optimization" of your connection).
 

makkara

Honorable
May 5, 2013
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1. Moore’s Law
This is just very old observation on increasing CPU performance and dosnt take into account the multicore design of todays CPUs. Also high end PC will always have superior specs to consoles, because consoles are made from mid to low tier custom PC hardware.
With futures multi chip designs, performance is going to double and more.
= Dose not make me want to switch to console.

2. High GPU Prices Could Negatively Affect PC Gaming
Thats why there are multiple cards with different prices, so u can buy the card u can afford. If u buy card with 300$ and couple of years later buy card with 300$ again and get better performance, where is the problem?
= Dose not make me want to switch to console.

3. Game Streaming On Smart TVs
Latency, latency, latency, streaming will not be better than playing on hardware. Also PC is not just for gaming. Also u could just use the old PC to play streamed games and not buy new console for it.
= Dose not make me want to switch to console.
 
And of course, they primarily focused this argument on supposedly low sales of Crysis, a game that EA announced had sold over a million copies a little over a month later. It's possible that those were copies sold to retailers, since these would have been mainly physical copies at a time when many were starting to transition to online distribution, as the game didn't come to Steam until the following year, but it seems like worldwide sales for the game were likely decent enough.

Plus, the game had abnormally high system requirements, and wouldn't run all that smoothly even on high-end hardware of the day, which likely impacted initial sales. In some ways, Crytek was probably treating the game as a tech demo to show off what their game engine could do for future titles, hoping to license it to other studios. Even if initial sales might not have been as great as some console games, the game undoubtedly sold well in the years that followed, as Crysis became something of a de facto benchmark to measure PC hardware performance by.

As for Unreal Tournament III, many simply considered it to not be quite as good as prior installments in the series, or at least to not do enough new to justify buying another rendition of the game. And while it wasn't nearly as graphically demanding as Crysis, it was a lot more demanding than prior installments, which for a competitive shooter could turn many away.

Back to this article, I'll just quote what I wrote about game streaming in another thread yesterday...

...As for Stadia, it's yet another game streaming service, which have been around for years, and have never really caught on, and in some cases have gone out of business, leaving their customers without their games, or even save files. The biggest issues with streaming games tend to be latency and image quality, which can both be pretty poor relative to playing games natively. Maybe google can do better than the other companies that have failed in the past, due their large number of server locations and resources, but I wouldn't count on the experience being as good as playing games on even a lower-end gaming PC. Unless you live right near an urban center where they have servers, expect input lag to be poor. Also expect 1080p gaming to probably look more like 720p in motion.
Game streaming will likely become more common as internet connections improve, but I don't see PC gamers jumping ship en masse for game streaming anytime soon. If anything, it seems like console or smartphone gamers would be more prone to trying game streaming services.
 

OneFai

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I already switched over a decade or so ago and never looked back. No need. Consol graphics and performance are absolutely amazing and they are good enough and only getting better and better.

I feel sorry for people who have to keep dumping money into a system to play games it’s so foolish and wasteful to waste 300 to $600 on a video card every few yrs 😂

I buy a console, play the snot out of it until the new ones come out and then get a new one and that’s what every 6 to 10 years?

Plus I can just download a game and start playing no driver updates no audio cutting out no stuttering no BS just full on gaming

Closed systems are far better to play games on then open systems that’s why I hate PC gaming— too much <mod edit>
 
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Game streaming isn’t going to become viable until everybody has super fast fiber to their house and everywhere else so the entire network is going to have to be super fast with extremely low latencies. Not to mention the backend’s are going to have to be extremely well-built out
 

nobspls

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Mar 14, 2018
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What does moore's law slowing to crawl got to do with people switching to game streaming or even consoles? Look PC gamer gamed on hercules monochrome screen on PCXT and 286s when you got cuter more colorful NES and Segas. People will game where the good game content is, and where they can game the way they prefer.

Now tell we why would PC gamers prefer streamed gaming content or console/smart TV content? Tell me why PC gamer would be the cow thats milked for being their cash cow because that would be preference? And how the hell does moore's law matter in the gamer's preference here?

If there was an open source platform in the form factor of a console with all the flexibility of a PC and open to upgrades like a PC (heck it might as well be a PC), I can see PC gamers switching, but there is be no massive profits for the content streams or console builders then, so why would something like that happen?

Really what is the motivation for stupid so called analyst to put up crap like this?
 

USAFRet

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Really what is the motivation for stupid so called analyst to put up crap like this?
The motivation is...an article needed to be written.
You could discover other "stats" and write the same number of words, from from any viewpoint you want.
"Console sales to slow by 2022" (based on the death of one particular console)
or
"The advent of 3D TVs will dominate computer gaming" (3D tv is dead. Again.)
or
"If you're not in VR yet, you're missing out" (Second Life, anyone?)
 
Apr 26, 2019
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Wouldn't this just make PC gaming more prevalent? Even less need to upgrade your PC than before. And why would a PC gamer change, when they got all their games and friends on PC? Unless Steam/origin/uplay allows transfer of games to consoles, I don't see a lot of PC gamers change over.

I think a lot of people overestimate how often a PC needs upgrade anyways, atleast for 1080p60fps gaming. Which is the most normal resolution.
 

bigdragon

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I think JPR's conclusion is correct, but some of their reasons are not. First, Moore's Law hasn't been a thing on PC in a long time. A resurgent AMD finally pushed CPU technology and performance forward -- not some law turned marketing BS. Second, game streaming is constrained by ISPs. Relatively few gamers may use products in that space before ISPs start looking to get extra money. Game streaming is self-limiting due to infrastructure limitations and operator greed.

JPR seems to be right on the money when it comes to high GPU prices. Nvidia is insane. It is much more economical to buy a console than a new GPU, and why bother with the GPU when the PC games are mostly console ports? Adding insult to injury: most PC games are now live services that lack the customization, flexibility, and user content (includes mods) that made PC gaming so great compared to console titles. We now have PC live service games like Grand Theft Auto where you're expected to dump tons of real money into Shark Cards to legitimately purchase in-game content rather than engaging in the game's namesake thievery! Cheat in a game all about illicit acts -- get banned. What is this insanity?!

I think JPR missed out on "decline of MOBA games." MOBAs don't translate well to controllers. The more MOBAs around, the more PC gamers there will be. FPS games translate to controllers much better -- BR games can readily make the jump to consoles. Why pay the Nvidia and Intel taxes when you can just get a PS4 or Switch?
 

spdragoo

Splendid
Herald
I already switched over a decade or so ago and never looked back. No need. Consol graphics and performance are absolutely amazing and they are good enough and only getting better and better.

I feel sorry for people who have to keep dumping money into a system to play games it’s so foolish and wasteful to waste 300 to $600 on a video card every few yrs 😂

I buy a console, play the snot out of it until the new ones come out and then get a new one and that’s what every 6 to 10 years?

Plus I can just download a game and start playing no driver updates no audio cutting out no stuttering no BS just full on gaming

Closed systems are far better to play games on then open systems that’s why I hate PC gaming— too much <mod edit>
Not every player (console or otherwise) bases their game selections strictly on how "amazing" or "good enough" the graphics are -- if that were the case, Minecraft wouldn't be so popular. Besides, PC graphics get "better and better" at the same rate as console graphics -- & in same cases, actually improve much more quickly, as a majority of console games get locked at 60 FPS or less no matter the resolution. 60FPS@1080p isn't going to look as good as 120FPS@1080p.

Personally, I can't remember when I've paid even $300, let alone $600, for a single GPU. But what I think you're missing on the PC "upgrade cycle" is that you don't have to replace your system completely. Not counting my parents' models, I've been a PC owner since 1998... & during that time I've done a complete system replacement twice. That's about 6-7 years between replacement. And thanks to VMs, GOG, & other options from the developers (independent of the PC manufacturers), I can still play games from 1998 (or even earlier), & have a much larger library selection available than the console manufacturers provide.

And despite AMD's supposedly bad reputation for drivers, I can't remember the last time I had to update my drivers just to play a game. But while I have had to wait to play a game until it's patched, I've also seen my nephews wait just as long for their consoles to download a patch before they can start playing a game. So much for console superiority, eh?
 
Feb 15, 2019
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I
I think a lot of people overestimate how often a PC needs upgrade anyways, atleast for 1080p60fps gaming. Which is the most normal resolution.
I'm using a 2009 cpu (phenom x4) with a 2014 ssd & gpu (750ti)... I'll probably replace the system this year, more due to it starting to be unreliable than incapable. I need a pc for work anyway so it's as easy to financially justify adding a GPU to the PC as a console to the TV, even if I didn't already have a collection or have family competing for the TV. Anyone know of a current console costing about what a 570 does that has a comparable range and quality of games?
 
Apr 26, 2019
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I

I'm using a 2009 cpu (phenom x4) with a 2014 ssd & gpu (750ti)... I'll probably replace the system this year, more due to it starting to be unreliable than incapable. I need a pc for work anyway so it's as easy to financially justify adding a GPU to the PC as a console to the TV, even if I didn't already have a collection or have family competing for the TV. Anyone know of a current console costing about what a 570 does that has a comparable range and quality of games?
Feel you, the CPU in my desktop is a fx-6300, and it have run mostly fine (though with a newer graphiic card), gonna upgrade the CPU/etc this year. Though have mostly been playing on a gaming laptop since I haven't had the space to take the desktop with me (also nice with the ease of transport)

I think JPR's conclusion is correct, but some of their reasons are not. First, Moore's Law hasn't been a thing on PC in a long time. A resurgent AMD finally pushed CPU technology and performance forward -- not some law turned marketing BS. Second, game streaming is constrained by ISPs. Relatively few gamers may use products in that space before ISPs start looking to get extra money. Game streaming is self-limiting due to infrastructure limitations and operator greed.

JPR seems to be right on the money when it comes to high GPU prices. Nvidia is insane. It is much more economical to buy a console than a new GPU, and why bother with the GPU when the PC games are mostly console ports? Adding insult to injury: most PC games are now live services that lack the customization, flexibility, and user content (includes mods) that made PC gaming so great compared to console titles. We now have PC live service games like Grand Theft Auto where you're expected to dump tons of real money into Shark Cards to legitimately purchase in-game content rather than engaging in the game's namesake thievery! Cheat in a game all about illicit acts -- get banned. What is this insanity?!

I think JPR missed out on "decline of MOBA games." MOBAs don't translate well to controllers. The more MOBAs around, the more PC gamers there will be. FPS games translate to controllers much better -- BR games can readily make the jump to consoles. Why pay the Nvidia and Intel taxes when you can just get a PS4 or Switch?
Isn't GPU prices on it's way down to a more reasonable level? and that's also only if you are talking about the mid-to-high level GPUs. The lower ones isn't that impacted, and it's not necessary with a new or mid+ GPU anymore (at 1080p). Like my laptops 1060 is running quite nicely on 1440p (not maxed, but still nicely), and I honestly can't see a reason to upgrade except for better graphics and the fun of upgrading.

On the other side, I can't see many PC players rejoice over going to paid "internet access"/multiplayer in addition to already paid mtx content. Though the opinion article posted today does give impression I belive.
Though the mod point is a legit issue, atleast for MP games.

Decline of MOBA I agree (if it changes to console) a legit reason. Though the question is how long will BR be popular, and will the next big thing have good console controlls (though a lot of PC gamers will disagree with shooters having good controlls on consoles).

Though all in all it's really not gonna affect me much anyways. Personally I don't wanna switch to controller, there's some PC games I won't give up (dota and strategy games) and also Steam friends.
 
May 11, 2019
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Hello! I specially registered to comment one post, but first I will say that I can be one who could switch to next gen console. I own a bit out dated PC - i5-4690 without K, 8 GB DDR3 RAM, RX 580 8 GB and PS4 Pro.

...
2. High GPU Prices Could Negatively Affect PC Gaming
Thats why there are multiple cards with different prices, so u can buy the card u can afford. If u buy card with 300$ and couple of years later buy card with 300$ again and get better performance, where is the problem?
= Dose not make me want to switch to console.
...
But I will give you another view - buy a console for those 300$ and after few years buy a lot of games for 300$ at discount! No chasing for hardware! Heh how about that?
 

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